00:00In tonight's forecast feed, we have a lot to talk about.
00:05We want to take a quick look at the latest with Melissa's steering influences for the longer term,
00:11as, again, after crossing Jamaica and Cuba, probably clipping the western end of Jamaica
00:16with a fierce Category 5 impact across the entire landmass, and then Cuba,
00:22it's going to get scooped up by some upper-level winds,
00:24and it may still potentially directly impact the Canadian Maritimes,
00:28but we want to also bring it closer to home for many of us here in the U.S.
00:31with our forecast feed looking at two storms along the coast this week,
00:35one moving offshore, another one's going to come in through the interior, both with significant impact.
00:40So as we take a look at the current setup here through this evening and tonight,
00:43we're saying goodbye to the one storm that's now moving out to sea,
00:46and now the center of low pressure is making pretty good progress.
00:49So this is storm system number one, but there's another one behind it,
00:52and before we get too far down the line, you can see this dip in the jet stream here
00:57It's a small one, and it's beginning, that's the one following the coastal storm.
01:03This is the main one driving it.
01:05The surface low is just east of it.
01:07That is an influence in driving the offshore steering influences,
01:13and as low pressure begins to fall, pressure begins to deepen off the east coast of the U.S.
01:19with this trough.
01:20And another one following, we're going to see a little bit more of a vacuum drawing our storm, Melissa northward.
01:28So you can see this trough is just broad enough.
01:32The initial jet stream dip is going to be followed by a more pronounced one for our second storm of the week.
01:38But that is just far enough east, just broad enough that it's kind of creating this large vacuum
01:43with, again, a lot of steering flow out over the far west Atlantic.
01:48That is going to draw Melissa northward.
01:50Now, some of the mechanics and the details are up in the air still.
01:53Will this clip the Canadian Maritimes?
01:56Could it be absorbed by the second trough?
01:58Well, that may still happen.
02:00The GFS model would say no.
02:03With our second trough, this is the stronger one, negatively tilted northwest to southeast.
02:08It becomes a big problem for the east coast with soaking rain, and it impacts some of those
02:12Halloween plans up in New England.
02:14Strong onshore winds leading to problems.
02:16You'll notice that this one within the GFS model, it's still just far enough west that
02:22it never fully absorbs Melissa.
02:24There's Melissa going out to sea there with this bit of energy here, while the trough is still
02:29kind of anchored over the Canadian Maritimes and the New England states.
02:33That's the GFS.
02:34The European model has, again, a little bit more in the way of a separation between the
02:41second trough.
02:42I'm going to press pause on things Thursday night, Thursday evening.
02:47Here's Melissa pooling north.
02:49Here's that pretty amplified trough that's becoming more negatively tilted over the eastern
02:54U.S., but they're just separate enough that in this case, the European model, again,
03:00Melissa outruns the trough, and it never really gets absorbed by it until it's way, way up
03:06there somewhere closer to Greenland or Iceland.
03:08Now, if we look at the Canadian model, it's a little bit different looking at Melissa.
03:11It's just a little farther west, and this trough that moves through is just a little bit
03:17closer to Melissa.
03:19And as we go forward into Friday morning, again, less of a separation in the Canadian
03:25model.
03:26Our storm, Melissa, is closer to the trough and actually gets absorbed, and it slings some
03:31of Melissa's wind and rain into eastern Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes.
03:35So it won't be a direct U.S. impact, but again, this would be absorbed by that system, that
03:40east coast trough in the Canadian.
03:41Now, looking more specifically at the sequence of one storm exits, another enters the east
03:47coast, kind of dialing the conversation away from Melissa back into the eastern U.S., you
03:52can see that our first trough is moving offshore here.
03:56Here we are Tuesday afternoon.
03:58Here's the surface low is actually going to be way out this way, and that system moves
04:02out to sea.
04:03But a stronger trough really digs in here.
04:06Look at this surface low pressure system under this upper level pattern here.
04:10We're looking at about 20,000 feet up into the sky.
04:13But this is going to be kind of given a shot in the arm here by some jet stream energy kind
04:18of wrapping around from the plains and from ultimately its tracks across the Canadian Rockies.
04:25So that bit of jet stream energy wraps into the bottom of the storm, amplifies it, and
04:30then it takes on more of a negative tilt on Friday morning.
04:34So there's Thursday night to early Friday morning.
04:36We say negative tilt, we're talking about sloped from northwest to southeast.
04:42That's the way this is kind of shaped, egg-shaped if you will, but pointed toward the southeast.
04:47And these storms are stronger.
04:48They have more lift in them.
04:50There's more of a proclivity for that colder air to begin to spill out over the relatively
04:54warm water of the Atlantic.
04:56And that's going to drive a pretty intense little storm late this week.
05:00A couple of factors tied to this that we'll be tracking.
05:03One of them, as this storm begins to dip down through the southern plains into the Gulf Coast
05:10states, there's a narrow window of opportunity for severe weather.
05:14You can see our instability, those shaded colors, basically lifting the atmosphere.
05:18Warm air near the ground, colder air aloft.
05:21There's a period of time Tuesday afternoon into the evening where there's some instability
05:24with this one from east Texas into Louisiana.
05:27It's not terribly significant, but it's something to track.
05:30And we can show you our forecast that aligns with that.
05:33So that's why we're looking at some potential for severe thunderstorms with this.
05:36But also, one thing to watch, overall, day after day, storm one moves out to sea.
05:43This is the storm that's already moving offshore.
05:45Look at these isobars.
05:46We've got high pressure to the north.
05:47We've got low pressure to the south.
05:49There's your low.
05:50Here's your high.
05:51These are working in tandem with one another to drive a pretty strong onshore wind.
05:55So the onshore wind blows Tuesday and still Wednesday.
05:59And then Thursday, as that second storm ramps up, that prolongs the onshore wind up into
06:04the New England and northeastern states.
06:06So that becomes a bit of a strong onshore wind driver.
06:10Look at the hint of snow up there in the high elevations, by the way.
06:13So because of this, one of the more significant things that we're interested in, bridging the
06:16gap between one storm system and another, an increasing risk for coastal flooding along
06:22the east coast, those dunes have been compromised, and that is your forecast feed.
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