00:00All right, ECES is long gone. I'm going to keep an eye for, I think, what will be at least
00:08one more storm in the Atlantic.
00:10The question is, is it going to be a rogue storm way out in the Atlantic, or is it going
00:15to be closer to home?
00:16But the next storm on the list, of course, is Josephine is the next storm.
00:22So we've had three, six, seven, eight, nine. I think we average about 14 storms.
00:28We're not going to get there, obviously, but I think we're going to get Josephine.
00:32And there may be another rogue storm in the middle of the Atlantic that affects no one.
00:36So I suspect we'll get another one, maybe two.
00:40The question is, will we get any more impacts on the United States?
00:44I certainly don't see any in the next week to 10 days. Where are we? The 13th.
00:50I do think, though, by the end of October, things get a little more interesting.
00:54Now, when you take a look, where do we see storms develop this time of the year?
01:00It's closer to home. And as you go through the month of October, you start eliminating these areas.
01:08And it's more in here where you look for development in the Gulf, the Northwest Caribbean or the Caribbean itself,
01:18not necessarily northwest and off the east coast of the United States.
01:22I'm starting to think, well, I wouldn't want to rule out the Gulf at all, quite honestly,
01:27although you've had ECE has kind of stirred the ocean up here.
01:33So water temperatures are down a little bit here.
01:35But still, when you look at the area and you look into the Caribbean, water temperatures here.
01:40Now, keep in mind, we've had no storms in this area.
01:44There are some lower water temperatures in the northern Gulf, ECE has kind of stirred everything up.
01:50But boy, you still have a lot of warm water in the Caribbean and off the southeast part of the
01:57Atlantic.
01:58What you're looking for in October, though, I don't worry about tropical waves.
02:04I worry about homegrown development.
02:07That is the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics.
02:10So having that and knowing that this is the area that we're typically going to watch is in here.
02:19What's going on in these areas right now?
02:22And right now, it's very hostile for development.
02:24Take a look at the water vapor loop.
02:26And you can see, well, you've got an upper low here.
02:29I'll show you that with the shear, and you've got a high here.
02:33But tons of dry air here in the Gulf.
02:35You're not going to get anything there.
02:37You've also got a lot of dry air in the Caribbean with this upper low.
02:41Now, if you've got to watch this upper low, I think it's going to start migrating to the west
02:45and probably come across Central America, and it shouldn't be that much of a problem.
02:49But when you look at the current shear, there's too much shear for anything to develop,
02:54at least in the current time frame here.
02:57So I'm not really worried about here the next couple of days.
03:00However, when you look at the overall weather pattern and you look at the weather map,
03:07keep an eye out.
03:09I would normally, normally keep an eye out for the weekend because you've got this big area of high pressure.
03:17You see that building across the northeast?
03:19Here it is.
03:20So you're going to get a frontal boundary stuck down in here.
03:22So this is an area that I would say, hmm, let's keep an eye on that.
03:29That would be the southwest Atlantic, the Gulf, and also the Caribbean.
03:34Now, that's what it looks like just at the surface map.
03:37But then when you look at the shear map, and that's this weekend, there's too much shear.
03:43You could just see the shears in here.
03:45And as you look at the map of the shear, here's Saturday, the shear denoted by the darker colors.
03:51There's Sunday, Monday.
03:53I mean, this is closed.
03:56This is closed.
03:57You're not going to get any development here.
04:00There's too much shear through Monday.
04:02When you go back to the surface map by the time you get on Monday, then the high leaves, and
04:09you kind of, that door is closed.
04:11All right.
04:12So with that frontal boundary, I don't think you're going to get any shear.
04:15You have too much shear, so you're not going to get any development.
04:18So here we are.
04:19By the time we get into next week, it's the 19th.
04:22All right.
04:23I want to check this area moving forward.
04:26It is interesting.
04:27Now, I'm going to show you the European.
04:28I'm going to show you the American model.
04:30The American model is notorious for overdeveloping systems.
04:35It always overdevelops systems in the tropics.
04:38But this is the European, and this is somewhat interesting to me, that you've got a dip of the jet
04:45stream down here.
04:47You see that?
04:48That's the European, and even the GFS, showing you've got a little dip in the jet stream.
04:54There's your interaction between the jet stream and the tropics, right?
04:57Because with the jet streams coming this far south, it's going to start initiating showers and thunderstorms.
05:03There we are on the 21st.
05:05What does the shear look like on the 21st?
05:10Still, you've got too much shear in here.
05:13You have a little pocket here, but you still have too much shear.
05:16Okay.
05:16As we head into the latter half of the month, let's go into the—see, you start getting to the 23rd,
05:2424th, 25th.
05:26You're starting to get a little noise going down here, the 27th.
05:30The GFS, see, what's happening is, you've got this dip in the jet stream leaving, but this says that you've
05:37activated some showers and thunderstorms down here.
05:41By the time we get into the 25th, 6th, and 7th of October.
05:46You see that?
05:47All right.
05:48And even the GFS is showing all kind of energy down in here.
05:53So, the modeling hinting, hinting, more so in the American model, which always overproduces.
05:59But at the same time, even the European, you've got a big high here.
06:03Where do you look for stuff?
06:04The belly of the high.
06:06I think you're going to start getting some showers and thunderstorms to build down here on the 25th, 6th, and
06:127th, somewhere in that time frame of October.
06:15Okay, what does the shear look like?
06:19And all of a sudden, you've got a pocket of low wind shear in here.
06:25You notice that?
06:27In here.
06:28And even as we get toward the 27th, this isn't high wind shear, it's lower wind shear.
06:34Is it ideal for development?
06:36No.
06:38Can I see something in this area?
06:4126th, 7th of this month?
06:43Yes.
06:45So, I think this is an area to keep an eye on as we close out October.
06:51And maybe they get Josephine.
06:53We'll see.
