00:00Canada has officially begun drafting war scenarios assuming a war with the United States.
00:03The very fact that Canada is creating plans assuming a war with the US
00:06is something that hasn't happened in a hundred years.
00:09Today, let's take a proper look at this story. Let's dive right in.
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00:16According to a report by the New York Times,
00:18after US President Trump threatened to make Canada the 51st state of the United States,
00:22Canada took this threat very seriously.
00:24Because of this, they've reportedly reviewed in detail the possibility of a US-led military invasion.
00:29On top of that, according to a report by the Globe and Mail,
00:32the Canadian military drafted a hypothetical scenario of a US invasion of Canada
00:35and reportedly formulated detailed plans on how to respond to it.
00:39It is said that the response plans included key measures ranging from using militias
00:43to guerrilla warfare like that seen in Afghanistan.
00:45You might ask if it's only natural to draw up war plans with neighboring countries, though.
00:49The very fact that Canada is formulating war plans against the United States is extremely unusual.
00:53Canada is an irreplaceable ally of the United States.
00:55It's a founding member of NATO,
00:57and in North America, the US and Canada jointly operate an integrated air defense system.
01:01Yet for such a Canada to assume a US invasion and draft a response plan
01:04is something that hasn't happened in 100 years.
01:07According to the New York Times,
01:08they mention that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney comes from a finance background,
01:12where one approaches the world by thoroughly evaluating worst-case scenarios
01:15and preparing countermeasures,
01:17suggesting that what Prime Minister Mark Carney did might just be a risk management measure.
01:21The Canadian Prime Minister's office stated they have no further comment on this war plan.
01:24That said, President Trump's repeated pressure on Canada
01:27is cited as a key factor behind Prime Minister Carney,
01:29considering even the possibility of a military conflict with the United States.
01:33Since taking office,
01:35President Trump has repeatedly claimed that Canada should become the 51st state of the US,
01:39continuing to make remarks concerning Canada's sovereignty.
01:42Compounded by conflicts between the two nations over tariffs,
01:45analysis suggests that the Canadian government
01:47has begun to view its relationship with the US from a different perspective.
01:50In fact, with recent economic conflicts between the US and Canada expanding into tariff disputes,
01:55tensions between the two countries have escalated.
01:57However, Canada is concerned because circumstances have emerged
02:00connecting Canada's internal separatist movements with American figures.
02:04A prime example is the province of Alberta in western Canada.
02:07Alberta is a region with well-developed oil and natural resource industries,
02:11where dissatisfaction with federal government policies
02:13and movements advocating for independence have long existed.
02:16Recently, this movement has been drawing attention again,
02:18following reports that the Alberta Prosperity Project,
02:21an Alberta separatist group, made contact with US government officials.
02:25In particular, a Financial Times report stated that
02:27officials from the Alberta Prosperity Project met with US State Department officials several times
02:31and are pursuing discussions regarding the financial support needed
02:34should Alberta gain independence.
02:36It was reported that the group even brought up a large-scale line of credit
02:39to support the post-independence transition.
02:41During this process, Jeff Jeffries, legal counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Project,
02:46made remarks suggesting that the United States has a significant interest
02:49in a free and independent Alberta.
02:52However, the US government drew the line stating that the contact took place
02:54during routine meetings with civil society figures
02:56and that there was no support or specific commitment for independence.
02:59This is the part the Canadian government is bound to view very sensitively.
03:02That is because separatist forces inside Canada discussing independence among themselves
03:06is a completely different matter from them discussing post-independence economic aid
03:10or state governance with foreign government officials.
03:12In fact, strong concerns were raised even within Canadian political circles
03:16over contacts between US government officials and Alberta separatists.
03:19On the other hand, the US government stated that
03:21no promises of support were made during the contacts in question
03:24and Pete Hoekstra, the US ambassador to Canada,
03:27also denied claims that the Trump administration was discussing strategy
03:30with Alberta separatists or preparing to support them.
03:33However, here lies the problem that Canada must contemplate most seriously.
03:36That is none other than the disparity in military power between the US and Canada.
03:39Assuming Canada engages in an all-out conventional war with the US,
03:43it is difficult to compare the two countries on equal terms.
03:45Backed by an immense defense budget,
03:47the United States operates aircraft carrier forces capable of conducting operations worldwide,
03:50strategic bombers, fighter jets, submarines, as well as satellite and intelligence assets.
03:54On the other hand, the Canadian armed forces are organized on a scale
03:57to handle homeland defense and NATO international missions,
03:59so they aren't structured to sustain a large-scale conventional war
04:01at the same level as the US for an extended period.
04:03The difference becomes especially problematic as the war drags on.
04:06The US has a vast military-industrial base capable of continuously deploying troops and equipment
04:10while replenishing losses.
04:12Canada would inevitably face significant limitations in halting a US attack over a prolonged period,
04:16relying solely on its regular forces.
04:18Therefore, when Canada reviewed the possibility of a US invasion,
04:21the critical variable was not whether it could fight back in the same manner as the United States.
04:25With the regular forces' strength vastly outmatched,
04:27the core issue becomes how to sustain the nation's defensive capabilities.
04:31Because of this, it is known that the Canadian Armed Forces' hypothetical model
04:34discuss irregular warfare tactics, such as surprise attacks by small units,
04:37ambushes, drone deployment, and sabotage against infrastructure,
04:39alongside conventional combat responses.
04:41This does not mean Canada could overpower the United States militarily.
04:45Rather, it is a response strategy predicated on the vast disparity in military power
04:48between their regular armed forces.
04:50For Canada, rather than fighting a war on the same terms as the United States,
04:53it is necessary to consider maintaining a prolonged resistance capability
04:56by leveraging their own geographical conditions and vast territory.
05:00Of course, if the United States were to actually invade Canada,
05:02the diplomatic burden it would face in the international community would inevitably be immense.
05:07In particular, Canada has long cooperated with the US in economic and security fields
05:11and is also a member of NATO.
05:12Attacking such a country with military force would be an issue
05:15that could significantly impact the United States' existing alliances as well.
05:18In particular, Canada has recently even been moving to further strengthen its ties with Europe.
05:23In his speech to the European Parliament,
05:25Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada and the EU need to expand their strategic cooperation further,
05:29and proposals also came from the EU side to take relations with Canada to the next level.
05:33In this situation, if the US were to actually take military action against Canada,
05:37it could cause a significant blow to the political trust between the US and Europe as well.
05:41For the US as well, a war with Canada wouldn't just end as a simple military issue.
05:44It's a matter that could impact internal NATO relations, diplomatic ties with Europe,
05:48and even the perception of America's role in the international community.
05:51So, realistically speaking, the chances of an actual war breaking out between the US and Canada are extremely low.
05:55However, there are definitely changes happening in Canada.
05:57The shifts emerging as Canada examines the possibility of a conflict with the US go far beyond just military preparedness.
06:02Rather, what deserves more attention is their move to reduce dependence on the US
06:06while simultaneously expanding economic and security ties with other nations.
06:10Prime Minister Mark Carney has also stated multiple times that rather than completely severing ties with the US,
06:14Canada's direction is to diversify its trade and security partners so that it does not become overly dependent on any
06:19single nation.
06:20While continuing negotiations with the US,
06:22the Canadian government is expanding exports to other markets like Europe and Asia and pushing for new economic and security
06:27cooperation.
06:27Relations with Europe are especially noteworthy.
06:30Canada is expanding cooperation with the European Union in areas like the defense industry,
06:34critical minerals, energy, and artificial intelligence,
06:36and is also participating in SAFE, Europe's defense procurement program.
06:40Recently, there are even discussions on ways to further develop ties with the European Union.
06:43On top of that, they've also formally applied to join the Joint Expeditionary Force,
06:46a rapid response military partnership led by the UK.
06:48While maintaining its existing security ties with the US,
06:51a push to broaden a separate network of military cooperation with European nations is emerging.
06:55The same trend is appearing in the economic sector as well.
06:58Canada is expanding its export markets to Asia, India, and ASEAN,
07:01while pursuing policies to increase exports to non-US regions.
07:04This doesn't mean giving up on relations with the US.
07:06That's because the economic ties with the US are still enormous.
07:09It's just about reducing the risks of becoming overly dependent on a single country
07:13and expanding Canada's economic and diplomatic options.
07:16As a result, Canada seems to be trying to diversify its US-centric economy a bit more.
07:21Regardless, President Trump is expected to ramp up pressure on Canada even further.
07:25Given the situation, the trade war between the US and Canada doesn't seem likely to end easily.
07:29There's one more point worth addressing here.
07:31This recently revealed Canadian invasion scenario of the US shouldn't be taken as an operational order
07:35to actually wage war against America.
07:37The details covered in the published reports are closer to an analysis
07:40of how Canada might respond in the extreme hypothetical scenario of an American invasion.
07:44In other words, it doesn't mean a concrete war plan to fight the US right now has been finalized.
07:48Rather, its significance lies in the fact that they've started reviewing,
07:51from a national security perspective, scenarios they rarely considered in the past.
07:55And when looking at Canada's response,
07:56there is one more region we need to examine, the Arctic.
07:59Canada's security issues cannot be explained solely by its southern border with the United States.
08:03Canada holds extensive territory and maritime zones in the Arctic,
08:06and its northern region, including the Arctic Ocean and the Northwest Passage,
08:09is directly tied to its territorial sovereignty.
08:12Recently, the Canadian Armed Forces have also been bolstering their capabilities in the Arctic
08:15for surveillance, reconnaissance, maritime, land, and air operations,
08:18as well as the deployment of troops and equipment in remote areas.
08:21In 2026, they are enhancing their constant surveillance and response capabilities
08:25through multiple operations across the Arctic and northern regions.
08:28In the future, the Arctic is highly likely to see various disputes and conflicts emerge.
08:32If Canada joins hands with Russia and China to survive against the United States,
08:36it would become an enormous headache for the US.
08:39Right now, China claims to be a near-Arctic state
08:41and is attempting to expand its influence in the Arctic
08:43so they could easily see these ongoing disputes between the US and Canada as an opportunity.
