00:00We're tracking a number of competing stories right now.
00:04We are going to take a brief step away from the Atlantic for this forecast feed
00:08because things are so quiet as we're getting into record territory
00:11without a named storm three Labor Days in a row.
00:15First time in the satellite era for that.
00:17Also, we're going to have no hurricanes through September 11th.
00:21And the first time that we have ever gone through September 11th
00:25from the beginning of the season through that time without a hurricane
00:28in the satellite era.
00:30Pretty wild.
00:31There were no known hurricanes in 1907 and 1914.
00:35But I want to get into the domestic forecast here.
00:38It's taking over land for the next five and a half, six, six and a half minutes or so
00:42because we've got some big storms.
00:45Maybe not a whole lot of true severe thunderstorms.
00:48It's not a severe weather outbreak.
00:50But what it is is a setup that's going to bring us some drenching rainfall.
00:54And the risk is there for some flash flooding.
00:56Last night we had some flash flooding in an area not far from Des Moines, Iowa.
01:00And, well, we're back into a slow-moving eastbound front
01:05that's going to produce some drenching thunderstorms for some.
01:09So there are two areas where we're going to highlight the risk for severe weather.
01:13And we're going to do a lot of back and forth between the models and back to the graphics.
01:17And one thing that I wanted to point out, this disturbance aloft, this guy, is lifting.
01:25So it's in a posture where it's going to be a little more removed from Lake Erie or northern parts
01:32of Indiana.
01:33As it pulls northeastward, it's going to be increasingly separated from the front.
01:38And that's going to allow this front to behave with a little bit less firepower.
01:42So the severe risk is limited, but it's not zero.
01:45The lakes are warm, and we may see some thunder and lightning out over Lake Erie late tonight.
01:51But there's this corridor here where there's a little dip in the jet stream accompanying our front
01:56that's going to be leading to extra lift in the atmosphere.
01:59Then there's another area as well where we have a little disturbance that's digging.
02:06And later tonight, that becomes a slightly sharper trough.
02:08In fact, if I take it all the way out to tomorrow morning, here it is.
02:12It's a sharper trough.
02:13And when a trough like that's moving in your direction and it's still approaching you,
02:17you have a better chance for thunderstorms that could become strong to severe.
02:20So let's go back to the graphics.
02:23And two areas to highlight for this Wednesday evening.
02:25Neither of these are huge areas, but a lot of people live in them.
02:29Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron, Canton, up into Erie, PA, Jamestown, New York,
02:36the interior, far interior northeast, northeast Ohio, western New York, northwest PA.
02:40Flash flooding and damaging wind.
02:42Limited, very limited tornado threat.
02:44That's the one area.
02:45And I highlighted that other disturbance is going to be kind of increasingly digging into parts of Iowa late at
02:52night.
02:53These might be late bloomers.
02:54So given the heat in the evening and also the potential for this disturbance to dig into the plains later
03:02tonight,
03:03strong storms late tonight as well, and this evening into the southern plains, into the Ozark Plateau as well,
03:08at least on the Missouri side of the table.
03:10Now there's a lot of heat out there adjacent to all this.
03:13And we're dealing with an area of widespread heat.
03:18The heat dome is getting squashed by these fronts that are occasionally kind of punching holes in it.
03:24Another disturbance here.
03:25But overall, it's kind of beating down.
03:28These fronts and troughs to the north are beating down the heat dome.
03:32But it's still present.
03:33And if we look at Thursday's record-challenging highs, there won't be a whole lot of records actually broken.
03:38But among these cities, which are strong candidates, Greenwood, Mississippi, may actually break a record high for hottest September 10th.
03:4697 would do it.
03:47The record for September 10th is 96.
03:49It will almost be up to records in other areas.
03:51It's going to be hot there in Needles, California.
03:53112, record 113 from 1990 on September 10th.
03:57All right, so there's another day in which the forecast begins to look kind of similar to tonight.
04:03Here we have Thursday.
04:04Our front takes another step southeast.
04:07And again, we're highlighting a large area with showers and heavy thunderstorms with drenching downpours that will be a problem.
04:14So let's see how this plays out here on Thursday.
04:19You know what?
04:20I'm going to go back to this graphic here.
04:21Thursday.
04:22Now you can see that disturbance that we talked about digging into Iowa.
04:27So that helps to focus the Great Lakes trough.
04:32And it basically runs into the back end of this front.
04:36It basically is going to kind of accelerate enough that it will feed energy into our slow-moving front.
04:43Why is the front moving so slow?
04:44Because the driver behind it is way, way up in northern parts of Ontario and now Quebec by the time
04:49we get to Friday.
04:50And it's just so far removed.
04:52So it's like it's beginning to drift east and there's no longer a strong, firm push to bring it east.
04:57So this next disturbance runs into the back of it.
04:59And that's going to further enhance rain, drenching thunderstorms on Thursday night.
05:04And there we are early Friday morning in many areas.
05:07So the heavy rain may look a lot like this here on Thursday.
05:10You can see areas from north Texas, southern Oklahoma, all the way to D.C.
05:14Thursday evening, Thursday night.
05:16Here is the NAM, another depiction of it.
05:19NAM is a little slim east of the Appalachians.
05:22And here's the European model.
05:23Both pretty timid east of the Appalachians, aside from Virginia, Thursday evening.
05:29So don't expect a whole lot in Philadelphia.
05:31But if we were to look at how much rain might fall over the next 72 hours or so into
05:37the beginning of the weekend.
05:38Here's the GFS.
05:40Here's the NAM.
05:42And where you see those pockets in central Missouri.
05:44Man, that's a lot of rain.
05:46Five plus inches of rain also into areas near Paducah and Murray, Kentucky.
05:50And then here's the European.
05:52Where, you know, you've got a lot of areas in that one to two, two plus inch range there in
05:56the Ohio Valley.
05:57That's the potential for the heaviest rain.
05:58And going back to our graphics.
06:02We're highlighting on Thursday.
06:05Kind of the southern and south central part of the U.S. here.
06:09As that front knocks on the door of that extreme heat there in Arkansas.
06:14Friday, we've got another hot one to the south.
06:17Some areas on Friday will challenge record highs.
06:19Breaking record highs, actually.
06:20In Laredo, McAllen, Borger, Texas will be close.
06:24Roswell should break a record as well.
06:26And I'm going to just end with a look at the weekend.
06:28Kind of a weekend preview.
06:29Still sizzling in Texas.
06:31The front never makes it through Texas.
06:32Showers and storms return to the northeast, especially on Sunday.
06:35And we remain extraordinarily quiet in the Atlantic.
06:40And one closing shot.
06:42Look at this.
06:43Some mountain snowflakes at the end of the weekend into the northern Rockies.
06:46It's getting to be that time of the year.
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