00:00Welcome back to Newswire here on SportsGrid. It's been so great to have Paul Stone on with us each and every week, breaking down all the games in college football.
00:08And the great thing is that we always have a lot of games to discuss.
00:13But Paul, this is it. We got a championship on Monday night between Miami and Indiana, just how we drew it up at the beginning of the season.
00:21No, I'm just kidding. This is like out of nowhere, obviously, to have this game here.
00:25And so I guess I'll start with this, not knowing what the line was going to be.
00:31I sort of, you know, guess these things like, you know, and you make the line.
00:34So, I mean, you should know, too. I am stunned that Indiana's eight and a half point favorites against Miami.
00:40I definitely thought that Indiana would be four or five point favorites.
00:44I thought less than a touchdown and a total, by the way, 47 and a half on FanDuel.
00:49What am I missing? Why am I so wrong on this?
00:51I, Miami, they may not win this game.
00:54They've played there, even when they lost those games to SMU and the bad games.
00:58They're still in every game this season.
01:00I must be just totally underestimating how good Indiana is.
01:04I just think really, Craig, it's just the way that Indiana has won, especially the last two games.
01:11I mean, you know, beating Alabama 38 to three and then steamrolling Oregon from the jump last week in the semifinal.
01:21I just think they're, you know, the betting public's darling.
01:24And, you know, this line, the look ahead line before the semifinal games were played was Indiana minus five and a half over Miami should that, you know, championship game matchup come to fruition, which it obviously has.
01:41And then after the semifinal decisions, it reopened at Indiana minus seven and a half.
01:48And then it's been bet up to eight and a half and even nine at some stores.
01:52So the number has certainly got out of hand.
01:55It's not going to get to 10.
01:56I think the sharks would would pile on heavy and take a lot of a lot of hurricanes if that was the case.
02:02But it is that you certainly are paying some level of a tax on Indiana if you choose to take the Hoosiers this week.
02:10So Indiana 15 and 0, I mean, crazy college football.
02:14We're playing 15 games here.
02:15They beat Oregon.
02:16They defeated Ohio State in a game where they were underdogs there.
02:19Some folks thought that they would get beat by Alabama.
02:22They did not.
02:23They crushed them.
02:24And then they took care of Oregon 56 to 22.
02:27Was there one or two wins among those, Paul, that sold you on the Hoosiers?
02:33You know, I'll tell you the one that really sold me.
02:36Last year, I was kind of a doubting Thomas, admittedly.
02:39And I think when they stepped up in class last year, when they played at Ohio State in the regular season and then against Notre Dame in the playoff,
02:49I think it kind of showed that they weren't quite there yet.
02:52They were awfully close, but not quite there.
02:54And then coming into this season, I didn't really have – I thought they'd probably take a step back
02:59and thought they might even drop off at the quarterback position going to Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza.
03:06But that certainly had been the case.
03:08But to answer your question, the game that sold me is in early October when they went to Eugene, Oregon, to Austin Stadium.
03:15It's about, I think, a seven-point underdog, and beat Oregon 70 to 20 despite giving up a pick six.
03:23Only gave up one touchdown to Oregon's offense in the final three quarters.
03:27Beat them 30 to 20 on their home turf.
03:30Nothing flukish about it.
03:31You know, that was the game that sold me on Indiana that this bunch of Hoosiers was for real and should not be taken lightly.
03:40Meanwhile, the University of Miami, nobody was really sold on them at all this season.
03:46In fact, even the college football playoff committee, very close to leaving them out to Notre Dame, who they beat.
03:52And, of course, they got in.
03:53Thank goodness they did for their sake because they have been awesome on defense throughout this college football playoff,
04:00including games that you were riding them against A&M and Ohio State.
04:03But last week, Paul, I know you thought maybe that it could come to an end against Ole Miss.
04:09And, by the way, let's be honest, it probably should have.
04:12They did not play that well against Mississippi.
04:15But the timing of some of those big plays, and, by the way, some penalties as well,
04:19really helped them out to get that win against the Rebels.
04:23For Miami, though, Paul, it does seem like, as far as we were discussing earlier,
04:28that win or lose, the games they play are all close.
04:31Yeah, and, you know, I've got some information, point spread type information,
04:38and one of the elements that I was going to share today is just that, talking about close games.
04:44In lines, in games with the point spread that is single digits,
04:49whether Miami has been the favorite or the underdog this year, Miami is 7-0 against the spread.
04:55So that kind of supports your position there, that they have fared well in close games.
05:02And this is a team that the overall resume, certainly not as impressive as Indiana's, perhaps,
05:09because they have the two losses.
05:11They lost at home fairly early to Louisville, and then lost on November 1st to SMU in overtime, 26-20.
05:19And when they lose that game to SMU, I don't even know if it might be an overstatement to say that their playoff hopes were on life support.
05:27It might have been worse than that.
05:29You know, they seem to be pretty much out of the playoff picture,
05:33but they really rebounded in grand fashion after that loss to SMU the last four games of the regular season.
05:40They were quite impressive, and many people, you know, felt Miami shouldn't have been in the playoff,
05:46that it should have been Notre Dame or perhaps Texas, and maybe that's the case.
05:50You know, that's a fair argument.
05:51But, man, once given the chance, Miami has taken full advantage.
05:56You know, you go to Texas A&M.
05:58Kyle Field is a difficult place to play.
06:00They get the victory there.
06:02Then they beat Ohio State on a neutral field and, of course, did the same to Ole Miss in the semifinals,
06:10a game where they dropped some interceptions and had some other opportunities where they could have maybe gotten out in front by a little bit.
06:18But by the same measure, as you mentioned, you know, Ole Miss could have won the game as well, a play here, a play there.
06:25But this is a well-tested team.
06:27I think it's going to be an exciting matchup, and I think some people might be selling Miami a little bit short here.
06:34Yeah, and by the way, look, I mean, I've covered and been at all of the games that Miami has played up until this point
06:43in the last 20, 30 years of the national championship.
06:46Paul, I do believe this will be a home game for them.
06:49I understand that Indiana is going to travel very well for this.
06:51But the thing that folks, I guess, maybe don't realize about South Florida is that here in South Florida, Paul,
06:57we may not show up for the regular season, but when the playoffs come around, usually those fans do too.
07:03So I would expect that Hard Rock at the very worst to be 50-50 Miami and Indiana.
07:08That being said, I know that these are always tough games to handicap when you get to the stage of the season and the lines are tight.
07:14Do you have a lean on either the side, the total, or if you don't mind, any props that you may like in this game as well?
07:20Okay, well, I'll go.
07:21If you want to jump in at any point, just let me know.
07:23But I do certainly have a position on this game.
07:27And I look back to Kirk Signetti after that Alabama game.
07:31Indiana had just throttled the tide 38-3.
07:34And he answered a question in the post-game interview.
07:38And his response was, it'd be a hell of a movie.
07:41And I think it would.
07:42But using that line, I think the Hurricanes kind of feel like an extra in Indiana's movie.
07:49I think they're kind of being treated like an afterthought, that Indiana's kind of, it's a done deal and that sort of thing.
07:56And I just think that's misguided.
07:58You know, this is a Miami team that's playing very good football right now.
08:03It's a team that's going to have perhaps up to eight players picked in the NFL draft this April.
08:08And the one thing you can do to make life difficult on a big-time quarterback, and Fernando Mendoza is certainly that, is to disrupt them, to put pressure on them.
08:21And that's what Miami does best.
08:22They lead the nation in sacks with 47 sacks, 10 1⁄2 of those by Akeem Mesidor, 8 1⁄2 by Reuben Bain.
08:31So, they can pressure the quarterback, and I think that'll certainly be to their advantage.
08:37They have faced seven teams, has Miami this year ranked in the AP Top 25 against those seven teams.
08:44They are 7-0 straight up, 7-0 against the spread.
08:48They have covered all three games and won all three games when they've been the underdog this year against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Ohio State.
08:56So, I like Miami.
08:57I recommend taking Miami plus 8 1⁄2 points for 60% of your unit, plus 290 on the money line on the other 40%.
09:07And then I'll throw in two props real quick.
09:11Malachi Tony under 5 1⁄2 receptions, minus 109.
09:16I think they'll try to neutralize him.
09:18Fernando Mendoza under 16 1⁄2 rushing yards.
09:22Great stuff as always, Paul.
09:24Thanks again for coming on, and we will catch up soon.
Comments