00:08there is a striking paradox at the heart of donald trump's foreign policy right now what is it we
00:15tell you all about it in this one india explainer the united states remains the world's most powerful
00:21military and financial power that we know by now trump has tariffs he has sanctions he has the
00:27dollar he has the world's most powerful military as well he has the ability to restrict access to
00:34the american financial system and yet six months into the war with iran trump still has not achieved
00:40the one thing that matters the most in any war a decisive political outcome instead he appears to
00:48be escalating and that is why the question increasingly being asked is not whether trump
00:53has enough power to hurt iran canada or other adversaries the question is why is all that
01:01power not producing the outcomes trump promised and this is where trump's entire foreign policy
01:07philosophy is being tested his administration has repeatedly argued that international politics is
01:13ultimately about strength stephen miller put it very bluntly earlier this year that the world is
01:19governed by strength force and power trump himself has built his presidency around the same proposition
01:25america is bigger america is richer america is stronger therefore america should be able to make
01:32others fall in line but iran is refusing to fall in line and now canada too is refusing to do
01:39the same
01:41at that juncture it creates a problem much bigger than one war or one trade dispute because trump's
01:49model depends on coercion producing submission but coercion works only when the other side believes that
01:56resisting america will cost more than surrendering to american demands and increasingly that calculation
02:03appears to be changing take the example of iran six months into the conflict washington is now
02:09talking about what it calls an economic onslaught against tehran what was going on till now then treasury
02:16secretary secretary scott besson has announced a new campaign to choke iran's financial lifelines and
02:21warned countries around the world that doing business with iran could expose them to u.s retaliation
02:27the administration has even described this as an economic d-day but there is an important distinction
02:34here d-day was a military operation that actually happened what washington announced this week is
02:40primarily a new phase of sanctions and economic pressure on tehran the united states is actually
02:46threatening to squeeze iran's banks shipping networks oil trade technology and other sources of revenue
02:53and the objective is clear if military pressure has not forced tehran to capitulate perhaps economic
03:00strangulation will but here is the problem the united states has been sanctioning iran for decades now
03:07this is not a new thing that is happening iran meanwhile has developed entire systems to survive
03:14these sanctions it has built alternative trading networks it has developed relationships with china
03:19russia and other countries it has learned how to move oil through complex networks and most importantly
03:26iran does not have to defeat the united states militarily to frustrate trump's strategy it simply has to
03:33survive that is much lower bar given any comparison and that may be exactly what tehran is doing as of
03:42now
03:42reuters reports that washington has so far stopped short of immediately imposing the harshest
03:48secondary sanctions on major chinese financial institutions involved in iranian oil trade and that
03:55exposes the central contradiction in trump's strategy the administration wants to shut down iran's
04:02economic lifeline but to do that completely washington may have to confront china maybe rubbed beijing the
04:08wrong way and that could turn an iran war into a much bigger confrontation with beijing and whether
04:14donald trump wants that wants that or not remains to be seen china is one of the iran's most important
04:22economic lifelines and a major buyer of the iranian oil so the question becomes is trump prepared to impose
04:29sanctions so severe that they threaten america's own relationship with china and potentially destabilize
04:36global energy and financial markets that is where american power encounters its limits because
04:43economic warfare is never one way if you squeeze iran's oil in sports you affect the global oil market
04:50if you target companies and banks in third countries you create retaliation if you attack china's
04:57economic relationship with iran beijing has tools of its own we have already seen china demonstrate
05:04its willingness to use critical minerals and rare earth as leverage in disputes with washington and
05:10there is another problem also american consumers ultimately pay a price for prolonged economic warfare
05:17oil prices rise transportation costs rise food prices can rise inflation becomes politically painful
05:25and that brings us to the second battlefield canada in the vicinity in the neighborhood of united states
05:32of america the fact that canada has become one of trump's most difficult confrontation is politically
05:39significant and it is true also canada is not iran it is a close american ally it's a neighbor also
05:48it
05:48shares the world's longest unfended international border with the united states its economy is deeply
05:55integrated with america's and yet prime minister mark carney is now openly accusing washington of using
06:02economic integration as a weapon trade negotiations have collapsed trump has imposed 50 percent tariffs
06:08on around 20 billion dollars of canadian imports canada is preparing retaliatory measures it's not backing
06:16down and trump is now threatening even higher tariffs on canadian cars auto parts and steel trump's message is
06:23simple america is stronger canada needs america more than america needs canada therefore canada should
06:29surrender but that is exactly where the strategy begins to run into political reality carney's response
06:35is effectively no canada is willing to absorb economic pain rather than accept what it considers an
06:42unacceptable political bargain and that matters because trump's negotiating strategy depends heavily
06:49on the assumption that the other side will blink first possibly under the weight of america's military
06:57power or for that matter the economic power but what happens when the other side decides that national
07:02sovereignty is worth paying an economic price for that is what makes the canada confrontation so important
07:09it is no longer simply about tariffs it is becoming a test of whether the world's largest economy can force
07:16a close
07:17ally to accept its demands and so far the answer is not clear in fact the opposite may be happening
07:24the
07:25confrontation is strengthening canadian political resistance and that creates another paradox for trump
07:31the more pressure he applies the more he may be encouraging his opponents to unite against him
07:37this is also happening internationally trump's strategy assumes that american economic power can be
07:43converted into political obedience but other countries are increasingly asking a different question
07:49if the united states can weaponize trade finance and economic independence against its allies and
07:56adversaries should countries become less dependent on america that is a politically potentially historic
08:04consequence because america's greatest economic weapon is also one of its greatest sources of influence
08:11markets interdependence interdependence the dollar american markets american banks american technology american
08:18consumers for decades countries accepted enormous dependence on the united states because the benefits were greater
08:25than the risks but if washington repeatedly turns that dependence into coercive leverage countries have an incentive
08:32to diversify not immediately not completely but gradually and that could weaken american leverage over time
08:41now none of this means trump is powerless that would be a mistake in fact the opposite is true trump
08:46still possesses extraordinary coercive power and sanctions can work experts have repeatedly pointed out that sanctions
08:54become much more effective when a large coalition of countries enforces them together the problem for trump is that
09:01building that coalition requires diplomacy it requires trust it requires allies to believe that washington's pressure is
09:09legitimate and predictable and that is precisely what trump's approach risks damaging iran is difficult to isolate because
09:17countries such as china have economic interests there canada is difficult to intimidate because it is a sovereign ally with
09:24its own domestic
09:25political calculations and america's european and asian partners have their own concerns about becoming collateral damage in
09:32washington's economic wars so trump is now caught in a strategic dilemma if he escalates the economic costs rise if
09:40he backs down his threats
09:41lose credibility if he sanctions china he risks a much bigger confrontation if he doesn't sanction china iran retains an
09:49economic
09:50lifeline and if he continues the war without achieving a political settlement the american public begins to ask the most
09:57most uncomfortable question what exactly are we fighting for that question is already becoming
10:04politically important given the primaries are just a few months ago a reuters ipsos poll reported on august 24
10:12this year it found that u.s public support for the war with iran had fallen to its lowest level
10:19since the
10:20conflicts early days while trump's overall approval remained at a record low and that brings us to the most dangerous
10:26part of trump's predicament time trump's strategy works best when he can demonstrate quick victories
10:33a dramatic tariff announcement a major concession a leader backing down a country accepting an american
10:39demand or maybe picking up another country's president in nick of time but prolonged conflicts produce the
10:47opposite effect people start looking at the costs businesses start calculating the consequences markets start
10:54picking unnecessarily uncertainty and voters start asking whether the promised victory is actually
11:01coming or not that is why the latest developments may represent more than just another escalation trump
11:06is trying almost everything in the book military pressure economic sanctions tariffs diplomatic threats
11:13secondary sanctions public humiliation and the threat of even more punishment but the more tools he uses
11:21without producing a decisive result the more the perception of american power itself becomes part of the story
11:28because power is not simply the ability to threaten power is ability to convert threats into outcomes
11:34and that is where trump appears to be struggling he can hurt iran he can hurt canada he can impose
11:40enormous economic costs too but can he make them surrender on his own terms that remains unsolved
11:51so
11:52you
11:53you
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