00:00We have a bomb cyclone and we have I think what will be a blizzard
00:05along the Carolina coast, southeast Virginia and perhaps New England.
00:10As we head into the weekend, we're going to be looking at a powerful storm that's going to be
00:15taking shape here. I wanted to find those two though. What is a bomb cyclone? It's a low pressure
00:20system that undergoes rapid strengthening. The barometric pressure falls.
00:25At least 24 millibars in 24 hours. That's what we're going to see in this.
00:30This is going to be a full-fledged nor'easter, but that's a bomb cyclone. Now this
00:35is also going to produce a blizzard in a few areas here. What's a blizzard? Well,
00:40a quarter of a mile visibility in...
00:45in snow or blowing snow and you have to have 35 mile per hour...
00:50winds either gusts or sustains. All of these conditions must last...
00:55at least three hours. I think blizzard criteria is going to be met as well.
01:00as we go through the weekend as this storm develops. Now, I do not...
01:05believe that this is a widespread snowstorm though for the I-95 corridor.
01:10while New York City, Philadelphia and D.C., Baltimore and Rich and...
01:15Richmond, I think you're in a little better spot for snow than farther north. While you can get a...
01:20little snow. I don't think this is a big snowstorm for you. I think everything's going to be off to the east.
01:25I'll show you why coming up. Now, why am I using the blizzard word here?
01:30Well, I'll tell you what, when you look at the ingredients, the first thing I start...
01:35this is Saturday morning. Look at this widespread injection of cold air.
01:40I mean, your freezing line is coming way down here, all the way down to I-10.
01:45Look at this. Look at this cold air. Now, also notice you have temperature...
01:50here is in the 60s here. You've got a frontal boundary that's in here. Here it is.
01:55And frontal boundaries are locations where storms form, and you're going to get a storm to form...
02:00right here. Now, let me show you the buckling jet stream that's going to do this. I'm going to show you a lot...
02:05a lot of the modeling. They're all coming in to line. We talked about this on the...
02:10the other day. You've got this upper load. This is the European AI. Why...
02:15watch it come south. There it is. This is Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, Saturday evening. Look at this.
02:20Now, with the upper load track like this, you take the upper load. That's where you're going to get the...
02:25snow on the northern side. So that's going to include the upstate of South Carolina...
02:30I think it's going to try to snow all the way down in the Myrtle Beach and certainly in the...
02:35North Carolina. Look at that upper load track. Watch it come through. There it is. Now...
02:40the GFS AI model. And I'm really starting to lean more...
02:45more and more on these AI models. There's the Europeans. Seven o'clock. There's...
02:50the GFS. European AI, GFS AI in the same spot. Look at that.
02:551 a.m. Sunday. Right? So late Saturday night. European GFS...
03:00US AI. European AI. All lining up. How about the European...
03:05operational? Same story. Look at the upper low...
03:08coming down here...
03:10across South Carolina. Now, let's go forward. I do not believe...
03:15this upper low is going to take this track. I think it's going to go out to sea. Why do I think that?
03:20You see this energy back here? I'm going to point to it right here across North Dakota. What this...
03:25is going to do? This is going to kick this. Not up the coast, but out to sea.
03:30Now, that means that once you get north of southeastern Virginia, coastal...
03:35New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, you're on the far western fringe.
03:40of this storm. You can get some snow, but I don't think it's a big snowstorm yet. But you can see, watch the...
03:45modeling. See how it goes to the northeast? European AI. GFS...
03:50AI. You see how it's going in the northeast? This is Saturday night, Sunday.
03:55European. Saturday night, Sunday morning. Oh, you see that upper low? Oh...
04:00going to the northeast. The GFS model, the America model, which had many...
04:05pretty excited yesterday, now coming in line, that it's not coming up the coast, it's going...
04:10going out. You see that? And then, the Canadian. Same story, a little...
04:15farther south, but also out to sea. That's why I think...
04:20that this is not going to be a large-scale snowstorm up the coast. Let me show you the surface map.
04:25European AI. Here we go. See the storm? You've got the snow back in...
04:30here, no doubt about it. North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, but the storm goes out...
04:35and then, watch how it tries to hook back. In the New England right...
04:40there. See that? That's what my impression has been...
04:45then, with this storm, here's the GFS AI. Same story, Saturday...
04:50there's the snow. North Carolina, South Carolina, a brush...
04:55along the Jersey, Maryland, Delaware coast...
04:58and then, it drives...
05:00has to hook back into eastern New England. The European operation...
05:05traditional model, not the AI. Little bit of a rip-off...
05:08sown in eastern North Carolina. I'm not sure I believe that...
05:10but again, a storm that's mostly offshore...
05:13maybe gets back...
05:15in the eastern New England, once you get southeast of...
05:18once you get north of South...
05:20southeastern Virginia. This is the American model...
05:24that's...
05:25that too...
05:26it's a little far north and west...
05:28tries to bring the snow into Philadelphia, D.C.
05:30in New York City...
05:31not sure I'd buy that...
05:32but it has the same kind of idea...
05:34hell...
05:35heavier snow in the Carolinas...
05:37watch eastern parts of New England...
05:39and then the Canadian...
05:40again, lined up...
05:41there's the snow in North Carolina, South Carolina...
05:44and then...
05:45the snow...
05:45storms offshore...
05:46now...
05:47one other thing I want to get into...
05:49with this storm...
05:50this is going to...
05:51and again, you look at the modeling...
05:53look how this storm...
05:54rapidly...
05:55intensifies...
05:56look at that...
05:57going down to...
05:58971 millibars...
06:00that...
06:02is a bomb cyclone...
06:03and...
06:04that means...
06:05that you're going to have...
06:06major problems...
06:07with...
06:08with a lot of...
06:10damage...
06:11as well...
06:12along the East Coast...
06:13I want to end here...
06:15let me zoom in...
06:17this is where I think...
06:18you're going to get...
06:19the accumulation...
06:20circulating snow...
06:21in this area...
06:22we're going to have...
06:23snow map...
06:24later today...
06:25this is...
06:25this is the area...
06:26right in here...
06:27boy...
06:28I tell you what...
06:29I really watched this area...
06:30in here...
06:31for over six inches...
06:32of snow...
06:33that would include...
06:34Raleigh...
06:35the other epicenter...
06:35eastern...
06:36New England...
06:37and the southeast tip...
06:38of...
06:39of...
06:40Long Island...
06:41maybe some snow...
06:42here...
06:43coastal...
06:44New Jersey...
06:45Delaware...
06:46Maryland...
06:47as well...
06:45stay tuned...
06:46it's a big storm...
06:47coming...
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