00:00It's been pretty quiet in the Atlantic.
00:02Gabrielle was the warning shot, a major hurricane pulling away from Bermuda.
00:06And I do believe by this weekend, there is a high likelihood of two named storms in the general area here.
00:15Let me show you.
00:16And you know what I also like about the forecast feed?
00:18Not only do I get to show you some of the models I look like, but I control everything, even the camera.
00:24See?
00:24You don't see me?
00:25Well, you see me?
00:26You don't see me.
00:27You got to love that.
00:28All right, let's show you the two tropical waves we're tracking here.
00:31Same thing as yesterday.
00:33This is the first one.
00:34This is the second one.
00:36We put it in the motion.
00:37You can see everything moving.
00:38Now, I show you the water vapor loop because there's a lot of dry air and wind shear around both of these systems right now, the dry air denoted by the yellow shading.
00:47But I think in time, conditions are going to be improving for both of these areas.
00:52Now, what I want to show you now, and I did this for you on the feed yesterday, I want to show you some of the computer modeling here.
00:58The American model and the European model showing the different scenarios, and you can see how tricky this can be.
01:04They're tools to make the forecast.
01:06They don't make the forecast, but they help us make the forecast.
01:09Okay.
01:09This is the American model this evening.
01:11Here are the two waves, number one, number two.
01:14This is the European model.
01:15Same thing.
01:15And you can tell they're tropical waves because you're looking at energy here in the atmosphere.
01:20And where you see the yellow and orange shading, that's where the energy or upward motion is.
01:25There's the European model.
01:27Both have them.
01:28Okay.
01:28What happens?
01:29Let's jump ahead to Thursday.
01:31Here's what the modeling looks like here.
01:33This is the European, clearly showing two systems.
01:36Here's the first.
01:37Here's the second.
01:38At this point, both are weak.
01:40The American model, what does that show?
01:45Both weak.
01:46So they're similar.
01:47Let's go to Friday.
01:48All right.
01:49Here's the European model.
01:51Here's the first wave.
01:52You can see the yellow here.
01:53By this time, by this point, this looks like both of these will likely be tropical depressions if the European would verify.
01:59You see?
01:59Here's number two.
02:00Here's number one.
02:01You can see the dark red coloring showing you the waves.
02:04What does the American model do?
02:05It doesn't have either of them, really.
02:08Just very weak.
02:09And we go to Saturday.
02:11Here's the European model.
02:13One here.
02:14Here's both of them.
02:15So there they have both of them.
02:16Notice what the American model does.
02:18This is the European.
02:20Weakens both of them here.
02:22Kind of hard to find them.
02:23So what the American model suggests is that they're too close to each other.
02:27They compete.
02:28And neither of them really form.
02:29The European model says, uh-uh, we're going to have two storms.
02:33What do I believe?
02:34I have to tell you, the European model is the superior model.
02:39And I believe it has the right answer.
02:41And I want to show you why here.
02:43You know what?
02:43I think the dry air is going to be out of there.
02:45What is not going to be out of there is the wind shear for a little bit.
02:48I want to show you the wind shear.
02:50Let's assume the European is right.
02:51Let's go to Thursday.
02:52So here we go.
02:53Here's wave number one.
02:55Here's wave number two.
02:56What does the wind shear look like in both of these?
02:59Let's go to that.
03:00Here we go.
03:01Wind shear.
03:01Very little wind shear where the first wave is.
03:05You see them?
03:05First wave is in here.
03:07Near Hispaniola.
03:08No wind shear.
03:10The second wave, though, is in here.
03:14And there's a lot of wind shear here.
03:16Now that's Thursday.
03:17Let's go to Friday here.
03:19What does it look like?
03:20Friday.
03:21All right.
03:21Here's the first wave north of the Bahamas.
03:24You could see the yellow.
03:25And reds.
03:26You could see reds here with the second wave.
03:28What does the wind shear look like to me?
03:30Here, let's take a look.
03:31Now, where you see the dark colors, where you have wind shear.
03:33Where you see the no colors are blue, that's no wind shear.
03:36See, this first wave over, no wind shear.
03:39This is still being dogged by some wind shear here by Friday.
03:42By Sunday, though, both those waves, here they are.
03:47Let's go to Saturday.
03:48Here they go.
03:49Here's where we go.
03:50This one north of the Bahamas.
03:53This one north of the islands.
03:56What does the wind shear look like by this point?
03:58Well, it's starting to decrease.
03:59I still say this wave is better located with this.
04:03I still think there's wind shear for that second wave.
04:05So, a little summing up forecast here for those waves.
04:08I think both of these have enough to become a named tropical storm.
04:14I just think the weekend, the second wave, it takes some time.
04:17The first wave is the one to watch.
04:19You know why?
04:19Because I think that will be a tropical depression or storm by the weekend, and it's off the Florida coast.
04:24Does it come in toward the United States?
04:26It's not sure yet.
04:27It hasn't formed.
04:27I think it's more likely to stay offshore.
04:29But I think this is the one to watch.
04:31I think this does become a storm, and we have a moderate risk for that.
04:35The second wave does also become a storm.
04:38But I think this is going to wait until Saturday or Sunday.
04:42I think the first wave is the first named storm.
04:44This will be the second named storm later in the weekend.
04:47This, though, stays out the feed.
04:49So we have two storms, but only one we have to worry about for the United States.
04:54And that's the message in the feed.
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