00:00Today I have with me Lieutenant General Syed Atta Hasnend. He is a very prominent commentator
00:18on national security issues especially when it comes to India-Pakistan relations. He is
00:23currently the Chancellor at the Central University of Kashmir and today we have connected with him
00:28to speak on a very important issue. It has become a renewed flashpoint between India and Pakistan
00:34General. This is something which has always remained a disputed a contested territory.
00:39Intelligence reports suggested that there is a military build-up around this region. Now this
00:44region is very strategically important because if Pakistan gains more control to this area it
00:49will become a launchpad for Pakistan to attack India not only militarily but also in terms of
00:54cross-border terrorism. How important do you think this region is both security wise and economically
01:01as well? First of all thank you for inviting me for your program. Yes you are absolutely correct
01:07in identifying the circular issue as a very important strategic issue for India's national security.
01:15Having said that there are two angles to it which you have yourself identified. First the economic
01:20angle any territory lost or even the territory which is supposedly which is under our control at the
01:28moment if we don't look after that territory there is a always the danger of the exclusive economic zone
01:37which is linked to that territory and the control of that territory going away from under our influence
01:43and our capability to defend it. That's an important thing because this is a huge area for fisheries
01:50for undersea minerals and for shipping in general. So this has its own economic connotations but more than
01:59that even more than that is the security aspect. You see this is a broken area when we say broken it means
02:06the terrain is very difficult. It is crisscrossed by all kinds of rivulets which keep course based upon
02:14the tight tidal patterns. It's an estuary basically and which has got a couple of channels which are coming in.
02:23Pakistan of course has extended its claim to a certain area the eastern part of that area to say that
02:30that entire area it belongs to it. While India follows the international principle of any disputed territory
02:37then it is especially waterways. It is always the mid course of the current that determines what the
02:44territorial division is. Pakistan does not believe that. So it seems that the geopolitical environment
02:54which is existing at the moment in the Indian subcontinent is the issue which has brought the
03:01Sur Creek problem into prominence at the moment. Pakistan has found a new found strategic importance
03:09in the international community based upon President Trump's sudden love for Pakistan so to say and
03:19whatever he has against India seems rather peeved about it and it seems that we will have to live with
03:24this during his presidency. I for one initially did perceive that this was a temporary aberration
03:30but it seems that we will have to live with it. Now with Pakistan having found such favor
03:36it seems that Pakistan is attempting to test the waters. It's not necessary that they may do anything
03:42particular here but just by carrying out certain overtures like building up your infrastructure or
03:48moving some troops into that area. They are testing our responses to see what is the possible way that
03:55India is going to respond and they're also looking for international backing and potentially a small
04:01action which may lead to the US back in Pakistan for it. So this is a kind of a testing of the waters of the
04:08strategic environment at the moment. Do you think that China also plays a very important role because we know
04:14that China supports Pakistan military wise and also infrastructure wise given the fact that how it is
04:21trying to expand the Belt and Road initiative. China can also try and push for the internationalization
04:27of this issue because India continues to have a firm stand that it needs to be a bilateral diplomatic talk
04:33and not something which needs to be internationalized. Do you think that China also plays a very important role here?
04:39Well China, in the current environment, our relations with China have improved definitely and China does realize
04:47that India is an important nation for it from an economic angle because the Chinese economy has
04:53downsized all of a sudden, the growth rates have come down and the United States is not a trustworthy
04:59element to work with. So India is one of the trusted, it's not trusted should I say, but one of those
05:06countries with whom China finds it easier to work at the moment, the mutuality of interest as such.
05:12So it's not as if China is looking to upset the apple cart in any way, but there are other ways of
05:18doing it as you yourself suggest that through Pakistan, through the proxy of Pakistan, keeping
05:24India under pressure. One of the ways is through the Kashmir issue, one of the other way is through the LA
05:30line of actual control in Ladakh and here the other extremity in Surkri. Now if you have both ends,
05:37Ladakh, Kargil, Siachen, Kashmir and Surkri all in ferment at any time, it means essentially your entire
05:46western front is on the brink, so to say. So it is yes, definitely to China's interest to keep our gaze,
05:54to keep our focus diverted towards the western front and not so much to the northern front,
05:59where we confront China at the moment. This is not necessary that it's going to lead to war tomorrow.
06:05These are the kind of issues which nations work up, play out, essentially to keep their adversaries
06:12under pressure, ensure that they do not have the funds to be able to spend on other diverse projects.
06:19For example, the Chinese would not be happy with India strengthening the Indian Navy, for example,
06:25because the maritime zone is the area where China's weakness is prevalent. So from that angle,
06:31definitely the Chinese have an interest and the last issue on this is the entire area of the north
06:38west Indian Ocean that is stretching from let's say the Gujarat coast and going right up to Bandar Abbas
06:47and connecting up all the way to the area around the Red Sea is a great area of interest for China,
06:56primarily because all its oil, all its energy resources flow from this area. The reason why
07:03China could achieve such a phenomenal rate of growth was because these were secure lines of energy
07:10which were coming through the Indian Ocean to them. They don't want this upset. Definitely,
07:15having greater influence on the exclusive economic zone around these areas will contribute to Chinese
07:22security too. Out of concern, just trying to understand from you, because you also just mentioned
07:27at the beginning of this interview that this area is, you know, consists of mud flats and it's not
07:34easy to have infrastructure there. How ready is India right now? Because in 2023, when India,
07:40you know, started to construct on this particular Maurya Bhat Island, Pakistan objected to it. How
07:46ready India is in terms of its reconnaissance capabilities, its infrastructure to be able to,
07:52you know, have better surveillance so that Pakistani fishermen or Pakistani boats or even Pakistani military
07:58does not infiltrate? Very good question. And, uh, I haven't bring an historical context to this.
08:06If you remember 1965, the war of 65 did not start from Punjab or Kashmir. It actually started from here
08:14in Bhuj right there and on the, on the, on the Bhuj coastline, uh, 1971. Again, later on, this was,
08:25this area was reasonably active. After Kargil, this is the area where, if you remember the Atlantic
08:32aircraft, which is the surveillance aircraft, maritime surveillance aircraft of the Pakistan Navy,
08:38was shot down by India with 16 people who died in that air crash. Uh, the aircraft fell on the
08:44Pakistani side and the Pakistanis obviously claimed that they had never penetrated Indian airspace.
08:50So this area has a history of tension. And, uh, we know that Pakistan, every time there is some major
08:57conflagration up north, always attempts to do something in this area, which is one of the reasons
09:03why India has been very, very circumspect, uh, about what's happening at the moment. Having said that,
09:10I have the fullest confidence that the Indian armed forces and jointly, not just the Indian army,
09:15but jointly the Navy, the army and the air force along with the BSF have got their act together,
09:20have always had a certain focus on this particular area. The presence of Mr. Rajnath Singh for the
09:28Sarah celebrations with the troops in Bhuj was a notional symbolic act to project and tell people
09:36across the border that we are ready. Our focus is very much in this area. Shastra Puja was performed
09:42there, if you remember. And, um, uh, quickly thereafter, immediately thereafter, the army
09:48chief has made a number of statements, the air force chief has made a number of statements,
09:52all this outlining primarily and focusing, projecting that India is in a state of readiness
09:59in terms of infrastructure, in terms of technology. India has upgraded itself very greatly in the last 10
10:06to 12 years. And, uh, today satellite surveillance over that particular area, uh, a number of reconnaissance
10:14flights, maritime reconnaissance flights, other reconnaissance flights keep flying over these
10:19areas. Drone surveillance is the order of the day at the moment. So I'm, I don't think we have
10:26anything to really worry about. Uh, the government once is concerned, once the intelligence agencies
10:32have got their focus on it, I don't think we really need to worry too much. What is the resolution to
10:38this dispute? Because after 2016, when Pathan court happened, uh, the talks, the diplomatic interaction
10:46between the two countries absolutely was a stalled. Uh, how soon? Because now we have a renewed tension
10:52after operation Sindhu. Do you think that these diplomatic talks can resume in the future?
10:58Uh, if you recall, Surkreek and Siachen were both termed as a low hanging fruit at one time, uh, by the
11:07Pakistanis and with the perception that these two could be resolved independent of the Kashmir issue,
11:14right? Uh, India to an extent also thought that we could resolve Surkreek, not Siachen. Siachen is
11:21connected to Jamun Kashmir, but Surkreek we went along and we were in turn in, in, in a, in a stage of
11:27negotiations at that time. But thereafter, the incorrigible kind of a approach and attitude that
11:34Pakistan has displayed, uh, in attempting to come to terms with India, uh, by peace with India,
11:42it seems that this issue now also has got related to the larger issues of all disputes with Pakistan.
11:49So I think talks and terrorism, as we say, cannot go together. This also has become a part of that issue
11:57and I don't foresee a resolution to it anytime in the future. The rise of nationalists forever in the
12:03country as it is will prevent any kind of a resolution, which is not in favor of India. So
12:08I don't think the political climate within India, and I don't think the, the geopolitical climate within
12:15the subcontinent, uh, permits any resolution at this time. Right. Just last question, uh, general,
12:20you've already spoken about it in brief, but I want to pose this question again to you. The, the timing
12:26of the Surkreek issue and how Pakistan has, you know, tried to ramp up its military infrastructure
12:33right after Operation Sindhu. Do you think it is all because of Trump's backing to Pakistan or
12:38Pakistan had this in mind earlier? Well, let me go a little beyond what you have just said. Uh,
12:44Pakistan's rising strategic confidence. Where does it come from? A couple of factors which you have to
12:52consider. When you look at the geopolitical angle, a lot of us are only focusing on the Trump factor,
12:59not realizing that there are many other connections. Also Turkey, the support from Turkey,
13:04uh, the transactional support which it is getting from Iran today, right? Uh, the pact it has just signed
13:12with Saudi Arabia, right? And of course the Chinese support is a universal support which continues
13:18around the clock, around the year, uh, all the time. So geopolitically, Pakistan seems to be on a
13:24diplomatic high at the moment. And that always contributes to an Asian strategic confidence.
13:29The second aspect is, uh, the internal security situation in Pakistan is not too good. As you see
13:35what is happening in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir at the moment, a lot of turbulence,
13:40and, uh, last two years in particular now seems to have come to a head at this time. And this can
13:45turn very, very dangerous for Pakistan. Khyber-Pakhtounkhoa, similarly, uh, the Tehrik-e-Taliban problem
13:52is very much prevalent. The Balochistan issue refuses to go away. So internally, there is a fair degree
13:59of turbulence. The last part is psychologically. Pakistan, the Pakistan army seems to be in a self-delusionary
14:07kind of a mode where it has told, uh, it seems to sell to the people, to the government and everything.
14:141965, Pakistan army did not lose the war. 6th of September is celebrated as victory day,
14:21right? Thereafter, this also claimed that 1971, it never lost the war because
14:27Bangladesh was a different story, but it was 1000 kilometers, 1000 miles away from the mainland Pakistan.
14:33And, um, it was completely isolated militarily. It had no resources while on the western front,
14:38see how well the Pakistan army performed. Now, these are the kind of stories. Pakistan is very
14:44good at narrative building and storytelling, and this is what it has been doing, uh, all along.
14:49It has always convinced the people that Pakistan will not lose tomorrow if they start a war.
14:56And the last issue here is, recall the Kargil. Recall other incidents. Everywhere, Pakistan has
15:03irrationally triggered a conflict, never knowing where to take it and where to conclude it. It has
15:10always ended up with egg on its face. When you keep putting all this into a crucible, you realize that
15:16the situation today is such that India should be prepared. An irrational act could take place very much
15:26to sell it to the public, the Pakistani public, to the Pakistani media and the deep state and the
15:31political community there, uh, divert attention from the internal security problems and gather the,
15:39or test out the waters of the international kind of support which it is gathering at the moment.
15:43So, it's a, it's a, it's an awkward kind of a situation and I think India is doing the right
15:48thing. By sending out the right messages, what we are doing at the moment when talking about
15:53Operation Sindhu 2.0 is something which we have not done in the past. That is narrative building.
15:59Yeah.
16:00Telling the other side, we are prepared. We are fully prepared. Try it and test us if you wish.
16:06Right. So, I think the bottom line is that Pakistan will continue to be a rogue nation
16:11on the offensive, but India will be strategically on the defensive side and continue to have a better
16:17surveillance and infrastructure in the South Creek region. Well, on that note, General, thank you so
16:21much for taking out the time and speaking with Asianate News. Uh, your perspective matters a lot
16:26and, uh, hope to connect with you soon.
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