00:00On my three favorite picks of UFC 330, we start on the prelims with Joel Alvarez versus Chidi and Joe
00:05Guani.
00:06Bunch of big 170-pounders over at Welterweight.
00:09I still think that Joel Alvarez has title aspirations in the UFC here at some point.
00:14I think that Joel Alvarez's path of least resistance is to get a takedown win by submission.
00:18We saw in Joe Guani get submitted by Jake Matthews, kind of insta-subbed, rear naked choke almost immediately.
00:25I'm definitely bullish here.
00:26Joel Alvarez by submission, plus 195 over on FanDuel is the bet.
00:30We're going right to the co-main event, and we're going to Jillian Robertson against Mackenzie Dern.
00:34Jillian Robertson coming in as a plus 185 underdog.
00:37Robertson, super violent, and I've been bullish on her for a long time.
00:40She was actually one of my title picks for the strawweight division.
00:44Mackenzie Dern, I think Mackenzie Dern's probably the best submission artist that we've seen at this division, if not ever,
00:50maybe in a very long time.
00:52But there are some holes in her game a little bit.
00:53She accepted takedowns against Verna Jandaroba.
00:56I thought that fight was really close.
00:57Jandaroba obviously got her down nine times.
00:59I think if Robertson gets her down, she's so violent with the elbows and with the ground and pound, especially
01:04if she gets the back.
01:05I think that Jillian Robertson here, very live as an underdog, but I actually don't like the underdog price as
01:10much as I love that TKO.
01:1114-1 on FanDuel.
01:13Fantastic odds.
01:14Big odds.
01:15Give me Jillian Robertson by KO.
01:17TKO.
01:1814-1 on FanDuel.
01:19So we move on to the main event, Ian Machado, Gary versus Islam Mahachev.
01:24Here's my issue with Islam Mahachev at the current price.
01:27Remember, he actually got knocked down by Alexander Volkanovsky.
01:29Honestly, should have lost that fight.
01:31Bad decision, in my opinion.
01:32You know, I think you're kind of just banking on Mahachev being heavier and stronger to get Gary down.
01:38I just don't want to bet on that.
01:40I think that Gary at plus 290 is a really good value side.
01:43And again, 6'3 versus 5'11.
01:45Ian Gary should have enough size here to stop his takedowns a little bit.
01:49So give me Ian Gary.
01:50How about this?
01:51And new, I am projecting Ian Gary to win the belt at plus 290.
01:55We'll see you next time.
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