- 7 months ago
Preeti Choudhry anchors this Special Report from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation building as Maharashtra civic poll results indicate a significant political shift. The Mahayuti alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and Eknath Shinde, secures a dominant position across 29 municipalities. Analysts Rajdeep Sardesai, Sahil Joshi, and Dhawal Kulkarni join the discussion to examine the BJP's emergence as the primary force in India's wealthiest civic body. The report details the impact on the Thackeray and Pawar families, noting a decline in traditional regional brand influence. Devendra Fadnavis is identified as the architect of this electoral strategy, with the panel evaluating his potential transition into national politics by 2029. Key topics include the fragmentation of the Muslim vote, the systematic dismantling of regional rivals like the Shiv Sena and NCP, and the evolving political landscape of Mumbai. The program concludes that the BJP's urban appeal and strategic alliances have fundamentally altered the Maharashtra political map, forcing the opposition to reinvent their strategies.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching To The Point, I'm Preeti Chaudhary, well we come to you
00:23from the virtual stunning building though of the Brihans Mumbai Corporation building right
00:29behind me but till now we don't quite know who's going to occupy this building because viewers
00:34till now while there's a saffron sweep saffron surge across the length and breadth of Maharashtra
00:41as 29 municipalities have gone to polls where Mumbai BMC is concerned it is going down to the
00:48wire is what we are hearing though the BJP is ahead but still shy of the halfway mark lots going on
00:55counting began at 10 a.m this morning but this time around there were 46 wads 46 wads at a time
01:02that were being counted and it's 227 wads in all we're going to try and get in all the latest coming
01:08in from our reporters on ground and why the delay what's happening who's ahead right now clearly
01:13it is the Mahayuti it is the BJP and Eknad Shinde that are in pole position to get their mayor in all
01:21possibility and probability a BJP mayor in the saddle where BMC is concerned and the building
01:28behind me is concerned yet right now we cannot call this election because the halfway mark
01:36is still shy whether Mahayuti is concerned I'm going to get you all of that we have Rajdeep
01:42Saundasai Sahil Joshi my colleague both of them joining me in just a short while breaking it down for you
01:47our panel of experts and our reporters on ground first up allow me to take you through the headlines
01:52it is a sweeping win for the Mahayuti in the Maharashtra civic body pose but a much closer
02:01contest in the BMC trends indicate BJP set to edge past the majority mark triggering celebrations by team
02:10partners it's a big India today in fact Maharashtra state election commission bars the use of marker pens in
02:23the upcoming Zilla Parishad election after massive controversy yesterday in the BMC elections where
02:30marker pens were used with indelible ink ahead of the Tamil Nadu polls India today speaks exclusively to
02:43AIDMK General Secretary E Palaniswamy he lays he says there is no VJ factor in Tamil Nadu full interview later
02:54Sanjay Kapoor's inheritance dispute takes yet another turn Supreme Court issues notice to
03:05Karishma Kapoor on a plea filed by late industrialist third wife Priya Sachdev seeking copy of their divorce documents
03:12Amidst US when as well attentions when as well an opposition leader Maria Corina Machado presents her
03:29Nobel Peace Prize to Trump Trump confirms possession of the medal
03:33all right big news break coming in right on top of 7pm wild viewers it is party number one for the
03:58Bharatiya Janata party across the municipalities of Maharashtra BMC could be going down to the wire neck-in-neck
04:05battle for India's richest civic body a saffron sweep in Maharashtra but just not yet in Mumbai what our sources
04:13our reporters are telling us from ground is that the BJP and the Eknat Shinde combined might just edge ahead
04:21and touch the halfway mark but it doesn't look like a comfortable sweeping win at least where the BMC
04:28is concerns trend show BJP still leading in Mumbai counting has been done in just 187 wads of the
04:36227 wads in Mumbai 10 wads have been stuck due to display issues we are being told counting still
04:43underway in 30 wads and even till now the BJP and the Eknat Shinde combined is shy of the halfway mark
04:52what does that mean well it's a like I said it's not so easy right now on ground of what we are
05:00getting in reports on let's cut across right now immediately to my colleague Vidya who's been
05:06reporting Vidya from 8am you and I spoke last you know we've been speaking through and through do we
05:12have Vidya with us yes we do so Vidya quick what's going on it's now 7pm yet counting isn't complete
05:21while other municipalities have celebrated BJP is right on top in where BMC is concerned still 30
05:29wads to be counted and the halfway marks yet not reached by the Mahayuti
05:33well Preeti the kind of system that they had developed though it was said that each
05:41ward counting will be done extremely fast and that in a couple of hours it should get over
05:45however we saw that because of 227 wads and only 29 30 centers where the counting was really happening
05:51they put in about you know each counting center had about 10 and the wads like two wads were being
05:58counted at one time however there was some technical snacks that we had seen even in the
06:03morning when I was at the Wilson College counting center one the accounting really did not start at
06:0910 it started a little after that and immediately after that when the first ward was counted you know
06:15since there was the margin was quite low we could see that the you know party leaders who were there
06:20inside the party workers they were questioning the RO they wanted some recount probably some recounting
06:26though no no one really confirmed that but there were arguments that were happening that we could
06:30see inside the counting center similarly there was technical snacks also that was witnessed and in
06:36these 10 wads especially the technical snack is one of the reasons being cited for this entire hitch
06:43wherein the entire declaration of all the wads is delayed you know we'll be getting in more news break
06:49coming in with that just stay on with me so there is still a technical snack counting still on halfway
06:55mark yet to be reached it's a closed contest but all right you have the prime minister who is
06:59tweeting and rightly so because bjp is party number one across maharashtra viewers please keep that in
07:05mind that 29 municipalities have gone into vote uh yesterday and the results are out and it's a bjp
07:13sweep across maharashtra of course where mumbai is concerned right now things are not quite clear on
07:20that where bmc and prime minister correctly tweeting out saying congratulations uh maharashtra prime
07:26minister modi hails mahayuti sweep in maharashtra um it is a tectonic shift where politics in maharashtra
07:33is concerned viewers and you have uh um you know the you have the bjp coming in on top prime minister
07:41modi tweeting thank you maharashtra the enthusiastic people of the state have given their blessings to
07:47the nda's pro people and good governance agenda the results of the various municipal elections show
07:52that the nda's relationship with the people of maharashtra has become even stronger our track record
07:58of performance vision for development have resonated with the people i express my heartful gratitude to
08:05all the people of maharashtra this mandate will further accelerate progress and celebrate the
08:11glorious culture associated with the state many first viewers you know for one minute you know
08:16vidya just stay with me i'm going to come right back to you omkar is also joining me and our other
08:19reporters but for one minute reflect viewers away from what's happening in mumbai and what's
08:24happened in maharashtra 29 municipalities went to what it's a separate sweep across those municipalities
08:30bmc might have gone to the fire and even then the bjp and the eknat shinde sena are ahead is what we
08:38are being told but a tectonic shift not just in maharashtra politics in uh what mumbai perceived
08:45itself to be politically culturally this is truly a new mumbai when it comes down to families uh the
08:51power brand completely wiped out from the pimperi chinchwad pune area and uh big question on the
08:58irrelevance of the powers anymore and what does the power what does ajit power really bring to the
09:03alliance if it's he's been completely wiped out in his own stronghold and this time around
09:08the uncle and the nephew came together to fight this election against the bjp in their stronghold
09:15and yet the bjp has managed to trump them the takres is that brand over well in the morning it did
09:21seem so but a question mark on that we're going to hold our thoughts on the takres just for a while but
09:27you have to make that distinction with what we are seeing on ground the mns not doing well
09:31udhav sena still holding on to its core vote bank so was it not such a great decision to go with the
09:38mns to go with raj thakere udhav thakere's cousin it seemed like survival or a strategy of sorts but
09:45maybe what could have made better senses to go with the congress but the congress said no congress did not
09:50want to go with udhav thakere all right but the prime minister tweeting like i said rightly so history
09:55scripted in maharashtra possibly also scripted in mumbai vidya i want to bring you in but right
10:01before that rithvik balik are also joining us from the bjp office rithvik you had devendra
10:06fadnavis who's the man of the moment right now if there is somebody who takes credit of scripting
10:12the spectacular victory it is devendra fadnavis he came in addressed the crowds uh you know there
10:18were no for there were no central leadership this time campaigning everything laid on the shoulders
10:23of uh devendra fadnavis and he did spectacularly well having said that mumbai could be a sore point
10:32what are you picking up on mumbai right now where does the counting stand
10:35absolutely as per the trends bjp emerges as the biggest party in bmc uh securing somewhere around
10:50115 seats but uh what official bmc numbers are reflecting is a different story because uh still
10:59uh there are many seats uh which are uh being uh under under counting and uh more than half of the
11:06seats out of 27 uh have been declared officially by bmc and uh what we can pick up is that bjp has
11:14managed to acquire uh not more than 80 seats as of now but still standing as the biggest party in the
11:21bmc polls uh with ubt shiv sena uh following with 60 seats which is also a decent number because
11:2960 seats along with mns is something uh that can be uh a story telling that even ubt sena uh had a
11:40major role till now the maha yuti not close to the halfway mark is that's what we are picking up on
11:45ground exactly that's that's that's that's what the official numbers are reflecting because
11:54uh even after bjp and shinde sena uh having numbers which are uh more than the magical figure but uh
12:01there are many seats yet to be uh counted and okay many ones yet to be counted and the reason with
12:07what is what vidya gave us with will you stay with me i'm going to come right back to you the reason is
12:12there's a technical snag as well and 46 wads have been counted at a time 30 wads still left uh some
12:18dispute on certain words i want to bring in omkar wable for one minute let's uh zoom out of mumbai and
12:24go a little macro where maharashtra is concerned and omkar wable you know if you discount mumbai things
12:30are looking very very good for the bharatiyajanta party and not so good for the power clan
12:35well it's exactly cakewalk for bjp the rest of baharashtra especially when the 29 municipal
12:46corporations were being conducted together interestingly whether both power factions came
12:52together to to stop bjp in a pune and the western region but it it didn't happen because even now
12:59when the accounting is going inside i we can clearly see in a pune municipal corporation bjp
13:05is crossing hundreds seats in last election they were reached perhaps 93 to 95 but this time
13:12bjp has emerged as the largest party not only in pune but rest of maharashtra
13:17because there will be no elections in the next three years in maharashtra
13:21umkar it does look like you had yourself a bit of a celebration but i don't blame you viewers don't
13:25think that he's actually celebrating because he's covering he's at the bjp headquarters uh lots of
13:30celebration enthusiastic carder colored my colleague omkar as well umkar uh you know
13:35i'm going to come right back to you i'm also going to be joined by sahil joshi my colleague
13:39who has been very very busy through the course of the last couple of hours right from majthak to
13:44mumbai thak and we're going to be speaking with him as well but let's cut across uh for a brief
13:49moment back to vidya and uh ritwik and we'll get in sahil as well vidya once again the bjp's had a
13:56spectacular day at the office today practically scripted history but the sore point continues to
14:01be mumbai and like ritwik said right now way off the halfway mark in all possibility we will see
14:09bjp and the maha yuti touch the halfway mark maybe not as comfortable as they would have wanted to be
14:15well of course in the morning when i had spoken to some of these leaders uh from especially from
14:23the eknach in their faction and the bjp they said very clearly that they were quite buoyant and they
14:28said that about 150 is what they expect however the the figures right now are not that encouraging
14:35however when we're speaking to i'm right now outside balasai bhavan which is the headquarters
14:39of the eknach in their faction and they were the leaders here were quite happy you know you we saw
14:45them bursting crackers distributing sweets and of course uh you know they're refusing to accept the
14:50fact that uh remember when the before the party split they had the the bmc was actually had had seen
15:00the maximum of the shiv senix and out of those 70 odd out 60 had actually come to eknach in this
15:08party in spite of them having more than 60 elected corporate uh corporation uh members uh before
15:152017 since 2017 you actually still had only 30 plus candidates winning and that's something that
15:24the eknach in their faction is refusing to accept that you know it's it's a there are a lot of
15:30niggles there and i'll bring in sahil right you're right with there you know there are a you know
15:35lots of ifs and buts it's all not so clear right now because even if you look at the micro uh picture
15:41sahil you have uh where worldly is concerned the constituency of aditya thakre all wards are won by
15:47the shiv senix ubt while they've even won the ward in which is the residence in thane of eknach shinde
15:52so lots going on there how are you looking at mumbai right now sahil well uh you know you have to
15:59compare it with 2017 because that is the last election which happened and that was an undivided
16:03that was undivided shiv sena that undivided shiv sena and the shiv sena bjp fought against each other and
16:08they were the most dominant parties at that particular time 84 won by shiv sena shiv sena we can call it
16:15shiv sena ubt or i mean if you call it united yeah yeah 84 82 won by bjp now look at the results at this
16:24point of time the bjp is reaching almost a tally of 90 it may go up to 100 because the results are
16:30still out and bmc as always has created a mess of the whole situation why is that i mean i mean i
16:36really want to know what's going on i really don't understand i mean i i mean this is this is what is
16:40the situation i mean a simple election normally 288 uh assembly constituencies two and half lakh
16:46electorates but despite that we get results in three hours this is 227 watts 50 000 voters but
16:53despite that we are not able to get the proper what is the reason because they suddenly decided
16:57that they will first count 46 watts at awards at one stretch announce the results and then they
17:03will take up the 46 next watts rather than going with all the 227 watts at giving trends at the same
17:09time anyway that is up to the bmc it's it's it's exactly uh the same decision of the election
17:16commission why they use the marker pen and uh at the same time they also declared that they will be
17:21having double voters list separately announced so it is the same kind of a decision i have no idea
17:26why they have taken this in this is taking a lot of delay because of that anyway right now what we
17:31can see that a bjp has reached up to 90 and there is a possibility that bjp might reach up to 100 as
17:36well if the if the uh the numbers go in there bjp alone or with bjp alone bjp alone it stuck somewhere
17:42at 2025 uh so this can clearly be seen that uddav thakere has managed to retain its position i mean
17:50not entirely but somewhere he has managed to retain the seats in the marathi dominated areas
17:57where he has lost is basically the additional votes which he used to get from the bjp when they
18:02used to fight in alliance uh that is where he's missing out and mns hasn't added anything mns hasn't
18:08added mns mns hasn't added anything but mns has managed to consolidate ubt's position in the
18:13marathi dominated areas and further split into the marathi vote so if you add congress into the mix
18:18exactly now here the point comes uh 2024 loksaba elections the mabu combination because there are
18:25almost 20 25 percent muslim population in mumbai uh which has their choices of votes and they had
18:32never voted for shifts in a ubt before loksaba elections now the congress suddenly decided that okay we
18:37want to uh again go back to our core vote bank because that vote bank is now right uh voting for
18:44shifts in a ubt so better we fight election on our own on our own now what we are seeing is that
18:49mim is doing well in the muslim areas way better than ncp way better than mns way better than samajwadi
18:58party and and and those areas where where the muslims are not in a deciding position there the muslim
19:04vote is definitely going with the ubt and that's why they could retain their position at this point
19:08of time so i'll tell us one thing very quickly before we also introduce our guests will the
19:12mahayuti which is ekna chinde plus bjp reach the halfway mark because right now it's still shy of
19:17the halfway mark it will reach halfway mark that's very that you're clear about yeah it it clearly looks
19:21like but because bjp has managed to retain its position despite uh anything they have managed to
19:27retain it so you think it's going to be comfortable halfway mark it will look it looks like that they will
19:31definitely cross uh the halfway mark they will be winning this election uh clearly and they have
19:36got the support of the required number of voters at this point of time uh they win the fudnavish's
19:41image as a urban leader a leader who is looking for uh looking for the future of mumbai
19:46has clearly worked in favor of bjp that is also can clearly be all right let's quickly bring in all
19:51our guests inside you know feel free to come in amitabh tiwari political strategist commentator
19:55founder vote vibe is with us dhawal s kulkarni senior associate editor india today magazine
19:59jant minkar political analyst and senior journalist rajdeep sardisai is still somewhere outside he's
20:05going to be coming in in just about a minute but uh amitabh tiwari let's begin with you
20:09this time again at least where bmc was concerned amitabh tiwari the pollsters got it wrong yet
20:16again let the final results be out and then you can say amitabh tiwari is giving a classic uh
20:26pollster uh answer to that because he's done his own survey it's a very hyper local election and we
20:32at vote vibe were then did the right was right but by not coming out of the election was right
20:38by not coming out of the election most pollsters have been now totally off the mark
20:43at least when bnc elections are concerned this afternoon we thought we got it bang on by the
20:47time evening came we were all like he toh pher kar diya in honi so correct so why it is like
20:52last time or rather yesterday we were discussing as to what is the risk the risk is turn out
20:58by the time you have come out with the results the turnout numbers were not yet out in 2017 the
21:08turnout of female voters was higher by two and a half percentage this election we came to know at
21:14perhaps in the morning today that the turnout is lower by two and a half percent and the male and
21:21the female turnout is same correct so when you are coming out with the projections at 6 or 6 30
21:31definitely most of the people have done an extension of the pre-poll and some samples from yesterday's
21:39voting in 53 seats where the margin was less than thousand votes in 2017 so it's a very very tricky
21:48election and i think we at vote wipe were correct by not coming out with an exit poll if at all it
21:54would have come out the next day but there is no chance for a next day here because by the time
21:59you come to the exit poll the results are out correct i'm sorry but you know at least i know you're
22:04laughing so somewhere down the line there's a bit of self-deprecation as well and which is always
22:07welcome but uh uh you know not not a very good day for most people uh uh pollsters in the office
22:13sahil but uh you know you bring in uh let's bring in our other guest sahil let's uh let's get in dhaval
22:17kulkarni in the morning dhaval you said it doesn't look so easy but it isn't that easy you were right
22:23dhaval you know as as the evening unfolds the euphoria of bmc sweep it's going to be a comfortable
22:29win but definitely not the sweep that possibly the bjp had envisioned and wanted
22:34priti i shall i shall uh tell you something nothing beats good old reporting nothing beats
22:41getting your feet on the ground in actually wearing the leather alternative so whenever i moved around
22:46in mumbai uh covering this campaign covering this election i could make out that the feedback from
22:51the two senas was intense the only question was could they bring in the extra i would say auxiliary
22:57sort of constituency auxiliary vote to make up for the shortfall in or the gap created by
23:04you know ekna chinde uh sort of splitting the shoes so one thing is very obvious that they the
23:12hakare cousins have sort of led a super fight back i mean i mean this election actually in a sense is
23:17going down to the wire though the mahayuti has a has an edge so but no problem is because the problem
23:24for them let's do this sahil says it's going to be a comfortable win double do you also think
23:30comfortable with no no no my no no my point my point is when i say it is going down to the wire
23:37what i mean to say is that they have led a wonderful fight back now the problem again
23:41is that the bmc or the state election commission again they have not covered themselves in glory
23:46considering the gap in the results you know even the total voting percentage was announced today morning
23:5152.90 percent so it's 15 hours after the voting was complete so for some inexplicable reason i mean
23:57the results are delayed so my point is there was a wonderful fight back but yes
24:02it looks sure that the mahayuti is coming to power with what margin we don't know
24:07but the color of mumbai has changed from the shi usena the undivided shi usena
24:11saffron to the bjp saffron and there's one you know that's a different view of saffron that's a
24:18that's a different different different you of saffron and i like possibly you know mumbai
24:23a tectonic shift not politics culture everything on and you know mr main card to bring you in
24:28credit where you when sahil has been pretty pretty let me pretty let me interrupt you for the past
24:33several decades you know as sahil will uh testify to this the moment you said so whose voice
24:39rings loudest the reply would be shi usen answer that was the shi usen so that has changed the
24:45cloud that the undivided shi usen and the thakare family enjoyed over mumbai that has been shaken
24:49that is that is you know everything has changed and it could be just the bmc election that is augured
24:55yeah that is augured and that's you know and that is uh the beauty of time and elections and politics
24:59it's politics has changed the culture there's a tectonic shift in what is the perceived culture
25:04of mumbai on who is perceived to be a mumbai and a lot of that mr mehankar uh is going to be
25:11scripted by the man of the moment the vindra fadnavis because here is a man 55 year old who a brahmin a
25:18maratha who calls himself the ceo of maharashtra pitches in as a person who is pro-development of
25:25vikas purush where maharashtra is concerned yet carries the hindutva card you know very carefully
25:31and pushes that forth uh a lot of credit due there of course and uh pretty there was a time when in
25:40nearly 12 years before nikin gadkari's was uh nikin gadkari was uh competing with narendra moody as a
25:48future prime minister but it seems that nikin gadkari has completely taken backseat and with this fourth
25:53consecutive victory i mean three in three in the row for state in in the state are you hinting
26:00devendra fadnavis in 2029 could be that young face on a possible contender for the prime minister's post
26:06it is quite quite possible it is quite possible that in 2029 with mr modi reaching 80
26:14bjp may find their future leader that's a big one let's explore that sahil you have a devendra fadnavis
26:2150 and he's right three consecutive wins there's a yogi adityanath who has uh scripted two consecutive
26:27wins there's also going to be a himanta bishwa sarma possibly not so much but the second generation
26:31of bjp leaders in yogi adityanath in devendra fadnavis devendra fadnavis more acceptable you
26:37would think no so listen i mean this is this is purely an inference and uh it's not even a prediction i
26:42mean we are just analyzing whether it is going to be a possibility or not but uh especially in bjp at
26:48this point of time what we can clearly see is that whoever throws uh his hat uh in the race is
26:53the first one to be out so devendra knowing devendra fadnavis he will never throw his hat uh in in such
26:58kind of a race but yes he you know he there is a list of what kind of leader is needed at this point
27:05of time in the bjp and he takes all the boxes he takes all the boxes i mean he's he's urban he's english
27:09speaking he understands the development he understand the policies but at the same time
27:14he doesn't shy away from projecting his hindutwa image even today when he made a speech he did not
27:20forget to mention the hindutwa as well because he started with saying that uh nothing else works
27:25but the development plan and that's what we used and that is how we have won these elections but at
27:30the same time he did not forget to mention that we are hardcore hindutwavadis and that's why also
27:35uh you know our uh electoral machinery has worked well with the people so you know he fits the bill he's
27:41close to rss he knows rss uh uh hierarchy very well and uh he's been close to them so he takes all the
27:48boxes but what he has achieved from this election is that uh he has managed to rebuild his image as
27:55a leader in maharajstra which had taken a big hit uh in 2019 with that early morning uh swearing in with
28:03ajit pawar and later the things which followed in 2022 and ikna chinde becoming chief minister and all
28:09that will he be now accepted as a true blue marathi maras well he has projected himself as deva bhao he
28:15has dropped fadnavis from all his campaigns and there is a sudden campaign of deva bhao people have
28:19started calling him deva bhao the brother deva brother so you know that is that is something which
28:24which which is something new what what i can see uh here and that is what uh he's trying to do but but
28:30yes this election is going to give a boost i i'm just trying to throw one more thing uh in this
28:35discussion uh it's a it's a it's a it's a it's a big victory for the bjp bjp even in 2017 had not
28:43managed to win so many uh local elections uh at that particular time this time the bjp with 137 seats
28:51bjp with their chief minister in place bjp getting almost 100 seats in bmc at the same time it's a it's
28:58definitely a point of worry for the opposition parties but also the alliance partners bjp has become
29:04stronger than what bjp was of course you know you know and it's in one thing one must draw and we
29:11tried doing it this morning uh when rajdeep and i were anchoring and amitabh tiwari if you were there
29:15that whole journey and sahil who better you know than to you also to come in and you know give
29:19us your point of view from 2017 eight years ago when this election was held the political map of
29:24maharashtra looked spectacularly different than what it is today so many alliances have come together so
29:29many alliances have faltered fallen by the wayside but what has preserved and endured
29:34is the brand and the politics and the bharatia jantha party that has worked through 2017 all the way
29:42uh you know if you look at it right now 10 years and to come out as strong as it has you know it
29:49could be a cautionary trail sahil for regional parties who have aligned with the bjp if you look
29:54at you know what's happened to uddar thakere ekna chinde who till yesterday wanted to be the chief
29:58minister today won't be able to install his mayor uh you know because it will be the bjp who'd want to
30:02do so ajit pavar in all possibilities would not be needed anymore absolutely 2017 the bjp was number
30:08one party there was no doubt about it bjp was stronger than the other uh fellow political
30:13parties in maharashtra beat congress ncp ships in or any other party uh but today the whole political
30:19system of uh uh the other political parties has been completely destroyed nobody is at the original
30:26place where exactly the person and the bjp is only gotten stronger the bjp is the only party which is
30:30getting stronger ashok chawan uh the leader at that time of congress is in the bjp radha krishta vikhi
30:36party who was leader of opposition of the congress party at that time is now with the bjp nara and rane
30:41who was with the congress at that time is with the bjp the shiv sinna which was actually acting like
30:46a challenger despite being part of the alliance uh is now split into two uh right is with uh the bjp
30:53whereas and uddav thakar is struggling to survive uh uh election after the election trying to retain
30:59its core vote the ncp which was playing its game very uh cleverly uh sometimes uh cozying up with
31:06the bjp sometimes going with the congress is now split into two ajit pavar has been completely decimated
31:12in his own strong area like pune and there's a huge question mark on brand power in itself right
31:18every brand which was a political brand specifically the maharashtra was known for
31:23has been either decimated destroyed or has been tamed down at this point of time and the bjp is the
31:28only one which has come out as a and it speaks a lot of you know of foresight it speaks a lot of how
31:36you're trying to build a party instead of individuals because i'll give you an example sahil we had
31:40mr atavli today and uh we said you didn't get a seat you didn't get a party
31:45up case party and he said hum ko minister bana dia so this is what your vision is because you've been
31:52given a minister you've become a minister your party is now is a classic example of that the congress
31:58party when they wanted to ally with the ramdas atavli fraction of the republican party for the same bmc
32:04elections in 1992 when the congress came to power in bmc only time the first time during shiv sena's time
32:11that time they had to promise ramdas atavli that we will make rpi's mayor in mumbai imagine imagine
32:17and from there to not even get to call not even getting to contest one seat and he just coming
32:22there and praising and saying hum ko minister bana this is how myopic it is because you ruined your
32:27party at the cost of your own cabinet birth but amitabh tiwari i want to hark back because you know it's
32:33always interesting and fun to do it do so at this point of time and credit be due for a moment amitabh
32:38ravi reflect on deviendra fadnavis as a possible contender for 2029 prime minister's post
32:46essentially clearly he is he is one of the strong contenders i mean if you see
32:52you have yogi adityanath amit shah shivaraj singh chauhan nitin kadkari deviendra fadnavis these five
32:58six leaders are strong contenders uh deviendra fadnavis is the chief minister of one of the top gdp states of
33:08the country and the fact that he has single-handedly led the bjp to win a two or rather a three-fourths
33:15majority in the vidansaba and now almost leading in 23 plus out of 29 municipal corporation uh elections
33:23i think yes his his chances are strong but in bjp we we never know who gets uh which position at a later
33:31point in time i will give you a very interesting fact that you can go and ask chat gpt or a group
33:36as to who will be the next prime minister or the person who will succeed and you will get very
33:41interesting answers and if you put these five six names you will get very interesting sort analysis
33:46of all these leaders well that's very interesting but you know we're going to leave it at that but
33:50we're going to come right back uh you know to what's really going on on ground because we was what
33:55we've seen is a tectonic shift in maharashtra politics today and uh it's amazing how things have
34:01gone down for the bharatia janta party and hasn't come in one day it's something that has been laid
34:05brick by brick over the last 10 years and today is possible what we've seen is reach fruition but
34:11this is a new chapter it is a new chapter for deviendra fadnavis it is a new chapter for maharashtra
34:16truly and surely the big brother right now in maharashtra is only one party and that is the bharatia
34:21janta party till last year you had an ekhanaj shinde who wanted to claim the chief minister's
34:26chair while tomorrow in all probability 100 he wouldn't be able to even install his mayor
34:31in place there so see how things have actually panned out and how well the bjp has strategized
34:39and played its cards but what does it look right now sahil what we are witnessing is a close contest
34:46possibly not as good as what the bjp would have wanted in the bmc elections take a moment sahil
34:53and maybe and we'll bring in dhawal as well dhawal you know why don't you come in because you did in
34:57the morning uh you and mr menkar make two points about the thakere is coming in together while we've
35:03seen udhav thakere mostly keep his core work bank mns hasn't seemed to do that though sahil seems to
35:10suggest and you know he's he'd know better that it's helped udhav maintain and consolidate his core
35:17vote bank yeah sure i mean see the mns has ensured that there's no further split in the marathi
35:24votes and you must remember that today rash thakere is at zero and he has no corporators now in the
35:29outgoing house i mean this here seven corporators shift six went to udhav thakere and later to
35:34eknach in there and the bjp uh sorry all seven of them sorry all seven of them so he is essentially
35:39at zero so whatever he gets is on that addition for him so in that sense in this uh new alliance
35:46as they are calling it uh rash thakere is a map leader who was given the most so that is for sure
35:53but the problem is i think you know muslim boards they have uh i mean i think it's i i want to point out
35:59something very interesting because the results and their needs suggest that it is the mim which
36:05has walked away with a substantial chunk of muslim votes so that would essentially mean that the core
36:10votes which should have gone to the congress and also the auxiliary sort of vote which was being
36:14cultivated by the shivsa naubt has gone to the m m because the mim has uh managed to get eight
36:21corporators elected from the figures that i have so which means that we have a new force a new claimant
36:27for the muslim vote in maharashtra because remember 2017 the mim had only uh uh two corporators
36:33you know but it's a very interesting point that you make it is a very interesting point because
36:37we've seen that happen in bihar as well because a lot of the everyone thought that the muslims
36:42ultimately burned from the last time yeah yeah let me point out there are two things here this
36:48election saw intense polarization on caste ground sorry on religious grounds on linguistic grounds
36:53you had open dog whistling by uh leading politicians say we will not allow a khan to become the mayor of
36:59the city etc as we spoke in your show earlier so there this was intense i mean the polarization on
37:04the ground was intense that is number one number two you see a certain sense of if you see the minority vote
37:12it is you know more anti-bjp than pro congress or pro-ubt so now i think the muslim so i think the
37:20muslim voters should have gone in for a fresh face you know that is a mine uh because they feel
37:27slightly let down by the established muslim leadership which also includes the samaj on this
37:33okay but you know but but sahil it's a good point that dhabal is making but something is shifted
37:38because now the core muslim vote will go to somebody who they trust they don't want that
37:43even the congress to take their vote for granted this time around we saw it in bihar where many
37:48would have thought that the muslim vote would go en masse to the rjd and the congress because they
37:54have the best chance of defeating the bjp they didn't do that they said don't take us for granted
37:58you don't have our interests in heart we will go by the the mim because we trust them and similarly
38:03at a micro example that's what happened in mumbai well uh the muslim voters in mumbai had uh you
38:09know they have always been voting for the congress till 90s you know please understand i mean it has
38:14it has not happened that in mass they have always been voting for the congress but till 90s they used
38:18to vote for that after that things started changing i mean there there were areas where muslim league
38:23used to get elected uh could get elected their uh their corporators as well as uh the emilies in
38:28mumbai because it was a predominantly muslim dominated area so they had their separate identity
38:33intact has always been there samajwadi party after uh mumbai riots had suddenly emerged as a challenger
38:39to congress and wiped out this time samajwadi wiped out wiped out this time because of the leadership
38:43issues abu asim azmi is not no more acceptable the old abu asim azmi is no more acceptable but that time
38:49uh it it emerged as a challenger 127 seats with the muslim support i mean that was the highest mark
38:55they had always uh uh achieved after that they moved towards congress and this time it looks like
39:01the mim but also one can clearly see that if the uddaf thakere and mns manage to keep this tally intact
39:0877 80 that that will that that means that even the muslims have voted for shivsana ubt in certain
39:15pockets where they are not in the large numbers so so they are looking at different areas and uh it's not
39:21not a monolith anymore it's not a monolith anymore they're deciding as per the candidate and that's
39:26not a good that's you know even congress is winning 13 seats it doesn't all go well for mamita banerji
39:32in west bengal but this is just a small example but it's not a monolithic bank anymore that you think
39:36that they will go one way they decide where they want to go and that's how it pans out mr main car
39:41quick uh you know closing comments uh uh your biggest takeaway from what we've witnessed today which is
39:47clearly a saffron sweep in maharashtra so politically uddaf thakere and congress both have miserably
39:55failed in understanding uh the bmc uh what is happening because particularly while while uddaf had
40:02the option he could have gone he could have convinced uh uh congress also to have his own brother or he
40:09could have given up uh his brother and could have gone with congress because that would have as i as a
40:14there is a discussion going on that muslim votes have got split in sena and even congress and mm this
40:21this dimension could have been in two ways and that might have helped and the the the mahagadi might
40:29have reached 100 also which right now is gasping at 90 only and that might have been the main major
40:36change so i feel both uddaf thakere and congress leadership which is completely non-existent in
40:42maharashtra have miserably failed in taking on bjp shinde sena's combined challenge to control their
40:51authority on the richest body of india good point sir good point sahil i want to bring you when
40:57what would be uddaf thakere thinking this evening well uh he'd be happy in a way but you're not happy
41:03because you've fallen short i don't think he will be happy because they were actually hoping that somehow
41:08congress will reach up to 2030 and they were hoping for congress they're hoping for congress to reach
41:13out to certain level and they were hoping also that they would do better because the marathi
41:17consolidation happened but not the way it used to happen in uh before because shiv sena used to get
41:22almost 60 to 70 percent vote from the marathi dominated areas this time it has got a little bit
41:29reduced as well so but it mirrors the vidhan sabha election that that that is correct but you know
41:34then he must be thinking that how to reinvent his party right now true because you know there has
41:39to be moving forward from this because this is the last leg when he can use this marathi plank
41:43save mumbai from here he has to move forward from here he has to move forward so i'm sure that he
41:48must be reinvent is what reinvention is what uh uddaf thakere needs to do and reinvention desperately is
41:55what the powers will need to do as well both brands are on the decline yes quickly
42:01i think you know probably the shiv sena and mns will go in for what is being described as the
42:08politics of the periphery some sort of marathi plus kind of politics wherein they retain the core
42:13marathi vote base and also develop a constituency around it so i think they may go for that kind of
42:19politics in the future okay so you are saying they may go for okay okay all right we we have rajdeep
42:27sardisai who's walked into the last five minutes of this conversation okay we have rajdeep sardisai
42:32who's walked in the last five minutes of the conversation he had promised that he's going
42:35to be here at seven uh in the morning but it's 7 pm but he's not so rajdeep we have five minutes quickly
42:42sir come behaving a bit like devendra fadnavesh this evening very busy he's been busy he's been busy
42:51moving from one studio to the other one studio to the other yes yes sorry sir we have only four
43:00minutes biggest takeaway my biggest takeaway is clearly that uh maharashtra has to a large extent
43:08become saffronized to the extent that i did not imagine as someone who tracked the politics of the
43:14state in the 80s and 90s when maharashtra's politics was dominated by the congress and where
43:22the saffron alliance was led by barasai thakre i did not think a day would come so soon where the bjp
43:28would be so dominant and look at the way the bjp has strategized they have broken the shiv sena they
43:33have broken the ncp they have strengthened themselves they have almost decided it's almost as if they not
43:39only win the election they decide who the opposition is they are able to control the entire
43:44political environment to the extent that they are maharashtra's party number one and devendra
43:49fatnam is a brahmin again surprise a brahmin in maratha dominated politics become neta number one
43:57i remember when he became chief minister most people thought how will he handle uh you know
44:01maratha domination politics that's also changed but didn't maharashtra became saffron in 2014 only when bjp
44:07won 127 seats shiv sena winning 63 seats and congress and ncp 42 41 even then it was saffronized
44:15you're you're right majority in 2017 look at the local body elections the congress and ncp could not
44:21retain their uh uh their holds but but sahil look at the numbers across the state the bjp by and large
44:29is emerging as party number one and the shiv sena is a junior partner even in mumbai so i mean i think
44:36what is when i say saffronized you're right it's it's been happening over a period of time this is
44:41the culmination i'm saying now you actually can the bjp can say because what was the charge initially in
44:47in the 90s bjp share ki party yeah you know bjp is only there in a few pockets of maharashtra today if
44:55you look across the the map of maharashtra if i can win 23 out of 29 municipal corporations that means i
45:02am now the dominant party of the state uh i don't think it's quite like gujarat yet i think there are
45:08still pressures and counter pressures in maharashtra there's a large dalit population there are the
45:13muslims have got fragmented look at aimim's performance it's pretty impressive so there's
45:18all of that happening but i think the interesting part is as the bjp strengthens and the opposition
45:24fragments maharashtra is slowly moving into a space where the bjp will be confident in the future
45:31maybe in 2029 of fighting an election on its own and getting a majority on its own i just want to add
45:37one point actually i want to ask about this i mean the political situations are completely different
45:42in these two states but i i'm compelled to compare the states because the identity politics the way it
45:48happens in maharashtra similarly the same identity politics happens in bengal they love their culture
45:53they love their language uh they have their own heroes and they uh literally pray them no there's
45:58a difference i'll tell you what the difference i understand i'm just saying i'm just saying that
46:02i understand the completely different the marathi hindutwan nationalist yeah is missing in a beng it's
46:08rare to find a bengal i totally understand what i'm trying to say is that the what stopped bjp from
46:14making a complete becoming a complete dominant force in maharashtra despite they are winning more than
46:20hundred seats in three consecutive elections despite everything because there were regional forces
46:26who stopped them from becoming the totally dominant okay will this happen in bengal if the bjp finds a
46:34proper leader who can speak in bengali who can put forward the bengali plank in in in bengal and they
46:41can do what they need to find a face it certainly can happen look at the rise of the bjp in bengal i
46:46have no doubt about it look at the way the bjp has risen what were they three seats in uh 2017 or
46:522016 went up to 70 odd seats in 2021 they are a party which is expanding constantly and silas right as long
47:00as the regional parties remain strong and united the bjp will have a fight on their hands the moment
47:06those parties weaken the bjp steps because look at what's happened in bengal uh you know sahil the rise
47:12of the bjp hasn't come at the cost of tmc's tmc's vote share has only risen to 48 percent from a 38
47:17percent but even the left's vote who weakened were taken up by the bjp majority of the left vote but even
47:27the left was acting like a regional party in bengal okay i want to ask you one question
47:31rajji because i have to go into a break because and the question is which i asked sahil what is
47:35udhav thakere thinking this evening udhav thakere is thinking actually interestingly he hasn't done too
47:41badly so you know the the parties like udhav thakere will actually take some they will clutch at straws
47:47there's an interesting you know suppose all the senas were together including shinde sena
47:53they would be 100 plus right that's the shiv sena the marathi manu still identifies himself with the
47:59regional party it's just that that regional party has got fragmented in mumbai and the shiv sena and
48:04the bjp realized this that's why i said bjp not only decides how it is going to fight the election
48:10they almost decide how the opposition will fight i sometimes wonder whether raj thakere was planted
48:16on to udhav thakere to keep congress out that's a conspiracy theory no no no only to the extent
48:23that i think somewhere having raj thakere you see raj thakere and udhav thakere have come together at a
48:30time without actually a complete meeting of minds on the ground well you see it's not so easy overnight
48:36so you're saying it's he's a plant no i'm not saying i'm saying i don't know all i'm saying all i'm saying
48:41is that if you have to fight the bjp today you have to be fully united index of opposition unity and
48:47your regional party has to be able to espouse regional aspirations more effectively over time
48:54i think shiv sena somewhere down the line has has been confused you go with the congress what happens
49:00to your hindutwavadi alliance right all all his life was taking on the congress now you go and align with
49:07them as a result some voters drift and become political hindu so what would he be saying that
49:11they need to learn from the bjp bjp can have an alliance with ritesh kumar and still survive
49:15they can have an alliance with uh so what okay coming back to to again let me add another part
49:21to it so what is udhav thakere thinking tonight and what is sharat power thinking tonight
49:25sharat power is 85 okay what is ajid power thinking i won't be surprised if ajid power and
49:30sharat power come together that's in the near future and whether whether they could be who
49:36knows i don't know supriya sule may not want to be part of the nda but who knows what happens one
49:40year from now we don't know because the opposition is shrinking so fast so you're saying you're saying
49:46the powers could come together that is what ajid power would seriously mull this evening no i think
49:50at some stage in the next six months 12 months they could certainly because there is no real
49:54differences they will be forced to come together with the situation the way the thakre i don't
49:58know whether the thakres will remain forever together what is he thinking tonight i think
50:03udhav thakre is wondering how do i now reinvent yeah you've got to reinvent you've got to rise
50:10from where you are look i think aditya thakre has shown some signs you know he he's very easily
50:15criticized but when i speak to him he at least raises valid issues that actually no he's made sure he's
50:20made sure that all his wards in dadar his own constituency are one he's made sure of that
50:25you see preethi in politics it's a marathon bada sahib thakre lost so many elections but
50:30kade raina do the thakres have the stamina you see if they have the stamina i still believe i still
50:38believe two years ago 31 seats won by maha vikas agadi 17 by bjp now you're writing them off just less
50:46than two years later nobody's writing them off rajdeep i think we all know that nobody writes
50:50political obituaries you'll be foolhardy to do so one quick question again which we were debating
50:54earlier devendra fadnavis as a possible pm candidate 2029 i will take if that happens i will play that
51:01video that i put on netha nagee picks the credit for everything no no no no no no no no no no i'll tell
51:08you why we are kite flying right now you're taking credit for the kite flight i see so many similarities
51:13with the way devendra fadnavis is rising in maharashtra with what i saw with modiji in gujarat
51:18i'm seeing similarities i'm not saying it mean that you will they go koon banega prime minister as
51:23power once told us the day devagauda became prime minister koon kap banega koon jane but i do think
51:29that devendra fadnavis is slowly but surely coming to the front ranking leaders among the gen next of
51:34the bjp it's a huge achievement who have done what he has done in maharashtra let us know and he offers a
51:41certain urban dream yes and as india gets more as india gets more and more urbanized they will
51:46look at i think it's quite impressive that his wife amrita fadnavis comes on programs in the way
51:51she does you know all of this appeals to a younger generation no i think it's very cool i i think it's
51:56superbly cool so i you know i i just i i i would say devendra fadnavis knows how to use social media
52:02he knows how to use media possible pm contender 2029 uh absolute not 2020 while modi is there there are
52:09no pm contenders there's no contender there's no contender there's only modi nobody will even
52:13dare to you know their hat in that mr modi let's be fair to him while he's around including possibly
52:192029 he's nita number one but we have to get into a break at some stage when you look at the next
52:24generation devendra fadnavis is now on test you see now all the municipal corporation you can't say
52:31now everything will come on now it's truly a triple engine now it's truly a triple engine
52:38just one quick question and one online answers of what you knew of mumbai the soul of mumbai the
52:45perception of mumbai the politics of mumbai the culture of mumbai now can we say there's been a
52:51tectonic shift well definitely yes i mean not today just by the virtue of what we're seeing right
52:56definitely yes i mean the mumbai what i have seen i have grew grew up in was a completely different
53:01mumbai it was a middle class mumbai rajdeep's mumbai was completely different that is the beauty
53:06of mumbai you know everybody lives a different life south bombay mumbai it is a complete different
53:10mumbai i have lived in a middle class dominated areas where we have seen people coming on streets on
53:15on social issues on on civil joshis father by the way was an excellent coordinator who actually
53:21did more for municipal schools than many people did those were the old style politicians the old
53:26style politicians of mumbai worked on the grassroots even they were not rent-seeking politicians even the
53:31bjp bjp leaders at that time with the middle class leaders they were working and at the same time they
53:36were doing politics so so the bumbay has definitely changed it's a new era it happens with the time yeah it's
53:41definitely it happens with the time it happens with the time you have 10 seconds no look i you know i i
53:45am nostalgic about uh middle class mumbai i like to you know i like when i go to mumbai and i see
53:51people romanticize a life they've never lived it's a very it's a very common thing people romanticize
53:57a life that they have never no there is a mumbai which i still you know i still hanker for it was it
54:02was middle class cricket was played on the maidan now the maidans are taken over by marriage halls
54:07now redevelopers and contractors are the ones who run mumbai that's the tragedy i think of mumbai and i
54:13hope that the corporators realize that that they have been put there okay i need to go to a break
54:17not to improve not their bank balance but improve the quality of life okay now i have to end all
54:24right thank you both of you uh gents for joining me with that but if there is one person who owns the
54:29day today it is devendra fad nervous whether or not he's going to be uh you know a possible future
54:35contender for pm we don't know but today the chief minister has had a fabulous day in the office thank you
54:41for joining gas up
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