00:00Well, the forecast feed is going to focus on the southeast and potentially a little bit of the northeast for snow potential this weekend, the end of the weekend, Sunday into Monday.
00:15This is a tricky forecast, and it's going to be an interesting one here regarding the potential for accumulating snow in areas that don't see much of it in a typical year.
00:24Let's take a look at what's going on right now with the southeast.
00:27And overall, the southeast, we have a forecast that's going to involve some snow and a rain-snow mix in parts of far north Florida, but southeast Georgia.
00:38And we're going to actually see accumulating snow in some areas north of I-10.
00:41We're not anticipating many accumulations as far south as I-10.
00:45I know there have been models floating around, a lot of buzz on social media about Florida snow.
00:50There will probably be some fleeting snowflakes north of Panama City, Tallahassee, but I don't expect much.
00:55We're not going to see a repeat of that major winter storm that shattered Florida's statewide snow record about 12 months ago.
01:02When they had nine inches, the previous statewide snow record was four.
01:05That was incredible.
01:06This will not be a repeat of that, but it will be disruptive in other parts of the southeast.
01:10Let's get into the models before we get into the specifics here.
01:13So here we have a big trough that has returned to the east.
01:17A big dip in the jet stream.
01:18Cold air has rolled in.
01:19And so we talk about sometimes short waves and long waves.
01:24The long wave pattern, almost like if you take off your glasses and blur your eyes, big trough in the east, big ridge in the west.
01:31That's the long wave pattern.
01:33Within the overall pattern, though, there are also short waves.
01:38And these are the more specific little kinks and dips in the jet stream, even a little one up here.
01:45So this is the general broad pattern.
01:49The long wave pattern often dictates the overall temperature regime, colder or milder than average.
01:56But the short waves dictate where the storms actually track and how they behave.
02:00So you'll notice Saturday night to Sunday, we have a short wave that comes in.
02:03By the way, it's currently way up just near and east of Alaska.
02:06That is what fires into the west side of the long wave pattern.
02:12And this is it here.
02:14It's this little thing moving through southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, around the Raton Mesa in New Mexico come Saturday afternoon.
02:21And it rounds the base of the trough.
02:23And it goes from a position of being positively tilted southwest to northeast to negatively tilted.
02:30The way it kinks around and kind of has this inflection point around the south side of the long wave trough.
02:35You can see we go from a positive tilt to a slightly mildly negative tilt, where it's almost beginning to go northwest to southeast.
02:44Keep in mind, the map projection is a little curved.
02:48So, again, that may play with your tinker with your eyes a little bit here.
02:51A true north-south line may look curved here from this map projection.
02:55But overall, the message here is that this short wave rounds the base of the deep long wave trough through Georgia on Sunday, right around midday Sunday.
03:05And if you have these bright colors to your west and the bright colors are heading your way, then you're going to be dealing with a rising motion type setup.
03:14That means you have vorticity and positive vorticity.
03:18Spin in the atmosphere is going to be moving in your direction.
03:21And that's going to produce more lift and more rain and snow and cloud production and so forth if you're east of those bright lines, bright colors.
03:28And you can see this pretty swiftly moves offshore.
03:31And, in fact, it probably is moving too swiftly offshore for much of a big storm in the northeast.
03:37The business side of this trough is going to be offshore.
03:39But it will be producing a little bit of snow in some parts of the southeast where we don't see too much of it.
03:44Now, the GFS model, if we look at Sunday, it has a little bit more of a neutral, trending, slightly negative tilt there for part of this storm track on Sunday.
03:59The European is a little bit more positively tilted, which is a little bit more of a weaker type of storm system.
04:05But as we watch this play out here, we're going to be watching for some precipitation production on Sunday.
04:11So here's the GFS.
04:13And you can see it's cranking out some snow, south Georgia into the Carolinas.
04:17And then it goes out to sea, largely missing areas like New York City, maybe a flurry or two in Philly, and maybe a light accumulation of snow in Delaware and eastern Maryland, but probably not even much into Cape Cod.
04:30That's one model projection.
04:32Here's the NAM.
04:33This is a short-term model that specializes in about three and a half days.
04:36It only goes out 84 hours.
04:38We're getting close enough to the event, though, where we're beginning to get a handle on things.
04:42There's a predecessor, like a weak disturbance, that brings a little bit of snow to eastern Tennessee, to West Virginia on Saturday morning or Friday night.
04:49But the concern is this system here.
04:52I think this is probably a little overdone in Mobile.
04:55Maybe there will be some wet snowflakes there.
04:56We're not expecting a repeat of last January.
04:58But we are expecting this to produce some accumulating snow in areas like south-central Georgia, maybe Columbus and Albany and Macon and Warner Robins.
05:07That's an area we've got to keep an eye on things.
05:09And also some snow maybe up into Richmond, Virginia.
05:12And that's all the length of the NAM model.
05:15It goes out to 84 hours, and that's where it stops.
05:17But it does give us a pretty good indication that maybe it's a hint farther west than the GFS.
05:23Not by much, but a little bit.
05:25Not a game-changer for D.C., but maybe a little more snow into Salisbury, Maryland.
05:30Here's the European.
05:32And that earlier disturbance brings a little bit of light snow coating to an inch to Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston on Saturday.
05:39And then here's the more relevant storm system.
05:41And remember, the European model wasn't quite as tilted negative as much as the GFS, so it's a weaker storm.
05:49And the reflection of that at the ground is this.
05:52We see a little hint, just a taste of snow in south Georgia.
05:56Maybe some wet snowflakes in the Florida panhandle.
05:59And then it's out to sea, and that's it.
06:00That's it.
06:01The Canadian, by the way, another opinion.
06:04Here we have the Sunday storm.
06:06It's faster, and it just plays differently, and it doesn't really handle that same wave the same.
06:11But there would be a mix and a little bit of snow in southeast New England early Sunday.
06:15Tining is very different in the Canadian.
06:18And the UK Met is more similar to the other models.
06:21Primarily rain with just a taste of snow.
06:24The model coloring doesn't show precip types there.
06:27But that's mainly a rain event there.
06:28It just doesn't have quite the same aggressive push with the cold.
06:32So as we wrap this up here, here's our forecast.
06:34We're looking at snow late Saturday night through Sunday.
06:37South Georgia, the Carolinas, wet flakes mix in Charleston, Savannah, Wilmington.
06:42That'll be kind of interesting.
06:43We actually have a snowfall forecast.
06:45Here it is.
06:45We're forecasting a coating to an inch, a coating to an inch in these light blue zones.
06:50And I'll end with a quick look at the brush of some snow.
06:54Thank you so much.
