00:00All right, we have our snowstorm and ice storm on Friday to talk about, and I'll tell you what,
00:10the next time frame to watch is going to be New Year's Eve and New Year's Day from the lake toward
00:15the northeast as an arctic boundary comes out. Very big shot of cold air, so we'll talk about
00:21that coming up. I want to get to Friday because when I left you yesterday, we issued a snowfall
00:27map. Later in the day, I'll show you that snowfall map for our Friday system. Now, not much has
00:34changed. The ingredients remain the same. High pressure here. Here's your cold air. The real
00:40injection of cold air is in this zone in here. This is where the cold air is in deep, and it will
00:48be cold enough for snow. Now, this cold air is being attacked by a piece of energy that's going to be
00:54ejected on out from the storms in California. Here comes across the area this Friday morning.
00:59It's right in here. You see that? Pretty vigorous shortwave in here, as we call it. All of this
01:04energy, what it's going to do is produce winds out of the west, southwest at the low levels. You've got
01:10the cold air in place. You get an upward motion area, and you get an area of snow. I do think by
01:16tracking this shortwave, the way it moves, it goes from here through here. I am starting to think
01:23that the precipitation is going to have a hard time getting, let's say, north of Providence and
01:29Hartford. That means Boston. I'm starting to think you're going to get very little snow. You may get
01:34a coating. I can see how you get nothing. I just think that the cold air is deep. You can kind of
01:39see what I'm talking about. See how the system right in here moves across the area, and I'm just
01:47starting to think it may be too hard for Boston to get much of any snow out of this. So let me show
01:53you the snowfall map quickly, because I want to get in to the setup that's coming as we get into
01:59Christmas in the New Year's Eve. All right, let me go full on this. Here's our snowfall map, and again,
02:06I really think we're going to be trimming this area to take a lot of this area out, that this one to
02:13three may have to be a little tighter to the three to six, and it may have to come into here.
02:20And Boston, you may get very little out of this. I like this area of three to six from Buffalo,
02:27and again, this is going to start Friday afternoon, Friday evening. Oh, really quick,
02:32I got to go back to the surface map here quickly. The one thing I don't want to, I want to show you
02:37the surface map. There's going to be a ton of sleet with this too across Pennsylvania. This is going to
02:43be a big sleet storm here in central parts of Pennsylvania, but you can see modeling pretty
02:49consistent. Where's the heavy snow band? Right in here, right in the area that I talked about
02:54yesterday. That seems to be correct once again, right in there. And you can see having a hard time
03:01getting the precipitation up into the Buffalo area, up into the Boston area, you see, because the cold
03:07air is in deep. You continue to funnel the cold air down. I think this area, a lot of these areas are
03:13going to get over six inches of snow. Let me go back to the snow map here. We're being a little
03:19conservative in New York City and Long Island, three to six. I think that's the way to go right now,
03:25three to six inches. But I would not be surprised if you have reports, especially in Long Island,
03:31New York City, Midtown, it's always hard to accumulate the snow with the way they built up the
03:36city here. But I wouldn't be surprised if some spots here in Long Island get eight, nine inches.
03:41Same story in northern New Jersey. Right now we have three to six. So three to six inches
03:46in Buffalo, Batavia, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Elmira. Right now we do have a six to 12 area in
03:54the Catskills. Hey, listen, I talked about this yesterday. I would not be surprised if you had a
04:00six inch band that went right into this area. I could absolutely see that. I just think it's a fresh
04:07injection of cold air and you're really going to overrun this. Now, the modeling doesn't quite
04:12have enough precip in there, but I'd watch that. So we're going to stick with our three to six
04:16in New York City and Long Island. But don't be surprised if you see some eighth to tenth.
04:22Philadelphia is intriguing to me. I think you're going to get a solid one to three inches in the
04:26city before it changes over to sleet. And then it ends as some freezing drizzle.
04:31Um, the cold air may be deep enough for three, four inches in Philly. We're going to stick with
04:36the one to three. Lehigh Valley, one to three inches. You start getting into the Hazleton area,
04:42Carbon County, up in the Luzerne County in northeast PA should be a solid three to six,
04:47could mix with a little sleet. By the way, even in New York City, Long Island, where it's all snow,
04:52it will end Saturday morning as freezing drizzle as dry air comes in. You're going to see a lot of that.
04:58Pretty big storm here for Friday, Friday night. Now, I don't have a lot of time. I want to get
05:03to what's coming here on New Year's Eve. You're going to have a couple of fronts coming in. This
05:09is your first front. This is Sunday, the 28th and 29th. This sets the table. You've got this short
05:17wave, both the European and the GFS show. You see that? And what that looks like then is,
05:22as we get into New Year's Eve, you've already built cold air in place. Not Arctic, but it's cold
05:29across the Midwest and Northeast. But look what's coming up here. Another shot of Arctic air coming.
05:38I want to show you what this looks like. Here it is. This is New Year's Eve. You see all this cold
05:44up here, Northeast, that's in the Northwest Territories. Watch that. Look at that come down.
05:51New Year's Eve, New Year's Day. This is an Arctic air mass coming. The question is, with cold air
05:59already in place, is there going to be a wave along this boundary to produce a large swath of snow?
06:06Well, this is the European. See, look at the European. Look at that depth of trough there.
06:13There's the European. There's the GFS. There's a European. There's a GFS. The GFS says, no,
06:19it's just an Arctic boundary. There's some heavy snow squalls, New Year's Eve and the New Year's
06:24Day from the lakes toward the Northeast. But I would watch this. If the European's right and this trough digs
06:31a little more, you can get an area of three to six inches of snow in this area. The farther south
06:39it goes, the more that would come in. Would it be in New York City and Philadelphia? Probably not.
06:44Boston maybe, but I don't know. Let's keep an eye on this. We could be looking at a larger area of snow
06:50from the lakes toward the Northeast, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Stay with us.
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