00:00India is a nuclear power, but in its rivalry with Pakistan, it has another powerful weapon,
00:05water.
00:06Pakistan, by the way also armed with nukes, gets most of its water from rivers that first
00:10flow through territories controlled by India, the Indus river system, which means India
00:15has its hands on the tap.
00:16And now it's threatening that not a single drop of water will flow into Pakistan.
00:20What's behind this?
00:21Imagine India and Pakistan as two siblings who've fallen out with each other.
00:25And I'm not talking about their cricket rivalry, they've fought multiple wars.
00:29However, those siblings are still living in the same house, the Indus basin.
00:34Pakistan on the ground floor, India on top.
00:37Here it controls the upper parts of the rivers.
00:39What makes things even more complicated?
00:41Part of that house is the disputed area of Kashmir, claimed by both states.
00:45It's a long story.
00:46Six rivers predominantly make up the Indus river system.
00:49They merge and flow through Pakistan into the Arabian Sea.
00:5390% of Pakistan's food is grown there, a lifeline in an arid region.
00:57And don't get me started on the effects of climate change.
01:00India depends on the Indus waters too, for hydropower, agriculture, spirituality.
01:05So far, competing water demands didn't end on the battlefield, thanks to the Indus
01:09waters treaty, signed by the two countries 65 years ago.
01:13Settled with the help of the World Bank, the two agreed on who's allowed to use which
01:16bathroom in their joint house.
01:18Simply put, India got control of the three eastern rivers, Pakistan of the three western
01:22ones.
01:22And they deliver more water, in total about 80%.
01:25But now, the water sharing treaty is under serious strain.
01:29India is now definitely a top five economy in the world.
01:32It has an impact on India's foreign policy posture as well, in that sense that there's
01:37much less willingness and appetite for compromise in terms of giving up India's water resources.
01:44Seeing the deal as largely favoring Pakistan, in May 2025, India raised the stakes.
01:49It unilaterally put the treaty in abeyance, meaning it effectively suspended it.
01:53In April, militants carried out a deadly attack on civilians in Pahelgom, in India administered
01:58Kashmir.
01:59India accused Pakistan of backing the attackers, repeating its long-standing allegations of
02:03cross-border terrorism.
02:04Pakistan denies that.
02:05What followed were drone strikes, missile attacks and harsh words.
02:09India has long-built dams and hydropower plants not only on the eastern, but also on the western
02:15rivers.
02:15That's legal if following regulations.
02:17Now that the treaty is on hold, Pakistan fears water could become a weapon, triggering droughts
02:22and floods.
02:23And India's latest plan to divert water from a western to an eastern river isn't exactly
02:27calming the waters.
02:28And Pakistan?
02:29It says any attempt to stop or divert its water supply would be considered an act of war.
02:34There has historically been kind of a mismatch between this rhetoric and the political reality
02:40that was much more grounded in cooperation than public discourse might suggest.
02:46India cannot simply turn off the tab and let Pakistan run dry.
02:49The infrastructure for that would take years to build.
02:52But by putting the treaty on hold, India is sending a loud message.
02:55Water isn't automatically a shared resource.
02:57It's becoming a geopolitical bargaining chip.
02:59It's a good one.
Comments