00:00With that, Emmanuel Macron, let's bring in for the analysis James J. Townsend, Jr., senior advisor at the Atlantic Council.
00:05James, thank you so much for being with us here on France 24. We appreciate your time.
00:09Vladimir Zelensky hailing substantive declarations on security guarantees for Ukraine.
00:15Macron saying that this multinational force would be in place led by France, UK, Poland, Italy, Turkey.
00:20What is your reaction to what we've been hearing from this coalition of the willing meeting in Paris?
00:26Well, that's great news. It's a step forward, as they've been saying, that now we have statements of intent where nations are going to actually set to work to get the legalities done, the details done,
00:40all the things that really will support what is needed to be done for a secure guarantee that Zelensky can really depend on.
00:50So it's one more step. There is work ahead. But it's good news coming out of Paris today.
00:54It sounds like you're signing up to what Keir Starmer was saying about there are hard yards ahead.
01:00Lots of progress needs to be made in other areas.
01:04Well, that's exactly right. There's got to be hard decisions about so what will these troops actually do there?
01:10Are they going to fight the Russians? Are they going to be there just to monitor things?
01:15So there's a lot of detail like that that's important for Zelensky to hear.
01:18And for the United States, too, what's the U.S. role?
01:21Is it going to be just intelligence? Are we going to be monitoring and coordinating things in terms of what the Russians may or may not be doing?
01:30And then finally, of course, the big decision is going to be where are the Russians on this?
01:34They've said they don't want to have any NATO or NATO nation troops in Ukraine.
01:40So what will what will happen if the Russians say yet?
01:44That is the question, James, isn't it? That is really the question.
01:47I'm wondering what you make of the fact that Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner attended, first of all,
01:53but also decided to be there to take questions afterwards.
01:56What do you make of that?
01:57Well, I think that's very important, particularly after what's happened with Venezuela and and the concerns that a lot of allies have about the course of the United States.
02:09Are we going to be now doing nothing but Western Hemisphere work or are we still involved with Ukraine?
02:14And I think this was an important point that those two representatives of the president were there.
02:20They didn't provide a lot of information on what the U.S. role would be, but they highlighted the idea that there's going to be a prosperity aspect to this, too, for the Ukraine people in terms of jobs, rehabilitation, rebuilding.
02:34That's an important part of this whatever agreement comes our way.
02:39Indeed, I'm thinking back to the promise of homes for heroes at the end of World War Two in Britain, for instance, where I grew up, where I came, where I come from.
02:47And, of course, that didn't really materialize in anything that made people feel that they were well looked after for the sacrifices they made.
02:54Are you thinking that with Wyckoff and Kushner, with Trump's business acumen, I'll use that phrase, do you feel this could be something extremely positive for Ukrainian people?
03:06Well, I really do, actually.
03:08And I say that because I think the president sees that there's money in it to be made for the U.S.
03:14In other words, there's going to be U.S. companies involved.
03:17There's going to be U.S. financing involved.
03:20And, frankly, that's needed, too.
03:23You know, you don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth, as we say here in the U.S.
03:27So I think this has got a good potential to actually happen once peace is established, because I think the president sees there's something in it for the United States, too.
03:37And as you say, it depends what Vladimir Putin says, doesn't it?
03:41Do you think if Putin is negative on this one, it might at last turn Trump's kind of, I don't know, almost kind of enamored view that he has of Putin?
03:52Clearly, he respects Putin.
03:54He likes Putin.
03:55Some say he'd like to be like Putin in some way, shape or form.
03:58Perhaps that's a reach and too far.
04:00But, you know, do you think if this time Putin says, yet Trump will actually wake up and smell the coffee?
04:05I don't think so.
04:09I think normally you would certainly assume that that's what one would do, really put on the pressure.
04:15But that's not been the course that the president has taken.
04:20I think what will have to happen is he says, you know, Putin says, yet I'm not going to allow this to happen.
04:27And so it will be back to the drawing board on security guarantees that are something that Putin could live with.
04:33But we've got to get Putin to the table to begin with.
04:36There's a lot of second guessing.
04:38What would he want?
04:39What would he not want?
04:40What would be a good compromise with him?
04:42But we're not going to know until he actually feels it's in his favor to go ahead and talk about peace.
04:49Right now, he doesn't see that.
04:51He's all about the battlefield.
04:53So we've got to get him to the table.
04:55We've got to put these proposals in front of them.
04:58And where there are issues, we've got to work those issues to find something that everyone can live with.
05:03But it's getting him to the table that is really the biggest challenge ahead of us.
05:08Indeed.
05:08And as you're saying that, James, that phrase of Starmer's about the hard yards ahead really rings true.
05:15In terms of what happens for Ukraine now, we report all the time about Russian bombardment of their towns and cities, their infrastructure and people being killed.
05:25That's the reality of life that Ukrainians are facing day in, day out, night in, night out.
05:30That's what's happening.
05:32How do they get through?
05:33That is exactly right.
05:36That is the tragedy in all this is as we go back and forth with drafts and try to get Putin to the table, the Ukrainians are dying every night.
05:45And that's the pressure Putin is putting on Zelensky and the West, saying that, look, you all can talk as much as you want, but your people are dying every night.
05:58And unless I'm satisfied, this will continue.
06:00And it's horrible pressure on Zelensky.
06:03It's horrible pressure on all of those who are trying to find peace.
06:06And yet it continues every night.
06:09And we can only hope and pray that they have the resilience to withstand this until somehow we can get Putin to the table and then resolve this war.
06:18James J. Townsend, Jr., Senior Advisor at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.
06:22Thank you so much for joining us here in France 24.
06:24We always appreciate your time and your analysis.
06:26James, thank you for being with us.
06:28And just a little postscript to our discussion there, Russia losing something like 90,000 troops over the past three months, according to Ukrainian sources.
06:37It gives you a scale of the carnage that is going on as Donald Trump used that word via Steve Wyckoff to talk about his desire that the killing should stop in Ukraine.
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