- 32 minutes ago
Pakistan raised the Kashmir issue during UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ visit, seeking greater international attention and a stronger UN role in addressing the dispute. Guterres, however, stressed the need for dialogue between India and Pakistan and offered his “good offices” to facilitate engagement, without announcing any new mechanism for resolving the issue. India has consistently rejected third-party intervention on Kashmir and maintained that the matter should be addressed bilaterally. Guterres’ remarks therefore focused on encouraging dialogue and de-escalation rather than proposing a fresh international framework for the long-standing dispute.
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00:00Can Pakistan take Kashmir to the UN only to find the UN sending the issue straight back
00:05to India and Pakistan? And while Islamabad struggles to turn an old diplomatic argument
00:10into a new international push, is another Indian origin community quietly becoming
00:16a force in American politics? Today, two stories about influence and its limits.
00:22Pakistan wanted UN intervention on Kashmir. Antonio Guterres offered dialogue, not a new
00:28mechanism. No endorsement, no intervention, just diplomacy. Then look to America. More
00:35than 5.2 million Indian Americans, high voter turnout and growing political independence
00:40make them a community neither Democrats nor Republicans can really ignore. One seeks international
00:46leverage, the other is gaining political leverage. So who is using influence better? Hello and
00:52welcome. You're watching Statecraft with me, Geeta Mohan.
00:54Saudi Arabia is facing a dangerous new escalation. Iran-backed Houthis have struck two major
01:00Saudi airports, killing three people and injuring dozens, turning civilian aviation into the latest
01:06battlefield of the Yemen war. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha International Airport in
01:12southwestern Saudi Arabia came under attack. The Houthis claimed responsibility for both strikes.
01:18At Riyadh Airport, a Sudanese man was killed. Eight others, including Saudi nationals, Egyptians and a
01:24Pakistani resident were injured. At Abha International Airport, two women, one Moroccan and one Algerian were
01:32killed. 28 people were injured, some seriously. Saudi authorities say airport facilities were damaged
01:38and safety inspections are underway. But Riyadh's response has been swift.
01:43The Saudi-led coalition says it destroyed 82 Houthi military targets across Yemen, including
01:49ballistic missile storage facilities and command centers. It also says a Houthi ballistic missile
01:55launched towards northern Riyadh was intercepted, while the launch platform in Sanaa was destroyed.
02:02India has strongly condemned these attacks, saying that they were completely unacceptable and that
02:07India stands with the people and government of the kingdom. Meanwhile, tensions between Washington
02:13and Tehran are rising again. Reports say the White House has asked the Pentagon for military options
02:18against Iran that could potentially be executed before the U.S. midterms. Oil markets are already
02:25reacting. Brent crude has crossed $100 a barrel. The danger is clear. Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the
02:32Gulf are becoming one connected battlefield with missiles, oil and global trade all in the line of
02:39fire. Amid all the wars and conflicts, food crisis is something that stares the world and is going to be
02:46one of the biggest crises in the near future. I spoke with Dr. Alvaro Lario. He's the president of
02:51International Fund for Agriculture Development, a part of the United Nations. And this is what he had to say
02:57about food crisis and food security. Listen in. Dr. Alvaro Lario, in your or IFAD's assessment,
03:06how or what is the situation when it comes to food security? That's the conversation that every leader,
03:12world leader has been having at every multilateral platform or for that matter, bilateral conversations.
03:18With the conflicts that we are seeing, where do you see the food crisis head? Is it going to worsen?
03:25And how long will it take for the world to really realize where we are at when it comes to
03:31food security?
03:31So what we're seeing is that for many countries, actually, food security has become a matter of national security.
03:38When you go to sub-Saharan Africa, you have, I would say, a big challenge vis-à-vis youth employment,
03:43but also even to secure food for themselves. Africa is a continent. They are importing every year
03:48a hundred billion of US dollars of food. That's something that should not be happening.
03:53They should be creating a lot of those jobs and value chains in the continent for the youth.
03:57So when we talk about food security and some of the shocks that we're seeing, you're seeing fuel shocks,
04:02you're seeing fertilizer shocks, you're seeing an increasing number of droughts, extreme heat waves.
04:08All of that is affecting very much the viability of many of the value chains, even trade.
04:13Now it's being put into question in some cases, and that's affecting very much food prices.
04:18And what we are seeing because of many of these shocks, including what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz,
04:24is that because of fuel prices going up, fertilizer, which is a product where it's urea, where it's nitrogen,
04:32it will be affecting a lot of the prices of fertilizers. And we have been seeing it right now in
04:37a lot of the plantation season in April and May
04:40and before the summer. And all of that will translate into higher food prices for the end of the year
04:45and the next year to the next quarter.
04:48We have already been seeing it during the third quarter. The prices have increased by 13% according to a
04:54Bloomberg price index.
04:55So we are seeing already the repercussion of food price inflation, and that makes many farmers have to decide whether
05:00to continue planting, to give food to their children. So it's in some cases a dire situation.
05:06Pakistan wanted the UN chief to talk Kashmir. Instead, Antonio Guterres gave Islam about something far less useful,
05:14a polite reminder that wars and disputes do not come with the UN remote control.
05:19During his Pakistan visit, Guterres was asked directly about Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir.
05:26He did not repeat Pakistan's preferred language, did not announce a new UN role, and did not promise to resolve
05:34the dispute.
05:35He spoke about peace, dialogue, and his good offices, then turned the spotlight onto the Security Council itself,
05:43calling out its crisis of legitimacy and effectiveness.
05:46So was this the diplomatic win Pakistan hoped for? Or did Islamabad invite the UN chief to validate its Kashmir
05:53pitch
05:54and get a lesson in talking to India instead?
05:57So what exactly did Guterres say?
06:00At a joint press conference with Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar,
06:06a Pakistani journalist asked him about the Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir.
06:10The answer was strikingly broad.
06:13I have the opinion that all problems can be solved by peace and dialogue,
06:17and my good offices are always available for all situations.
06:22The question of the Security Council is simple.
06:25The Security Council does not represent the world of today.
06:29Just to give an example, we have three European members in the Security Council
06:33and no African member in the Security Council, I mean permanent members,
06:38which means that the Security Council has a problem of legitimacy
06:42and has a problem of effectiveness.
06:45Now, the truth is that for resolutions to be implemented,
06:50we need the members of the Security Council to be united,
06:54and in particular the P5 to be united.
06:56And the fact that we are witnessing today a situation in which superpowers,
07:02permanent members of the Security Council, are the first to start conflict.
07:07Pakistan prioritised Kashmir during the visit, advocating for UN intervention.
07:12However, Guterres declined to take up the issue, recommending dialogue instead.
07:17And that creates the obvious question.
07:19If Pakistan wanted international intervention,
07:22why did the UN chief send the conversation straight back to India and Pakistan?
07:27Because good offices does not mean the UN gets to walk into the room,
07:31rearrange the chairs, and announce a settlement.
07:33It means the Secretary General can facilitate communication or diplomacy
07:38if the parties want it.
07:41That distinction is vital.
07:43Pakistan wants Kashmir internationalised,
07:45while India insists on bilateral talks.
07:48By emphasising dialogue, Guterres offered no endorsement for a UN-led solution.
07:53His offer of good offices keeps the door open,
07:57but leaves the issue for India and Pakistan to settle directly.
08:01Pakistan's diplomatic push hits a wall.
08:03It can certainly say that Kashmir was raised directly with the UN chief.
08:08It can point to its repeated references to Security Council resolutions.
08:12It can argue that the issue remains on the international agenda.
08:15But did Guterres give Pakistan a new mechanism?
08:19No.
08:20Did he promise UN intervention?
08:22No.
08:23Did he endorse Pakistan's framing of Kashmir?
08:26Not in his answer.
08:28So the question becomes,
08:29was this a diplomatic setback for Pakistan's attempt to internationalise Kashmir?
08:34At the very least,
08:35it was not the endorsement Islamabad wanted.
08:38And Guterres did something else that made the answer even more interesting.
08:42He pivoted from Kashmir to the Security Council itself.
08:46He said the council does not represent the world of today
08:50and suffers from problems of legitimacy and effectiveness.
08:53He pointed to three European permanent members
08:56and no permanent African member
08:58as an example of an outdated structure.
09:01Then he went after the bigger problem,
09:03powerful countries that start conflicts or violate international law.
09:08That was Guterres widening the camera shot.
09:10Pakistan wanted Kashmir.
09:12Guterres talked about the credibility of the entire Security Council itself.
09:16So was he ignoring Kashmir?
09:18No.
09:19He was refusing to let one question force him into a partisan answer.
09:23And that distinction matters.
09:26Now look at India's response.
09:28Around the same time,
09:29India hit back at Pakistan's Kashmir references
09:31at the Inter-Parliamentary Union Assembly in Tanzania.
09:35Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman Hari Vanch accused Pakistan
09:39of politicizing the forum
09:41and making baseless allegations against India.
09:43He reiterated India's position that Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh
09:47are integral and inalienable parts of India.
09:50Honourable Chairperson,
09:52we deplore the attempts by a delegation
09:55to politicize the forum
09:57and to bring in unwarranted references
09:59to issues which do not fall within the purview of this forum or metric.
10:05Quite habitually,
10:07this delegation attempts to indulge in propaganda
10:09and makes baseless allegations against India.
10:12The union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh
10:16have been, are, and shall always remain
10:19integral and inalienable parts of India.
10:22That explains Guterres' caution.
10:24Pakistan demands a UN role
10:26while India rejects third-party intervention.
10:29Choosing diplomacy,
10:31Guterres advocated dialogue.
10:33Yet a contradiction remains.
10:34If Pakistan seeks peace
10:36and Guterres emphasizes dialogue,
10:38why continually seek external pressure
10:41on India instead of engaging directly?
10:45Pakistan can invoke old resolutions again and again.
10:48It can raise Kashmir at international forums.
10:50It can brief visiting leaders.
10:52But repeating the same talking point
10:54does not automatically create a new diplomatic outcome.
10:58And Guterres did not create one.
11:01India's position also remains unchanged.
11:04New Delhi rejects external mediation
11:06and maintains that disputes with Pakistan
11:08should be handled bilaterally.
11:10India also links the broader relationship to terrorism,
11:13particularly after the April 22, 2025,
11:17Pahlgam terror attack that killed 26 people.
11:20India subsequently launched Operation Sindhur
11:23against terror infrastructure and training facilities
11:25in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
11:29The two sides later fought before reaching a ceasefire.
11:33So the backdrop to this exchange is hardly peaceful.
11:37Which brings us to the real takeaway.
11:39Did Pakistan manage to put Kashmir before the UN chief?
11:43Yes.
11:44Did it get the direct endorsement it wanted?
11:46No.
11:47Guterres did not revive Pakistan's campaign
11:50for a UN-led Kashmir settlement.
11:52He did not announce a new mechanism.
11:54He did not promise intervention.
11:56In the end,
11:57Guterres' visit delivered a clear message.
12:00Raising Kashmir in international forums
12:02does not force a UN-imposed solution.
12:05Progress depends entirely on direct bilateral dialogue
12:09between New Delhi and Islamabad.
12:11U.S. President Donald Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize,
12:15but even he is not sure the Nobel Committee will agree.
12:19With the 2026 prize set to be announced on Friday,
12:22Trump says he deserves the honor for his diplomatic efforts
12:26and for what he calls his role in resolving multiple conflicts.
12:30Scored.
12:31I'm saying that when you settle eight wars and nobody's ever,
12:35I'll bet you if you look at the Nobel Prize,
12:38look, Obama got it and he didn't do anything.
12:40He still doesn't know what he got it for.
12:42He got it when he got elected right at the beginning
12:46and he had no idea why he got it.
12:48Well, in my case,
12:50I didn't know that they're doing it,
12:52but you're right, it is about that time.
12:55But I was very honored to receive it indirectly
12:59last time by the recipient
13:01who said nobody in history deserves it more than President Trump.
13:05And since then, we've done a lot.
13:07Trump also suggested the Nobel Committee may have a habit
13:11of overlooking people like him.
13:13Trump has made this argument repeatedly since returning to the White House.
13:17He says he has stepped into eight conflicts
13:20and deserves recognition for trying to bring them to an end.
13:23He even pointed to an unusual gesture
13:26from last year's Nobel Laureate Venezuelan opposition leader,
13:29Maria Corina Machado.
13:31After receiving the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize,
13:35Machado gave her medal to Trump in January
13:37while seeking U.S. backing for her political efforts.
13:41Trump also says leaders from Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan nominated him.
13:46But those claims cannot be independently verified.
13:49And this is where the Nobel argument gets complicated.
13:52Some parties to conflicts,
13:54Trump says he helped resolve, dispute the extent of his role.
13:58Fighting has also returned in places such as the Democratic Republic of Congo
14:03and along the Cambodia-Thailand border.
14:05Then there's Ukraine,
14:07the war Trump once promised to end on his first day back in office,
14:11but which remains unresolved.
14:13And after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran,
14:15the region has seen another major conflict with global consequences.
14:19So Trump wants the prize,
14:21but whether the Nobel Committee agrees is a very different question.
14:24America is heading into a midterm election where control of Congress could come down to narrow margins.
14:31And in that fight, one community is attracting unusual attention.
14:36Indian Americans, more than 5.2 million people,
14:40high voter turnout, growing political independence,
14:44and concentrated in some of the most closely watched states in America.
14:49For decades, Indian American voters have leaned democratic,
14:52but that political certainty is changing.
14:56And in 2026, both parties have a reason to compete for their vote.
15:01The numbers explain why.
15:03The Indian origin population in the United States of America has grown from around 2.8 million in 2010
15:10to more than 5.2 million.
15:12But population alone does not explain the political importance.
15:16Turnout does.
15:17Indian American voters turned out at around 71% in the 2020 presidential election and about 70% in 2024.
15:27And according to the 2026 Asian American and Pacific Islander Voter Survey,
15:3290% of registered Indian American voters said they planned to vote in the midterms.
15:3871% said they were certain to vote.
15:41That is a potentially important combination, a growing community, a high propensity to vote,
15:47and a heavy presence in suburban America.
15:50Because the 2026 midterms will not be decided simply by national numbers.
15:55They will be fought state by state, district by district,
16:00and sometimes by margins that are surprisingly small.
16:03Look at Georgia.
16:05More than 158,000 Indian origin residents live in the state.
16:09Many are concentrated around the northern suburbs of Atlanta.
16:13Gwinnett and Forsyth counties have growing Asian American populations.
16:19And Georgia has already shown how closely fought elections can become.
16:24Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump there in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes.
16:29That does not mean Indian American voters decide Georgia.
16:33But it shows why high turnout communities in the suburbs can become politically significant.
16:39Then there's Pennsylvania.
16:41Again, more than 158,000 Indian Americans.
16:44And many are concentrated around the Philadelphia suburbs.
16:47Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, Bucks.
16:50These are exactly the kind of suburban area campaigns watch when statewide margins are tight.
16:57Indian American voters are not a monolithic bloc.
17:01But their concentration makes them difficult for campaigns to ignore.
17:05North Carolina is another piece of the puzzle.
17:08Its technology and pharmaceutical sectors have attracted Indian American professionals.
17:13Communities around Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte have expanded.
17:18And candidates are paying great attention to metropolitan and suburban voters.
17:23The same story is visible in Texas.
17:25More than 430,000 people of Indian origin live there.
17:30Large communities are concentrated around Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin.
17:36And Texas matters for another reason.
17:39Indian American political influence is no longer limited to traditional democratic strongholds.
17:45Fort Bend County near Houston, Cawley, and Denton counties around Dallas.
17:50These are places where the changing suburban electorate has become increasingly important.
17:56Republicans and Democrats both have an incentive to compete for voters here.
18:02The map gets even wider.
18:04Arizona has more than 61,000 Indian Americans, with a significant concentration around Phoenix.
18:10Michigan has more than 108,000, including communities around Detroit and suburbs such as Oakland County, Troy, Novi, and Farmington
18:21Hills.
18:21These states contain competitive suburban constituencies where turnout can really matter.
18:27But here's where the story gets more complicated.
18:30Indian Americans still lean democratic.
18:33A 2026 AAPI data and APIA vote survey found that 66% preferred a Democratic Senate candidate compared with 22
18:43% for a Republican candidate.
18:46Yet another important trend is emerging.
18:48Political identification is becoming less fixed.
18:51Research cited by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that the share of Indian Americans identifying as Democrats fell
19:00from 55% in 2020 to 46% in early 2026.
19:06At the same time, the share identifying as independent rose to 29%.
19:11Republican identification remains lower than Democratic identification.
19:16But the movement towards independence changes the political equation.
19:21Because independent voters are harder to treat as guaranteed votes.
19:26And that creates an opening for both parties.
19:29Democrats have a constituency they have historically relied upon.
19:33Republicans have an opportunity to compete for voters who may be increasingly focused on issues rather than party identity.
19:42And those issues are not necessarily foreign policy.
19:46Cost of living and inflation rank among the biggest concerns.
19:5090% of surveyed AAPI voters call them very or extremely important.
19:56Health care followed at 82%.
19:58Education and public safety also matter.
20:02Immigration is another issue, particularly for Indian professionals and families affected by employment-based green card backlogs and the H
20:10-1B system.
20:11Then there is India.
20:14U.S.-India relations matter to many Indian American voters.
20:17Trade, technology, defense, the Indo-Pacific.
20:20The U.S.-India trade deal hanging in the balance, Trump administration cozying up to Pakistan, could all affect the Indian
20:28origin voters.
20:29But that also does not mean voters will automatically vote based on India policy.
20:35Their political choices are shaped by a combination of American domestic concerns and foreign policy interests.
20:42And that is precisely what makes this electorate significant.
20:46Indian American voters are not simply an ethnic voting bloc waiting to be claimed by one party.
20:52They are a diverse electorate with different priorities.
20:56Younger voters may weigh issues differently from older voters.
21:00Professionals may have different concerns from small business owners.
21:03And families affected by immigration policy may view the H-1B system very differently from voters focused primarily on inflation
21:13or public safety.
21:14That is why both parties are watching.
21:17Democrats have to maintain support among a community that has historically leaned their way.
21:22Republicans are seeking to expand their appeal among voters who have become less firmly attached to the Democratic Party.
21:30And the issues being debated are increasingly practical.
21:33Inflation, taxes, education, immigration, public safety, jobs, health care, and America's relationship with India.
21:43The 2026 midterms will therefore test more than party strength.
21:47They will also reveal whether Indian American voters remain a relatively predictable democratic constituency
21:54or continue moving towards a more politically independent position.
21:58The answer will not come from one survey or one state or one campaign.
22:04It will come from the ballot boxes in the suburbs, from Georgia to Pennsylvania, from Texas to Michigan, from Arizona
22:11to North Carolina.
22:13Because Indian American voters are no longer simply a growing community in America.
22:17They are becoming an increasingly visible part of the political electorate.
22:22And that is the significance of 2026.
22:25Not that Indian American voters will decide the election by themselves.
22:29But in a political system where Congress can be shaped by closely fought races,
22:34a high turnout community concentrated in competitive states can matter.
22:39The Indian American vote is changing.
22:41Its partisan identity is becoming less fixed.
22:44And both Democrats and Republicans know one thing.
22:47They cannot simply assume those votes belong to them.
22:50That's all in this edition of Statecraft.
22:52Before we go, a French mayor has made headlines after shielding protesting students from riot police
22:59during nationwide demonstrations over school reforms across France.
23:03Bally Bagayoko, the 53-year-old mayor of St. Denis,
23:08was tear-gassed while standing between police and protesters in Paris.
23:13Videos show him later receiving saline to ease the irritation in his eyes.
23:18Bagayoko, a member of the left-wing La France Insoumi Party,
23:24has backed students demanding better funding, smaller classrooms and more teachers.
23:29He has also called for talks instead of escalation,
23:31urging French authorities to negotiate with students' groups.
23:35His support has drawn criticism,
23:37with police accusing him of contributing to the unrest.
23:40With that, it's goodbye from me.
23:43Take care.