00:00Currently, the armed forces are facing a troop shortage. Over the past 7 years, the number of
00:03troops has decreased by 110,000. This means that the minimum required number of 500,000 troops
00:07is not being met, and the current number has dropped to 450,000. In 2019, there were 563,000
00:12troops, but now that number has decreased to 450,000. That's a decrease of 113,000 troops.
00:17In particular, the army has seen a significant reduction. In 2019, the army had 429,000 troops,
00:22but now that number has dropped to 324,000. If we look only at army soldiers, the number has
00:26decreased from 303,000 to 205,000, a reduction of nearly 100,000. Due to the low birth rate,
00:32several divisions have simply disappeared. This is how severe the troop shortage is.
00:35So the military decided to merge and reorganize divisions.
00:38In 2006, South Korea had a total of 59 divisions, but now that number has dropped to 41. Just last
00:42November, the 28th division, also known as the Typhoon Division, was disbanded. The military says
00:46the reduction in troops is due to the continuous decrease in available manpower caused by the
00:49declining population. They believe that various factors, such as a decline in preference for
00:52career military roles due to improved treatment of enlisted soldiers, have played a role. The military
00:56also announced that they will continue to review various measures to prepare for a declining
00:58population, such as expanding the use of civilian personnel in non-combat areas and making long-term
01:02use of officers and non-commissioned officers. In this situation, the remarks made by the head of
01:06the Military Manpower Administration are causing a lot of controversy. Hong So Young, the head of the
01:09Military Manpower Administration, announced stricter conscription standards to secure more male
01:12military personnel in response to the decrease in standing forces. The measures include raising the
01:16exemption age for those who have stayed abroad for a long time to 43 and expanding the conscription
01:19targets to include naturalized citizens, North Korean defectors, and more men in general. At the same time,
01:23controversy is growing as he reiterated his position that the introduction of conscription for women
01:27will not be considered. The Military Manpower Administration is planning to raise the age
01:30for exemption from mandatory enlistment to 43 by 2026, and is also reviewing policies regarding
01:35about a thousand naturalized or North Korean defector men each year. And they are also planning
01:38to tighten the criteria for exempting people with mental health issues so that more of them can be
01:42sent to active duty. As someone who has served in the military myself, I have a lot I want to
01:46say about
01:46this. Anyway, the Military Manpower Administration is trying to solve the current severe manpower shortage
01:50by bringing more men into the military. As I mentioned earlier, the number of troops is
01:54decreasing significantly. But what's even more noteworthy is that even after taking measures
01:57to increase the active duty selection rate, they still couldn't prevent the manpower shortage.
02:01The active duty selection rate rose from 69.8% to 86.7%, an increase of 16.9 percentage points.
02:06This was a measure to secure enlistment numbers by increasing the proportion of those classified as
02:10active duty among those subject to military service. But as the number of young people taking the
02:13military service examination itself fell in the first place, the effectiveness was limited.
02:16No matter how much the rate of those classified as active duty increases, if the population subject
02:20to examination continues to decrease, the absolute number of people entering the military will
02:23inevitably continue to decline. What's even more concerning is that a similar trend is appearing
02:27not only among soldiers, but also among the career military personnel responsible for the military's
02:31expertise. The selection rate for career military personnel, which was about 90 in 2019,
02:36has dropped to about 50 in 2024. This means that the military is not able to recruit enough
02:40personnel as planned. It's already difficult to secure enough soldiers, and if we can't secure enough
02:44officers and non-commissioned officers as well, it could become even more burdensome to maintain
02:47the specialized personnel needed for unit operations, training, and equipment management.
02:51But the problems currently occurring in the military are not limited to just the decrease in new
02:54personnel. The number of mid-level leaders who are already serving and choosing to leave the
02:57military is also rapidly increasing. In 2021, 960 mid-level leaders applied for voluntary discharge,
03:03but that number rose to 1301 in 2022, 1495 in 2023, and reached 1821 in 2024. By September 2025,
03:19the increase in the number of people taking leave is also something to pay attention to. In 2021,
03:232,252 people were on leave, but that number continued to rise to 2,612 in 2022, 3,068 in
03:292023,
03:29and 3,412 in 2024. By September 2025, it had already been recorded that 3,401 people had taken leave.
03:35In addition, since the number of non-commissioned officers, officers, and new recruits is also
03:38decreasing, the military is seeing a structure where incoming personnel are decreasing while the
03:41departure of existing personnel is increasing. In particular, mid-level leaders are personnel
03:45who have accumulated experience in unit operations, equipment management, personnel and training,
03:49and operational procedures while serving in the military for a certain period of time.
03:53They are truly like the backbone of the military. Even if their positions are filled with new
03:56junior leaders, it is difficult to immediately achieve the same level of proficiency. Therefore,
04:00the current issue of recruiting career military personnel can affect not only the overall number of
04:03troops, but also the military's proficiency and command structure. The decrease in population is not only
04:07reducing the number of soldiers, but also affecting the ability to secure the specialized personnel
04:11needed to maintain the military. This makes the situation even more serious. Looking ahead,
04:15the outlook is even more concerning. If the current population structure and conscription system of the
04:18armed forces continue, it is expected that the total number of soldiers will decrease to 290,000
04:23in 2030, 260,000 in 2035, and as low as 150,000 by 2040. In particular, it is estimated that
04:30the number of
04:30new recruits entering the military in 2040 will be around 100,000. As the number of people joining the military
04:35will
04:35decrease significantly compared to now, it will inevitably become more difficult to maintain the
04:39current force structure. The problem is that Korea is not the only country experiencing a population
04:42decline. North Korea is also affected by a decline in birth rates, but if we look at the current size
04:46of
04:46North Korea's military and its service system, the manpower gap between South and North Korea is likely
04:49to persist for quite some time. Based on data from the National Statistical Office, if we assume that the
04:53conscription rate in 2022 and 2040 remains the same, the size of the North Korean military in 2040 is
04:57estimated to be about 1.13 million. On the other hand, it is projected that at the same point in
05:01time,
05:01South Korea's total military strength could decrease to about 270,000 with around 150,000
05:05soldiers and about 120,000 officers and non-commissioned officers. If this happens,
05:09the total military strength of North and South Korea will differ by about 4 to 1. Even now,
05:13the North Korean military has a much larger force than the South Korean military, and if the
05:16population structure continues in the current direction, that gap could widen even further.
05:21Especially in a situation where the number of army troops is greatly reduced, it can become more
05:24difficult to deploy the necessary forces and secure reserve troops in the border areas. If a small
05:27number of troops are responsible for a large area, there may not be enough personnel to redeploy when units
05:30need support or reinforcements. What's important here is that you can't judge the outcome of a war
05:34based solely on the number of troops. The South Korean military has strengths over the North
05:37Korean military in areas such as Air Force and Navy precision strike capabilities,
05:40surveillance and reconnaissance systems, information and communications technology,
05:43and defense industry capabilities. Therefore, it's not appropriate to compare actual combat power
05:47based solely on the numbers. 1.13 million for North Korea and 270,000 for South Korea.
05:52However, the situation can change if the war becomes prolonged. When combat continues,
05:55not only frontline combat troops, but also rear support, equipment maintenance, supply,
05:58transportation, security, and facility defense become important. This is because a large number
06:02of personnel are needed for various tasks such as evacuating the wounded. This is also why the
06:05U.S. military's operational principles state that the attacking side must secure a significant
06:08numerical advantage over the defending side, and the defending side must also deploy enough troops to
06:12defend key areas. It is commonly mentioned that an attacking force needs about a 3 to 1 advantage,
06:16while a defending force can hold out with relatively fewer troops. However, if the structure
06:20projected for 2040 comes true with about 1.13 million North Korean troops and about 270,000 South Korean troops,
06:25North Korea would have roughly 4 times as many troops as South Korea, just in terms of numbers.
06:29This means that it will become even more important for South Korea to decide where
06:32and how many troops to deploy for defense. Especially even if North Korea does not deploy
06:35all its troops at once, the South Korean military must be prepared to respond to situations that
06:39could occur simultaneously in multiple areas. This includes not only the front lines, but also
06:42major cities and ports. Defense personnel are also needed for airports, military facilities,
06:46and command centers. Therefore, as troop numbers decrease in the future, the key issue will be how
06:49quickly the restructuring of units, expansion of unmanned systems, and strengthening of reserve
06:53forces promoted by the Ministry of National Defense can fill the resulting gaps in military strength.
06:56This leads to the following question. The question is, if there aren't enough people,
06:59can't we just replace them with drones and AI? In fact, the Ministry of National Defense is actively
07:03promoting the establishment of an integrated manned-unmanned combat system as a key solution
07:06to the decrease in available personnel, drones, and unmanned aerial vehicles. The plan is to expand
07:10unmanned forces such as unmanned submarines and actively utilize AI technology for the surveillance
07:14and security of major military facilities. The Ministry of National Defense has announced a vision to
07:17significantly expand unmanned forces by 2040 and to restructure the military so that some security
07:20roles previously handled by people will be automated. The advantages of this approach are clear.
07:24Even without people being directly involved in combat, it allows for long-term surveillance and
07:28reconnaissance, and by operating multiple unmanned systems at the same time, it is possible to
07:32continuously monitor a wide area, especially in areas that require repetitive surveillance,
07:36such as the GOP or major military facilities. A method that combines sensors, radar, cameras,
07:40and AI analysis systems to automatically detect unusual movements can be used. This is more
07:44effective than having people constantly monitor all the screens. It can be more efficient for AI to
07:47analyze large amounts of data first, and then filter and report suspicious situations. However,
07:52there are clear limitations to this. This is because the tasks that unmanned systems can handle,
07:56and the tasks that must be done by humans are different. Drones can conduct reconnaissance,
07:59but you still need personnel to maintain the equipment and manage batteries and parts.
08:02Skilled personnel are also needed to analyze the information collected by unmanned vehicles,
08:05and to connect it to operational commands. If you consider situations where communication networks
08:08are cut off, or unmanned systems do not function properly due to electronic warfare attacks,
08:12it is difficult to entrust all tasks to technology. Another important issue is that,
08:15as advanced weapons increase, the value of specialized personnel to operate them also
08:18rises. Fighter jets, air defense systems, precision strike weapons, satellite communications.
08:22To properly operate electronic warfare equipment and unmanned systems, you need personnel with
08:26sufficient training and experience. Securing a lot of equipment and having the ability to actually
08:30use that equipment effectively on the battlefield are two different issues. Therefore,
08:33the future of the Korean military is likely to move toward increasing AI and unmanned systems as
08:36the number of personnel decreases, but it's difficult for technology to completely replace human forces.
08:40On the contrary, since fewer personnel will have to operate more advanced equipment,
08:43the importance of specialized personnel who can handle high-level technology within the military
08:47may become even greater. The Deakinon era of decreasing troop numbers is not simply to reduce
08:51personnel, but to figure out how to combine people, AI, and unmanned systems so that combat
08:54power can be maintained even with fewer soldiers.
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