00:00Lots to talk about on the forecast feed this morning. I don't even know where to begin,
00:05but we are looking at a meteorological tug-of-war as we head into early next week.
00:11Let's talk about the players on the field. First of all, I want to take you to
00:15Umberto. Umberto, a hurricane, became a hurricane here this morning. Maximum staying wind 75
00:22miles per hour. It's going to move to the west-northwest over the coming days here.
00:27And with that, a troubling trend. This will be the third straight hurricane that becomes
00:32a major hurricane as we head toward the weekend. And this, one of the major players on the field
00:40for the possibility of a landfalling storm as we head into early next week. Now,
00:45this tropical wave that we're talking about today shouldn't be a surprise if you're listening to
00:51the AccuWeather Network all last week and on Friday. Take a listen.
00:55I do believe and we do believe there is a window that is opening up for a landfalling storm. If it
01:02would develop, the area of the watch is going to be in the Caribbean and the area to watch is going
01:06to be the Gulf. You track systems this time of the year. I don't care if no one else is. I'm telling
01:13you, this is a tropical wave we're going to watch. Don't expect anything with that. Nothing as we go
01:18through the rest of this weekend. Now, early next week, it enters the Eastern Caribbean. Is there
01:24anything left of it? Because it's going through a lot of wind shear and dry air. If there is,
01:29the one area that's ripe for development will be late next week in the Northwest Caribbean because
01:34of warm water and low wind shear. Now, I talked about the Northwest Caribbean, which is in here,
01:41right? This system we think is right in here. I missed it by about 100 miles or so seven days ago,
01:48but we knew this was the system of watch for the United States. Now, it's very disorganized right
01:53now and that's the problem. We don't know exactly where the center of circulation is. We think it's
01:58in here, but if it's a little farther south and a little farther to the west, the farther this becomes,
02:05the more problematic this becomes for Florida along the east coast as well. But again, we think it's
02:11going to be right in here between Cuba and Hispaniola. All right, given that location,
02:19I want to start with history. Those that follow me on X know that I am a history buff. And what do I
02:26mean by that? Let's take a look at this graphic. I love this graphic. Now, this system isn't a storm
02:30yet, but if it were and it was located right in here, what does history say? History gives you three
02:38tracks into the Gulf. That's one, two, into the Carolinas, or three, out to sea. Right now, right
02:49now, unless this is farther west, we don't believe this is going to be into the Gulf of Mexico. So
02:55history tells us these are the tracks. That's a starting point. All right, with that, we've been
03:01following this all day. Why are we all week? Why are we convinced that this is going to become a
03:08storm? Well, I want to show you the European model. And what we're going to look at is the
03:11center of the storm. We have warm water. We have plenty of moisture. What about wind shear? All
03:16right, this is the European model. Here is the system right here. Now, what is, this is this evening,
03:22what does the wind shear look like? We look at 40,000 feet. Very light wind shear in this area,
03:27you see? And then as we head in toward Sunday evening, here's the system right in here across the
03:33southern Bahamas. What does the wind shear look like? It's very light right in here. See, it's
03:38very light winds in this area. Right in here, you can see it with the light colors. The strong wind
03:43shear, darker color is well off to the north. And even as I get in the Sunday, low wind shear here
03:49in the Bahamas. Here's your wind shear way off to the north. That's why we think this is going to
03:54develop. All right, with that, okay, it's going to develop. Where is it going to move? Now, we use
03:59computer models to help us make decisions. They don't make the forecast. It's a tool to make a
04:05forecast, right? It's like a hammer in the nail, right? So, let me show you the different computer
04:11models here to give you an idea of what we're dealing with here as far as where this is going
04:16to go. Let's start off Monday morning. Monday morning. Now, this is the European model. You can
04:24see the area of low pressure. We're going to be focusing in on this area right here. So, I want you
04:29to focus on that. European takes it into South Carolina as a hurricane as we get in the Monday
04:37night. The American model, here it is. This takes it into the Carolinas. When? Monday night. The UK
04:46met. This British model. Uh-oh. Look at this. Out to sea, which would be a good thing. So, those are the
04:55possibilities. We also have other models we look at, including some tropical models here. I want to
05:01show you that just to give you an idea of what we're looking at for that. Here they are. What do
05:06they suggest? They show the same kind of thing toward the Carolinas, but some taking out the sea.
05:13Here's one lone one coming toward the east coast of Florida. So, primarily, these are suggesting that
05:19as well. The question is, here we are on Thursday. What's the answer? Well, I'm going to simplify it a
05:26little bit for you. There's a meteorological tug-of-war going on here, all right, between this
05:31upper low over the Appalachians and Umberto, because the combination of high pressure and low
05:38pressure would drive this toward the Carolinas if Umberto was not here, but it is. So, there's a tug-of-war
05:44going on, right? So, who wins the tug-of-war? The upper low or Umberto? Umberto would take it out
05:51to sea. The upper low would bring it toward the Carolinas, or there could be a mix of both,
05:56and we are worried that this could head toward the Carolinas and then stall. With that in mind,
06:03here are your talking points. Carolinas, you have to be ready to be prepared for a landfalling storm
06:09or hurricane, as that can occur Monday night into Wednesday. If this stalls, there will be
06:14life-threatening flooding in the Carolina coast and even in the mountains, and that's a possibility.
06:19Also, rough seas up and down the eastern seaboard. More questions than answers on the feed this morning.
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