Russia Hid Something IRREPLACEABLE in Crimea… Ukraine Just VAPORIZED It | Other War Stories - video Dailymotion

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⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 Russian Forces Hid THIS in CRIMEA… So Ukraine Turned It Into Ash 17:23 U.S. Sends Poland Dire WARNING… MASSIVE Invasion Imminent 34:11 Putin Got AMBUSHED Outside His Bunker… And Then HUMILIATED 50:49 Europe Just Did Something It Hasn't Done Since 1945… 01:08:17 Putin's Worst Nightmare Just Took Command in Ukraine  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow

Transcript

00:00:00Russian innovation is a strange old beast. The country doesn't really come up with anything,

00:00:05instead it looks at what others build and says, let's make some of that only worse.

00:00:10And wouldn't you just know it, Ukraine's maritime drones have become the latest

00:00:14target of Russia's so-called inventors. Russia saw Ukraine's success with its drones in the Black Sea,

00:00:20so it built a base, and in that base was something that Russia truly thought could

00:00:24turn the tide of the naval war. Its own maritime drones, built to rival Ukraine's far better

00:00:29designs. But Russia had a problem. It needed to hide its sea drones in a base close enough to the

00:00:35Black Sea where they could actually have an impact. That was a mistake. Ukraine found the base and it

00:00:41just wiped Russia's copycat drones off the face of the earth. Nestled close to the settlement of

00:00:46Yevpetoria lies Snezna. It's far from the most impressive of Russia's naval bases on the stolen

00:00:52Crimean Peninsula. Sevastopol is much larger and until recently was the home base of the dreaded Black Sea

00:00:58fleet. However, Snezna is important because it hides something that Russia needs. A fleet of

00:01:04maritime drones has been sent to this small base as part of Russia's attempts to seize control over

00:01:09the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Russia wants to copy Ukraine's game plan. Knowing that the Black

00:01:16Sea fleet has been rendered practically useless as warships that are part of the fleet are massive

00:01:20targets for Ukraine's maritime drones, Russia wanted to fight fire with fire. Sea drone with sea drone.

00:01:27It was playing catch-up and copying Ukraine's homework as always, but Russia thought that if

00:01:32it could just protect Snezna, it could build a base filled with maritime drones that it could use to

00:01:37retake control. Ukraine had something to say about that. On July 30th, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems

00:01:44Forces, or SBS, announced that it had launched a devastating strike against the Russian base.

00:01:50Declaring the success on Telegram, as he so often does, the exuberant commander of the SBS,

00:01:55Robert Brovdy, revealed that operatives from the Kairos Battalion were responsible for the attack.

00:02:01Kairos has a reputation. One of Ukraine's most secretive battalions, Kairos operates under the

00:02:07tightest of security protocols. Members are banned from drinking alcohol and aren't allowed to tell

00:02:12anybody where they are serving or what they are doing. Even polygraph tests are in place, regularly

00:02:18testing Kairos members and ensuring their compliance with the strict secrets entrusted to them.

00:02:24That secrecy pays off. The only time we hear about what Kairos is doing is in the aftermath of the

00:02:29group's strikes. Never before. Every scrap of planning is kept under wraps, and it's only the

00:02:35fires and destruction Kairos leaves in its wake that reveal what the battalion has been up to.

00:02:39Such was the case in Snizna. Kairos struck, and a key Crimean maritime drone port burned.

00:02:47Much of the operation is still shrouded in secrecy. We don't know for sure which of Russia's drones

00:02:52have gone down, though we'll speculate soon. But what we do have, beyond Brovdy's confirmation,

00:02:57is some footage. Three minutes of video, which shows us that Ukraine did what it does best to take out

00:03:03the Snizna base, send aerial drones in to shatter Russian infrastructure. Over and over we see the

00:03:09view from Ukrainian drones as they hurtle toward the base and later to other targets across Crimea

00:03:15and the occupied territories. We also see the aftermath. Flames emitting clouds of smoke so massive

00:03:22that they fill the screen are seen rising from Russia's sea drone base. We see hangars being struck

00:03:28and large blasts rolling up and down the port. Whatever Russia was trying to hide here clearly

00:03:34went up in flames, and careful observers will also notice that something seems to be absent from the

00:03:40footage. Russian air defense fire. Where is it? Nobody knows, but the video demonstrates a complete

00:03:46lack of tracer fire that we often see in footage like this, and no hint of the missiles that Russia

00:03:51usually launches to try to destroy Ukraine's drones. We can't say for certain that Kairos has a clear

00:03:57path to Russia's Crimean sea drone base, but what we seem to be seeing is the impact of an isolation

00:04:03strategy that Ukraine has followed for much of 2026. Perhaps there is no air defense fire because

00:04:08the increasingly limited systems that Russia has left in Crimea could not be spared for its sea

00:04:13drone base. Even if Russia did have defenses that it could have sent to the base, it might not have

00:04:18been able to get them there. The fuel crisis that racks Crimea due to Ukraine's isolation strategy

00:04:23is making it difficult for Russia to transport air defense systems to where they need to be,

00:04:28UK are informed reported on July 14th. Perhaps it wouldn't have even mattered if Russia discovered

00:04:33the Kairos battalion's plan. The strikes would have probably happened anyway. We may never know.

00:04:39And that's the point of Kairos. Any information we learn about what, how, or when this battalion strikes

00:04:44is carefully disseminated to the public. And the battalion never offers more than it wants the world to

00:04:49know. The only reason we know this strike happened at all is that Kairos clearly wanted to send a

00:04:54message to Russia. You can't hide your sea drones, Putin. Kairos knows where they are and it can strike

00:05:00at any time. As for what Kairos hit at Snizna, we know some things for sure. The footage shows hangars

00:05:06being hit hard. Presumably those hangars were filled with the sea drones that Russia would have

00:05:11eventually sent into the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. As for what those drones might have been, we can

00:05:16only

00:05:16speculate based on what we know about Russia's copycat program and the maritime drones that it

00:05:21produced. Perhaps Ukraine took out Orkans. These small maritime drones are similar to those Ukraine

00:05:27initially deployed in the Black Sea, and they are believed to be capable of carrying payloads of

00:05:31around 100 liters. Or maybe Russia was keeping Katran Sea drones at Snizna. These aluminium maritime drones,

00:05:38which shroud their engines in the metal as a possible means of disguising their infrared signatures,

00:05:42have been seen with machine guns mounted on their hulls. The dandelion,

00:05:46with its reported 43-knot speed and 600 kg payload, may also have been at Snizna,

00:05:52as might the Mirena 300S, which is basically Russia's version of Ukraine's Magura V-5,

00:05:58though it can reportedly be armed with torpedoes. Ukraine would be happy with destroying any of

00:06:02these types of sea drones at Snizna. Who knows, it might have gotten all of them. The only way we'll

00:06:07find out is if Ukraine reports on the results of its strike at Russia's sea drone base in Crimea

00:06:11beyond the initial reveal. Russia is stinging. What just happened at Snizna was a massive blow

00:06:17to Putin and his desire to re-establish dominance in the Black Sea arena that has long ago slipped out

00:06:23of his control. The copycats have just been killed off. But before we explain why that matters and

00:06:29why Russia was working so hard to play catch up to Ukraine on the sea drone front, this is a

00:06:34reminder

00:06:34that you are watching the military show. If you like what you see from our channel, remember to hit

00:06:38subscribe and enable notifications to see more insight-packed videos like these.

00:06:44Now you might be wondering why Russia would bother to build sea drones in the first place.

00:06:49After all, Russia has the Black Sea Fleet. Before Putin launched his invasion, that fleet,

00:06:54which was believed to have 40 surface warships and 7 submarines, was supposed to be one of the most

00:06:59important assets that Russia had. This fleet would offer control over the sea that gives it the name it

00:07:04carries and Ukraine wouldn't be able to do a thing about it. Russia, in its arrogance, thought Ukraine

00:07:09brought nothing to the naval battle. What did it even have? A few patrol ships and mine warfare vessels?

00:07:16That would be nothing against the might of the Black Sea Fleet. With its warships, Russia would control

00:07:21the Black Sea, giving its troops and equipment an easy waterborne route into Ukraine, along with the

00:07:26ability to hinder Ukraine's attempts to export grain via Black Sea waters. That was the plan, at least.

00:07:32In 2026, we know that Russia's plan did not work.

00:07:36The little nation with no navy has devastated the Black Sea Fleet. By the summer of 2024,

00:07:43about a third of that fleet had been taken out. With many of Russia's warships having absorbed

00:07:47Ukrainian strikes, Ukraine still didn't have a single warship in play. But what it did have was missiles,

00:07:53such as Storm Shadow, provided by its Western allies, an increasing stockpile of aerial drones and,

00:07:59of course, maritime drones. Those drones, which Ukraine started developing in the spring of 2022,

00:08:05have been a game-changer in the Black Sea. The first to make headlines was the Magura V-5,

00:08:10which can carry up to 300 kilograms of explosives and has conducted kamikaze raids against Russian

00:08:16warships throughout the war. Other innovations followed. The Seababy now has a huge range of up to

00:08:211,500 kilometers and can carry a 2,000-kilogram payload. It can also drop mines and even serve

00:08:29as a mothership for aerial drones. With the Moby Dick, Ukraine has a modular sea drone platform that

00:08:34has a ton of different uses, from reconnaissance to assault. Ukraine didn't need a traditional navy.

00:08:41It could overpower Russia's massive and plodding ships with small and fast drones that are incredibly

00:08:47difficult to detect and deadly when they get into range. Ukraine's sea drones have overpowered the

00:08:52Black Sea Fleet. That fleet has been forced to retreat from its traditional home base,

00:08:56and Russian warships are now very rare sites in Black Sea or Sea of Azov waters. Russia's entire

00:09:03naval calculus has been changed, and it's all due to Ukraine mastering an asymmetrical approach,

00:09:09with sea drones at its core. Ukraine also hasn't stopped with the Black Sea Fleet. Now that Russia is

00:09:15too scared to send its warships into the one place they need to be if they are to have any

00:09:18impact on

00:09:19the war, Ukraine has turned its sea drone sights toward the Shadow Fleet. In July, Ukraine's security

00:09:24service took out the Black Sea oil tanker Averro using a naval drone. These drones have also been key

00:09:31to a wider assault on Russia's Shadow Fleet in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. By the end of

00:09:35July,

00:09:36more than 200 of these ships have been crippled in a three-week campaign. Not all were hit by sea

00:09:42drones,

00:09:42but enough were, once again proving to Russia that naval warfare, at least in Ukraine, if not for the

00:09:48rest of the century, has been transformed. It's not the size of the ships or the fleet that matters

00:09:53anymore. Sea drones have changed everything, and Russia knows it. That brings us back to Snizna. The

00:09:59very existence of this Crimean base is an acknowledgement from Russia that Ukraine is

00:10:03winning the naval war. The Black Sea Fleet has been rendered almost useless. Russia's only means of

00:10:08competing now is to build its own naval drones that it hopes will go toe-to-toe with what Ukraine

00:10:14brings to the table. In the wider geopolitical context, Russia stealing Ukraine's strategy is a

00:10:19concern. Though other nations have started to build sea drones, they are a long way behind Russia,

00:10:24and even further behind Ukraine. Denmark has sent its sail drones to protect the Baltic Sea, for instance,

00:10:31and the US has started deploying its Corsair naval drone in its war against Iran. However, Russia playing

00:10:36catch-up to Ukraine means it's ahead of most Western nations when it comes to this technology.

00:10:41As the Center for Maritime Strategy warned in a March report, Moscow now fields a growing mix

00:10:47of surface and deep-sea platforms designed for reconnaissance, seabed work, and military operations.

00:10:52While these platforms can be used worldwide, their primary operating environments remain the Arctic,

00:10:58the North Atlantic, and the Baltic Sea. That's all well and good for Russia's future, assuming it has one

00:11:03after Ukraine. But it doesn't mean much right now. There's a reason why most of Russia's sea drones

00:11:09are operating far away from the Black Sea, and we just saw what that reason is on July 30th. If

00:11:15Russia

00:11:15is to stand any chance of evening the playing field on the sea drone front, it first needs to be

00:11:20able

00:11:20to reliably deploy those drones into the waters around Crimea and Ukraine. It can't do that. The

00:11:26flames rising from Snizna are the proof. As soon as Ukraine identifies a Russian maritime drone base,

00:11:31it's going to respond by sending drones of its own to take that base out of the equation.

00:11:37So Russia's so-called innovators may be trying to copy Ukraine's homework to bring maritime drones to

00:11:42Moscow, but they're getting black eye after black eye every time they try to take a peek at what

00:11:47Ukraine is doing. This most recent black eye was even bigger than it appears on the surface.

00:11:52The strike at Snizna was just the highlight of a July that saw the SBS hit 50,109 targets,

00:11:59and the headliner of a day of strikes that went far beyond Crimea and Russia's sea drone base.

00:12:04On the same night, SBS birds also rained down on radio transparent shelters at the I-Petri

00:12:11radar station in Yalta, which is also in Crimea. Kairos was responsible for that strike too,

00:12:17Euromiden press reports. Ukraine also took out a Buck M3 air defense system in the Donetsk Oblast,

00:12:23as it was being transported on a low loader, along with conducting an attack against the occupied Donetsk

00:12:28airport, which Russia uses to store and launch its Shahid-type strike drones. At Ivanovka in the

00:12:34Zaporizhia Oblast, the SBS's nemesis brigade took out a P-18 radar station. The same brigade also

00:12:41hit a Sopka II complex in Fedorovka and a Nebo SVU system at Ruski Kolodets, both of which are now

00:12:48in

00:12:48Russia's Rostov Oblast. So it was a productive night from the SBS. Beyond the sea drones,

00:12:54Ukraine took out yet more radars and air defense systems that were part of Russia's ever-shrinking

00:12:59network of aerial defenses. You know what that means for the future. More safe aerial corridors

00:13:04have been created, and strikes against other high-value targets are almost certain to be coming

00:13:10from Ukraine. The SBS is getting stronger. That's bad news for Russia if it plans on trying to send

00:13:16more of its copycat sea drones into Crimea. After seeing all of this, we can make one

00:13:21inarguable conclusion. Ukraine is winning the naval war against Russia in the Black Sea,

00:13:27and it's not even close. Russia only has itself to blame for this situation,

00:13:33as has been the case ever since Putin launched his invasion. Russia seems to believe that size and

00:13:38supposed strength matter more than strategy. Ukraine keeps on proving Russia wrong. In the Black Sea,

00:13:45Russia wasn't prepared for anything that Ukraine sent its way. That's been the case ever since

00:13:50sea drones came to the fore. In January 2025, Ukraine's intelligence service revealed that

00:13:55Russia hadn't managed to come up with anything that it could use to counter Ukraine's maritime drones,

00:14:00meaning that its only real form of defense was to fire on those drones, assuming that they were

00:14:05spotted in time. They are primarily defending against the attacks already being carried out

00:14:09directly by maritime drones. Currently, they do not have any effective countermeasures or alternatives

00:14:14to strike our maritime drones, a representative from Ukrainian intelligence said at the time.

00:14:20Fast forward to the summer of 2026, and this theme of Russia having no real answers for Ukraine's sea

00:14:25drones is still very apparent. Andrei Rezenko, who was the deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian Navy

00:14:31between 2004 and 2020, says that Russia didn't realize that the Black Sea fleet was incredibly

00:14:38vulnerable until it was far too late. As usual, Russia thought that pure power would win. What it

00:14:44didn't account for was that its entire fleet was essentially trapped in the Black Sea. What we've

00:14:49seen is Ukraine's Rorschach moment. Ukraine wasn't locked in the Black Sea with Russia. It was Russia

00:14:55that was locked in with Ukraine and its genius asymmetrical approach. The strategy relied on deploying such a

00:15:00massive force that would effectively overwhelm the opponent and accomplish its objectives.

00:15:05But thanks to this asymmetric approach, a critical vulnerability of all these massive Russian ships

00:15:10to maritime drones was exposed, Rezenko points out. He adds that a naval approach that saw Russia

00:15:16outnumber Ukraine 12 ships to 1 in 2022 has failed so badly that the difference now is 4 to 1,

00:15:23and the Russian ships that remain are basically hiding in bases, hoping not to get hit.

00:15:27So that leaves Russia where it is right now, trying to play catch up with sea drones while Ukraine

00:15:32dominates the Black Sea and Crimea so thoroughly that it can ruin Russia's drones before they ever

00:15:38get a chance to be deployed. And as a funny little coda, there is a hint that Russia, despite once

00:15:43again

00:15:43stealing from Ukraine, still hasn't quite grasped why sea drones work so well. In a July 27th report,

00:15:50the insider revealed that Russia is working on a massive sea drone that can displace 500 metric tons of

00:15:56water, essentially making it the same size as a Russian missile boat. The commander-in-chief of

00:16:01Russia's navy, Alexander Mosayev, has already appeared on Russian TV to boast about the project.

00:16:07He didn't provide any details, such as how much the drone will cost, who is building it, when it will

00:16:12be launched, or how Russia intends to control it. But it's totally real, you guys, trust Mosayev,

00:16:17it's going to be the first ship of its kind, says the Russian commander. There's a reason why Ukraine

00:16:22hasn't tried something similar. A warship-sized sea drone is a massive target that can and will be

00:16:29sunk by much smaller drones if it ever tries to enter the Black Sea. What Russia claims to be building

00:16:35is an unmanned version of ships that have already failed against Ukraine. Again, it's Russia making

00:16:40the same mistake it's made repeatedly in Ukraine. Bigger is always better in Russia. Plus, a massive

00:16:45sea drone looks good when it's presented to Putin, even if it's tactically irrelevant to the war that Russia

00:16:51is fighting right now. The most hilarious thing is that this upcoming drone, assuming it's even real,

00:16:56is the one true example of Russian innovation that we've seen in the sea drone arena so far,

00:17:00and it's so utterly pointless in the context of the Ukraine war that it may as well not exist. So,

00:17:07good work there, Russia's navy. While Mosayev goes on about a sea drone that may be years away from

00:17:12completion, Russia is watching a base that contains drones that might actually be of some use burn.

00:17:17Kairos strikes again. Ukraine's massive maritime drone advantage in the Black Sea remains.

00:17:24The US has just sent Poland a dire warning. A Russian invasion is imminent. As he descends

00:17:30deeper into the madness caused by his abject failure in Ukraine, Putin is looking for anything

00:17:36that will help him retain his grip on power. Making NATO the new enemy is his solution. And he's now

00:17:42planning something dark that nobody expected to come quite so soon. Putin thinks attacking Poland will

00:17:48solve everything. Putin is wrong. It will be his final stupid mistake. On July 3rd, the news broke.

00:17:56The US has warned Poland that Russia is planning some kind of armed provocation on Polish territory,

00:18:02and that provocation is going to come sooner rather than later. The Telegraph reports that this news

00:18:08comes from sources who work closely with the Polish President Karol Nowrocki, and that it seems likely

00:18:14that Russia's attack would target critical Polish infrastructure. The big question is how Russia

00:18:19would conduct its attack. Some believe that missiles and drones will fly into Poland, bypassing Ukraine

00:18:25to strike military facilities. Others feel that a ground invasion is possible, perhaps with Belarus's help,

00:18:31and possibly involving the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. One thing seems certain. Russia is

00:18:38preparing to do something dark. Why Putin would attack Poland when he still has his hands full with

00:18:44a losing war in Ukraine is a matter for debate, though it seems likely that Russia's leader is looking to

00:18:49provoke rather than fully invade. That's so often his game. The idea is to escalate tensions and create

00:18:55panic ahead of something much bigger, and it's a game plan that we've seen Putin use many times before.

00:19:00You could argue that Russia's initial acts of aggression in Ukraine in 2014 were a similar

00:19:05sort of provocation that served as a prelude to the full invasion that came eight years later. The idea

00:19:12is to strike while claiming ignorance, thus forcing a response that gets Russia's propaganda machine

00:19:18churning out justifications for what's to follow. We don't know if this is Putin's game plan yet, but what

00:19:23we do know is that many inside NATO believe that Russia is preparing for a fight on a much wider

00:19:28scale

00:19:28than what we see in Ukraine, and those preparations may be complete sooner than anybody would like.

00:19:34Germany's General Leutnant and the inspector of the army Christian Freuding has already warned that

00:19:40Russia will be ready to invade a NATO partner by 2029. If the attack on Poland happens, Russia will be

00:19:46three years ahead of schedule, or it may be preparing for a full invasion that will come several years later.

00:19:51Poland is taking the US warning extremely seriously. In the wake of the warning,

00:19:57Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that his nation faces a serious problem.

00:20:01I don't mean to scare anyone, but the coming months may be truly critical,

00:20:05also due to the changing nature of the war. These concerns are particularly palpable in the Baltic

00:20:10states, Tusk said, suggesting that he sees the threat posed by Russia as even wider ranging than the

00:20:16US warns. It's not just Poland that has a problem. The entire Baltic region would have to deal with

00:20:21Russia if it chooses to invade. However, Tusk also revealed that panic isn't reigning in Poland right

00:20:27now. Let's not be afraid. We are preparing for various situations, but we cannot ignore them.

00:20:32We are aware of the threats, also thanks to information from our allies, he said. In other words,

00:20:37Poland is ready for whatever Russia is going to throw at him. And Tusk is quite right to feel

00:20:42quietly confident. If Russia follows through and the US warning ends up having legs, Putin won't

00:20:47be marauding to an easy victory over Putin. He'll be making the biggest mistake he's made since he

00:20:52started his supposed special military operation in Ukraine, as he sets Russia up for a defeat so

00:20:58massive that it, and Putin himself, will never be able to recover. But we'll get to why this may be

00:21:04Putin's biggest mistake soon. First, there's what Russia is planning. Speculation abounds, but the two

00:21:10most likely courses of action are those we mentioned earlier. Drone strikes against Polish infrastructure

00:21:15or some sort of border incursion involving infantry. The latter is the more worrying of the scenarios,

00:21:21though Russia isn't in a position to launch a full ground invasion, given what's happening in Ukraine.

00:21:26Instead, the source mentioned by the Telegraph says that Russia will be likely to send a small

00:21:30contingent of Russian and perhaps Belorussian soldiers over the border into Poland as a sort of test.

00:21:36In Putin's ideal yet twisted world, Poland would immediately fire on those soldiers,

00:21:41leading to Putin being able to propagandize the incident. Look, we were just innocently walking

00:21:46into Polish territory and then they fired. Woe is me, Russia is always the victim. It's not strong

00:21:52propaganda, but Putin has proven time and again that he only needs the flimsiest of excuses to

00:21:57follow through on what he actually wants to do. More realistically, Russian forces entering Poland

00:22:02would be a provocation that pushes Poland into some sort of negotiation scenario involving the US.

00:22:08That would be seen as another win for Moscow, the Telegraph reports. If Poland chooses to negotiate

00:22:13its way out of the situation, Putin can crow about how the almighty power of the Russian army was too

00:22:19much for the Poles to deal with, forcing Poland to rely on the negotiating table rather than its own

00:22:24strength to get rid of Russia. And if Putin feels lucky, he might even try to request that Poland

00:22:30withdraw its support of Ukraine as part of these negotiations. Putin is trying to create a no-win

00:22:35situation here, and it might just work. Russia has certainly been building up as though it's

00:22:40preparing for an assault on NATO's eastern flank, if not via Poland, then perhaps via the Baltic or

00:22:45Nordic nations. As Politico points out, satellite photographs show that Russia has been building

00:22:51up its armed presence along its border with Finland, along with several other nations that are

00:22:56members of the European Union or EU. Intelligence gathered by Finnish, Swedish, Norwegian and Danish

00:23:01officials suggests that this border build-up is going to be strong enough to allow Russia to host

00:23:06around 115,000 soldiers on the edge of Nordic and Baltic territory. A saying about no smoke without

00:23:13fire comes to mind. That idiom will be on the collective Polish mind right now. And there are

00:23:19several countries that are preparing for something just like what the US is warning about. For instance,

00:23:24Poland is one of the nations, alongside Finland and the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia,

00:23:29and Lithuania, that has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention, which bans the use of anti-personnel

00:23:34landmines. All of those states argue that Russia never signed this convention and that it is using

00:23:40these types of mines in Ukraine. So, having them available to use against Russians, especially

00:23:45soldiers willing to cross their borders, is only fair. Beyond the explosives, Poland is also building

00:23:50border defenses that include massive concrete barriers, drones to counter Russian UAVs, and sensors

00:23:56to detect incoming attacks. Poland has been preparing. It doesn't believe Putin poses some

00:24:02theoretical threat. The threat is real, the US warning proves it, and Poland intends to be ready

00:24:08if a ground invasion comes. Then there are the drones. This seems the more likely course of Russian action,

00:24:15if only because we have seen Russia use drones to attempt to intimidate Poland in the past.

00:24:19In September, Russia sent 19 drones into Polish airspace, forcing a response that included the

00:24:25scrambling of fighter jets and an order to stay indoors spread throughout three Polish provinces.

00:24:30So, Russian drones are nothing new to Poland. However, the attack that the US warns about would

00:24:35involve more than Russia sending a few decoy drones to test defenses. It would be an actual attack,

00:24:41and one that involves drones targeting Polish infrastructure, perhaps striking military bases

00:24:46or energy facilities. A drone attack is possible because Putin can lie through his teeth about it.

00:24:51Oh no, we didn't mean to send drones into Poland. The GPS systems must have failed,

00:24:55Putin would claim, smiling to himself as he gets away with another provocation.

00:25:00Russia could also concoct some ridiculous excuse about launching an attack on Poland due to oppression

00:25:05of Russian people in the nation. It was only in May that the Russian State Duma approved a law

00:25:10that allows Putin to invade other countries to protect Russian citizens. That broad scope is

00:25:16purposeful as it can be used to lend a veneer of legitimacy to anything that Putin does against

00:25:21other nations, in Russia at least if nowhere else. With all of this in mind, America's warning to Poland

00:25:27has to be taken seriously. Russia has already laid the legal groundwork, its building border facilities,

00:25:33and it already has Kaliningrad on the Polish border, ready to use as a launching pad for some

00:25:38sort of invasion or act of aggression. But this is where things start to shift. An attack on Poland

00:25:44might feel like a masterstroke to Putin. It isn't. Such an attack would be a blunder on such a scale

00:25:50that it could end Putin forever, and we are about to tell you why. But before we do, this is

00:25:55The

00:25:55Military Show, and this is the kind of insight that we provide every week. Hit subscribe and ring the

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00:26:04So why would attacking Poland be Putin's biggest mistake yet? There are three reasons, starting with

00:26:10the one that Putin seems too ignorant to recognize. Poland is a powerhouse that represents a massive

00:26:16threat to the Russian military. We mentioned Poland's border build-up a few minutes ago. If that

00:26:21was all that Poland was doing, Putin wouldn't have to worry about his invasion plans. But it isn't,

00:26:25not by a long shot. Poland is NATO's biggest defense spender when it comes to spending as a share of

00:26:31gross domestic product or GDP. In 2026, Poland will spend 4.8% of its GDP on its military, which

00:26:38is

00:26:38already well past the 2% target that NATO has set in the past, and is on the verge of

00:26:43breaking through

00:26:44the 5% target by 2035 that NATO set at its 2025 summit. Poland has also been a massive supporter

00:26:50of

00:26:51Ukraine throughout its war with Russia, having sent 300 tanks at the outbreak of the invasion.

00:26:55Along with artillery, armored vehicles, and so much more since. Only the US and Turkey have

00:27:01larger armies than Poland within NATO, and Poland spends billions of dollars on the types of modern

00:27:06US weapons that give Russia a ton of trouble in Ukraine. Poland is also ahead of much of Europe

00:27:12when it comes to drones, having committed $1.7 billion in developing drone defense systems

00:27:17at the start of 2026. The Jamestown Foundation adds that Poland isn't resting on its already impressive

00:27:23laurels. The nation has the ambition to become Europe's strongest, militarily speaking, by 2030,

00:27:29which is part of the reason for the massive spending we see now. Poland is also actively

00:27:34working on growing the size of its military, with its goal being to have 300,000 active service members,

00:27:41along with 200,000 reserves, for a potential standing army of 500,000. Poland is even looking to upgrade its

00:27:49navy, having signed a memorandum of understanding that will lead it to acquiring A-26 submarines.

00:27:54All of this work has led Poland's Deputy Minister of National Defense, Paweł Zalewski,

00:27:58to laud his country as Europe's most powerful. We have the biggest land NATO army in Europe,

00:28:03with the biggest capabilities, Zalewski says, adding. We are taking lessons learned from Ukraine.

00:28:08It shows that a country at war must have very short supply chains, so we are investing in this

00:28:13capability also. None of this is bluster. Poland isn't in the business of claiming strength without

00:28:18backing it up. The country is very serious about coming Europe's military superpower,

00:28:23because it knows that the threat posed by Putin's Russia is very real. If Putin does try to invade,

00:28:29he won't face an easy enemy. He'll face a nation that has spent heavily for a situation just like

00:28:34this, as well as a fresh army that faces off against an exhausted Russian military that lacks experienced

00:28:40soldiers due to losing over 1.4 million in Ukraine, along with the dearth of equipment

00:28:45caused by the Ukraine invasion. We're not saying that a Russian invasion of Poland wouldn't be

00:28:50brutal. It would be. But Russia's military would be facing off against an army that is large,

00:28:55extremely well equipped, and has close enough ties to Ukraine that it could build up its drone forces

00:29:00very quickly. Oh, and there's that pesky little thing about Poland being a NATO man. That's the second

00:29:06reason why an attack on Poland would be Putin's biggest mistake. If Russia is foolish enough to

00:29:11send troops into Poland or unleash drones against Polish infrastructure, then Poland can do what only

00:29:16one nation has ever done before, trigger Article 5 of the NATO charter. Perhaps the most fundamental

00:29:23principle in NATO, Article 5 says that any armed attack against a NATO member is to be treated as

00:29:28though it's an attack against all members. This in turn triggers an obligation for all members to

00:29:34come to the assistance of the one member that has been attacked. The US triggered this article

00:29:38following the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center, and Poland could well be the

00:29:43next and second nation that does so. Putin can't even launch an attack against the Nordic or Baltic

00:29:48nations on whose borders he is building military infrastructure. They're all NATO members too.

00:29:53Russia isn't ready for NATO. Putin may act like it is, and some within NATO are obviously wary because

00:29:59the triggering of Article 5 by Poland would lead to a Europe-wide war. But when it comes to pure

00:30:04numbers

00:30:05and military cohesion, NATO comes out on top, assuming the US follows through on its obligations.

00:30:11The 32 members of NATO collectively spend billions of dollars more per year on defense than Russia,

00:30:17and they have the advantage of not being involved in a four-plus-year war that has drained them.

00:30:21If NATO were to bring its full force to bear against everything that Russia can throw at it,

00:30:26then it would have over 2.3 million more soldiers, about five times the number of military aircraft,

00:30:32a navy that is veering close to four times the size of Russia's, over double the main battle tanks,

00:30:38and about a million more armored vehicles than Russia. And remember, Ukraine would still be fighting,

00:30:43even though it isn't part of NATO, so there is obvious potential for a collaboration. The only thing

00:30:48holding NATO back from complete dominance would be bringing all of this firepower into Europe.

00:30:53The logistics would be insane, but Poland is strong enough to hold its ground long enough

00:30:57for NATO to get its act together. Of course, we are assuming that Russia's plans for Poland will

00:31:02trigger a full-blown war. They may not. But that just brings us to the third reason why Putin's

00:31:07Polish provocation would be his dumbest decision, the Kaliningrad problem. We mentioned this Russian

00:31:12exclave, which borders Poland, as a potential launching point for any invasion that Putin plans.

00:31:17It could indeed be used for that, only there is a problem. Kaliningrad is isolated from the Russian mainland,

00:31:23and that makes it a target if Poland and NATO want to send a message to Putin that they are

00:31:27no longer

00:31:27willing to play his games. The Telegraph reports on comments made by Holger Neumann, who is Germany's

00:31:33Air Force Chief. He says that Kaliningrad would be an obvious target if Russia tries anything in Poland

00:31:39as part of a warning that Germany would defend every inch of NATO territory against a Russian invasion.

00:31:45Back in October 2025, Ben Hodges, who is the former commander of the US Army in Europe,

00:31:50said that NATO could wipe out Kaliningrad, along with key Russian bases such as Sevastopol in Crimea,

00:31:57in the first hours of a war. And even Lithuania's foreign minister, Kastutis Budris has said,

00:32:03NATO has the capability, if necessary, to raise Russian air defenses and missile bases there to

00:32:08the ground when speaking about Kaliningrad. NATO following through on these threats would send a

00:32:13clear message. Poland wouldn't even have to invade the exclave on foot, it could just take part in an aerial

00:32:19operation that would ruin Kaliningrad, forcing Russia to fight on a single front in the ground.

00:32:24Given all of this, the question has to be asked, why would Putin even consider an attack on Poland

00:32:29now? It doesn't make sense on the surface, especially when the potential Polish and NATO

00:32:34responses, along with the ongoing Ukraine war, are taken into account. Perhaps the answer to this

00:32:39question is that Putin wants to test NATO. Whatever attack is coming may be measured to the point where

00:32:44it's not quite enough to cause a major response from Poland or triggering of Article 5. Instead,

00:32:49Putin may just want to see what happens if he pushes buttons in a way that he's never pushed them

00:32:53before. And if he gets the response that he wants, such as the negotiation scenario we mentioned earlier,

00:32:59that would be good enough for Putin. He would get to undermine Poland's sovereignty and try to

00:33:03set the stage for the weakening of Western support for Ukraine. This is a massive gamble for Putin.

00:33:08And it shows us something that Russia's president doesn't want to admit. Putin is getting

00:33:12desperate due to Russia's situation in Ukraine. That's a risk in its own right. A desperate Putin

00:33:18is a dangerous Putin, as Russia's leader may view the escalation of his Ukraine war into a Europe-wide

00:33:23conflict as the only way for him to maintain his grip on power. The logic here seems weird,

00:33:28but it makes a strange sort of sense. Trapped in the Ukraine war deadlock and watching as his

00:33:33popularity at home is on the wane, Putin's last throw of the dice could be an effort to break NATO.

00:33:39Division in the response to an attack on Poland could be his way of doing that. If NATO responds

00:33:44with strikes of its own, a cycle of retaliation would begin that Putin could use to position

00:33:49NATO as the enemy of Russia, thus supporting an argument that he has made long before he invaded

00:33:54Ukraine. It wouldn't matter that Putin started the fight. What would matter is that if he could sell

00:34:00the need for that fight to the Russian people well enough to unite them against a common cause long

00:34:04enough for him to live the rest of his days as president rather than be forcibly booted out?

00:34:09This is what desperation looks like. There's brave, and then there's having the cojones so massive

00:34:15that you could use them as your own personal life raft. Kazakhstan's president, Kasim Jamar Tokayev,

00:34:22could cross the Pacific Ocean with his. Why do we say that? So long an ally of Putin, Tokayev has

00:34:28just

00:34:28sat across from Russia's leader, on live television no less, and delivered a message directly to his

00:34:34face, Russia is going to lose, so end the war now. Putin crawled out of one of his many bunkers

00:34:41for

00:34:41this. He was humiliated, unable to do anything other than grimace as Tokayev spoke, and now Putin

00:34:47has to deal with the fact that even those who are supposed to support him can see the writing on

00:34:52the

00:34:52wall for Russia. This was supposed to be a moment of triumph for Putin. On July 25th, after venturing

00:34:58out into the public domain for the first time in weeks, Putin started with a carefully controlled

00:35:03publicity stunt in Irkutsk. Russia's leader then ventured to Omsk to meet with Tokayev. Putin's

00:35:09handlers had timed the visit well. By the end of July, the smoke would have cleared and the smell of

00:35:13burning fuel that resulted from Ukraine conducting a record-breaking strike against the refinery in that

00:35:18Siberian city would have disappeared. Putin would now have an opportunity to stand with Tokayev on

00:35:25national television, to deliver a message to the Russian people about economic cooperation

00:35:30and all of the deals that the two leaders were going to strike between each other. Putin was looking

00:35:35forward to discussing the next steps in the evolution of the relationship between these two

00:35:38nations. Tokayev had other ideas. As Kazakhstan's president began to speak, none of the Putin

00:35:45pleasuring platitudes that Russia's leader expected to hear were on his mind. Tokayev actually had

00:35:51something to say. He didn't want to talk about details. Tokayev wanted to talk about Ukraine.

00:35:56And the words that came out of Tokayev's mouth would have felt like a slap in Putin's face that

00:36:01was so hard it could have been delivered by the crew of Jackass and their giant hand contraption.

00:36:06I will not hide the fact that I am receiving many signals, of which I have already informed you about

00:36:10by phone from Europe and the United States of America regarding the current state of the conflict

00:36:15between Ukraine and Russia. Tokayev declared as television cameras filmed every remark and every

00:36:21single one of Putin's grimaces to be beamed out all over Russia. Tokayev then went on to state,

00:36:27the nature of this conflict is not entirely clear. Again, he did this right in front of Putin,

00:36:33almost nonchalantly letting the entire world know that the many reasons that Putin has given for

00:36:37his invasion from wanting to combat Nazism in the country, to his history-twisting claims that

00:36:42Russians and Ukrainians are one people, hold no water. Tokayev doesn't believe any of it.

00:36:48Then Tokayev delivered the slap heard around the world.

00:36:51This all needs to stop, Kazakhstan's president declared, as he called on Putin to

00:36:56freeze the war. And when he does, Tokayev added, Putin won't be able to count on Kazakhstan to serve as

00:37:03a mediator that might be friendly to Russia. Kazakhstan categorically refuses to be that

00:37:09mediator, Tokayev blared. After all, Russia is a great country and it can manage on its own,

00:37:15the Kazakh leader said. Putin was stunned, blindsided. The best he could offer in response

00:37:21when he rose to speak again was a weak claim that he would offer a detailed briefing to Tokayev after

00:37:26the

00:37:26media event was over. That briefing would be pointless, Tokayev has heard it all before and Putin knows it.

00:37:32What Russia's leader has just had to endure as being forced to sit in the background as a

00:37:36president who is allied to Russia, at least in terms of trade and economic growth, just went

00:37:40off on him about how stupid he is for continuing a war that he clearly isn't winning. Putin was

00:37:45humiliated. He'd have been having a good day up until this point. That Irkutsk visit had gone well,

00:37:51as Putin turned up at the region's aviation plant during an unannounced visit, where he inspected an

00:37:56MC-21 passenger jet and a Yak-130M combat trainer. The bodyguards that surrounded him hinted at Putin's

00:38:03paranoia and fear of assassination. But it had all gone well. Then Putin arrived in Omsk to get

00:38:09waylaid by a man who was supposed to kneel down, kiss the ring and thank Russia for serving as a

00:38:14trading partner. Dmitry Kalezev, who is a Russian journalist, summed the whole humiliation up perfectly,

00:38:20stating, Ultimately, it amounted to a polite articulation of the argument that Putin's

00:38:25invasion of Ukraine was essentially an act of madness and a personal whim. This was, of course,

00:38:30a slap in the face for Putin, who had been peddling his root cause of the conflict for years,

00:38:34and now this public rebuke delivered straight to his face, there are no root causes, Putin simply made

00:38:40them up. Bruised and beleaguered from an encounter that was supposed to go so much differently,

00:38:45Putin would have left to hunker down in another of his bunkers. He had been humiliated,

00:38:49directly insulted to his face by a man whom he trusted to toe the line. And as he once again

00:38:55hid himself from view, likely not to emerge publicly again for weeks as he recovered from

00:39:00the embarrassment, there would have been one word playing on repeat in his mind. Why?

00:39:04It's a good question and one that has a multi-faceted answer. In a moment,

00:39:08we're going to explain all of the reasons that Tokayev had for doing what he just did to Putin.

00:39:12But before we do this, this is the military show. If you haven't subscribed to the channel,

00:39:17now is the perfect time. And while you're at it, remember to ring the notification bell to make

00:39:21sure our daily videos arrive in your feed. Now, the obvious answer to Putin's big question might

00:39:26seem to be Ukraine itself. Putin will immediately descend into a frothing rage about how Ukraine

00:39:31has turned Kazakhstan against Russia, but he would only be half right. And not for the reasons that he

00:39:36thinks. Though long a trade ally of Russia, Kazakhstan has never once given Putin any indication

00:39:42that it supports him or his supposed special military operation in Ukraine.

00:39:46From very early on in the war, Kazakhstan declared that it doesn't recognize any of what it called the

00:39:52separatist territories in Ukraine as independent. That put the kibosh on any support that Putin might

00:39:57have expected. Officially, Kazakhstan doesn't recognize occupied Crimea as being Russian,

00:40:03nor does it recognize any of the territory that Russia has occupied since February 2022.

00:40:08That land is Ukrainian and should remain so, Kazakhstan says.

00:40:12But Putin could absorb that. Kazakhstan is far more important to Russia as a trade partner,

00:40:17not a military one. It's not like the Central Asian country has a particularly impressive military,

00:40:22so even this lack of support for Russia's actions was unlikely to translate into military aid to Ukraine.

00:40:27Plus, this is what Kazakhstan does, Putin would have reasoned. It walks the tightrope of diplomacy

00:40:32between everyone to remain as neutral as possible. Still, what Putin's invasion did, and he never saw

00:40:38this coming, was create a fissure in Russia's relationship with Kazakhstan. It wasn't and still

00:40:43isn't an outright split. However, as the years have gone on, the nature of the relationship between

00:40:48the two has changed. Before Ukraine, Russia was clearly the more powerful nation. There was a

00:40:53partnership, but it was far from equal. That has been the case for most of Central Asia, where Putin has

00:40:58spent years building Russia's influence by designing economic frameworks that favor Russia and insisting

00:41:03on the idea that Russia is the one nation that can keep countries like Kazakhstan safe.

00:41:08The invasion of Ukraine broke something in this relationship. It showed Kazakhstan that Russia

00:41:13could easily turn on any nation based on Putin's whims. And worse yet for Putin, the four and a half

00:41:18years of war and counting that have followed have shown that Russia is far from being as strong as it

00:41:23once was. The collective security arguments are no longer convincing, and as time has progressed,

00:41:28and Ukraine continues not only to hold out but cause serious damage to Russia,

00:41:33leaders like Tokayev are losing whatever fear that they may have had about speaking out.

00:41:37So Kazakhstan's collective opinion about what is happening in Ukraine plays a significant

00:41:41role in what we saw in Omsk. But it's the outcomes of Putin's invasion so far that offer the real

00:41:47reasons for Tokayev's actions. As the war has progressed, the balance of power between Russia and

00:41:52Kazakhstan has started to shift. We aren't about to tell you that Kazakhstan is now the more powerful

00:41:56of the two. It isn't, but Kazakhstan has evolved into a partner that was once nice to have but has

00:42:02now become absolutely essential to Russia's survival against Ukraine. Tokayev knows that he now has

00:42:07leverage, and the clearest example of that leverage comes from the recent requests Russia has made to

00:42:12Kazakhstan for help with its growing fuel problem. As more of Russia's refineries burn and Ukraine

00:42:18continues to destroy fuel trucks and tankers all over the occupied territories, Russia has been

00:42:23plunged into a fuel crisis. Putin, cap in hand, approached Kazakhstan toward the end of June to

00:42:29request 50,000 tons of gasoline to help alleviate the massive queues that were forming outside of

00:42:34gas stations all over Russia. Kazakhstan didn't commit immediately, only acquiescing to Putin's requests

00:42:40around a week after it was made. But in that moment, two things became clear to Tokayev. First,

00:42:48Kazakhstan is the little brother that can be squeezed whenever needed, despite the damage

00:42:52that such squeezing could do to Kazakhstan itself. And second, Russia is desperate. It has to be if

00:42:58it's asking for gasoline when the entire Russian nation is built around oil. This is the leverage

00:43:03that we're talking about. Tokayev knows that Putin needs Kazakhstan. Of course, Kazakhstan needs Russia

00:43:08too. Much of the oil that Kazakhstan sells makes its way through Russian pipelines first, and then on to

00:43:14other customers. But being so vital to Russia comes with some benefits, one of which appears to be

00:43:19having the ability to sit across from Putin and tell him, to his face, that his Ukraine invasion

00:43:24makes no sense and it's time that he ended his war. On top of all of this, Tokayev's statements serve

00:43:29as

00:43:30recognition of a fact that has become abundantly clear. Ukraine is a very dangerous country.

00:43:35Kazakhstan wants the Ukraine war to end because it's also having to deal with the aftermath of drone

00:43:40strikes that affect its ability to sell fuel and oil. Ukraine isn't hitting Kazakhstan directly.

00:43:45That would be a diplomatic mistake for the country that seems willing to support Ukraine's right to

00:43:49be a sovereign nation. But what Ukraine has been doing is striking that oil infrastructure upon which

00:43:54Kazakhstan relies that we mentioned. The Moscow Times reports that Ukraine's recent flurry of drone

00:44:00strikes in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, particularly attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium

00:44:05terminal, have forced Kazakhstan's oil firms to reduce their daily output. Though described as

00:44:11a purely technical decision, the move is another reminder to Kazakhstan that Putin's war is damaging

00:44:16the nation. Ukraine has also regularly struck Novorossiysk, which is a Black Sea port. Now the

00:44:22hideout for the remnants of the Black Sea fleet, which has been chased out of its traditional base in

00:44:26Crimea's Sevastopol port, Novorossiysk is also a commercial port. Again, oil flows through it,

00:44:32some of it Kazakh, and that adds up to yet more disruption that Takaev doesn't want to have to

00:44:37absorb on Putin's behalf. After all, Kazakhstan is like Russia in one respect. Its oil and gas sector

00:44:43is absolutely vital to Kazakhstan's economic health. Forbes reports that energy sales make up more than

00:44:4930% of Kazakhstan's gross domestic product and accounts for over 75% of the country's exports.

00:44:55If Ukraine's drones keep flying into the ports and terminals that Kazakhstan needs to sell its product,

00:45:00that amounts to economic pain for the country's people. So Takaev's motivations are becoming

00:45:05clearer. There is an element of taking advantage of Kazakh leverage at play, but ultimately,

00:45:10Takaev is doing what he is supposed to be doing, looking out for Kazakhstan. When he tells Putin that

00:45:16it's time to end the war, he's doing it because he knows that Russia can't win, not in the way

00:45:20that

00:45:20Putin wants to win. And as long as Putin keeps charging headlong into the endless abyss of his own

00:45:25ambition, life can't return to normal for Kazakhstan. Putin has a Kazakhstan-shaped problem.

00:45:32But beyond all of the reasons behind why Takaev did what he did, there's an even larger issue brewing

00:45:37for Russia's leader. That issue comes down to something we touched upon earlier, which is that

00:45:41Kazakhstan is trying to be a friend to as many nations as possible. The Ukraine war has dragged

00:45:46on for so long now that playing all sides isn't an option anymore. Kazakhstan's multi-vector foreign

00:45:52policy, as Common Space puts it, has been put to repeated tests over the past half a decade.

00:45:57Be that by Russia's war, Operation Epic Fury, or creeping Chinese influence into Central Asia,

00:46:03now Kazakhstan is being pushed toward having to choose a side. July 25th showed Putin one important

00:46:08thing. Russia isn't going to be the side that Kazakhstan chooses. Let's come back to one of the

00:46:14more interesting parts of Takaev's short speech. You heard it earlier. Takaev told Putin that he had

00:46:19received many signals from parties in the United States and Europe regarding the current state

00:46:24of Russia's campaign. The mystery here relates to what those signals were. We've talked about

00:46:29Kazakhstan having leverage over Russia, while the West has leverage over Kazakhstan. American and European

00:46:35leaders know that Kazakhstan and all of Central Asia have energy-related vulnerabilities due to their

00:46:40reliance on Russia as a go-between for their oil and the rest of the world. When Takaev talks about

00:46:45receiving signals, he may be hinting that Western leaders have been letting him know that he needs

00:46:49to start putting pressure on Putin, or they may start applying their own leverage. Perhaps not by

00:46:54purchasing Kazakh oil. Kazakhstan is now the European Union's third-largest oil supplier,

00:47:00so maybe there are threats being made about how all of that could go away if Takaev doesn't apply some

00:47:04pressure. This is speculation, of course. Takaev only hinted at Western influence, and that influence

00:47:10could be far more benign. After all, the end of June saw Kazakhstan land $12 billion in deals with

00:47:15the European Union, most of which revolved around the purchase of 50 Airbus passenger jets from the

00:47:20EU. So perhaps Europe isn't cajoling Takaev. Instead, Kazakhstan's leader may be having his head turned

00:47:26by all of the things that the West could provide to his nation that can't come from war-weary and

00:47:31heavily sanctioned Russia. Again, it's all speculative. But Putin will see the pattern emerging in these events,

00:47:36and he'll know that Russia is starting to lose influence in Kazakhstan. The nation that walked

00:47:41the tightrope seems about ready to jump off, and it's heading towards the West.

00:47:45GIS adds another wrench that can be thrown into the works. Kazakhstan is also increasingly looking

00:47:50toward China as a buyer for its oil. In fact, Kazakhstan only has two oil delivery routes that

00:47:56don't pass through Russia, one of which is via a pipeline that connects the country's Atasu province

00:48:01with Xinjiang in China. That pipeline carried 1.2 million tons of crude oil to China in 2024,

00:48:08showcasing the viability of Kazakhstan decoupling itself from Russia. More work would have to be

00:48:13done, of course. But China, which produces practically no oil of its own, would be more

00:48:18than happy to build the required infrastructure, both for the oil and a chance to expand its influence

00:48:23in Central Asia at the expense of Russia. More and more of the full picture emerges.

00:48:28And by now it's becoming clear that Putin has trapped himself in a dangerous game that

00:48:32he would never have had to play if he hadn't invaded Ukraine. Everything that is happening

00:48:36in Kazakhstan right now, from the growing Ukrainian, Western and Chinese influence to the country's

00:48:41leader having the guts to sit in front of Putin and humiliate him, is all a result of Putin's invasion

00:48:46lasting for nearly half a decade. Russia is now weaker than it was in 2022. Much weaker. Putin's

00:48:53actions have come home to roost in the form of an ally telling him that it's about time to declare

00:48:57peace because his war makes no sense. Tokayev has delivered the message, but will Putin listen?

00:49:03As shocked as he was by what happened in Omsk, Putin isn't likely to pursue peace just because

00:49:08Tokayev told him that it's time. Don't get us wrong, Putin should listen. However,

00:49:12as Croatia's Vechenyi List points out, by way of the Kyiv Post, Putin isn't the sort of reasonable

00:49:17person who will listen to allies telling him that it's time to stop. Accepting the current state of

00:49:22affairs would mean recognizing Ukraine's sovereignty, which would be tantamount to a

00:49:26Ukrainian rather than Russian victory. That is unacceptable to Putin. Putin won't stop until

00:49:31he is forced to do so, the outlet says. There is evidence of this from recent events. Putin refuses

00:49:37to accept any sort of ceasefire, even though it's clear that Russia has lost the initiative in Ukraine

00:49:42and is getting battered both on the battlefield and by Ukraine's long-range sanctions. As we speak,

00:49:48there are rumors that Ukraine and the US have created a new peace proposal. However, the Kremlin

00:49:52has refused to acknowledge that proposal and won't comment until it has something tangible in its

00:49:56hands. The odds are high that if the proposal doesn't include Ukraine's ceding territory,

00:50:01then Putin won't accept it. He can't. Russia's leader is trapped. He has to keep the fight going

00:50:06in Ukraine because anything less than the victory that he promised leaves him vulnerable to overthrow.

00:50:11But if he keeps fighting, more of what we've just seen Tokayev do will happen,

00:50:15as not only Kazakhstan but other Central Asian nations will invite more Western or Eastern influence.

00:50:20So what does Putin do? He either hurts himself or he hurts Russia. And when it comes down to it,

00:50:25there is nobody more important to Vladimir Putin than the man who stares back at him in the mirror,

00:50:30so he'll absorb one more ally disappearing. And in doing so, he'll damage Russia for years to come

00:50:35that he won't even live to see. This is Tokayev's true warning, that Putin won't listen. He should.

00:50:41What is happening with Kazakhstan is just a symptom of a Putin-shaped tumour that is causing Russia to

00:50:46rot right down to its core. Europe just made its biggest military move since the Cold War.

00:50:53A $50 billion move with implications far beyond the battlefields of Ukraine. A move that sent shock

00:50:59waves all the way to Moscow, to the desk of Vladimir Putin himself, and signals a dramatic long-term shift

00:51:05in Europe's long-term security strategy, as the continent seeks to strengthen its ability to fend

00:51:11off future aggression, while also reducing its long-standing reliance on America's unrivalled

00:51:16military might. For Russia, this isn't merely a bit of bad news. It's the country's worst nightmare

00:51:22come to life. But before we dig into the implications, let's explore exactly what happened.

00:51:27The 2026 NATO summit was held in Ankara, Turkey, on July 7-8. Numerous heads of state and government

00:51:35were in attendance, along with other officials, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Reuter,

00:51:41and the presidents and prime ministers of various NATO and non-NATO nations.

00:51:45One of the biggest names on the guest list was British Prime Minister Sakir Starmer, who served as PM

00:51:51since 2024, but announced his resignation in late June, meaning that the Ankara summit would be his final

00:51:57appearance at a major NATO meeting. And he clearly decided to go out with a bang. On July 8, Starmer

00:52:04revealed that the UK would take a leading role in a bold new European initiative to develop deep

00:52:09precision strike capabilities across Europe. In an announcement published on the British

00:52:14government website, the PM said, I'm determined to ensure the safety of the UK and our allies,

00:52:20and to do that, we must step up to deliver a stronger, more European NATO. The UK is already

00:52:26working with partners to develop exquisite capability that will give our armed forces the

00:52:30ability to defend and deter thousands of kilometers from the front line. But this UK-led initiative will

00:52:37allow us to step up our cooperation, bringing European allies together to ensure NATO remains

00:52:42safe and secure for years to come. The British government went on to note that Starmer would be

00:52:47convening the leaders of a dozen different European nations to discuss the details of the initiative

00:52:52before the summit concluded. In addition to the UK, the participating nations are Denmark, Estonia,

00:52:59Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Spain, Sweden, and Turkey.

00:53:05They released a joint statement shortly after Starmer's announcement, stating,

00:53:09We've committed to stepping up and strengthening the alliance's deterrence and defense. In particular,

00:53:15we recognize the need to increase our deep precision strike capabilities. We therefore recognize the

00:53:21need to proactively invest in these capabilities and accelerate procurement and delivery, including

00:53:26through multinational initiatives. We are collectively determined to invest $50.66 billion in DPS

00:53:33over the next 10 years. That's the headline. $50 billion dedicated entirely to deep precision strike

00:53:40capabilities over the course of the next decade. And that investment has already begun. The UK has

00:53:46already put £3 billion, just over $4 billion, into its own long-range fire programs. That includes

00:53:53£770 million, or $1 billion, for a joint stealth and hypersonic weapons program with Germany,

00:53:59which intends to create a brand-new ground-launch missile with a range in excess of 2,000 kilometers,

00:54:05or 1,250 miles. £1.4 billion, or $1.9 billion, is also going towards Stratus, a trilateral program

00:54:14involving Italy and France, aiming to create the successor to the Storm Shadow missile, which has been

00:54:19used to great effect by Ukraine in its war with Russia. These are just two examples. Given the total

00:54:24amount of funding for this program, combined with the fact that it's set to run for 10 years,

00:54:29it could involve the development of various additional missile systems, dramatically expanding

00:54:33Europe's overall arsenal, and significantly strengthening its deep strike and deterrence

00:54:38capabilities. It's easy to understand why Europe feels that now is the right time to make a move of

00:54:44this magnitude. The first and most obvious factor is the war in Ukraine. In the decades after the end

00:54:50of the Cold War, many European nations dramatically reduced their defense spending, like Germany and

00:54:55the United Kingdom. They did this because they believed that the days of large-scale conflict

00:55:00on European battlefields were over. They simply couldn't envision a world in which another war

00:55:05broke out so close to home. So they made what seemed like a logical decision to spend less on defense.

00:55:11After all, why waste money building tanks and paying the salaries of hundreds of thousands of soldiers,

00:55:16when war seemed so unlikely? Then 2022 happened. Russia invaded Ukraine, and those long-standing

00:55:23assumptions about everlasting peace across the European continent collapsed like a flimsy deck of cards.

00:55:29Europe realized it can no longer operate as though a major conventional war was impossible.

00:55:34This led to a surge in defense spending and the development of new security initiatives across the

00:55:39continent, with the likes of Poland and Germany playing leading roles. But Europe wasn't merely reacting to the

00:55:45war in Ukraine. It was closely observing it, watching how Ukraine, a country that was supposed to be

00:55:51so inferior to Russia and all major military metrics, was managing to defend itself so successfully,

00:55:56and learning valuable lessons in the process, especially about the value of long-range precision

00:56:01strikes. Kyiv's forces have used long-range drones and missiles to wreak havoc across the occupied

00:56:07territories and deep into Russia's regions, as well as destroying logistics nodes, severing supply lines,

00:56:13blowing up ammunition depots and striking the likes of command centers, military factories,

00:56:18airfields and oil refineries. This has proven to be one of Ukraine's most effective tactics in terms

00:56:24of turning the tide of the battle and dealing the maximum amount of damage to its enemy in the shortest

00:56:29amount of time. Should the war ever extend beyond the borders of Ukraine and into the likes of Poland or

00:56:35the Baltic states, the rest of Europe will need to follow Kyiv's example, making smart and efficient use of

00:56:41long-range precision weapons to hit Russia where it hurts the most. Another uncontestable factor

00:56:46behind Europe's decision to develop deep strike weapons relates to the United States. The US is by

00:56:52far the strongest military superpower on the planet, and even though there are 32 nations in NATO, America

00:56:58has long provided the majority of the alliance's overall strength. European countries have heavily

00:57:03depended on the US not just for protection and security guarantees, but for actual military equipment as well,

00:57:09especially when it comes to the kind of high-end military technologies that are indispensable in

00:57:14modern warfare, such as satellites, software and advanced fighter jets. Europe has for years had

00:57:20little choice but to buy American. This meant that, were war to ever break out that involved a NATO nation,

00:57:27alliance members wouldn't just be banking on the American army to protect them, but would also be using

00:57:32primarily US-made equipment and weapons in their own militaries. In many ways, it was an unhealthy and

00:57:37unsustainable dependency, and in recent years, Europe has been forced to reassess this dependency.

00:57:43Under President Donald Trump, the US has urged European NATO nations to commit more of their money

00:57:48to their respective militaries, with all members of the alliance agreeing to spend 5% of their GDP on

00:57:54defense and security by 2035. European leaders have also sought to diversify their investments,

00:58:01like Poland buying K2 tanks from South Korea, while strengthening their domestic defense

00:58:05industries and pursuing new projects with their neighbors. And this brings us back to the $50

00:58:10billion deep strike initiative, which is by far the biggest and best example so far of Europe

00:58:16collectively affirming its commitment to rely less on the US and start standing up for itself much

00:58:21more than before. It doesn't mean that Europe is severing ties with America, nor that it intends to

00:58:26stop investing in US military hardware. It's simply a question of becoming less dependent and better

00:58:32prepared to defend its interests. It's also a clear message to Moscow, as UK Foreign Secretary Yvette

00:58:38Cooper stated, with deep precision strike capability, the UK and our allies will be able to hit high-value

00:58:45military targets and the logistical engines that drive armies, deterring any aggressor and strengthening

00:58:50our mutual security. At Ankara, we're sending a clear message to President Putin. NATO is stronger,

00:58:57more European, and ready to defend our citizens against the long-term threat posed by him and the

00:59:02Russian state. Now, there have been long rumors that Putin has set his sights far beyond Ukraine

00:59:08and could be planning a much larger attack on other parts of Europe in the years to come.

00:59:13This announcement could be enough to put those plans on hold indefinitely.

00:59:17But before we explain why, this is why we make the military show, to explain how power really moves.

00:59:23So, if you're new here, hit subscribe so you don't miss what's happening next.

00:59:28Now, the entirety of the UK's announcement will have undoubtedly triggered alarm bells in the halls

00:59:33of the Kremlin. But the part that should really frighten Putin is the mention of new stealth and

00:59:38hypersonic weapons with a range of over 2,000 kilometers. Up to now, many of Europe's best missiles

00:59:44have struggled with the same issue – limited range. The storm shadow, for example, can hit targets up to

00:59:50550 kilometers, 342 miles away. The Taurus KEPD-350 boasts a similar maximum range of around 500

00:59:59kilometers or 310 miles. The MBDA Meteor, meanwhile, can travel just 200 kilometers or 120 miles from the

01:00:07point of launch. These are all advanced missiles with plenty of unique features and advantages,

01:00:12but their real-world applications are restricted by the fact that they can only go so far. In a hypothetical

01:00:18war with Russia, such weapons would have limited utility. It wouldn't be possible, for instance,

01:00:23for Europe to fire on logistical nodes and military infrastructure deep in Russia's regions with the

01:00:28likes of storm shadows and Taurus missiles alone. Once this new program begins to bear fruit, however,

01:00:35everything will change. With a hypersonic long-range missile at its disposal, Europe could see countless

01:00:40new targets come into range. Those targets could include the likes of Russian command centers,

01:00:45air bases, transport networks, military production facilities and specific strategic assets like

01:00:51bomber fleets and air defense systems as well. Since these are precision weapons with pinpoint

01:00:57accuracy and the most minimal margins of error, it would be feasible for Europe's NATO nations to

01:01:02launch their missiles from locations like Poland, Romania or the Baltic states towards targets all

01:01:08across western Russia, wiping enemy assets and infrastructure off the map in the blink of an eye.

01:01:13If we were to imagine a hypothetical Baltic invasion, for example, involving Russian forces crossing the

01:01:19border into Estonia or Latvia, Europe would have the weapons it needs to not merely to defend those

01:01:24locations but to disrupt Russia's logistics and punish Putin's aggression. It could target the supply

01:01:30routes, staging areas, ammo dumps and headquarters far beyond the front lines, making it increasingly

01:01:36difficult and costly for Russia to continue with the conflict. With rail hubs out of action,

01:01:40bridges destroyed and airfields on fire for example, the Kremlin's forces would find it much harder to

01:01:46move troops, weapons, ammunition, food and fuel to the front lines. This in turn would make it harder

01:01:52for the country's army to advance while making it easier for any invaded nations to defend themselves.

01:01:57Given how much of modern warfare is dependent on logistics, continuous strikes of this kind could

01:02:03eventually force Russia to give up on the war altogether and withdraw its forces. But it wouldn't

01:02:08necessarily need to get that far. Because potentially, the biggest role these new European missiles have

01:02:13to play isn't about bombing air bases or blowing up supply lines. It's about deterrence. Europe may not

01:02:20even need to launch a single one of its missiles. Simply possessing them could be enough to dissuade Russia

01:02:25from committing any acts of aggression against the NATO alliance or the European Union. For a long time,

01:02:31Putin has been in a position of strength. He spent years and trillions of rubles building one of the

01:02:36world's biggest armies. While European nations focused their funds elsewhere, Russia continued to

01:02:42pour massive amounts of money into tanks, missiles and drones. While Europe sold off its old tanks and

01:02:47armored vehicles to emerging nations, Russia stockpiled its Soviet-era assets in vast warehouses. While Europe's

01:02:53militaries grew weaker, Russia's grew stronger. Putin still had to contend with the threat of US action if he

01:03:00decided to attack NATO. But he knew that Europe alone would struggle to defend itself. This is

01:03:05partly why rumors and reports have swirled in recent years about the Kremlin leader plotting an attack

01:03:10on the Baltics or another European nation like Finland or Poland. The only real deterrent Europe could

01:03:16point to was America, since its own armies had become so fragmented and underfunded. Fortunately,

01:03:22that's starting to change. If the 12 nations involved in this new initiative can stick to their 10-year

01:03:27deadline or even accelerate their efforts to produce new missiles in the next five or six years,

01:03:33they will at last be able to defend their sovereignty and deter Russian aggression by themselves.

01:03:38Because if Putin knows that Europe has a vast cache of long-range missiles, ready to wipe out his

01:03:43logistics, headquarters and air defenses at any given moment, the prospect of invading Europe suddenly

01:03:48seems far less appealing. As UK Defense Secretary Dan Jarvis notes,

01:03:53We are building the weapons of the future to keep the UK and NATO secure for decades to come,

01:03:59backed by billions of pounds and working with our closest European allies. Our new suite of deep

01:04:04precision strike weapons will give our forces the ability to strike targets hundreds of kilometers

01:04:09away with great accuracy, strengthening NATO and deterring our adversaries. And this isn't just about

01:04:15precision strike weapons. Because Europe is doing much, much more than making some new missiles. It's

01:04:21taking numerous steps towards strengthening its defenses, making NATO more European and reducing

01:04:26its reliance on the United States. These initiatives fall under the broader banner of the European

01:04:32Commission's Readiness 2030 project. The ultimate goal of this project is for Europe to achieve both

01:04:38military readiness and independence by 2030. It's extremely ambitious and some experts have already

01:04:44warned that the 2030 deadline may come a little too soon for Europe to achieve actual autonomy. The Sparta 2

01:04:51.0

01:04:51report, for example, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, notes that it would require

01:04:56around half a trillion dollars, in addition to the money that Europe is already pouring into its defense

01:05:01projects, in order to close 10 critical gaps that exist in the continent's military capabilities today.

01:05:07Now, one of the most urgent gaps to address is in regard to command and control, since Europe doesn't

01:05:13have its own Palantir-like system which is so vital in modern military operations. Another gap is the

01:05:18continent's inability to produce autonomous systems at scale, not simply buying up thousands of drones,

01:05:24but being able to make millions of them each year. There are also several gaps related to air defense,

01:05:29since production, ammunition, and stocks in this category are seriously lacking all across Europe.

01:05:34And the continent also has work to do in terms of military cloud and combat AI, strategic transport,

01:05:40and electronic warfare. An excessive reliance on American Tomahawk and JASM missiles means that Europe

01:05:46also has a gap in its precision deep strike capabilities. That gap, however, is already

01:05:51being plugged by the new $50.66 billion initiative, and several of the other issues mentioned previously

01:05:57are being actively addressed as well. Several countries are working on new air defense systems,

01:06:03for example, while others are exploring new reconnaissance satellite technologies,

01:06:07surveillance systems, and command and control integration. The Sparta 2.0 authors also encouraged

01:06:13countries to form resilient leading coalitions tailored to their specific strengths. The likes

01:06:18of France, Poland, and the UK, for example, could take charge of strategic programs, long-range

01:06:24conventional capabilities, and discussions on nuclear policy, while the northern European nations

01:06:29and Baltic states would focus on maritime security and electronic warfare. And Germany could lead the way in

01:06:35terms of air defense and counter-drone technologies. The study also notes that, while it may seem as though

01:06:41Europe faces vast challenges, none of them are insurmountable, nor do they necessarily require

01:06:47years to solve. And the clearest proof of that can be seen in Ukraine. It began the war with Russia

01:06:52with a relatively weak military, a meager defense budget, and a defense industry that largely revolved

01:06:58around exporting goods to other nations, rather than strengthening itself. Fast forward a few years,

01:07:03and Ukraine is one of Europe's military superpowers. Its military is capable of going toe-to-toe with Russia,

01:07:09its defense industry has evolved and expanded enormously, and it's become a world leader in

01:07:15the field of drone warfare. And now it makes many of its own defenses and weapons systems,

01:07:19including long-range missiles like the Long Neptune and Flamingo. Ukraine even made its own

01:07:25Palantir-style cloud-based situational awareness and battlefield management system, Delta, in just 18

01:07:31months, which has since been heralded as one of the best systems of its kind outside the US. If one

01:07:37country

01:07:37with limited funding can do all of that in less than half a decade, there's no telling how much

01:07:42progress Europe as a whole could make by pooling its intellect, capital, and resources, taking what

01:07:48it's learned from the war on Ukraine, and making the necessary changes to prevent the same thing

01:07:52happening again in the future. So, even though the new missile plan is estimated to take 10 years,

01:07:59we could see a very different Europe in half that time, as the continent continues its push towards

01:08:03stronger defense and deterrence. In short, if Putin truly does have plans for an attack on the Baltics

01:08:09or an invasion of Poland, whatever window of opportunity you may once have had is now

01:08:14inches away from slamming shut for good. It's no secret that there has been chaos in the upper

01:08:20echelons of Ukraine's military in recent weeks. Former Defense Minister Mikhailo Fedorov is gone,

01:08:28seemingly ousted after losing a political battle of wills with Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's

01:08:33armed forces Oleksandr Siersky. We should say former Commander-in-Chief, Siersky is gone too.

01:08:41The victim of backlash over the removal of the popular Fedorov. Putin will have watched all of

01:08:48this with a massive smile on his face, but that smile has been wiped clean off. Following the turmoil

01:08:54comes the turning one. Someone legendary has just taken command of Ukraine's army. He is a legend in

01:09:01battle, Russia's worst nightmare, and he has arrived to lead Ukraine in the breaking of the Russian war

01:09:06machine. Putin should be very worried. We are going to explain why. On July 24th, it was all made

01:09:12official. The new Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Mikhailo Drapachi, was presented to the

01:09:18world. He spoke of the challenge that lies ahead, not just for him but for all of Ukraine,

01:09:23as it works to repel Putin's invasion, which is now deep into its fifth year. Drapachi called for

01:09:29unity across all aspects of the military and declared that he would work for results rather

01:09:34than politics. Drapachi also listed four priorities, which include building up Ukraine's air defenses,

01:09:40increasing the country's lethality against Russia, developing and scaling the unmanned component of

01:09:46Ukraine's armed forces, and cutting through all unnecessary bureaucracy. That all sounds very

01:09:52Fedorov-like to us. And as we'll discuss soon, that may mean Ukraine's ousted defense minister

01:09:57could have a path back to his previous position. But for now, this is about Drapachi.

01:10:03We told you that he is a nightmare for Russia, and to understand why, we take you to the southeastern

01:10:07city of Mariupol. In May 2014, pro-Russian separatists had built a barricade to prevent Ukraine's

01:10:15army from regaining control over the city. That barricade failed. The reason was that an armored

01:10:20vehicle smashed through it at a crazy speed, punching a hole through what the separatists had

01:10:25built. That hole allowed another armored vehicle to follow, and the soldiers inside went on to save

01:10:31the lives of police officers whom the separatists were holding hostage in Mariupol's interior ministry

01:10:36building. One of the men driving in that vehicle that smashed through the barricade

01:10:40was Mikhailo Drapachi. In one incident, Drapachi became a hero. The video of his exploits spread

01:10:46all over social media, as the young soldier received a claim for somehow leading his unit

01:10:51from a hopeless situation into a victorious one. Of course, one viral act of heroism doesn't amount

01:10:57to a qualification for Ukraine's commander-in-chief. However, what Drapachi's exploits in 2014 showed

01:11:03Ukraine was that he is a man who takes situations by the scruff of the neck. Uninterested in holding back,

01:11:10he fights to win. Ukraine needs that right now, and its soldiers are delighted at the recent

01:11:15appointment. There's no better person for this position nowadays in Ukraine, one soldier told the

01:11:20BBC, hinting that Drapachi is a lot more than one video of him smashing a barricade with an armored

01:11:25vehicle. Another unnamed officer who spoke about the new commander-in-chief back in June 2025 said,

01:11:31Drapachi is a relatively young general. He is gifted. He was always sent to places where the situation

01:11:36was extremely difficult. Yet another soldier, Artem Karyakin, tells the Kyiv Independent,

01:11:41Drapachi commands tremendous respect within the Ukrainian military, something that is extremely

01:11:46difficult to earn. There is clearly a lot more to this young general than one video suggests,

01:11:51but perhaps the best way to gauge how important this new appointment will be for Ukraine comes from

01:11:56the reactions of the Russian occupiers once they heard the news. Russians are raging. They know that

01:12:02Drapachi is a very dangerous man. A July 22 report in the Kyiv Independent,

01:12:07ahead of the general's official unveiling, highlights that Russian military blogger Kirill Fedorov,

01:12:13who has 500,000 subscribers to his Telegram channel, was quick to sound the alarm as he shared the now

01:12:19famous video of the armored vehicle. He hates us and he hates us consistently. That means he will try to

01:12:25kill us regardless of any moral constraints, Fedorov opined, suggesting that Drapachi is a man who will

01:12:32show no mercy to Russian occupiers. Others have pointed to Drapachi's age as a concern. He is 43

01:12:38years old and has risen through the ranks of Ukraine's military, starting the war as a battalion command,

01:12:43another blogger pointed out, noting that this is very bad news for Russia. It means that Drapachi

01:12:49has seen the front lines, knows what is needed and, unlike his predecessor, is schooled in the modern way

01:12:55of war rather than Soviet-era combat. The general consensus seems to be that Drapachi will loosen

01:13:00the constraints on Ukraine's armed forces, especially its unmanned units, and if that happens

01:13:05it would be disastrous for Russian troops on the ground. At least that's what the Russians are saying.

01:13:11But behind all of the bluster, the viral videos and the Russian fear, the questions have to be asked.

01:13:16Who is Mikhailo Drapachi really? And is he the man who can lead Ukraine to victory over Russia?

01:13:22Starting with the first of those questions, the one thing we know for sure is that Drapachi is

01:13:26very different from his predecessor, Oleksandr Siersky. Though only separated by 17 years,

01:13:32these two men come from very different schools of military thought. Siersky has been important to

01:13:37Ukraine. The four-star general's tactics were key during Russia's attempt to overrun Kyiv in early

01:13:422022, as it was due to him that Ukraine was able to outmaneuver the mechanized columns that Putin

01:13:48sent towards the city. Siersky is also credited as being the mind behind Ukraine's counter-invasion

01:13:53of Kursk in August 2024, which put Putin in a terrible position by exposing Russia's supposed

01:13:59great protector as a man who would allow the first invasion onto Russian soil since World War II.

01:14:05However, Siersky also conducted war in an increasingly old-fashioned way.

01:14:10Scored in the 1980s at the Moscow Military Academy, and once thought to be one of Russia's upcoming top

01:14:16commanders before the Soviet Union collapsed, Siersky never quite escaped the Russian way

01:14:20of thinking about war. His own soldiers respected and feared him in equal measure,

01:14:25naming him the Butcher because of his seeming indifference to human losses.

01:14:29That attitude might fly in Russia, but in Ukraine, which has a far smaller population and faces an

01:14:35enemy that can outnumber it, a Butcher may not be the right person for the job.

01:14:39Ukraine has developed a new way of war over the last four and a half years.

01:14:43Many in the country's military believe that this means Siersky and his tactics have become outdated.

01:14:49By contrast, Drapatchi represents the new school of Ukrainian military thinking.

01:14:53Free from the Soviet shackles, he brings a combination of Western thought

01:14:57and Ukraine's own drone-heavy strategy. He is also far more than the man who commanded the vehicle

01:15:03that smashed through a barricade in Mariupol. The BBC reports that he returned to university in 2021

01:15:09for further strategic and operational training, being presented with a sword of honour as the

01:15:15university's top student upon his graduation. In the war with Russia, Drapatchi has led several

01:15:20operational groups, achieving success in Kherson and Dniprobetrovsk, where his groups have liberated

01:15:26several settlements, in addition to Kriviri, where he and his soldiers were able to push back Russian

01:15:31occupiers. In more recent years, Drapatchi has served as the commander of Ukraine's joint forces,

01:15:36and it's in this position where tensions between him and Siersky are rumoured to have arisen.

01:15:41Like Fedorov, Drapatchi wants Ukraine to fight a new kind of war that is somewhat alien to Siersky

01:15:46and his Soviet-trained approach. A war that Ukraine can actually win. Some point to Siersky as a man who

01:15:52knows how to defend, but also as a man who lacks future vision. Even as Ukraine's drones score more

01:15:58kills than ever, Siersky still sticks to what he was taught. Lacking a vision for victory

01:16:03wasn't a bad thing in the early years of the war, when the goal seemed to be to defend long

01:16:07enough

01:16:07for Russia to decide that taking Ukraine was more trouble than it was worth. But it's 2026. Putin has

01:16:13long proven that he has no intention of stopping. No matter how much of Russia's military crumbles,

01:16:18Ukraine can no longer afford to sustain and survive. It has to win. The appointment of Drapatchi

01:16:24is in service of getting that win. None of this is to disparage Siersky for the vital role that he

01:16:29has

01:16:29played in getting Ukraine this far. And in his final remarks as Ukraine's commander-in-chief,

01:16:34Siersky was both diplomatic and forthright in his view of himself and the army he leaves behind.

01:16:39I'm handing over to my successor, an army that is not only holding the line,

01:16:43but is in a state of offense, with initiative, with structure, with people who know how to strike

01:16:48the enemy. And I sincerely hope that this offensive will continue. Everything needed for that is there,

01:16:53Siersky said before adding. I said this before, and I repeat it today. My job is war. Positions

01:16:59change, but this principle does not. In whatever status I may be, I will serve Ukraine until victory.

01:17:05The handover has happened, and Siersky appears to be willing to allow himself to fade into the

01:17:10background, allowing for a smooth transition. That's a huge positive for Drapatchi as he starts

01:17:15his new role. However, despite seeming qualified and having enough about him to cause fear in the Russian

01:17:20ranks, the question of how much of a difference Drapatchi can make has to be asked. His appointment

01:17:25caught everybody off guard, but what he will do for Ukraine's military is the real game-changer.

01:17:31Drapatchi has the potential to be the man who leads Ukraine in the breaking of Putin's war machine.

01:17:36But before we explain why, you are watching The Military Show. If you haven't subscribed to the

01:17:41channel yet, now is the perfect time to do it. And if you want to see our videos as soon

01:17:45as they are

01:17:45published, remember to enable notifications. There is one thing, above all others, that

01:17:52Drapatchi brings to Ukraine's military – hope. We see that in the words of the soldiers set to

01:17:57serve under him, who point out that Drapatchi is part of a new generation of officers who developed

01:18:01during the war. Former Defense Minister Mikhailo Fedorov also inspired similar hope. We see that in

01:18:07the outpouring of anger in Ukrainian streets upon his dismissal, as protests called out Ukrainian

01:18:12high command for seemingly trying to get rid of young officers who want to combat corruption and

01:18:17tackle the layers of bureaucracy that exist in Ukraine's military. Drapatchi brings with him the

01:18:22same promise of change that Fedorov wanted to deliver. He brings hope to Ukraine's military.

01:18:27Don't underestimate the power of hope, especially now when Ukraine's army, though effective,

01:18:32is struggling with various morale and manpower challenges. During the winter, Ukraine experienced

01:18:38one of its most challenging periods yet. A massive bombardment of its energy infrastructure left

01:18:43civilians shivering in the cold as heat went out. Many others lost access to power and water. At one

01:18:49point, 70% of Kyiv found itself without power, as temperatures plunged as low as minus 20 degrees

01:18:55Celsius. This is all by Russian design, terrorize Ukraine's people, and they will eventually grow so

01:19:01tired of the war that they will submit to Putin's whims. That's the approach, at least. Though Ukraine has done

01:19:07well to recover, it also has a manpower crisis that has emerged in large part because potential soldiers

01:19:12are terrified of dying on the front lines. In January, the Tactics Institute for Security and

01:19:18Counterterrorism reported that an estimated 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers were absent without leave,

01:19:24and a further 2 million citizens are wanted for evading mandatory military service.

01:19:29The patriotic mobilization that had served Ukraine for so long has started to wear thin.

01:19:34Going up against an enemy that has a population that is four times the size of Ukraine's could be a

01:19:39killer. Sierski's reputation as the butcher may have played a part. It may not be that Ukrainians

01:19:44don't want to fight, it's perhaps more that they don't want to be sent into assaults when they have

01:19:48seen that drones, ground robots and other technology can be much more effective. This is somewhat speculative,

01:19:54but it's notable that many of those who've worked with Drapatchi say that he takes a different

01:19:58approach. One of those soldiers, Colonel Alexander Vadovichenko, tells Pravda,

01:20:02Drapatchi never set pointless tasks. When he listened to commander's reports while planning operations,

01:20:07he always looked for ways to get the job done with the fewest possible casualties.

01:20:11Therein lies the hope. If Drapatchi can deliver the same kind of approach across all of Ukraine's

01:20:16military, the hope is that he will achieve the same or better results than Sierski with a lower

01:20:21casualty camp. And if he can prove himself as a man who cares about the soldiers under his command,

01:20:26the hope is that he can also encourage those who may have once evaded their call-ups to join the

01:20:31military in fight. Still, all of this is easier said than done. Hope alone doesn't win a war.

01:20:37What Drapatchi needs to do now is deliver on the promises that he made when he was unveiled as

01:20:41Ukraine's new commander-in-chief. He has near universal support from the people and the army.

01:20:47He is also noted as a critic of Soviet-style thinking,

01:20:50being an early adapter of the drone warfare that has served Ukraine so well in the defense against

01:20:54Russia. As the Guardian points out, Drapatchi represents a break, not only from Soviet-style

01:21:00tactics but also the Soviet-style command structures that still pervade Ukraine's military. That's where

01:21:06his focus will likely lie in the coming months, dismantling those old structures and replacing them

01:21:11with newer ones in which junior officers are given responsibility and expected to answer for

01:21:15their actions. A somewhat decentralizing of command, showcasing trust and a lack of micromanagement,

01:21:21may be what Drapatchi delivers to Ukraine's command structures. How long that change will take to

01:21:26arrive is yet to be seen. It certainly won't be immediate. Drapatchi is expected to improve

01:21:31battlefield management and the Ukrainian army's day-to-day functioning, but his wider challenge

01:21:35of altering command structures could take months or even years to solve. Still, Drapatchi is a man who

01:21:41seems willing to solve those challenges, and that's what really worries Russia. Despite Ukraine's drone

01:21:46advances, Russia could somewhat trust that Ukraine would fight in a way that suited its type of war.

01:21:52Siersky was a product of Moscow's military academies after all. That made him a man who could be

01:21:57predicted to a certain extent. Drapatchi isn't the same kind of leader. He is very different and he's

01:22:02not a man that Russia can easily get a bead on, which makes him a nightmare. In Drapatchi, Ukraine has

01:22:08somebody who is a proponent of the modern style of warfare that has allowed the country to achieve

01:22:13so many positive results, especially in 2026. Combine that with his real combat experience of

01:22:19having served on the front lines in Ukraine, Drapatchi could be the man to bring about the

01:22:23change informed by what Ukraine's soldiers really need – innovation and constant adaptability.

01:22:29Plus, if Drapatchi can smooth over the conflicts that have started to appear between Ukraine's army

01:22:34and its Ministry of Defense, that will be a massive bonus. And that, interestingly,

01:22:38brings us right back to the man who we mentioned at the start of the video – Mikhailo Fedorov.

01:22:43We mentioned earlier that Drapatchi and Fedorov's goals for the Ukrainian military seemed to align.

01:22:47The uproar over the loss of Fedorov also won't have escaped Drapatchi's attention,

01:22:52nor that of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. Could the appointment of Drapatchi pave the way for

01:22:57Fedorov to return to the role from which he was removed just a few weeks ago? It's possible.

01:23:03Ukraine still hasn't named a permanent defense minister in the wake of Fedorov's ousting.

01:23:07Former spy chief Yevheni Kamara currently holds the position,

01:23:11though in an interim capacity as Ukraine's parliament prepares to vote on a replacement.

01:23:16Maybe a replacement isn't needed. With Siersky gone, Fedorov's name may be back in the hat.

01:23:22Fedorov himself says that he has been offered other positions by Zelensky, but he refuses to take them,

01:23:27as he believes that there are only three positions where true change can be effected in Ukraine's army.

01:23:32Two of those positions, president and commander-in-chief, are filled.

01:23:36The other is the role that Fedorov served just a few weeks ago, defense minister. Fedorov has even

01:23:41refused the role of deputy prime minister, demonstrating his conviction to what he sees

01:23:46as an important cause. Drapatchi also seems to be a supporter of Fedorov.

01:23:50When Fedorov and Siersky began to clash earlier in July, Drapatchi came out in support of Fedorov,

01:23:56calling him a partner to the armed forces within the defense ministry, and a person who not only

01:24:01meets our needs but also pushed for changes in approach, faster decision-making, and support

01:24:06for those willing to take responsibility for those decisions. Fedorov seems to return the sentiment,

01:24:11having thrown his support behind Drapatchi during meetings with Zelensky, where Pravda reports he

01:24:16argued for Drapatchi to receive the job that he now has.

01:24:19We see a certain synergy, a great potential for Ukraine's military and Ministry of Defense to

01:24:24coordinate better than it ever has before. The barrier in place may be Zelensky himself.

01:24:30Would he be willing to swallow his pride and reinstate Fedorov?

01:24:34The ousting of Siersky suggests that he might, and of course, all of this is speculative.

01:24:39However, it wouldn't surprise us if we saw the return of Fedorov, hailing the beginning of a period

01:24:43of transformation for Ukraine that sees it finally loosen itself from the last of the shackles of

01:24:48its Soviet past. Whatever happens next, Drapatchi needs to work fast. September is quickly approaching,

01:24:54and though Ukraine has done an excellent job of repelling the spring and summer offensive that Russia

01:24:59launched in 2026, more is coming when the fall arrives. There is word of a September offensive

01:25:04to come. There are also rumors that the fall may be when Putin is finally forced to bite the bullet

01:25:09and force mobilization onto his people. Zelensky warned of that on July 24th,

01:25:15saying that Putin is likely to institute a broad wave of mobilization following Russian parliamentary

01:25:19elections in September. Putin is going to expand this war. He needs more Russians to take part in

01:25:25assaults. We have intelligence that Russia is preparing a significant mobilization this fall,

01:25:30Zelensky declared in his daily evening address. If that's the case, then the hero that Ukraine

01:25:35has just made its commander-in-chief needs to act fast. The happiness and hope that surround his

01:25:40appointment are finite. What Ukraine really needs are results, and Drapatchi has to deliver. The man

01:25:46who became a legend in battle must now establish himself as the nightmare that Ukraine's army hopes

01:25:51that he will be for Russia. If anybody has that ability, it seems to be Drapatchi.

01:25:56The next couple of months will be crucial. They could make or break either Ukraine or Russia.

01:26:01One region that will be an immediate focus for Ukraine's new commander-in-chief is Konstantinivka.

01:26:07Russia has claimed it took the key fortress belt city. It didn't, nowhere near. Instead, Ukraine

01:26:12lured Russian troops into a genius trap in the city, and it caused massive casualties by springing that trap.

01:26:19This is the type of operation that Drapatchi needs to build upon, and you can find out all about it

01:26:23by watching our video. And if you enjoyed this video, remember to subscribe to The Military Show

01:26:28and ring the notification bell to see more of our videos charting the changes inside Ukraine's military.

01:26:34And thank you, as always, for watching.

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