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00:01I don't know. It's always weird to me how, not that you can get an NFL play-by-play job
00:08without being at 150% enthusiasm level at all times anymore.
00:13No one cares that the best ever were never like that, but that's how you have to sound.
00:17It's always weird to me that teams pick from, I don't know who that is, sorry, teams pick from the
00:24network guys, some of them, the Bills do, Catalan,
00:28to do their preseason games, and there's a picture of the guy with the Bills shirt, and he works for
00:33CBS,
00:34but now he's working for us for three weeks, and then I guess that ends, you know, break the ties
00:40when the preseason's over
00:41and just back to objectivity or something. I don't know. It's also incestuous. I almost said a different word.
00:49That would have been wrong. Be careful if you're going to criticize like this and get the words wrong.
00:53That does not really earn you much credibility.
00:59On the Western Hotline, Sam Panijatovic. I was setting up for Sam today. I'm like, you know, one time you're
01:05at your parents' pool,
01:06the next time you're at a bachelor party in Las Vegas, you're hosting a panel on sports betting,
01:10you're moving from Boston to Chicago, today's going to be, you know, free and easy, right?
01:15And as soon as I'm thinking of that, I get a text from Sam, hey, I'm at the airport.
01:19So, I don't know. Do you ever slow down?
01:23I'm never home. Usually when I leave my house at 8 o'clock in the morning, I get home at
01:2710 or 11 o'clock at night.
01:29The door people don't even recognize me, and I live there, you know, which is funny.
01:33I can tell you, I can fully report, though, I am live at the Logan Airport where my flight has
01:37already been delayed two hours.
01:38But good news, I got everything out of my house yesterday, and then I went to a house party where
01:43I took this place out of money and darts.
01:45I took all their money and darts.
01:47Oh, wow. So, you flew, maybe you stopped in Chicago first, but you went from Las Vegas, where you were
01:53last Friday when we talked,
01:54and then to Boston, and you're sort of cleaning up Boston before you, and cleaning out Boston, apparently, before heading
02:00home.
02:01That's the deal?
02:02Yep. Yep. Take the over on miles, Bulldog.
02:06All right. Well, I'll tell him next time I see him.
02:10Yesterday, I was just peeking at some futures odds and saw the Bills and Ravens, who have been equal in
02:17Super Bowl odds every time I've looked this summer.
02:20But the Ravens are shorter or closer to the top when it comes to regular season wins.
02:26And for a minute, I didn't know what I was looking at, but so there's a little bit of a
02:30difference there.
02:31Bills versus Ravens this year for you. I think you're kind of off Baltimore, right?
02:35Well, I like Buffalo more, but after the last season, I'm so jaded and so hurt.
02:40You know, it's like an ex-girlfriend.
02:42You know, you don't like them anymore because they just hurt you in the worst of ways, because I had
02:46Buffalo in so many different ways.
02:49From a power rating standpoint, I feel like we have this conversation every offseason.
02:52It's Baltimore and Buffalo right at the top, and that's what any odds maker would tell you.
02:57And, you know, when you look at the future board, Mike, excuse me, you got, you know, the Rams on
03:02top, but then in the AFC, it's Buffalo and Baltimore, 10 to 1.
03:06So it's the same old song and dance where, you know, they're highly rated, they're highly respected, and they play
03:12to a high rating.
03:13But I think a lot of wise guys have sort of morphed off of those teams in terms of playing
03:17them to do big things.
03:19You don't necessarily see people betting under on Baltimore or under on Buffalo in the win total market, but you're
03:26seeing money in different places.
03:27You're seeing money on Denver to win the AFC.
03:29You're seeing money on the Chargers.
03:31You're actually seeing money on the Houston Texans.
03:34And, of course, as we've talked about, Mike, you got a lot of money, wise guy money on Cincinnati.
03:39That team has come down.
03:40They were 30 to 1 like two weeks ago when we talked, and now I look at DraftKings as I
03:44have the app up.
03:45I see a 20 at DK, and I don't have the board in front of me, but, you know, you're
03:49not seeing that future money, AFC or Super Bowl, on Buffalo and Baltimore.
03:55I think the books kind of like it that way.
03:56You make them high.
03:58If you want to take 10 to 1 Super Bowl, you want to take 5 to 1 AFC, by all
04:03means, go for it.
04:04I have Buffalo a smidge higher, to answer your initial question, but I have no dollars on Baltimore or Buffalo
04:11at this point in time.
04:12That's different from last year.
04:13I think by mid-August last year, we were hearing about your exploits with the Bills, winning the division, the
04:19AFC, the whole thing.
04:20Does that sound right?
04:22Oh, yeah.
04:23I had Buffalo parlayed, I think, six different ways.
04:25I had Buffalo in this, Buffalo in that.
04:28I had probably five or six different wagers, but Buffalo was my key.
04:32And, of course, they don't win the division, so that was a slap in the face.
04:36I go back to that game.
04:37Was it a Sunday night game when they played the Patriots?
04:39And you're just like, oh, they were in such a good spot to win that game and really, like, put
04:45their foot on New England's neck.
04:46And then from that point forward, New England just got hot.
04:49I mean, it was really two teams last offseason.
04:52All the hype, all the public hype, Chicago, New England.
04:56And you're like, oh, well, they both can't make the playoffs.
04:58And I believe they both were the two seed in their respective conferences.
05:01It doesn't usually happen like that.
05:03But, yeah, I just, after last season, and we all know how the season ended, I had Buffalo.
05:08God, if Buffalo would have won the Super Bowl, I'd have won, like, $70,000 or something like that.
05:13But, you know, it is what it is.
05:14We live to fight another day.
05:16Well, at least you have those friends with the dartboard.
05:19Yes.
05:21Do you want to give, are you inclined to give the public more respect this year?
05:24Have the trends changed, or was that maybe just a one-time thing that, I mean, the Bears,
05:33you've talked about the Bears a lot and called them a public team,
05:36and then they went and had the season they had last year and won a playoff game.
05:40So, is it, fantasy is changing like this, Sam.
05:43I think the Sharps, if you will, are having a tougher time finding edges.
05:49And I wonder if that's true in betting.
05:52It's a really good question.
05:53I used to be a lot more contrarian.
05:56I'd go back maybe 10 years.
05:58I think the public is a lot more informed than they've ever been, if that makes any sense.
06:02I mean, you have so much information and so many websites.
06:05I mean, as a fantasy guy, you know this.
06:06How many sites do you check every day for fantasy?
06:08I'm guessing it's five or six, right?
06:10Yes, exactly.
06:11Yes.
06:11Yeah.
06:12So, bettors can now look at whether it's a site like Covers or StatFox,
06:16or you have all these odd screens and bet splits and Action Network and whatever.
06:20So, I think the public is a little more informed.
06:23I don't think so.
06:24I mean, in a vacuum, if you were to take the public, and let's go 10 years, okay?
06:28So, let's take the two most public teams over a 10-year span.
06:32So, that's 20 different bets.
06:34I would guess if you faded them, you'd probably at this point go like 13-7 or 12-8.
06:39Whereas, maybe, you know, five, six years ago, you're 14-6.
06:45I think the public is generally smarter.
06:48I don't think they're, like, going to be, you know, building mansions, though, anytime soon.
06:53And I'll tell you what, like, that Chicago point that you just made,
06:57and the Westgate, Circa, South Point stations, all these casinos in Vegas.
07:01I was there, I don't even know how long ago, because everything runs together.
07:05I'm guessing it was a week.
07:06Yes.
07:07They're all just telling me that, like, they can't write an under bet on Chicago.
07:12And it's a little different than last year, because, obviously, the Bears were the fourth team on the board.
07:18You know, it was one, two, three, four.
07:19The Bears were fourth.
07:20This year, they're the most popular team.
07:24It's not even close.
07:26So, I think you look at their defense.
07:28I mean, Kobe Bryant's already heard.
07:29I don't know if you saw that story.
07:30Initially, they said he was going to miss six to eight weeks, and now it's three to four months.
07:33How does that happen, number one?
07:35But, number two, they're going to start maybe three rookies on defense.
07:39And this is a team that was, I believe, 27th or 28th in yards allowed last year on defense.
07:44So, they gave up a ton of chunk plays.
07:47The thing for Chicago that worked in their favor was that they led the league in takeaways.
07:51I would imagine that's going to regress.
07:54You can't do that year over year in this league.
07:57So, if you didn't really fix your defense, and you're now banged up,
08:02or you're going to start a third-string safety and a rookie safety, oh, by the way,
08:05Dylan Thienemann, Montez Sweat is already hurt up front.
08:08They're putting a lot of stock in this kid, Austin Booker, on the line.
08:11We have no idea what he's going to be.
08:12I think their defense could be atrocious, Mike.
08:15So, you couple that with their first-place schedule now, because they won the division,
08:20it's a much tougher sell for me this year.
08:22I actually did kind of like the Bears to make the playoffs last year.
08:25This year, I would be looking to short.
08:27And I'll tell you what, you could probably wait until opening day.
08:30You could probably wait until September 13th, get the best of a number, and then go under the total.
08:36With Sam Paniatovich, I'm Mike Shope.
08:38Bulldog is off through next week.
08:40I wanted to say, my instinct was, to your points about the Bears,
08:44how many times does a division winner open the next year,
08:47or even get to the start of the season the next year, as the third choice in that division?
08:52But as I look, there are four of those this year.
08:55I mean, say what you want about Carolina and Pittsburgh,
09:00but they're both the third choice in their respective divisions.
09:04And so is Denver in the AFC West after 14 wins.
09:08That one's closer.
09:09Kansas City's Chargers and Denver are pretty bunched up.
09:13NFC North, Chicago's like almost double the odds of Detroit that finish last.
09:19So, not a ton of respect there.
09:21No, certainly not.
09:23And, you know, I think this is a fun question to play, or to play with yourself.
09:28Like, if you were to take one of the fourth teams in the division,
09:31like I have the odds up right now.
09:32So, take one of the teams that has the longest odds.
09:34Love it.
09:35Who would you take first?
09:36I'll let you go first.
09:38We're going to draft these?
09:40We could, sure.
09:41We could do that.
09:42All right.
09:43I just closed it, but I want to play.
09:44So, it's Miami, it's Cleveland, it's the Raiders, it's the Titans, it's going to be the Giants,
09:53the Vikings, there's my pick, the AFC South, Carolina, NFC South, Atlanta?
10:03NFC South is, yeah, Atlanta, 4-1, though.
10:06Not a big long shot.
10:07And then Arizona.
10:09I'll take Minnesota.
10:11Yeah, I was going to take Minnesota, too.
10:13I just keep hearing great things about their coordinators,
10:15and everybody is oozing over Kyler Murray,
10:17which I don't know if anybody saw the news that he was named a starter officially,
10:21and the memes were so funny.
10:22I mean, like, they just, they put him at the podium,
10:25and he can't see over the podium.
10:26It's very, very funny.
10:27But if he can actually deliver, you know, some high-quality quarterback play,
10:32they could win this division.
10:33It's funny, the Vikings are treated like the Bears were last summer.
10:37Nobody was talking about the Bears last summer to win the division.
10:40People were betting they're over the win total,
10:42but Minnesota at 5-1 I think is a good bet.
10:44I like Tennessee, man, and I know that's, you know, famous last words.
10:48Yeah, 8-1, putting a lot of faith in Cam Ward, of course,
10:51but I'm a big fan of their defense.
10:53They got a lot better on that side of the ball,
10:55and Robert Sala is always going to be a guy who keeps you out of the end zone.
10:59So at 8-1 in the AFC South, look, I get it.
11:02The Texans are really, really good.
11:03That's a solid roster.
11:05But I'm not a Stroud guy.
11:06I never have been.
11:07So at 8-1 in Tennessee, yeah, that's going to get my money for sure.
11:11We don't have to go all the way with this.
11:13I mean, we mentioned Atlanta quickly.
11:14I think the Giants are the only other one that's interesting.
11:17It's never Vegas, Miami, Cleveland, or Arizona.
11:20But the Giants might have a look.
11:22And in the AFC South, you're talking about Tennessee.
11:25Like, that's happened before.
11:26Houston, when it first won that division maybe now three years ago,
11:30was huge odds to do that.
11:32I remember talking about that with Joe Ostrowski.
11:34I wanted to ask you a couple quick ones on stat leaders.
11:38We've had fun with this in the past.
11:40And yesterday I got a stat that I played around with how in each of the last six NFL seasons,
11:47passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards have been different players.
11:5018 different guys in the last six years have led in those categories.
11:55And whether or not there's somebody here this year that you'd like to sort of repeat,
11:59it's not even not just two in a row.
12:01It's just nobody's won two in that span of six years.
12:03I think receiving yard leaders, there's some fun long shots.
12:07One is Burden, speaking of the Bears, at plus 5,000.
12:12One is Pickens for me at plus 3,000.
12:15That's the one of the three stats where I'd like to get a little weird.
12:19Yeah, Pickens is a good call, 30 to 1.
12:21And you could probably find a better number.
12:22I don't have the range in front of me, but when there's a 30 at one place,
12:25there could be a 40 or a 50 at another.
12:27And as we always talk, you should always shop.
12:30Especially when you get to like 50 to 60 to one range,
12:32you could find a 50 at DK and a 100 at FanDuel.
12:34So just get the best number.
12:36Pickens is a good call because we know the Cowboys defensively are not great.
12:40Even though they've made some nice moves, I still don't trust them.
12:45I like, look, I just kind of dogged the Bears a little bit,
12:47but I think if you play it the way it kind of could go,
12:52I think they're going to be down in a ton of games.
12:55And I think Caleb's going to throw the ball a ton, man.
12:57So 20 to one, 25 to one on Caleb to lead the league in passing yards.
13:01I don't hate that.
13:02I also was looking at sacks.
13:04When you sent me that text this morning, I'm like, ooh,
13:06what can I get on TJ Watt?
13:08He's 16 to one to lead the league in sacks.
13:10That doesn't even sound right, does it?
13:12No, I guess not.
13:13I didn't look at anything defensive, but where does that put him?
13:16I guess eighth?
13:17I see 16 to one, eighth.
13:18Yeah, yeah.
13:19So Garrett's 250, Hutch is five, Daniil Hunter's six,
13:22Will Anderson is six, and so on and so forth.
13:26If TJ Watt's going to give me 14 games plus,
13:28I got a chance there at 16 to one.
13:31How about Jared Verset, plus 5,000,
13:33facing Rodgers and Burrow twice each?
13:36Yeah, that's, you know, you could get lost.
13:38You can get lost in these markets, Mike.
13:40It's so fun.
13:40Yes, I know, I know.
13:41And Rodgers will not allow himself to be sacked.
13:44He's just going to throw the ball on the ground.
13:45Burrow loves to get sacked.
13:47So I want to bet on that.
13:50You mentioned Burden.
13:52Be careful with Burden.
13:53He's a very trendy player, obviously,
13:55and he's going super high in fantasy leagues,
13:56but he already has a groin injury.
14:00So I'd be careful with all that Luther Burden stock.
14:03Got a running back thought or no?
14:07Not really.
14:07I hate the running back bets because you know the guy that I bet
14:10is going to go out in week four and be done for the season.
14:12I have a hard time being confident in a running back.
14:16Yeah, there are some fun names down the list, like always,
14:19but not what seem like great values.
14:22What's the latest with our White Sox?
14:24If you know, I mean, you're traveling all over the place.
14:26We're not winning series as often as we were.
14:29Well, I think I don't have the standings in front of me.
14:31Let me pull them up real quick.
14:32I believe 66 and a half is going to win.
14:34We are 62 and 48.
14:38So we need five more wins to hit the win total over.
14:42I'm nervous.
14:43What did we talk about a month ago, man?
14:44The Tigers.
14:45Yeah.
14:46I was banging the drum.
14:48And then, of course, they trade Scooble and Casey Mize,
14:50and they're still winning.
14:51That lineup is so good.
14:53And that's the team.
14:54If you ask me, like, who's going to spoil the White Sox division ticket
14:58that we got at 40-1, it's the Tigers.
15:00They terrify me, man.
15:01I just have playoffs, so I'm not sweating quite as profusely.
15:05But, yes, I agree on Detroit.
15:08All right, Sam.
15:09Well, sorry that you're going to be stuck there a little bit longer,
15:11but at least your pockets are full.
15:14It's all right.
15:15I deserve it.
15:16You deserve it.
15:18Okay.
15:18Well, I will not follow up on that.
15:19Thanks for your time and have a safe flight home.
15:22All right.
15:22See you, Mike.
15:22Sam Paniatovich now with Fox 32 in Chicago.
15:28And if he moves on from there, I think we'll probably just keep going with Sam,
15:32as long as he wants to do it.
15:33No guest, to my knowledge, that we've ever had is as eager to sort of, like,
15:40come on as Sam.
15:42I mean, most people are fine with it, but Sam is like, yes, I know I'm going up.
15:50I'm on SpaceX this weekend, but that's no problem.
15:54I'll still find you guys.
15:55That's cool.
15:56I'll never quit you.
16:00And I'm grateful for that.
16:03And so he and Joe are no longer working together.
16:08It was the Odyssey show that was sacked, and then it was chicken dinner.
16:14They're no longer working together.
16:16But I did, I want you to know, I did reach out to Joe.
16:19I've texted with him a few times in the last few weeks.
16:22And the chair is here for him if he wants to do it.
16:24He's super knowledgeable.
16:25He's been a valuable part of our thing.
16:28We love the content from Joe and Sam on Thursday and Friday afternoons
16:32during the football season.
16:33So I'm not sure it's going to happen, but it's his if he wants it.
16:37And just like with Sam on Fridays, Joe Ostrowski, a big part of our last few years.
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