00:00let's get to calci here they made news this week as well and you know everybody trying to make a
00:04buck and starting a business that could end up being a billion dollar business i certainly respect
00:09it but i definitely the question the intent of some of the folks that thought that this would
00:15be a good idea meaning the idea that we're going to discuss of actually having predictions on where
00:21kids end up transferring to through the transfer portal my gosh like i understand the outcomes of
00:27games and i understand trades but sam like this whole transfer portal stuff is new for all of us
00:33in this world and it involves kids sometimes that are very young as well and look i'm not big on
00:39thinking that so many different things can be manipulated in sports betting i know some are
00:43going to happen they're always going to be bad actors but man this just opens up the door for
00:48that why would they want to kick open that thing i i gotta wonder yeah this is what goes back to one
00:54of the core arguments as to why people want sports betting regulated by the states why they want
01:00state gambling laws to prevent things because historically sports books have not offered or
01:05even been able to offer markets like the ones kalshi's proposing where you can bet on not just if a
01:12college athlete is going to enter the transfer portal but where they'll end up going which kalshi has
01:18signaled with its contract saying that these markets would be resolved you know and things like social
01:23media posts or public reporting even if these athletes reverse course and decide not to go
01:29through with that or go to another school but um sports books aren't allowed to do this and because
01:34prediction markets really have no rules they need to follow right now nothing is stopping kalshi from
01:40self-certifying and listing these contracts with the cftc now as to why they might want to do it um
01:46there could be several reasons you know they want to the whole mission of prediction markets has been to
01:52you kind of gamify and financialize everything that happens in the world including decisions that
01:58sometimes can rely on insider trading as you alluded to craig it doesn't look like at least right now
02:03there would be any specific protocols to prevent a friend or family member of someone who or a college
02:10athlete who is thinking about transferring it doesn't look like there'd be any protocols to really
02:14prevent them from making a wager of benefiting on this and we really don't know how this would all be
02:19policed now i want to make sure i hit home the point that this has not happened already this is
02:24just kalshi's listing its intent to do this but it's certainly making headlines it's you know turning
02:30into a landscape where i'm on your show talking about it kalshi's getting more uh public attention
02:35about this you know whether it's criticism right or wrong you know all publicity is good publicity
02:40but meanwhile it kind of further differentiates them as prediction markets attempting to go much further and
02:46much farther than sports books ever have been able to the ncaa came out you know not so surprisingly
02:52and criticized this called kalshi an unregulated
02:57implement and said that this is kind of a terrible idea kalshi responded saying regulated by the cftc which
03:04obviously hasn't done much so we'll see if this even ends up getting you know becoming a thing by next
03:10year but um it certainly would attract a lot of people interested in betting on this kind of thing you
03:15know you had over i think over 2 000 uh d1 football players just last year enter the transfer portal
03:22so you know people love to bet on everything if you give them another way to do it i certainly don't
03:26think they'll scoff at that and meanwhile regulation and anyone who's trying to stop this it seems to be
03:31kind of waiting in the wings um sloshing through the courts
03:39you
03:40you
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