00:00We're wrapping up one storm on the feed and batting down the hatches.
00:04There's going to be another storm this weekend.
00:07The weekend storm, though, much different than its predecessor.
00:10It's not going to be as large in scope, but it could be quite impactful.
00:15Speaking of impacts, I want to show you this.
00:17This is the snowfall on the ground here this morning.
00:20For the first time all season, over 50% of the United States is covered in snow and ice,
00:25and this is all due to our weekend storm with the snow and ice across the south.
00:31It looks to me, we have a little snow here in Nebraska,
00:36but it looks to me like every state has snow on it except Florida.
00:40Some in Mississippi, a little bit in Alabama, Georgia.
00:43I mean, some rough spots here in Nebraska, but that's what it looks like.
00:46But I want to get right to the chaser.
00:49Here's our next area that we're going to be looking at here as we head toward the weekend.
00:55We expect a storm to form here as we get into the weekend Saturday.
00:59Now, where this storm goes is the million-dollar question.
01:02I think it has a number of possibilities.
01:06I think it's likely of this area that we have the potential.
01:10I think it's New England that's going to have the highest threat.
01:13I'll tell you that and show you why.
01:15But a couple of talking points.
01:17Less area impacted.
01:20It's going to end up being a more intense storm over time,
01:23which means you're going to have a lot of wind with this, especially on the coast.
01:27And I'll tell you what, there is the potential, the potential,
01:30if this storm would hug the coast, that this would turn into a blizzard,
01:34as far south as the Carolinas.
01:36The potential's there.
01:38It's going to be a real tricky forecast.
01:40I want to break it down for you.
01:41And let's start with what we always start with.
01:45Why I am more optimistic that there's going to be another storm
01:50is we have widespread cold once again.
01:53Take a look at this.
01:54I mean, here's our two-meter temperatures.
01:56Here's the surface temperatures.
01:58This is tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday.
02:01All right, here comes your next injection.
02:02Here's your next injection.
02:04And what do we always talk about?
02:05When you have an injection of cold air, you have a snowfall threat.
02:09That doesn't mean you're going to get it, but that's your opportunity.
02:11Here's the, look at the cold air coming in as we get into Friday and Saturday.
02:15There we go.
02:16Some very cold air.
02:18Once again, take a look at the 32-degree line.
02:22It's going all the way down to I-10.
02:24A lot of cold air.
02:26Now, the reason we're getting that cold air is we have energy
02:30that's going to be dipping down into the jet stream.
02:33Let me take it to you here.
02:34Here's the European motto.
02:35Here it comes.
02:36Now, this storm's going to be really tricky.
02:38The last storm, we felt very confident that there would be a wide area of snow and ice.
02:44This is more of a coastal storm.
02:47Does the storm come up the coast or does it go out to sea?
02:51Let me show you the European.
02:53This is what's bringing down the cold air.
02:55This dip in the jet stream.
02:56Now, watch what it does.
02:58Watch as we go forward.
02:59This is the European motto.
03:00Friday night, Saturday morning.
03:03Here we go.
03:04Saturday afternoon, Saturday evening.
03:05You've got a closed-off upper low right over Charlotte, North Carolina.
03:09There it is.
03:10What that's going to do, you've got a lot of cold air.
03:13You bring Atlantic moisture in.
03:15Voila!
03:15You get snow right up the Appalachian chain.
03:18I'll show you the surface map in a little bit.
03:21This is European AI.
03:22Very similar to the European.
03:24Look at that.
03:25There's the European AI at 7 o'clock Saturday.
03:28There's the European.
03:29About the same.
03:30Sunday morning, European AI.
03:32European operational.
03:34Let's take a look at the GFS.
03:36I don't know why.
03:37The model's just, I don't know what's going on with this model.
03:40But you know what?
03:41Let's take a look at it.
03:42It has the same idea.
03:43Big dip in the jet stream coming here.
03:45But it takes most of the jet stream offshore.
03:50See how it goes south?
03:51This would be a near miss for much of the country, except where?
03:56New England.
03:57This is the GFS AI model.
04:00Not as deep.
04:01This would be a miss as well.
04:03Not much any snow at all with this.
04:05The UK met, not deep enough with the upper low.
04:09That wouldn't be much of snow for anybody.
04:12Let me show you the surface map here.
04:14This is the European model.
04:15Remember, deeper upper low.
04:18Here we go.
04:18Look at that.
04:19That would have snow.
04:20I mean, even some snow and ice down into the deep south, as we talked about.
04:25Look at this.
04:26Look at the snow.
04:27Raleigh, Charlotte, Washington, D.C.
04:30And this would have the potential for a blizzard along the mid-Atlantic coast up in New England.
04:37See how it sits there?
04:38That's the European.
04:40Remember, it has a stronger, farther south upper low.
04:44Here's the European AI.
04:47Another snow and ice across the southeast.
04:49Look at the snowstorm.
04:51Appalachians right up in the Philly, D.C.
04:55This would turn into a blizzard if this were to be right.
04:58Now, the GFS model, all offshore.
05:02Remember I told you about that?
05:03Mostly offshore, but you'd have to keep an eye on it.
05:06It's a close call.
05:08Mid-Atlantic coast in New England.
05:10The GFS AI model has it offshore.
05:14The UK Met, mostly offshore.
05:16Let me go back to this map.
05:18I want to go back to this map.
05:20I want to give you an idea of what we're thinking here.
05:25All right.
05:26The snow potential, you can see where we have it.
05:29Of this area, if you told me, Bernie, what is the most likely area for a snowstorm right now?
05:37Now, anybody in blue, you're in the game.
05:40But to me, this would be the area.
05:43I'd take it right into here.
05:45This has the highest potential right now.
05:47Certainly, New England, but Eastern Carolinas.
05:52The snow and the ice, the farther north, I believe, probably I-20 on north, would have the highest probability of the ice in here.
06:01But I'll tell you what.
06:03We have to watch this.
06:05And because there's an injection of, once again, Arctic air,
06:09that makes me very concerned that any storm that would form would have the ability to intensify
06:18and that this could actually turn into a blizzard along the East Coast.
06:25The timing of that would be as we head into the upcoming weekend.
06:30Now, we've got plenty of time to look at this, but the concern certainly is there.
06:39All right.
06:39I'm not going to go anywhere throughout the week on the feed.
06:42We're going to hone in on this storm.
06:45And trust me, we'll have you ready before the weekend approaches.
06:48Let's go.
Comments