00:00You can see the rainfall associated with Umberto, a tropical storm, but also a tropical rainstorm that will likely become Imelda, still organizing and moving through parts of Hispaniola.
00:11So we need to keep an eye out for both of these features and both of these storm systems.
00:15Umberto is the established storm on the map, and frankly, between the two, the unnamed storm is more interesting.
00:21But again, Umberto we need to talk about because Umberto could influence the future path that what will become Imelda will take.
00:29So Umberto is likely to continue to move west-northwest.
00:33Once we get into, especially Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon, we'll likely see this kind of rapidly increase from tropical storm status to a hurricane, probably Category 2.
00:43And then Category 3 intensity is likely, so this could become a major hurricane.
00:47And the thing that's a little bit unusual with this year, one thing was that long, quiet spell from the end of August to mid-September.
00:54The other thing is that we've had two hurricanes so far, and both of them, Gabrielle and Aaron, became major hurricanes.
01:01So we're not seeing many storms reach their ceiling as Category 1 or 2.
01:04They either stop at a tropical storm or they reach Category 3, 4, or 5.
01:09So it'll be interesting to see what happens with Umberto.
01:11But we expect this to be guided by that western, more beefy Bermuda Azores High, in conjunction with that flow off the east coast, a trough there.
01:20So that's going to guide it west of Bermuda. There's Bermuda. And again, the larger footprint of this storm is going to be influential in dictating the steering flow.
01:30And there's probably a point out there somewhere north of the Bahamas where it's going to impart its own steering influence.
01:37And this next system, future Imelda, is going to reach this area with no big land masses, just the smaller Turks and Caicos of Bahamas, less wind shear out in this area.
01:47So after being held in check for recent days by strong wind shear and land masses, it likely will organize.
01:55It's going to bring some very heavy rain to some of these islands.
01:58And one scenario is Umberto actually draws it in to the circulation around Umberto.
02:03And that could become something that does what we call the Fujiwara effect, with two storms kind of rotating around one another.
02:08But the slightly more likely cases at Umberto's steering winds will not be large enough or influential enough to grab this one.
02:16And Imelda will probably come north and make landfall early next week in the Carolinas.
