00:00Rounds of rain and thunderstorms and flash flooding.
00:03That has been the story the last week across Japan, especially central and southern Japan.
00:09Unfortunately, that weather pattern that's produced rain isn't changing.
00:14You can see it on the satellite.
00:16See how you have the clouds extending northeast of Japan back toward Beijing.
00:20That's a frontal boundary that remains stalled.
00:23And with additional energy moving along that boundary, there's going to be additional showers and thunderstorms with flash flooding this
00:31weekend in the early next week.
00:34Then potentially a bigger problem a week from now.
00:38See that area I've highlighted here, the high risk, the bright white.
00:41That's an area of showers and thunderstorms that's going to organize.
00:45And as we head into next week, we feel very confident within that red area that this system will likely
00:52become a typhoon.
00:54Now, a week from now, there will be that typhoon south of Japan, and then it gets tricky.
01:01Where does it go?
01:01There's kind of a fork in the road.
01:03The two steering influences are the upper high east of Japan and the dip in the jet stream west of
01:09Japan.
01:09If the high pressure system dominates and is the stronger of the two, then that typhoon will head toward China.
01:17But if the dip in the jet stream is stronger, then the typhoon would move toward Japan, and that could
01:23cause a lot of flooding.
01:24Right now, we think the most likely scenario would take that typhoon toward China.
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