00:02this is apropos well after a breakneck first year back in power the US
00:07president will be trying to sell voters on the economy during the state of the
00:11Union address in a few hours time the White House says Donald Trump would be
00:15laying out an ambitious agenda when he speaks to Congress and the American
00:19people the rest of the world meanwhile will be watching for hints about possible
00:24military action against Iran with more on what to expect here's Antonia Kerrigan
00:33with midterm elections just nine months away Donald Trump's State of the Union
00:39address will look to bolster popularity after a series of knocks on Friday the
00:44Supreme Court took the wind out of his protectionist policy by cancelling the
00:48reciprocal tariffs he put in place last year a decision he sees as a personal
00:53betrayal especially by conservative Supreme Court justices he himself
00:58nominated I'm ashamed of certain members of the court absolutely ashamed for not
01:04having the courage to do what's right for our country I think it's an
01:09embarrassment to their families the infamous reciprocal tariffs in place
01:13since last April disappeared on Monday night and have been replaced by a 10%
01:18rate perhaps soon to be 15 and the president needs congressional approval to
01:23renew even these in a hundred and fifty days time for which he will need to
01:28convince lawmakers to that his tariffs should be renewed and that his economic
01:33strategy is working but inflation remains high and his approval ratings have
01:38fallen on another key campaign promise reducing immigration the shooting dead of
01:44two US citizens by ice agents in Minneapolis shocked even his staunchest
01:49supporters also very ugly to watch someone shoot a US citizen especially a
01:55woman in the face the deaths of Rennie Nicole Good and Alex Preti led to mass
02:00protests which eventually forced ice to withdraw from Minnesota ending their
02:05immigration raids in the state unanswered questions about the
02:09president's past relationship with convicted sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein
02:13also continue to trouble Republican voters while his persistent threats of war
02:18with Iran are for some a departure from his America first policy well for more on
02:25what to expect we're joined by Larry Sabato founder and director of the
02:30University of Virginia Center for politics thanks so much Larry for being with
02:34us this evening all eyes will be on Donald Trump in just a few hours time he's
02:40warned that this is set to be a lengthy address saying there's lots to talk about
02:44what broadly speaking are you expecting well it will be lengthy his last State
02:50of the Union address set a record for length 99 minutes and I think this will
02:54probably be longer he has to focus on the economy because overwhelmingly it's the
03:00issue that people care about in all parties across the board and they're very
03:05unhappy with Donald Trump's performance his job approval generally is in the mid to
03:09upper 30s and on the economy it's in the low 30s he's lost independence almost
03:14completely he's got at best a quarter support among independents and they're a
03:19big group in the American electorate so if his staff can keep him focused on the
03:25script and he doesn't go off it too often he'll be talking about affordability
03:30and how his administration is going to make things cheaper for Americans that's
03:36why he was elected and in fact since he was elected not only have prices not gone
03:41down which he said was his goal they've gone up and what are you know his
03:46objectives heading in to this address as he's preparing are these speeches about
03:51broadening the appeal of a president's agenda or is it more about you know
03:56sending out a message for what that message will be in the run-up to the
04:00midterms well the midterm elections aren't until the fall and voting doesn't
04:06even begin in places that have early voting until late September so we have a
04:11long way to go before we get to the midterms I don't think Trump is focusing as
04:16much on that as he is on maintaining his base if his base cracks that MAGA base
04:22make America great again base if he loses any sizable part of that base then he's
04:27in the ultimate danger zone for presidents presidents really can't survive
04:32being in the 20s and he's in this low to mid 30s sometimes upper 30s right now so
04:38he has to be careful and we would be expecting him to point out all all the
04:42successes as he sees it over the past year how successful has the Trump
04:48administration been if we can talk about it objectively in terms of cutting
04:52inflation boosting jobs boosting manufacturing how far or near is the US
04:58from that golden age that Trump had been promising we're a long way from from the
05:05golden age now not everything is bad inflation has declined a little but
05:10remember even though it is declined it is two to three percent that's added on top
05:15the tremendous inflation over the past three and a half years so people were
05:20expecting unrealistically for prices to decline well no president can make that
05:25happen but Trump as you know always exaggerates and he said the prices would
05:30not only fall dramatically they fall on his first day in office eventually those
05:35sorts of promises trip you up now in foreign policy he's been more
05:39successful many abroad would disagree but I think he's had if you look at his
05:44objectives he's done more than people expected him to do and he's had more
05:50success as in Venezuela than people expected him to have he's also caused
05:54loads of problems example Greenland and how do you think the Democrats are
06:00going to be preparing for their response to Trump's speech what are you are you
06:04expecting boycotts silent protests we know that some are bringing with them
06:09survivors of the job Jeffrey Epstein and they were speaking to the press a little
06:14earlier as well I believe that's correct you have every member of Congress can
06:21bring at least one guest and they can transfer the guest passes to members that
06:26they want to put in front of the American people so you'll have a lot of
06:30visitors carrying forth various messages and the Epstein files I think are right at
06:35the top along with the economy people are going to be there who are going to
06:39explain to people that they're having to choose between buying food and paying
06:43rent and most people need to do both so you'll have a lot of that you'll have an
06:48official Democratic response from newly elected Virginia governor Abigail
06:52Spanberger but most of the attention as always will be on the
06:57president the president has a great stage you have hundreds of people many of
07:02them applauding wildly at the end of every single sentence and and the
07:06response from the opposition party is tame by comparison well regardless of the
07:12response that he might receive when he's in the chamber how politically
07:15fraught a moment do you think this is for Donald Trump coming as it does when
07:19he's getting these very low approval ratings days after the Supreme Court ruling and in the
07:25aftermath and the ongoing fallout of the release of those Jeffrey Epstein files
07:30he's in a very difficult position and you know he's very stubborn he's very
07:35stubborn he will not change positions no matter what the facts are or what data is
07:41presented to him tariffs is I think the prime example right now he doesn't care
07:46that virtually all economists say tariffs have been a disaster in all kinds of
07:51ways for the world as well as for the United States he's determined to find
07:55ways to continue them and to raise them whenever he can so I don't think there's
08:01going to be much change there may be a change in rhetoric but there won't be
08:05much of a change in policy and is he coming under a lot of pressure do you think
08:09from within his own party do you see you know evidence Republicans starting to
08:13push back in an effort to perhaps start to distance themselves politically from some of
08:19the more unpopular elements of Donald Trump's agenda they ought to be doing
08:24that and their own analysts tell them privately you need to put some distance
08:28between yourself and Donald Trump but they're afraid of him because if he goes
08:34after any one of them he can defeat that person in all probability in a party
08:39primary where the turnout is low and where his base will turn out in large
08:43numbers so they're simply afraid to do it if they do it at all I think it will be
08:49closer to the actual general election when they will be past their primaries
08:53they'll have the nomination and they'll have to suffer some criticism from Trump
08:58which is never pleasant because he always hurls insults by the dozens day
09:03after day but they can survive that and in some districts it might even help them
09:08and how over the last year he's been in office now over a year how have attitudes and
09:13views of the president evolved since he returned to the White House are those more
09:18divisive policies having much of an impact on how people see him oh absolutely he
09:26was at his peak right in November 2024 when the election was held and he got for
09:33the first time a majority well close to a majority of the popular vote 49.9% and a
09:39sizable majority in the electoral college he was never more popular and he
09:44maintained that popularity through his inauguration in January of 2025 but he has lost a great deal
09:51of it and in fact on 10 top issues some in foreign policy some domestic policy he is now underwater
09:59in
10:00every single one except border security meaning Mexico Mexico's border with the United States that's the
10:07the only one where he he has zero it's it's not a positive rating it's not a negative rating the
10:13others
10:14he's underwater 12 to 20 to 25 points you never want to be in that territory in an election year
10:21and Larry in your view what are perhaps some of the better things that he's done he has done over
10:27the past
10:27year and water the worst well the better things I suppose you could say when he has focused in on
10:37specific economic problems he has been able to get through a Republican Congress specific solutions to
10:44those problems whether it's taking at least temporarily the tax off tips for restaurant workers and others
10:51or allowing no taxes on overtime work for those who need it these are aimed at his working class voters
11:01they're a big piece of the MAGA Trump voters so I think he's done well there in rewarding them
11:08but when you look at the whole tax picture he's actually benefited not just the top 1% but the
11:15top
11:15one-tenth of 1% it is just remarkable how many hundreds of billions of dollars they're receiving
11:24from tax reductions and and other emoluments that he's put together for them they're his primary
11:32supporters and they give him loads of money and he rewards them he's also done very well for himself
11:36and his family they have added billions billions with a B to their private wealth in the first year as
11:43president which is forbidden by our laws and constitution but Trump usually doesn't pay much
11:47attention to that well Larry we'll see how tonight plays out thanks so much for joining us with that
11:53analysis we will have more coverage of the speech as Donald Trump makes it over the in the course of
11:59the next few hours Larry Sabato founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics thank you
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