- 4 weeks ago
Willard and Dibs discuss what they expect from the 49ers' defense this season.
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00:00So we're sitting here talking out a little bit of visualization for the 49ers season.
00:05When you visualize it right now, what do you see?
00:07The thing that I said off the top was I believe that this team will be less reliant,
00:14less about Christian McCaffrey.
00:16The team was just completely about Christian McCaffrey last year.
00:20I see a much more versatile group.
00:22Let me give you another one.
00:24Let's go to the defensive side.
00:26Stiney brought this up on the crossover.
00:28It's a fair question.
00:28What do we know?
00:30What do we expect from the defense?
00:31I'll raise my hand.
00:33I have no idea.
00:33I really don't.
00:35Did they do enough to create a pass rush?
00:37Plus, Nick Bosa is back, at least in theory.
00:41He looks like he's good to go.
00:43So should they have a better pass rush?
00:45Does that trickle down to make the secondary a lot better?
00:49Does Dre Greenlaw look like at least some version of his former self next to Fred Warner?
00:55I can make a case that it's going to be a really good defense.
00:59But there are question marks for sure.
01:01What I'll say, as far as a visualization for the defense, I think you're going to see a defense that
01:08takes a lot more risks.
01:10And therefore, I see a defense that is going to cause many more turnovers.
01:16I see a defense that will have some big playability, but that goes both ways.
01:23I see a defense that's also, because they're going to blitz more, because they're going to take some more chances,
01:29I see a defense with those safeties, still young, might get beat over the top here and there.
01:35And so, yeah, you're going to see that risk-reward thing on display.
01:40That's my guess right now for the Niner defense.
01:43I would agree with that.
01:43And if you look at last year's defense, we all want to cash shade on the fact that the defense
01:49wasn't great.
01:49You didn't have a lot of takeaways.
01:51You didn't have a lot of sacks, and we know that.
01:53They were dead last in sacks with only 20.
01:55But if you look at the actual numbers of it, they were mid-pack in points allowed, and they were
02:02in the middle, really the middle third in terms of yards allowed.
02:06So last year was about bend but don't break.
02:08You lost Nick Bosa in game three.
02:10You lost Mikel Williams, and you had really nothing else that you could really rely on.
02:15And I don't think that Robert Sala is a very blitz-heavy guy in general.
02:19And so now you get Bosa back, theoretically, knock on wood, and you've got Raheem Morris now, who is much
02:25more willing to blitz.
02:27So I think you're right in terms of you're going to see a lot more, you know, bring five, bring
02:31six, maybe even, you know, do the old Steve Wilkes.
02:34I can honestly say I'm sort of built for that, which is a cover zero, and you blitz everybody.
02:39You're going to see more risks in terms of the defense, and it's going to lead to, I think, more
02:44turnover.
02:45First for you, but also more big plays against you.
02:48I just think that the most under-discussed portion of 49er football this offseason has been the defensive backfield.
02:54I don't hear anybody talking about Lenore.
02:56I don't hear anybody talking about Upton Stout.
02:59I don't really hear anyone talking that much, a little bit.
03:02I know there's some concern about Renardo Green.
03:05And then Prysock, the kid, is going to be a part of this.
03:08And then there are others.
03:09That's right, I know Hobbs is on IR.
03:11We could see him later in the year.
03:13We're – I just think that group, if we focus on them, we can have concerns about their individual play.
03:22But when I look at the collective, my hope, my visualization is that you're going to see much better production
03:30from that group,
03:31not because they are suddenly great players.
03:35And I think they are – look, Lenore's a good player.
03:37Stout's a good player.
03:39Green is still a little bit of an unknown.
03:42Prysock's a rookie.
03:43And we can throw the safeties into this as well.
03:46These are guys that have had good moments and bad moments.
03:49They've lacked consistency.
03:50They're all still really young.
03:52But I think you're going to see better performance, not because they're a year older.
03:57I think you're going to see better performance because less is being asked of them this year.
04:01In other words, the quarterback's internal clock this year should be less than what it was last year,
04:09because last year it was dropped back, and you can just go ahead and have as long as you want.
04:13Then you just look around, let your receiver go right, let him go left, let him figure it out, and
04:19complete a pass.
04:20They were the group that had their pants around their ankles last year, and it wasn't their fault.
04:26That's the way I see it.
04:27I think you're going to see a lot more interceptions this year because the pass rush is going to make
04:31that defensive backfield a better group.
04:33And that makes sense.
04:34I mean, if you look across all the football teams that actually rush the passer and are able to get
04:40sacks and put pressure on the quarterback,
04:41you're going to get more turnovers accordingly.
04:44And I'm looking at last year, they had turnovers in only nine games defensively.
04:49Nine of the 17 games were they able to actually generate a turnover, and in those nine games, they were
04:558-1.
04:56So in the games that they actually were able to take the ball away, they would win almost every single
05:03one.
05:03And even at that, they had, just looking at the numbers right here, they had 16 turnovers they got defensively
05:10in the 17 regular season games,
05:11which is a remarkably low number.
05:14When you have that number combined with the sack number, combined with the rushing yards per carry number,
05:20you should go 5-12, not 12-5.
05:22No, I think that's actually one of the big things about this year is we're all still trying to figure
05:27out what the hell happened last year,
05:29and my take is you won't.
05:31You know, you can find certain things, and you're like, ooh, that's how they were able to go 12-5
05:36despite all of the injuries.
05:37And then you'll find other things where you're like, there's no way in hell you can go 12-5 doing
05:42that stuff.
05:42You can't do that.
05:43You didn't sack the quarterback.
05:45You didn't turn the ball over.
05:46Your defensive metrics were terrible.
05:47You were not a good defense, and you went 12-5.
05:50That doesn't make any sense.
05:51And you played in a really good division that many believe had the two other best teams in football in
05:57that division.
05:58Somehow, you won a bunch of football games.
06:01So I look at this year as sort of trying to figure out which perspective you want to grab.
06:07If injuries are that kind of a subject matter again, do I think the Niners can still be successful?
06:15No, I don't at all.
06:1812 wins with that kind of injury luck?
06:20Hell no.
06:21But you can just as easily, I think, grab the opposite perspective,
06:26which is that if the 49ers are given some sort of health, just even a little bit,
06:32like some guys are going to get hurt, I get that,
06:34but if you're given just a little bit of luck in your key positions in terms of health,
06:40can you actually still be an elite football team?
06:44If they're given a little bit of health, if you can do that, what you did last year,
06:49what do you do if you've actually got your players?
06:53That's the way I want to look at it.
06:57I don't know how it's going to go, but I want to look at it that way.
07:01If Fred Warner plays a season, if Brock Purdy plays a season,
07:06and if Nick Bosa and George Kittle can just do, I don't know, give me something in the teens.
07:11And Mike Evans, give me something in the teens in terms of the number of games you play.
07:14Give me 13 or 14 or 15 games.
07:17Maybe not all of them.
07:18But if you can do that, then what does this group have as a ceiling in terms of what they
07:25can achieve?
07:26To me, it's pretty high.
07:27It's pretty high.
07:28For me, it's really Nick Bosa, not to undermine any of the points you made
07:33and any of the other names that you went out there and named.
07:36Trent Williams obviously is huge, but if you look at the Nick Bosa,
07:40just his career, when he plays and he sacks the QB, they go very, very far.
07:46They either go to the conference championship or the Super Bowl or both.
07:50And it's not so much as, you know, Nick Bosa is everything,
07:52but when he is the player that they expected him to be when they drafted him,
07:56and he's been that in, what, five of the seven years he's been here.
08:00When he is that guy, their defense is that good.
08:04And, you know, you go ahead and you rush the quarterback,
08:06and the other pass rusher can go ahead and, you know, feast as well.
08:10And then, like you talked about, the secondary, if it's Lenore and Stout and Green
08:15and everybody else, if you've got pressure on the QB,
08:18if Nick Bosa is wreaking havoc, as he did last year,
08:21and you remember the big shrug play, and I think that was against the Saints,
08:26I think, when he came out there and he had the sack fumble and the recovery.
08:32That was against Seattle week one.
08:34Okay, it was week one.
08:35He ended the game against Seattle.
08:37Right, after the ton just, you know, up for grabs, you know,
08:40all the elixir free, the throw and the catch, and so, you know.
08:44If memory serves, sorry, he also had a big sack late versus the Saints.
08:46It just wasn't a strip sack.
08:48I think it helped ice the game.
08:49Yeah, I'm sure he did.
08:50Yeah, he had, I think, two sacks in three games that he played,
08:53and the third game was not even a full game.
08:55So, if he's out there and gets double digits,
08:58then I think that you as a defense can go ahead and, you know,
09:01start thinking about being like you talked about.
09:03I don't disagree.
09:04I would just like to hope that the 49ers,
09:06and I know on paper many people won't think it looks this way,
09:09I'd like to hope that they are a more equipped defense
09:13if Nick were to miss a game or two or three.
09:17You know what I mean?
09:18You can't, I just don't like the idea of having position groups
09:21where if one guy gets hurt, that's it, that's a wrap.
09:24We can't function.
09:25And that's what happened in the pass rush last year.
09:27He just flat out couldn't function.
09:29He goes down, and that's it.
09:31We're just not sacking the quarterback ever again.
09:33But it was also Mikel Williams, I think.
09:35And, you know, you didn't really have, I think,
09:38the depth that you hope that you have this year.
09:41And so, if you do have Bosa and, you know,
09:43Mikel Williams comes back in week five or whenever that actually is,
09:47I think that it becomes much more of a dynamic defense.
09:50Well, and the health issue is interesting to me
09:52if we could ever get anyone to expand this beyond the 49ers.
09:57It's all anybody ever wants to talk about.
09:59If they stay healthy, they'll be good.
10:00If they don't, they won't.
10:02Well, doesn't that apply to all of the football teams?
10:05One of the things that doesn't get brought up enough, in my opinion,
10:09is that the Rams and Seahawks last year experienced an unbelievably low number of injuries.
10:18And that does not always happen.
10:21And so, what if we talk about, you know, people go,
10:24oh, what's the likelihood of these old players staying healthy?
10:27What's the likelihood of the Rams and Seahawks having that kind of health again?
10:33And that's why, to me, every time a season starts,
10:37we think it's going to be one thing and then it goes completely a different way.
10:41We loved the Lions coming into last year.
10:44We loved the Lions.
10:45Who wouldn't love the Lions?
10:47Their entire defense got hurt and they finished in last place.
10:51That stuff happens.
10:52So, to me, you keep an eye on the Rams and Seahawks
10:56because they had wonderful injury luck last year.
11:00Don't know if that'll happen again.
11:01Probably not, just based on the way things kind of balance themselves out.
11:05And last year, the least injured team in football,
11:10who, by the way, also played the easiest schedule in 25 years, was the Patriots.
11:15Yep.
11:15Which is why I'm fading the Patriots this year.
11:19Second to last was the Rams.
11:21Third to last was the Seahawks.
11:23There you go.
11:24So, there are your three least injured teams last year
11:27based on, you know, the amount of players that actually contribute
11:31who missed.
11:31And they were three of the last teams standing.
11:33Right.
11:33And that was a large reason why.
11:35That was a large reason why.