00:07Hello and welcome to 12 Minutes With. My guest today is Jacob Nagel, a former national security
00:14advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a senior fellow with the Foundation
00:19for Defense of Democracies. Jacob Nagel, thank you for being with us today. So you've been
00:25very critical of the Iran-US deal to seize hostilities. Can you explain us why?
00:31What I'm criticizing is that it's really giving Iran exactly what they want and need now. Not in
00:40the size they want, but they are getting, as I call, cash payment because the states are open for
00:48them to export for the next 60 days. Believe me, it will be much more, their oil. So billions of
00:57dollars will start spilling into Iran. Of course, they are not making from these billions food, water and
01:06good things for their people. They are going to rebuild their missile program and support the terror,
01:12especially Hezbollah, Hamas and others. I think they are not going to run to rebuild their nuclear
01:19program while Trump is around. If it was 18 months to a bomb before, and I'm talking a bomb on
01:25a missile,
01:26now it's about three years. I had to eat two years that Trump is there, so it's five years. Iran
01:32is feeling,
01:33even though they are on their knees, very weak. They got it from the U.S. and Israel on all
01:41fronts.
01:42They are saying, we are the winners. Why? They took the only chip they had, the Strait of Tormoz,
01:49they closed it, and Trump, you know, listening to his closed allies, J.D. Vance, the Vice President,
01:59Witkoff and Kushner, who is not listening to Exet and Rubio and others. He decided to go,
02:06and again, it's legitimate for him, but you have to say so. He decided to prefer now the American
02:12interest, the economy, you want to take down the price of oil, his allies in the Gulf, Saudis, Bahrain.
02:20Well, he had the midterm coming in November, sir, right?
02:23Exactly. He had the midterm coming in November. People are talking about his birthday,
02:30Mundial, Independence Day. Believe me, those are nonsense. What he had in mind is that the
02:36people in the U.S., they don't know where is Iran, where is Israel, what is enriched uranium. They just
02:41know how much they are paying for a gallon of oil when they go to the gas stations.
02:46So you think this deal is even worse than what was negotiated in 2015?
02:51You're calling it again a deal. It's not a deal.
02:53Okay, the deal to cease hostilities is how I described it.
02:56It's a memorandum of understanding.
02:58Okay, so this MOU is worse than what was signed in 2015.
03:02Again, it can cause to a final agreement, maybe there will be an agreement, I'm not sure,
03:09because the Iranians are the best negotiators in the world and they will drag it for two and a
03:13half years until Trump is leaving office. But if there will be a deal, it looks like
03:18it's going to be worse than the one that Obama did in 2015. And
03:23Ram criticized very much. Why? Because I don't know what will be in the nuclear side.
03:30But remember that it's 10 years almost later, the Iranians are ahead in the technology. We took
03:35them back in the fissile material, especially in the weaponization, because the most critical
03:41scientists, they are not there anymore.
03:44So was the swore worth it? If the MOU is worse, was the swore worth it?
03:49If what we had in 2015 was okay?
03:52No one, the deal of 2015 was horrible, not good, very bad. It was a direct path for a bomb
04:00to Iran.
04:01Okay.
04:01If, now I don't know what will happen in this memorandum of understanding, because there is
04:06nothing, nothing about nuclear inside this memorandum of understanding. It's only opening
04:12rumors, giving Iran money, and that's it. Now, they are saying inside what they are going to talk
04:18about. I don't know what will be the result. So, now, Israel is not bound by this MOU.
04:24Israel signed a separate deal with Lebanon, brokered by the US. It's a deal. It's a ceasefire.
04:32Are you confident it's going to work, knowing that Hezbollah said he would not abide by it?
04:36And some members of Netanyahu's government, namely far-right ministers, said, denounced the deal
04:42as null and void as well. So, what do you think is going to happen on the Lebanese front?
04:47Just put aside those in Israel that are denouncing from left and from right. I'm talking about
04:53the 80-90 percent of the Israeli population and Knesset members. This deal is good, and it's not
05:01excellent. Why? Why it's good? It says that Lebanon and Israel will decide about Lebanon and the
05:07sovereignty government of Lebanon. And it's written inside that Israel is not going to withdraw from
05:14Lebanon, from our positions there that are protecting our citizens, that we told them you can go back to
05:21your arms. But the size of this zone is under discussion, but yes, okay. Again, and it's something that
05:26Israel is saying. We gave them two pilot stations, area, very close to what we call the yellow line,
05:3310 kilometers from Israel to see if they can clean it from Hezbollah. Now, while Hezbollah is not going
05:41to give up all of their weapons, this deal is not going to happen.
05:45But you think it's going to work? It didn't work in 2024. No. I don't think that this deal will
05:51work in
05:52the place that the Lebanon sovereignty government will take out the weapons from Hezbollah. No way.
06:00Because they don't want to? Because they can't? No, because they can't. They very, very much want to. It's
06:06written inside the agreement that this agreement will come into force only after all the groups that
06:14are holding weapons inside Lebanon are going to give it up. Do you ask me if this Lebanon, this
06:20weak Lebanon government will be able to do it alone? No. The only way that Hezbollah will give up his
06:28weapons if their supporters, the IRGC, the Iran that are now getting money from the deal that we just,
06:34not the deal, the MU just talked before, they'll spill money for them. If there is no regime,
06:40crazy regime in Iran, the Hezbollah will give up. But then it's a catch-22. Then it's a catch-22
06:46because Iran has said that the deal would never work if still these do not cease against Lebanon.
06:53So then what? Then there is no possible good ending.
06:58You are totally right that there is a catch-22. So there is a catch-22 as an American from
07:04the
07:04US-Iran deal and the Lebanon-Israel deal. Now we are saying, still, US is our best ally. We like
07:12what they're doing. We work together with them. At the end, they will understand who is the Iranians,
07:17and they will go back to make sure that the work is finished. And now they decided to go on
07:23the
07:23economy way. It's okay, their legitimacy. We are not obeyed by this MU. We have the Lebanon. The
07:32most important thing about the Lebanon-Israel deal is that it's like putting a finger in the eyes of
07:38the Iranians, telling them, you did a deal with US. Okay, Lebanon is not part of the deal. In Lebanon,
07:44we are the one that's calling the shots. Now you ask me how it's going to finish. I don't know.
07:49I don't know. You called it very, very correctly. It's a catch-22. And as always in our area,
07:57in our region, it's very interesting to build. It's always something to do. Israel is strong.
08:05Israel is going to protect its citizens, especially in the north, but also in the south, like we did in
08:10Gaza, in Lebanon, and in Judea and Samaria and other places. In Iran, I hope the US will understand
08:17that the Iranians are not telling them the truth and will go back to what we did before.
08:22Okay. Very quickly, sir. There's been a bit of a tension between Netanyahu and President Trump
08:30recently. And J.D. Vance actually also took stage and explained that, you know, Israel should stay in
08:36its lane. Do you think the relationship between the US and Israel has been strained recently?
08:44Again, you're putting the right point. Israel and US are best allies. They are our best friends.
08:52They are supporting Israel in the UN Security Council. They are supporting us with many other things.
08:59But as I said before, President Trump now, for this point, I think he is doing a mistake,
09:05but it's legitimate from Israel, decided to prefer the American interest, meaning the economy,
09:14taking down the price of oil, being ready for the mid-term because his people told him,
09:19otherwise, you're going to lose house and senate. We like very much that the US will be with us.
09:25Sometimes they have their own interest. Okay. They'll come to their senses and decisions very
09:32soon. They know who is good and who is bad. No, I understand. I understand that Israel wants to be
09:37strong on its own. However, it's dependent on US aid, military aid. Well, partially. I mean,
09:44I know it has a very strong defense, you know, industry, but my point mostly is that how can it
09:50be a
09:50stable Middle East if the interests of the United States and Israel diverge so much right now?
09:56And again, you said before about the dependency. Israel is strong. Yes, we are getting an aid. I
10:00signed on the name of Israel, the last agreement of 38 billion, and I think there will be another one.
10:06But we are depending on the US mainly on the main platforms, F-15, F-16, F-35. We're not
10:13going to
10:14build them alone. But the US is sending those also to other countries. Are we going to do it with
10:18an American money, Israel money? It's totally different. I don't think the Americans are going
10:22to, you know, with all those things for us. All the other things, ammunition, tank shells, artillery,
10:31many main air to ground. We are doing it on our own. Israel is not depending in the United
10:37States. We are independent. Last question, if I may, we talked about a possible strained relation
10:42between Israel and the US. Now, I'd like to turn very briefly to the EU. I mean, you're aware,
10:48I guess, of the diplomatic spot that happened between the EU Foreign Policy Chief Kayakalas
10:55and Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sark. Are you worried about the future of EU-Israel relationship?
11:03I'm sorry, you're not going to like my answer. I was working very hard. When I was Israel National
11:08Security Advisor, every month I was taking 28 EU ambassadors in Israel and talking to them once a
11:15month. They didn't like it. I didn't like it. Unfortunately, we are asking the United States,
11:19the EU is not relevant. Now, about EU-Israel, at the end, I think that also the EU countries
11:26will come to their senses and will realize who are the good guys, who are the bad guys. See some
11:32of
11:32the countries inside Europe, and I don't want to say names. You go in the streets, there is terror
11:37war inside Europe. And there are some European countries that understood it and they took the
11:43law to their end. Some already lost the war against the immigrants. I think Europe is a big problem
11:50that they have to solve. And their problem is not Israel. Thank you, sir. Thank you for your time.
11:55Thank you very much.
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