00:00Here on the Forecast Feed, we have a lot to discuss about the end of the weekend, a potential
00:06very high-impact Sunday-Monday snowstorm for I-95. It would impact D.C., Baltimore, Philly,
00:14New York City, and Boston, and in between if it sticks close enough to the coast and doesn't go
00:20out to sea. There's been a shift in most of the modeling over the past 24 hours, and most
00:26computer models are amplifying a pretty strong storm close enough to the coast to bring some
00:33high-impact snow to some areas. Now, the European model is not on board, but the AI version of the
00:39European model is on board, interestingly. So we need to keep an eye out for all of this. First off,
00:45just a quick look at our general forecast here. Again, it's very early. It's still Tuesday. We're
00:51looking ahead five-plus days into the future, and we're highlighting a big area with snow potential
00:58along Interstate 95 and in the interior. We're going to spend some time looking at the models
01:02here and showing you where this is and where it's coming from. So I'm going to take you to Sunday
01:08night and Monday morning. Here it is. And again, this is in the GFS. Here we have a negatively tilted
01:14trough, and there are two lobes to this here, but it really wraps up and becomes one powerful storm
01:20here off the New England coast and just near Long Island on Sunday night. Let's track this back and
01:28see where it actually is now. Just kind of a reality check. Before we get the cart ahead of
01:33the horse, sometimes we're trying to forecast something that's very nuanced and very specific,
01:39and people are most interested in how much snow is the model projecting for New York City or Hartford
01:44or New Haven. And again, that's the thing that most people care about, but I think we have to still
01:50need to keep an eye on and kind of appreciate the uncertainty at play. So let's track this back in
01:55time. Again, we have two disturbances here that would be in phase with one another. There's one,
02:00and then there's another aspect to this here to the south on Friday evening and Friday night. Let's
02:05keep going back. We're going to find this to where it is right now. Here we are, not yet to
02:09the present
02:10time. This is Wednesday morning, and it's out this way. It's a disturbance off of the British
02:14Columbia coast. And I guess, again, I just want to continue to track that forward. I don't want
02:19to lose this. And if we go back to the current time, it's really a disturbance that's way up in
02:27Alaska, way up in Alaska, near the Coatsview Sound. And then you can track the trough down into areas
02:34near the Bristol Bay. So it's way, way out there. It's way out there. It's still in Alaska. And there's
02:39a lot of noisiness in the atmosphere between Alaska and the Western US. And there's a lot
02:46of traffic in the atmosphere. But as we track this, this is the European model. And we can
02:53see how this comes in. This system, not quite as in phase as the GFS. I'm going to bring the
03:00GFS
03:00back up here. I actually closed it out inadvertently, but I'm going to bring this back up to compare
03:05the two. So here's the European, which is kind of the not so exciting scenario where this gets
03:10going offshore. Meanwhile, the GFS has a very mature cyclone just south of Cape Cod on Monday
03:20morning. Look at the difference. GFS and the European. Very, very wrapped up, strong powerhouse
03:26of the cyclone there, strong low pressure system. Meanwhile, a weaker system in the European. Let's go
03:32back to Sunday. What's the difference? You could see a Sunday evening. The GFS is a little faster
03:39with the Southern branch feature. And you can see it is just much more dynamic. Look at this gradient
03:44here with the thickness lines down over Georgia and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the European, it's a
03:50little farther back. It's a little farther back. And you can see the Southern branch feature in the
03:55jet stream is behind the Northern branch feature in the jet stream. So they do eventually get in phase
04:01with one another, but a little bit too late in the game for the big payoff in the East. Meanwhile,
04:06the, the GFS, they do get into phase with one another back over the interior. And this really
04:13ramps up then just offshore. So how does this look? And I have a bunch of different models stacked up
04:18here. I wanted to show you the end result of this. Here's the GFS. This is a pretty powerful storm
04:23on
04:23Sunday, disrupting travel plans in more ways than one here, Sunday, Sunday night, Monday. And look
04:30at that nasty onshore wind. This could become a blizzard for Boston and for Eastern Long Island.
04:35Now the European, not on board. This has, the storm still exists. It's largely offshore before it
04:42wraps up. And here's the GFS, or here's the European. It brings some light rain showers down to South
04:48Jersey. It brings maybe an inch of snow into parts of the Poconos, maybe an inch to Harrisburg,
04:54coating to an inch for the big cities and out to sea. And that's it. That's it. But that's an
04:58outlier right now. The European is an outlier. Here's the European AI. This is what, I'm a little
05:03concerned that this may, we may have to keep a close eye on this. The European AI does ramp this
05:07one up
05:08far more than the traditional European. And this would be maybe not as explosive as the GFS, but it's
05:16close. It's a little more offshore compared to the GFS, but it's very close. And this would bring
05:20several inches of snow into the I-95. The GFS AI, it's on board, not surprising. The Canadian,
05:27big snowstorm. The UK met big snowstorm as well, maybe a small half step east. So we've got some
05:33big concerns, big potential with significant snow potentially coming to the I-95 Sunday and Monday.
05:40Here's the European where that snow would be laid down earlier in the week.
05:43But the Canadian, big time snow, that magenta color, you're looking at over a foot in some
05:48areas. So that's why we're very concerned about this storm system here. And again, we have to keep
05:53a close eye on things. The European, the reason that, again, it's a little bit uncanny, it's a
06:00little odd that the European, statistically, if you take any individual model that's proven itself
06:05over the years for days four through seven or something like that, maybe days three through
06:1110. The European statistically is king. It's not on board with this system, but the AI derivative
06:18of the European, the AI sibling to that, which is new, it's only been new this winter. And again,
06:24we don't have a long track record. That's on board. The GFS is on board. The GFS AI is on
06:30board.
06:30The Canadian is on board. And the UK met is as well, though it may not be quite as robust
06:35in the
06:35interior. So we have big concerns about this storm system. And we're going to have a lot more to talk
06:39about over the next few days. And again, certainly snow potential, high-end snow potential possible
06:45Sunday into Monday for I-95. That's your forecast feed.
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