00:00It's always a pleasure to have you on board because everything you bring us is incredibly relevant because you are there in the middle of the conflict.
00:07And you're from the Donbass, which is the area that we understand Vladimir Putin would like to take.
00:13Can you give us a sense of what people there would feel about that, please, Peter?
00:18Well, of course, you know, our compatriots who are living on the part of the Donbass that's still under Ukrainian control
00:26are seeing what's happening just across the border, apart from the fact that, of course, the Ukrainian language is being eradicated,
00:33you know, and people are being, you know, passed through so-called filtration camps, etc.
00:39And there's like a neo-Stalinism that has actually taken root in those areas.
00:44I mean, yes, maybe those people do not want to speak Ukrainian.
00:48They were predominantly Russian-speaking before and remain so.
00:51But let's look at even the economic situation in my hometown of Donetsk.
00:55Those people don't have any access to water.
00:59Water is the hardest commodity to find in Donetsk.
01:02So whatever this, you know, peace and prosperity that was promised to the area during the so-called referenda in 2014,
01:13you remember the fake referenda, you know, and the Russians, you know, promised prosperity to those people.
01:20I mean, let's see how it's played out.
01:21Russia does not really care about the people in any of these territories for all they care, for all Putin cares.
01:27This could be and is scorched earth in a lot of places that Russia has liberated, as they put it.
01:34And now what is being offered to Ukraine under the guise of a lasting peace agreement is to cede the territories that it still controls of the Donbass and Kherson and Zaporizhia.
01:47And that is a completely, of course, unworkable idea.
01:51Russia is going to use this only to take over those commanding heights, which are the cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk,
01:59which have been turned into veritable fortresses since 2014,
02:03and will be in a much greater, more advantageous position to continue attacking Ukraine from there, which we're pretty sure it will.
02:13You know, none of the agreements that have been signed between Putin and Ukraine since Ukraine's independence are worth the paper that they are written on.
02:23Indeed, it is. I mean, history, history shows this. It's not an opinion.
02:28It's fact. Various treaties and memoranda have been signed by Putin and they've been disrespected and broken.
02:36And so you're saying that the view from Ukrainian people in the streets, in the Donbass, in the places, you know,
02:43that basically whatever Russia says cannot be trusted, whatever Putin says cannot be trusted.
02:48Well, indeed, it cannot be trusted. It will not be trusted.
02:53And that's why we've been disheartened to see this, the quite literally red carpet being rolled out for Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
03:02And then the American president essentially retranslate, rebroadcast Vladimir Putin's wishes, you know.
03:09And as it was noted, and you saw this just now, the joint press conference, European leaders, starting with the German chancellor,
03:19reiterated the need for a peace, not for peace, but for a ceasefire.
03:24And Donald Trump has taken the Kremlin's line that he needs a lasting peace agreement.
03:28It sounds on the paper pretty good, right?
03:31Why have a temporary ceasefire instead of a long lasting eternal peace?
03:34But that is Russia's code for, you know, eradicating the root causes of the conflict in order to achieve that peace.
03:42And that means preconditions, preconditions that Markham, once again, having to state are nothing less than capitulatory to Ukraine.
03:51An army of symbolic 50 to 70,000 people, apparently.
03:55Of course, a hard no to NATO, the enshrinement of Russia as the country's official language,
04:05full control of foreign policy choices of Ukraine, and presidential elections,
04:12which probably will mean an oust of Zelensky and an enthronement of some figure pliable to Russia.
04:21So that is exactly what Vladimir Putin wants.
04:23And that's essentially achieving his, you know, aims with other means other than military,
04:31which, as you have seen, have taken a bit too long.
04:35Vladimir Putin is also tired of war.
04:38I can suspect that.
04:40But he will not finish it because he has not achieved his goals.
04:45And he continues saying it and his goals remain full control over Ukraine and its foreign policy choices,
04:53its politics, its economics, its very life.
04:56Which, of course, is not at all what the people of Ukraine want.
05:00When we first spoke, going back to February 2022, when the invasion was launched
05:06and you and I first conversed on this channel regarding the situation,
05:10we perhaps expected the worst to happen from your perspective.
05:14Russia to sweep across Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin intended to do, in just three days.
05:18That's what his prediction was.
05:20Now, here we are, more than three years down the line, and that hasn't happened.
05:24So, in a sense, Ukraine can look at this in a very positive way, saying,
05:27look, we're strong, we've not been moved, we've held our ground to a large extent.
05:33Are you disappointed that there are no concessions coming from Putin?
05:37Are you disappointed that when Donald Trump speaks, sometimes it sounds like he's just putting Putin's point of view?
05:43Those sound like rhetorical questions, Mark.
05:45Indeed, needless to say that that's the case.
05:47And what's been most disheartening for me, you know, I just had a...
05:51I took part in a panel on Al Arabiya, Saudi TV channel,
05:55and I went head-to-head with a supporter of Donald Trump, part of his mega movement,
06:02and I kind of gathered what the main kind of line of their reasoning is,
06:08and that is that, you know, America, it turns out,
06:11it's not just Zelensky who doesn't have cards, remember the rhetoric, right?
06:15But it's America, apparently, that doesn't have cards against Russia.
06:19Russia is ratcheted up its military production to high heavens,
06:23and America just can't catch up.
06:25It does not have the money, and it really considers China as the greatest threat.
06:29So their saying is that we need to wrap this up because Russia will eventually, you know, prevail.
06:35And once again, you know, we know the sorry state of the Russian economy.
06:40We know Russia is losing up to 1,000 on some days soldiers dead and wounded.
06:44But Putin, as the, you know, experienced KGB man, always puts on the airs in a great act.
06:51And, you know, if they have to, they can roll out inflatable ballistic missiles on their parade on Red Square just to sort of, you know, play it up.
07:00Why, I mean, America simply cannot play that game?
07:04Is that, you know, is that what's happening?
07:06So, you know, Putin has been able to convince Trump of all of these things.
07:09And now America is cowering, apparently, in front of Putin, and, you know, we have to wrap this up.
07:15And at the same time, denigrating the heroic example of the Ukrainian people,
07:20who for three and a half years, having taken on the world's greatest nuclear power,
07:24have been an example to all the world, what courage is, what the courage of your convention is.
07:30And, you know, it's most disheartening to see this kind of air of cynicism pervade the discourse lately.
07:36Volodymyr Zelensky has been treated very differently this time from what happened on February the 28th.
07:43It's worth pointing out, I think, to people who perhaps have forgotten that back in February 2022,
07:48a Russian hit squad was very close to the presidential palace in Kiev, setting out to assassinate Volodymyr Zelensky.
07:55So of all the leaders sat around discussing matters today, he is the one who's been very much on the sharp end.
08:02He is the president at war, and his opinion and his point of view perhaps the most relevant of all.
08:08However, in terms of the influence, the arms and the money, we turn to President Trump.
08:13Peter, how important is this trilateral meeting, if it happens?
08:18And should it be trilateral or, as Macron suggests, a four-way meeting with the EU, with Europe involved?
08:24Of course, I think Europe should be involved, because whatever the security guarantees are eventually provided,
08:31they will have to involve Europe, because America, if it is to continue supplying Ukraine with arms, will no longer pay for them.
08:38That's what J.D. Vance has said. That's what Donald Trump has said.
08:41Europe is expected to pay for these arms, and Europe can afford to pay and is willing to pay.
08:47It's been time and again reiterated, most recently by the German chancellor, who said Germany will allocate $500 million to pay for the next tranche of weaponry.
09:00It's only fair that Europe is involved.
09:02Donald Trump has said it's Europe's war, and in a way he's right.
09:05It is much more Europe's war than America's war, simply geographically.
09:09So by that token as well, it has to be part of the equation.
09:12Europe has hosted millions of Ukrainian refugees, and in case of, God forbid, Ukraine's failure,
09:18you're talking about many more millions of refugees spilling over European borders, most likely not American borders.
09:24It has to be.
09:25When it comes to the other players, it seems that the sides have boxed themselves in,
09:29even though Zelenskyy sounded a note of being amenable to that.
09:33Early on during the war, Ukraine passed the law whereby it is illegal to engage in negotiations with Putin.
09:39Whether it was wise or not, history will judge.
09:42But Putin himself, I think that's the sticking point.
09:44Putin has time and again declared that he views Zelenskyy as illegitimate.
09:49Zelenskyy is beneath his dignity.
09:52I would have a hard time believing that Vladimir Putin is ready for that meeting.
09:58So Putin's position, as always, as it's been consistently all along, is that he won't shift.
10:05He wants to take Ukraine.
10:06Simple as that.
10:07Donald Trump talks about ending the fighting, but without really confronting Vladimir Putin.
10:13And that's going to be, I think, Peter, the big problem, isn't it?
10:16Actually, someone standing up to Putin and telling him that he's wrong in that situation.
10:20Of course, if the leader of the free world, the world's most powerful person, just every time meets with Putin and winds up under some sort of hypnosis and starts rebroadcasting Vladimir Putin's lines,
10:34you just wonder what goes on in those limos, you know, where they travel without translators, etc.
10:40You just wonder, you know, as America, so the rest of the Western world, if there's still the idea of a Western world, you know.
10:49So I am, you know, at the same time, at the same time, I hold out hope that once again, there will be a turnaround.
10:54Donald Trump has been known to do that.
10:56Right.
10:56And his patience does run out, except that, you know, let's at least see America show some cards.
11:03You know, there is leverage.
11:04America has leverage.
11:06Has Donald Trump tried this leverage?
11:08Not so much.
11:09All these promises of sanctions and these deadlines, putative deadlines, two weeks here, another two weeks and nothing.
11:16Right.
11:17The very least that could have been and should have been done is to attach the idea of a ceasefire to any meeting with Putin as a precondition.
11:25That hasn't been done.
11:26I think lessons have to be learned.
11:29And America needs to get some backbone, you know, understanding that, you know, let's not fall prey to Putin's wiles.
11:39Peter Zalmayev, thank you for joining us as always, director of the Eurasian Democracy Initiative.
11:44It's always a pleasure to speak to you, Peter.
11:45Do stay safe and take care.
11:47And best wishes to you, your family, all your friends out there in Kyiv.
11:51Pleasure speaking to you, sir.
11:52Peter Zalmayev, thank you very much indeed.
