Share Market Outlook: Which sectors could outperform in the coming week? Watch this detailed market strategy discussion covering IT, Auto, Gold, Silver, Realty, FMCG, Metals, Aviation and Q1 earnings. Learn why TCS results, earnings guidance, monsoon trends, rural demand and sector rotation could shape the next market move. Get expert insights on where the biggest investment opportunities may emerge.
क्या अगले हफ्ते शेयर बाजार में नई रैली शुरू होगी? इस खास चर्चा में जानिए किन सेक्टर्स में निवेश का सबसे बड़ा मौका बन सकता है। IT Sector में Bottom Formation, Auto की Strategy, Q1 Earnings Season का असर, TCS के नतीजों का महत्व, Gold और Silver का Outlook, साथ ही Aviation, Paint, Tyre, Oil Marketing, FMCG, Realty और Metal Sector पर एक्सपर्ट की राय। अगर आप अगले हफ्ते की Market Strategy और Investment Ideas जानना चाहते हैं, तो यह वीडियो अंत तक देखें।
#StockMarket #ShareMarket #Nifty #Sensex #ITStocks #AutoStocks #Gold #Silver #stocks #marketstrategy
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Stocks to Watch Today, July 8: Axis Bank, Adani Enterprises, Sun Pharma, HCL Tech, IOCL in Focus :: https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/stocks-to-watch-today-july-8-axis-bank-adani-enterprises-sun-pharma-hcl-tech-iocl-in-focus-1520717.html?ref=DMDesc
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~HT.178~ED.474~ED.472~VG.HM~
क्या अगले हफ्ते शेयर बाजार में नई रैली शुरू होगी? इस खास चर्चा में जानिए किन सेक्टर्स में निवेश का सबसे बड़ा मौका बन सकता है। IT Sector में Bottom Formation, Auto की Strategy, Q1 Earnings Season का असर, TCS के नतीजों का महत्व, Gold और Silver का Outlook, साथ ही Aviation, Paint, Tyre, Oil Marketing, FMCG, Realty और Metal Sector पर एक्सपर्ट की राय। अगर आप अगले हफ्ते की Market Strategy और Investment Ideas जानना चाहते हैं, तो यह वीडियो अंत तक देखें।
#StockMarket #ShareMarket #Nifty #Sensex #ITStocks #AutoStocks #Gold #Silver #stocks #marketstrategy
Also Read
THIS Multibagger Stock Delivers 388% Return In 5 Yrs, Announces Business Update | Do You Own? :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/this-multibagger-stock-delivers-388-return-in-5-yrs-announces-business-update-do-you-own-1520891.html?ref=DMDesc
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Why Is Stock Market Rising Today? Nifty 50 Jumps Above 24500 1st Time Since April 22 | Key Reasons Explained :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/why-stock-market-is-rising-today-nifty-50-above-24500-sensex-fii-crude-oil-price-q1-result-1520467.html?ref=DMDesc
~HT.178~ED.474~ED.472~VG.HM~
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NewsTranscript
00:03This whole week is going to be a roller coaster ride for Share Bazaar.
00:08If we say this, it will probably not be wrong.
00:10We have started with a very good note.
00:13We have started with 24,000 friends.
00:16But after that, Donald Trump came from a statement
00:21which gave the whole Bazaar, the whole Bazaar,
00:24which gave the whole Bazaar,
00:26and what was happening in the Bazaar?
00:29Everyone saw what was happening.
00:30The panics came from 23-800.
00:34The Bazaar, if we talk about 8 July,
00:36the Bazaar is still on 24,000.
00:43And on 10 July, when we are going to wrap up,
00:48the bulls are still in Share Bazaar,
00:51and the Bazaar is still on 24-200.
00:55The Bazaar is still on 24-200.
00:55So, if there are any geopolitical tensions,
00:59then the Bazaar is still reacting.
01:01Because the news flow was still hard,
01:03and the trading was still on 24-200.
01:06But if we look at it here,
01:07the Bazaar is still on 24-200.
01:09The bulls is still on 24-200.
01:11How long-term is still on 24-200?
01:12How long-term is still on 24-200?
01:13Is the ceasefire and Iran's ceasefire
01:15and the tensions started?
01:17If we look at it,
01:20the panic will still see the panic situation.
01:23Do you have more opportunities to increase the Bazaar?
01:38In our mind,
01:38the question is,
01:39which sectors are paid?
01:41How do we make our portfolio?
01:43And in the volatile situation and uncertain situation,
01:46if the Bazaar comes again,
01:48then what will be better for their portfolio?
01:52We will try to find out the answers to all questions.
01:56We will try to find out all questions.
01:57We are with Harshal Dhasani Ji.
02:00Sir, welcome to GoodRetants.
02:02Thank you so much.
02:03Thank you everyone.
02:03Thank you for having me.
02:04Namaste.
02:05Sir, first of all,
02:07let's conclude this week
02:07on the market.
02:09We will see what happened in the whole day.
02:13And in the next week,
02:15we will try to find out what we can do.
02:17We will try to find out what we can do.
02:21But in the meantime,
02:21we will try to find out what we can do next week.
02:31Well,
02:32if you will see this week,
02:33this week is a rollercoaster.
02:35If you will see Nifty,
02:36Trump tweeted,
02:38Nifty 500 points down.
02:39And in the next two days,
02:40Nifty has almost covered the full fall.
02:43The ball cap index,
02:44the mid cap index has covered its full fall.
02:47So I think,
02:48that the market is now,
02:50the US and Israel's war,
02:53the US-Iran's war,
02:54there is no difference between us.
02:56I think,
02:57even if you look at crude,
02:58crude oil today,
02:5980 dollars,
03:00and when you look at crude oil,
03:03it is going to be very positive for the markets.
03:05So what I personally believe is,
03:07that the bad time was in the markets,
03:09it was left behind.
03:10Of course,
03:11if there was an uncertainty,
03:13or a small event,
03:14such as Trump tweeted,
03:16the markets are going to react to it.
03:18Crude has seen a knee jerk reaction,
03:20the markets being universally promotional to crude,
03:23then the markets are down,
03:24but overall,
03:25if you look at crude oil,
03:27it has become sell-on-rise,
03:28or similarly,
03:30markets become buy-on-dip.
03:32If you look at crude oil,
03:33the spike in the market,
03:34the price of crude oil,
03:35the price of crude oil,
03:36the price of crude oil,
03:37the price of crude oil,
03:38and the price of crude oil,
03:47the price of crude oil,
03:49the grabber all
03:57on investment,
04:01but you have ground抵shed,
04:14But you have said that until the crude is 80 dollars per barrel is not up, until the market doesn't
04:21need to change the market.
04:22But now the situation is looking at that you think that the situation is normal in Hormuz.
04:29In Iran and the US, there were strikes again.
04:33There were strikes in the Chawahar court.
04:35There were also strikes in Hormuz.
04:37Although the bazaar didn't have a lot of difference.
04:41And the crude also didn't have a lot of difference in Harshal.
04:44When did you see Russia and Ukraine?
04:46If you can see Russia and Ukraine.
04:50Ukraine has killed Russia and Ukraine.
04:53But what is the difference between Russia and Ukraine?
04:56No.
04:57The markets have no problem with negative news.
04:59They always have negative news.
05:01We buy the markets.
05:03But the markets have a problem with uncertainty.
05:06What will happen, what will happen, what will happen.
05:08The uncertainty level is now reduced.
05:12People know that Iran and the US.
05:15They will have a small news.
05:18They will have a small strike.
05:19They will have a small strike in Russia and Ukraine.
05:21The market will not be affected.
05:23I think that after a point of time, it will not get affected.
05:26I don't think Iran will have a state of Hormuz.
05:29Let's see how the crude price fell down.
05:30If you can see.
05:31After that.
05:32The crude price has been down there.
05:33Saudi has had a lot of secret oil levels of crude oil in the market.
05:37The market is also at a market.
05:38Russia is in the discount.
05:39I think India and other countries have been ALL of crude oil oil already maintained.
05:45The payoff of crude oil and Russian oil to be made.
05:57But of course, markets are always supreme,
05:59they can always surprise you.
06:01Haan, crude makes spike,
06:02if 80 dollars came up to you,
06:03then you will have a cool-off
06:05or a sideways market.
06:09When this U.S. and Iran
06:12has a uncertainty,
06:13and when India-U.S.
06:15trade deal,
06:15which nobody does not talk about it,
06:17because at this point of time,
06:19everybody is very busy,
06:20that war is over.
06:22But if you look at war,
06:23three months before it started.
06:39I think once a war thing settles down,
06:49the markets will slowly and steadily
06:50start moving towards a new high.
06:52But like India-U.S. trade deal
06:54announced ho gya.
06:55Because aaj U.S. ka growth
06:57slowdown pe hai.
06:58There is really a problem.
07:00But at the same point of time,
07:02Trump ko chahiye ke Fed ake rate cut kare.
07:04But Fed rate cut kar nai sakta
07:06because U.S. ka inflation funda nahi ho hai.
07:08So at this point of time,
07:09U.S. is also stuck.
07:10U.S. ko chahiye ke rate cut ho,
07:12taa ki unki growth bade.
07:14But at the same point of time,
07:15unka inflation saada,
07:16to unko ye nahi chahi ke
07:17inflation paali problem face sa aaj.
07:19U.S. is struggling between that.
07:20At that point of time,
07:21I don't think that India ke oopar
07:22tariffs lagana is going to be
07:24a long term thing.
07:25Trump hai,
07:26tab tak thik hai uncertainty rahe ki.
07:27But I think once
07:28the Trump thing ends,
07:29India-U.S. relationship
07:31is not India-Trump relationship.
07:32So I think overall,
07:34markets are ready for making a new
07:36all time.
07:36India-U.S. ka trade deal
07:37bhi signed ho jayega chaldi.
07:41That is when you will see
07:43the markets giving a one-sided rally
07:45because 2-sala ka
07:46time of price correction
07:47go chukar.
07:49Okay.
07:50Toh agar haam
07:50bull case leger ke
07:51challenge asa ki
07:52aap bata raha hain
07:53Indian markets ke liye
07:54toh kya target hai sir?
07:55Agila kahan tak jayega
07:56bazaar jayega?
07:57Aapne all time high
07:58pe touch karega
07:59near future mo?
08:00Well,
08:01haam already
08:01aapne all time high
08:02ke kareeban hai.
08:03Mid cap index
08:03agar aap dekhenge
08:04to all time high
08:05pe a chukar.
08:05Small cap index
08:063%
08:07aapne all time high
08:08se neiche hai.
08:09Major problem
08:10in nifty.
08:10Nifty all time high
08:11ke paas kyu nahi
08:12jaa paa raha hain
08:12because IT
08:13neiche kee chaldi.
08:14Aap IT bhi
08:14thoda bhaut support
08:15kar raha hain.
08:16IT bhi abhi
08:16bichle 2-3 din
08:17se upar hain.
08:18Banks kaafi acha
08:18kar raha hain.
08:19So I think even
08:20nifty should do.
08:20Nifty ko tohla time
08:21laghe ga because
08:22nifty ke ander
08:22there are a lot
08:23of consumption
08:24in IT stocks
08:24which are on a
08:25slow down right now.
08:26But overall
08:27agar haap dekhenge
08:27in broader markets
08:28aaj ka agar haap
08:29advance declines
08:30ratio dekhenge
08:30toh more than
08:3175% of the market
08:33is green right now.
08:34So it's not
08:35index specific
08:35buying right now.
08:36It's not a
08:37stock specific
08:38or sector specific
08:39buying.
08:39It's all broad
08:40market buying right now.
08:41So I think
08:41overall there is
08:42a lot of buying
08:43in the market.
08:43I think nifty
08:44should do really well.
08:45Nifty is not one
08:47of the criteria
08:47also that we track.
08:49You look at
08:49the small cap index
08:50or the mid cap index
08:51or the BSE TRI
08:52500 index.
08:53But overall
08:54agar haap dekhenge
08:54toh we are expecting
08:55a very good
08:56performance this year.
08:57Maybe this year
08:59it's not an excellent
08:59performance
09:00but I think
09:01the base has been made.
09:03This year
09:04then the next year.
09:05Now question
09:06is not that
09:06it will happen
09:07or not.
09:07So question
09:08is this
09:08when will happen?
09:09Yes, when will happen?
09:10This year
09:11is my question
09:11but if you are
09:12saying this year
09:13or the next year
09:14if we are
09:15a little bit
09:16short term
09:17then
09:17which sectors
09:18should be
09:19in the radar
09:20which should be
09:21in the radar
09:21which sectors
09:22have better
09:24reversal
09:25when
09:26it's
09:36up
09:42because
09:44my favourite sector
09:46in terms of
09:47negative
09:47so
09:47IT
09:48TCS
09:49result
09:49is
09:502%
09:51correct
09:52as you saw
09:53But overall, if you look at IT companies, there is a fundamental problem in IT companies.
09:58PCS had 15,000,000 crore market cap, and now 7,000,000 crore market cap.
10:0315,000,000 crore market cap.
10:05But if you talk about PCS growth, it's about 3-4% growth.
10:09Quarter on quarter, it's about negative growth.
10:12Company, which is about 2-2% growth,
10:14it's about 16,000 crore market cap.
10:16So IT, I don't think it's over.
10:27So I feel that it is a sunset business until they pivot towards AI.
10:31When it doesn't happen, when IT companies, I will personally stay away.
10:35In technical terms, if you tell me, this is a dead cat bounce.
10:38It was a very bad expectation.
10:40It was a little bit bad.
10:43It was a little bit bad.
10:45But overall, I would want to stay away from IT.
10:48Now with IT, I will tell you a couple of sectors that I want to stay away from.
10:52Yes.
10:52Because IT, because of AI adoption in India is not so massive.
10:59In the US, they have been massively adopting AI.
11:03It's not that India will not do it.
11:04India is a country of smart people that is going to, down the line, adopt.
11:07Because of AI, it's going to be 20 people for the job.
11:10It's going to be 5 people.
11:11And I'm telling it to you from my personal experience.
11:14It's not like that.
11:15Today, in my company, 20 people's work is getting done by 5 people.
11:19So that is going to get a lot of layoffs coming in.
11:21When there are layoffs, there are wide-collar jobs.
11:24When there are layoffs, when there are layoffs,
11:37plus banks, which have kept loaned by EMIs.
11:40I don't have a job.
11:40How am I going to pay my EMIs?
11:42So consumption-related stocks, auto, banks, and real estate.
11:45I think they are going to be the second way of selling,
11:50like in IT.
11:51Conscious sectors are good.
11:53Everybody knows that right now, the global team is AI and semiconductors.
11:57Korea, Taiwan, Japan.
11:58Korea and Taiwan are so small and small countries.
12:01But their markets have taken over on the basis of one thing,
12:05that is AI and semiconductor.
12:06In India, there is no option for you to directly bet.
12:10So the only option that you have is to play via proxies.
12:12In the proxies, you can see that your best is power.
12:18HVDC companies, 2-3-3 years ago,
12:20the capacity is blocked.
12:22The government has, you think,
12:24China's four companies have a tender go to India.
12:27When the government knows that the demand is outspacing supply,
12:32the demand is so much more,
12:33that the Chinese companies have told us to come and build.
12:37So power is going to do.
12:39Amazing.
12:40Their valuation is expensive.
12:41But again,
12:43I think the kind of order books that they have,
12:452-3-3 years ago,
12:46the top line, bottom line sorted.
12:48Correct?
12:48Now, power of the proxy is metals.
12:51Metal, silver, copper, they are going to do fantastic.
12:53I think because their demand is not increasing.
12:55Supply is limited.
12:56Of course, metals will now be downfall.
12:59Because,
13:00the Fed was afraid that the rate of the Fed is going to do
13:02because in the US, the inflation is increasing.
13:03But the US's inflation data is seeing cool off.
13:06And the Fed is not going to do $40 trillion on the loan.
13:10So metals are settling down and they are turning back up.
13:13Gold, silver, copper, they are turning back up.
13:15So I think metals are going to do really well.
13:17Another thing, which is a very interesting space,
13:20which I have recently found out, I was studying.
13:22One is water management.
13:24Because AI, data centers,
13:26semiconductors,
13:26they need fresh water.
13:28Right?
13:29And these water management companies,
13:31they are doing fantastically well.
13:32For example,
13:33Ion exchange,
13:3416% up.
13:35500 crore,
13:36they are all making new all-time highs.
13:41Pump and water management companies are going to do really well.
13:44These are the three sectors,
13:45which I think,
13:46semiconductors and AI proxies are very big.
13:48With this,
13:49your pharma.
13:50Pharma,
13:51U.S.T.N.R. is 95-96.
13:53It is 50-50% export.
13:56They are earning in dollars.
13:57And when I convert dollars into AIR,
13:58they are making fabulous money on the exchange traders.
14:01So I think pharma is going to do really well.
14:03India,
14:04U.S.T.N.R. is going to do really well.
14:05So I think,
14:07these are the four major sectors,
14:09that I personally am looking at and studying.
14:12Metals,
14:13power,
14:13water management,
14:14and fargo.
14:15Okay.
14:15And if you talk about EV index,
14:18while you are saying that you are saying
14:19that it will be a little impact.
14:20But,
14:21in the auto,
14:21does it impact the petrol or fuel
14:23you can do that?
14:32I am betting that consumption will slow down.
14:35If consumption will slow down.
14:36then it will not be that if it will be petrol or EV.
14:39Second,
14:40the two biggest problems
14:42I feel.
14:43You see,
14:44in the quarter three,
14:45September,
14:46GST,
14:46September,
14:472015,
14:47GST,
14:4821%-18%
14:49Correct.
14:50which are the cars for the company,
14:52and not even even the ones they were.
14:54They would not buy for the company.
14:54Because it was the only way,
14:55all of them took it.
14:56Correct.
14:57Now, quarter three,
14:58quarter four,
14:58quarter four,
14:59quarter five,
15:00they are so high.
15:02Quarter three, quarter four,
15:03four five,
15:04they are so high.
15:06If you compare them with quarter three,
15:07quarter four,
15:07FI 27,
15:08your base is so high,
15:11that you will not compare them.
15:13So, year-on-year data,
15:14when you compare them,
15:15you will not see a massive growth.
15:16or stock all-time high
15:17you can see
15:19the volume and value
15:22these are the two things
15:23that make you money
15:24that you can get the number of gaadi
15:25and how much money you can get the number of gaadi
15:29I'm expecting a drop-down
15:31plus last year's base is so high
15:32that this year will be crossed
15:34so difficult
15:34now value
15:36gaadi is
15:37the raw material cost
15:39the tire
15:40the raw material is oil
15:41the price
15:42spike up
15:43which is the raw material
15:46the raw material cost is increased
15:48because of their total overall cost
15:51that has increased
15:51but they don't have the selling price
15:53they don't have the pressure passed
15:54so their profit margin shrinks
15:57so neither they have volume
15:59nor they have value
16:00so I think
16:01this level of auto-index
16:03I am not very comfortable
16:04at these valuations
16:05to buy
16:06because I don't see
16:07a massive upset
16:08I don't see
16:08that it will be 2-3-3
16:10I would rather stay on the sidelines
16:13and wait for the consumption
16:14to slow down
16:14so if you have to buy
16:15it may be they become
16:16an attractive sector
16:17to add up on
16:17okay
16:19you have to have a specific term
16:23that was AI
16:24when we were talking about IT index
16:27Herschel
16:28we have recently seen
16:29COSPI
16:30had crashed so bad
16:39that the company's growth
16:44into the growth rate
16:44that will be ANG
16:55companies
16:55की अभी जो growth
16:56है
16:57जो index में
16:58recovery दिख रही है
16:59वो short term है
17:00थोड़ा confusion है
17:01आपर
17:03Cospi को अज
17:04bisect कर ले
17:05Cospi सिफ
17:062 stop के नाम पर भागा है
17:07वो है SK Hynix
17:08और Samsung
17:09अगर आज आज आप
17:10SK Hynix
17:11और Samsung
17:11has given
17:12a massive rally
17:13जो आपने कहा
17:14last 3 session में
17:15उनमें काफी sell-off आया
17:16but
17:17वो 3 महीने
17:18जो 3 session का
17:19जो sell-off का
17:20total value था
17:21उसमें पिछले
17:22एक महीने के
17:22returns भी खतम नहीं हुए
17:23तो अगर आप इनके
17:24returns देखेंगे
17:25जो इनोंने returns डाले है
17:26पिछले
17:27करीबन डेट साल में
17:28Samsung
17:298 होना हो चुका है
17:30SK Hynix
17:318 होना हो चुका है
17:32और उसके अंदर
17:47because
17:47आपको एकदम
17:48simple तरीके से बता दो
17:50what is the fundamental
17:50matrix that everybody uses
17:52P, price to earning ratio
17:53एक कमनी का
17:54valuation क्या है
17:55उसके earnings के उपर
17:56right
17:57SK Hynix और Samsung
17:58अच 30-30 के P.E. पे चलो है
18:00even after 8X rise
18:028 होना बढ़ने के बाद
18:04भी उनके P.E. 30
18:05इसका मतलब ये है
18:06कि उनका top line
18:07और bottom line
18:08उस speed से बढ़ रहा है
18:10ऐसा ही नहीं
18:10उनको valuations मिल रहा है
18:12और अगर मैं आज आप
18:12आपकोई question कुछता हू
18:14correct
18:14as a foreign institutional investor
18:16आज आप Indian investor
18:18आपके पास mutual funds
18:18और Indian stocks को
18:19थोड़के जादा
18:20लंबे चोड़ा options है नहीं
18:22but as a foreign
18:22institutional investor
18:23आपके पास option है
18:25NPDIA खरीदने को
18:39billion dollar company in US
18:41हम हमारी company में
18:43Salesforce use करते है
18:44for managing leads
18:45हम वी उस्टू पे
18:46money in lakhs
18:48आज हमने हमारा
18:49in-house CRM बना लिया
18:50same as Salesforce
18:52the point is
18:53आप Salesforce का
18:54share price देखे
18:5560% नीचे
18:56AI is very powerful
18:58it is helping you
18:59build different services
19:00in a very short span of time
19:02और अब देखे
19:03TCS in-force
19:04price is everything
19:06price speaks everything
19:07हमें कुछ भी लगे
19:08fundamental जिसके अच्छे है
19:09ये bottom-out हो चुगा
19:10ये value
19:11price क्या कह रहा है
19:12that is the most important
19:13और price नहीं बना रहा है
19:14के AI is going up
19:16your IT is coming now
19:18we are reaching a stage
19:20where the valuations
19:21will now turn into extreme
19:23के
19:24जो है यहां से
19:25उनको multiples
19:26एक्टम extreme मिले
19:2750-60-80
19:28that is when we are
19:29entering into an AI bubble
19:31AI bubble हो हो होता है
19:32जब everybody is
19:37to buy US stocks
19:38so I think
19:39down the line
19:40Korea
19:40has done a great performance
19:42but I don't think that
19:43it has entered into a bubble
19:44it is expensive
19:44but it has not entered into a bubble
19:46and similarly for IT
19:48IT ने काफी करेक किया
19:49खुटा मुटा बाउंस आ सकता है
19:51but I don't think that
19:53the fall for IT is over
19:55until they do not pivot towards AI
19:56because कल आके
19:57क्लॉड को एक नया फीचर निकाले
19:59और एक और बंद हो जाएगा
20:07हमारा एक सेशन है हर्षिल
20:08जसको
20:09stocks नीती कहता है
20:10क्योंकि हम यहां पर
20:11buy sale recommendation तो नहीं देंगे
20:12stocks को लेकर के
20:13but हम sectors पर discuss कर सकते हैं
20:15और खास्तोर से थोड़ा
20:16earning season को लेकर के
20:18आप से discussion करना चाहते हैं
20:19हाला कि हम क्योंकि
20:20idea discuss कर रहा है
20:21और TCS के जो है
20:22वो नतीजे आ चुकी है
20:23quarter one के
20:24stock बेतर perform कर रहा है
20:26लेकिन किस तरीके के
20:27result आए एक बाद में
20:28वो भी अपने viewers को
20:29बता देती हूं कि
20:30नतीजे आए क्या है
20:31और उसके बाद
20:32brokerages की
20:33उस स्टॉक के ओपर
20:34क्या रहा है
20:35यह हम बता देते
20:36अपने viewers को
20:37तो basically
20:38TCS ने quarter one में
20:40FY27 के थोड़े
20:41mixed results दिये है
20:42net profit की बात करें
20:43तो 13,349 करोड रुपे रहा है
20:46year on year basis पर
20:47लगभग 5 फीसिदी की बढ़ाता है
20:49अगर तूब इक्सार्त हम बात करें
20:51तो 4.62% की बढ़ोत्री है
20:53revenue 72,275 करोड रहा है
20:57यहां भी 14 फीसिदी की बढ़ोत्री दिखा रहा है
21:00year on year basis पर TCS
21:03dividend का भी फैसला ले लिया गया है
21:06एक रुपे की face value उपर
21:0712 रुपे प्रतिशेर
21:08यानि की 1200% का
21:10अंतरिम dividend देने का एलान किया गया है
21:12वही पर अगर हम लोग employee numbers की बात करें
21:16तो June टमाई में यानि quarterly basis पे
21:199200 से ज्यादा बढ़कर यह
21:21मतलब लगब 9200 employees ज्यादा
21:24इन्होंने add किये हैं और
21:261.6% की growth यहां पर quarter on quarter basis पे दिख रही है
21:30और brokerages की अगर हम राय माने तो
21:32ज्यादे दिर brokerages ने जैसे की Goldman Sharks,
21:35Novama, इस तरीके के कई brokerages की report आई है
21:38जहां पर hold की rating दी गई है,
21:40कई brokerages ने buy की rating भी दी है,
21:43IT के और भी results आने वाले हैं,
21:45earning season से आप क्या expect कर रहे हैं Harshan,
21:48TCS का result क्या यह दिखा रहा है क्योंकि हम
21:50मान के चल रहे थे कि quarter one मे earnings more or less
21:53DV आने वाली है,
21:54हलाकि उस पर Iran और US का भी असर समझ में आ रहा था,
21:58IT सेक्टर की बात करें तो AI का असर समझ में आ रहा था,
22:02लेकिन quarter one की earnings से शुरुआ TCS के साथ हुई
22:05थोड़े mixed result बट फिर भी bazaar thumbs up देता हुआ दिखाई दे रहा है इसको,
22:09तो आगे की earnings quarter one में बहतर उनीट करें?
22:13बजार अगर हम सब आपको बता दो 2% के आपको खुला था,
22:17अभी 8% में करीबन है,
22:19अगर आप उसका आज प्राइस देखेंगे तो 2,000 रुबे के आसपास ट्रेड करा,
22:22अगर मैं आपको एक example और comparison के तरीके पर दो,
22:252019, pre-COVID, TCS का high था 200,
22:31so pre-COVID अगर आपने TCS में पैसे लगाये होते हैं,
22:35आज 6 साल बार आप 10% नीचे हैं,
22:37so TCS का result as expected,
22:41जो slowdown आया, that was expected,
22:43but अगर आप देखेंगे तो IT companies के लिए ये एक फाइदेगा सौदा है,
22:48because 96 USD आये हैं ना, उनका पूरा धंदा export है,
22:52dollar में पैसे आ रहे हैं, तो conversion पे देश्वर में mad money,
22:55जैसे pharma बना रहा है, pharma फाइदा उटा रहा है,
22:58IT के पास इतना बढ़िया advantage है,
23:01of 96, 97, still their revenues are not picking up, correct,
23:05जैसे मैंने आपके साथ बात की, कि कर जाके जब इंडिया,
23:08US की trade deal sign हो जाएगी, और ये work खतम हो जाएगी,
23:11क्या आपको लगता है कि USDIR 96 पे होगा वो टाइम पा,
23:14USDIR crash होके 90 आजाएगा,
23:16and at that point of time, IT के existing earnings और गिर जाएगे,
23:20so my personal understanding of IT is that,
23:24कि जैसे आपने TCS का result का,
23:26it's just a normal के कम खराब है,
23:30ऐसा नहीं के अच्छा है, result कम खराब है,
23:33but overall the problem is bad,
23:34और जो आप brokerage reports की बात कर रहें,
23:36correct?
23:37मैं कहता हो आप brokerage reports को side में रखके,
23:39आप TCS और Infosys का holding statement खोले,
23:41FII और DII data,
23:44DII's have been constantly buying for the last one and a half year,
23:47जो भी my recommendation portfolio में,
23:49पिछले 1.5 साल से IT खरीद ही रहे,
23:51और 1.5 साल में आपको भी बता IT की क्या आलत होगे,
23:5450% होगे,
23:54So at that point of time it doesn't matter
23:57कि domestic institutional investors की brokerage report में
23:59buy लिखा रहे या hold लिखा रहे,
24:01अगर आप Goldman Sachs की बात करते हैं,
24:03which is probably a foreign institution,
24:06अब FII's का data check कीजिए,
24:07कि वो लोग IT में क्या करें,
24:08they are constant selling,
24:10so it doesn't matter कि वो लोग buy करने बोल रहे
24:12या sell करने बोल रहे,
24:13because वो खुद बेच रहे,
24:14और DIAs तो buy करी रहे,
24:16DIAs have been constant support to the idea,
24:18because अगर DIAs का buying नहीं होता है,
24:20PCS Infosys का FII, DIA holding
24:22कोल के last 4 quarter का देख लिजा,
24:24अगर DIAs का constant support नहीं होता,
24:26तो आज यह stock,
24:27जहां पे उससे और 15-15-20% नीच होता है,
24:30So overall, I think that
24:32do not get carried away with brokerage reports,
24:35understand के
24:36company का growth क्या,
24:37आज share market में share उपर क्यों जाता है,
24:40because company grow कर रहा है,
24:42अगर company de-grow कर रहा है,
24:44तो share नीचे आ रहा है,
24:44it's a simple logic,
24:47जब तक company वापस growth के trajectory पर नहीं जाता है,
24:501.5-3% की growth में
24:5115-16 का multiple is also expensive,
24:54अगर company 10-12% का growth करता है,
24:57तब जागा 15-16-20 का multiple देता है,
24:59जब तक 10-12% की growth नहीं आती है,
25:03तब तक I don't think that IT is something that you should bet upon,
25:05और इतने बड़ी है sectors है,
25:07that India is such a diverse market,
25:09you have 15 sectors to bet upon,
25:11why do you wanna catch a calling knife?
25:13थोड़ा public sector की तरफ भी चलता है,
25:16क्योंकि public sector पे इन दोनों मुझा लग रहा है थोड़ा
25:19लोगों का focus कम है,
25:20लेकिन फिर भी,
25:21जिन companies के उपर focus है,
25:23वहाँ पर अच्छा return भी हमें देखने को मिला है,
25:26अगर हम public sector की तरफ चलें,
25:27तो आज का अगर हम data देखें,
25:29मैं थोड़ा railway stocks की तरफ जाना चाहूंगी,
25:32अगर आज का data देखें,
25:33railway में तो हमारे पास RBNL
25:35लग भग 4 पीसिदी से जादा की तेजी दिखा रहा था,
25:3810 July की यह बात है,
25:40Railtail में 3.5 पीसिदी की तेजी थी,
25:42Aircon में 2.5 पीसिदी से जादा की तेजी,
25:45Jupiter Wagons में 2.5 पीसिदी से जादा की तेजी,
25:48लेकिन यह सिर्फ एक दिन का data है,
25:4910 July का,
25:50हम अगर पूरे वीक की performance की बात करें,
25:53तो यह sector काफी कमजोर रहा है,
25:55Railway जैसे stocks या defense जैसे stocks में bet लगाना कितना सही है यह सवाल,
26:01क्योंकि यहां पर bet लगाने पर हमें थोड़ा long term perspective रखना पड़ता है,
26:05धीमे चलने वाले stocks हैं,
26:11मैं आपको railways और defense दोर अलग करके बगाता हूं,
26:14Railways धीमे चल रहे हैं,
26:15पर एक ताइम पर,
26:16Railways वार फास्टेस्ट मुविंग सब्सक्राइब,
26:19RVNL रोगा था,
26:21देखे,
26:21at the end of the day,
26:23what matters is growth,
26:24जो हमने पीछे बात की,
26:26correct?
26:26मैं आपको एक statistical figure देता हूं,
26:28RVNL का,
26:29ठीक है,
26:30every revenue that I'm talking about,
26:32you can go and check,
26:33RVNL का last 2023 में bull run start हुआ था,
26:37जब वो 40 रुपे का stock,
26:38साढ़े 600 रुपे तक चले गया,
26:40right?
26:41That means,
26:42RVNL 16 गुना बढ़ा था,
26:4416 times,
26:45in two years,
26:46ठीक है,
26:4716 times जब share price बढ़ा,
26:49तो उसका revenue,
26:51उसका waterline need,
26:51बहुत बढ़ा होगा,
26:52right?
26:53आपको RVNL का,
26:54मैं 3 साल का revenue बढ़ात हूं,
26:5620,000 करोर,
26:5620,000 करोर,
26:5720,000 करोर,
26:591300 profit,
27:00उसका जो profit है,
27:011300 करोर,
27:011000 करोर,
27:02900 करोर,
27:03So, revenue flat,
27:05bottom line में,
27:06downfall,
27:07stock,
27:0716 करोण,
27:08sustain करने नहीं बढ़ा,
27:10so at the end of the day,
27:12RVNL के साथ जो हो रहा है,
27:13वही same IRCON, IRFC,
27:15सबके साथ हो रहा है,
27:16they gave a massive run-up,
27:18in the name of order books,
27:20massive run-ups,
27:21आज भी उनके पास order books है,
27:24order books से,
27:25आपकी कंपनी का valuation नहीं आ,
27:27यह नहीं कहा जा सकता,
27:28कि मेरे पास 2,000 करोर के order book है,
27:30मेरे पास 5,000,000 करोर के order book है,
27:31it sales के है,
27:32what is the conversion,
27:34what are you making out of it,
27:36that is the answer,
27:37so RVNL का revenue,
27:39flat है,
27:40bottom line में downfall है,
27:41stock में भी downfall में आने वाल है,
27:43वो order book के नाम पे,
27:44it's short,
27:45now if you talk about defense,
27:47defense,
27:48same story,
27:49order books massive,
27:50पीचे जो हन्त बना था,
27:51यह इंडिया,
27:52आत्मनिल बार यह,
27:54agreed,
27:54everything is important,
27:55but at the end of the day,
27:57company works on top line and bottom line,
27:59the valuations,
28:00जब तक,
28:01company के sales नहीं बढ़ते,
28:02आज HAL के पास,
28:04एक लाग करोड के order book होगे,
28:05but वो execution ही नहीं कर पा रहे,
28:07वो तेजस बना के यहीं नहीं पा रहे,
28:09तो at the end of the day,
28:10वो उनके top line और bottom line में आ लहीं नहीं पा रहे,
28:13जब तक उनके top line और bottom line में नहीं आए गया,
28:29आप देखेंगे defense में जब कुछ wars ऐसा situation हो जाता है,
28:32जब कोई बड़ा order मिल जाता है तो इन में 20 नहीं आ जाती है,
28:35पर अगले 5 दिन के अंदर हो पूरा selling हो के खतम हो जाता है,
28:38so what I feel is,
28:39railways and defense are one of those counters where,
28:42आप सिर्फ उनके sales और profit figure पे नजर रखे,
28:45जिस दिन आपको उनके sales और profit figure में growth आते होए दिखे,
28:49that is the day you buy the market,
28:51तब तक stay away from them,
28:53because आपने देख लिए 600 गार भी आ रहा है,
28:55जो 40 रुपे से 600 गया,
28:57आज 300 रुपे भी आ गया है तो भी कोई लेने के लिए ready नहीं,
29:01because there is no growth,
29:02जब तक growth नहीं है तब तक वो sector का कोई value नहीं है,
29:06तो अगर हमें public sector companies की तरफ देखना है,
29:09तो आपके पास है कुछ ideas कि हम किसको radar पर रख सकते हैं अभी?
29:14Public sector companies का problem बता दो,
29:16public sector companies like,
29:18I was one of the biggest lovers of public sector companies in 2023-2024,
29:22जब उनमें momentum था,
29:25आज public sector companies का problem बता दो,
29:27कि उन्हें 2023-2024 पे इतना उठा के उपर लेके चले गए,
29:31कि आज उनके sales और bottom line उनसे match ही नहीं करवारे,
29:34एक है metals जो थोड़ा better कर रहे हैं,
29:36because metals have a structural development again connected to AI and semiconductors,
29:40हिंदुस्तान copper, national aluminum, NMDC, GMDC,
29:44यह सब बढ़िया कर,
29:45but overall अगर आप देखेंगे,
29:46उसको छोड़ के,
29:48आप कोई भी sector ले लिजे,
29:49defense, railways, power,
29:51power में आपके पास SJVN, NHPC,
29:54PFC, REC,
29:55उन्होंने क्या performance दिया,
29:57but again, all of them are sideways right now,
30:00so I believe that,
30:01जब तक इनके अंदर,
30:02वो growth की engines नहीं आते,
30:04उनके revenue on bottom line में,
30:06तब तक I don't think that they are worth a bet,
30:152020 में अडानी था,
30:162023 में आपके PSUs थे,
30:192025 और 26 में AI और Semiconductors है,
30:22एक sector,
30:23जब एक bull run में चल जाता है,
30:25उसके बाद वो अगले तीन या चार bull run तक नहीं चलता,
30:27आप देखें, 2021-2021 में अडानी चला था,
30:30उसके बाद 2023-2024 का अडाना है,
30:44इतने heavy valuations के पिटा के ले जाते,
30:46कि चार-पात साल लगते कि उनके revenue और bottom line उस valuation को match कर सके,
30:52So I feel that PSUs,
30:54except metals,
30:55I don't think that any other PSUs are going to do really well.
31:02Okay, last segment or last question मेरा कि हमारा segment है कि नवेशक क्या करें,
31:08और मेरा सवाल भी आई है कि नवेशक क्या करें,
31:11और इसमें मैं ये भी add-on करवाना चाहूंगे,
31:14हर्शल कि अभी हम stocks की बात तो कर रहे हैं,
31:17लेकिन अगर हम overall stocks को देख लें या बाजार को देख लें,
31:21कहां पर नवेश बढ़ाना चाहिए, अलग-अलग asset classes में,
31:26reality में बढ़ाएं, gold, silver में बढ़ाएं,
31:28या बाजार में बढ़ाएं ये भी एक broad market के तो पर आपसे जाना चाहूंगी,
31:33और अगर बाजार में बढ़ाते हैं,
31:35तो किस तरीके के sectors में बढ़ाएं ये आपने बता दिया है,
31:38पर कितना बढ़ा है, ये आपसे जाना चाहते है.
31:41Well, whatever I am speaking right now is my personal view.
31:44I always deserve the right to be wrong.
31:47मुझे लगता है personally,
31:49कि you should have a small allocation of your portfolio to gold and silver,
31:52because gold and silver is naturally a hedge, a downfall.
31:55Gold is the only thing that can protect you against it.
31:58Silver is again a monetary metal plus an industrial metal.
32:02So, silver and gold will balance out your portfolio.
32:04I think the rest portion of yours should be into Indian equity.
32:09I don't think this is the point that you go and go and chase the US market.
32:13Because,
32:14like we have to invest in India in the US market,
32:16zero and throw.
32:19Their markets are already expensive.
32:22But I don't,
32:23I hope,
32:24that if we Indian's money,
32:25they don't exist liquidity for them.
32:27That we don't have to invest in India's market.
32:30That we don't have to invest in the US market.
32:32So, I feel that Indian markets,
32:35we have a fair share of price and time connection.
32:38I think Indian markets are giving you a fantastic opportunity to invest across.
32:43But,
32:44be very specific about the sectors.
32:49But,
33:09this is not the same market.
33:11This is very objective.
33:12Investors have been very marked for 2 years,
33:15they have got very marked.
33:16very cautious
33:16that this thing
33:17is good
33:18and this thing
33:18is not late
33:19you can see the IPO
33:19as well
33:20every IPO
33:21was open
33:2220-25-40%
33:23and people
33:24have been very cautious
33:25that this IPO
33:26has to be made
33:26and this IPO
33:27is not going to be
33:29an easy run
33:30that you will
33:31have to be
33:31very selective
33:32and I think
33:34I think the markets
33:35are going to do
33:35really well
33:36now the trade
33:36will get a lot
33:37of money
33:38Okay
33:39So long term
33:40perspective
33:40keep the Bazaar
33:41for optimism
33:42but stock
33:43selection
33:44is very specific
33:45and it should
33:46be very detailed
33:47analysis
33:49because
33:49Harshal
33:50has said
33:51that Bazaar
33:52is also trying to
33:52understand all the factors
33:54and it is trying to
33:56respond to it
33:56according to it
33:57and it is trying to
33:58respond to it
33:58and the bull run
34:00is different
34:01and the past
34:02performance
34:03of Bazaar
34:04is not giving
34:04the guarantee
34:05that the performance
34:07will be coming
34:08So do your analysis
34:09and analyze the risk profile
34:11and the financial advisor
34:12you must take it
34:13Harshal
34:14and thank you
34:14for joining us
34:15today
34:15Thank you
34:18Anima
34:18Thank you so much
34:19Just a short disclaimer
34:20I talked about stocks
34:21and sectors
34:23I talked about
34:24I can have my
34:25personal position
34:25and my company
34:26can have positions
34:27there is no
34:28buy-sell recommendation
34:29please
34:29consult your financial advisor
34:30and take something
34:31before you
34:32Thank you so much
34:33Anima
34:33Thank you
34:35Thank you
34:36Thank you
34:36Thank you
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