00:00Capitalism for thee, socialism for me.
00:04Is that what is happening in the United States today?
00:07Watch today's episode to find out.
00:09Hey everyone, it's Spencer Akimian and welcome back to another episode of What's Moving Your Money with Forbes.
00:16On today's episode, we are going to be covering the bailout of farmers in the United States due to the troubles of tariffs.
00:24Then we're going to be talking about the essential bailout of Argentina due to the economic struggles that they are having under Javier Millet.
00:33And finally, we're going to end off this episode talking about Bitcoin and are we seeing a pullback in liquidity and what that could possibly foretell for markets in the coming weeks.
00:45So sit back tight and I hope you guys enjoy.
00:47Let's get started.
01:18This was just you put it on a napkin.
01:20You did some basic math.
01:21It was inevitable.
01:22And now it's here.
01:24So I guess this is a benefit of watching this show.
01:26We can tell when bailouts are happening way before conventional wisdom catches up to us.
01:32But I want to ask you guys a question.
01:34Do you guys think that a bailout of farmers is fair?
01:39Right.
01:39This is not the first time that farmers have been bailed out.
01:43This exact same thing happened back in 2018 because of the exact same policy of tariffs.
01:50Tariffs are anti-growth and pro-inflation.
01:54That is a combination that kills farmers historically.
01:58Yet this was a policy that was popular in the 2024 election and ultimately caused that man that was pushing on those policies to win.
02:07So I want to know, do you guys think it is fair that farmers get another bailout here?
02:14Or maybe should they not be given a bailout so they see the consequences of these choices that most of the country keeps voting for?
02:23I want to know your thoughts, so please let me know in the comments what you think about that.
02:29Now another bailout story is Argentina is going to need a swap line from the United States.
02:35Now I want to make this real simple.
02:37A swap line is basically an agreement that we send the dollars over to Argentina for the time being.
02:45And the purpose of that is to stop the depreciation of their currency and to make sure they do not default on their dollar-denominated debt, right?
02:55But what ends up happening is that in theory this should stabilize the Argentinian economy from the natural market forces that are pushing Argentina's economy down.
03:05And eventually Argentina will be able, in theory, to pay us back for that loan that we handed out to them.
03:12Now something here that's really interesting to me is at the beginning of this administration, Argentina was championed as this libertarian, free market, you're on your own, pull yourself up by your bootstraps kind of economic story.
03:28And only six months later, their austerity has been so severe and so ineffective that they already need a bailout from the United States.
03:37And if you don't want to call it a bailout, fine.
03:40But I call it a bailout because in the event they do not get these dollars, they would go insolvent.
03:46So of course it's a bailout.
03:48It is stopping insolvency.
03:50That is to me the very definition of what a bailout is.
03:53So look, we look at these things.
03:56And again, I have the same questions as I had for the farmers.
03:59Is this something we should be intervening in, right?
04:03These are people that they themselves chose to go about this economic path.
04:09They themselves chose this way forward.
04:12Honestly, against some of the better advice of some of the most profound economists, finance people, and market participants in the world.
04:21And this is the result.
04:22Should they be bailed out for this?
04:25Or should they be not bailed out so that they actually see the consequences of their choices?
04:33You know, I analogize this of if you always, always bail your kid out when he or she does something silly growing up,
04:43how can you ever expect them to learn?
04:45One of the ways that humans learn over time is by feeling the pain of their own choices.
04:51Now, I'm not saying anyone should start.
04:53I'm not saying we should let this get out of control.
04:56But do they really already need a bailout from the United States this quickly into Millet's term?
05:02I wonder and I want you guys to let me know as well.
05:05So to round out today's episode, we're going to be talking about Bitcoin
05:09and the price signals that Bitcoin is sending into the market right now.
05:14And ultimately, what this can mean for other asset classes, other bigger asset classes to be frank.
05:20Like this S&P 500, the gold market, the bond market, the commodity market, you name it.
05:26So look, Bitcoin has been in this kind of air pocket for the past couple of weeks
05:31where it has simply been going down relentlessly.
05:35There have been very few green days for Bitcoin in the last 10 days or so.
05:39And if you go back to 2021, November of 2021, it was Bitcoin that first warned us
05:46that the mega rally of 2021 was getting exhausted, that buyers were just no longer coming to the table.
05:54If you recall, there was a Friday night in November of 2021 where Bitcoin had fallen by 20%.
06:00And just a few short months later, we saw that exact same thing happen in the equity market
06:06also on a Monday in January.
06:09So I'm wondering, honestly, is this temporary sell-off in Bitcoin?
06:15Is it a sign of something bigger or is it a sign of we are just getting a regular sell-off
06:22in the crypto market and this too shall pass and we will be better in a few weeks from now?
06:28My personal opinion is that this rally, a cross-asset rally, has gone a little too far and a little too fast.
06:35And it is due for a correction.
06:38Now, correction can only mean 5%, 10%, 12%.
06:41It doesn't have to mean we have to fall 20%, 25% here.
06:44I actually do not think that is the base case.
06:46Personally, I think you only fall 20%, 25% and beyond when you get a brand new catalyst,
06:52a negative catalyst in the market.
06:54Liquidity is not a catalyst on its own.
06:57It is a symptom, but it isn't a catalyst.
07:00Nonetheless, I want to hear you and you guys' takes about what is happening here.
07:04And I can't wait to see you guys next week.
07:06Thank you, guys.
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