00:00Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris.
00:23Let's continue our discussion about the inaugural ASEAN GCC China Economic Summit,
00:30a new trilateral dialogue that could reshape the contours of international cooperation.
00:37Joining me now is Dr. Fa Kim Beng, who is a professor of ASEAN Studies at International Islamic University Malaysia.
00:46He's also visiting faculty of University of Malaysia's Asia-Europe Institute.
00:52Professor, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for joining me.
00:55What does this new grouping, this ASEAN GCC and China grouping,
01:02reflect to you about a new strategic realignment in the global economy?
01:10Is this an unusual trilateral configuration in your opinion?
01:15It's not unusual in the sense that since the re-election of President Donald Trump
01:23as the 47th American president, there has been the talk that globalisation is about to become all unhinged.
01:31As and when you have that noises behind the background,
01:37one also has to keep in mind that precisely because of globalisation,
01:41the world over the last 30 years has become regionalised in different forms
01:47and in different parts of the political geography.
01:50So two regional organisations that are relatively successful in managing the tensions,
01:56both in the Gulf, in the Middle East, and also in Southeast Asia,
02:00are obviously the Gulf Cooperation Council and Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN.
02:05As and when they actually come together is also because of the initiative
02:11that the ministers have taken way back in 2009.
02:15So the heads of states and the heads of government are finally converging
02:20and having a serious conversation on how they want to deal with power
02:27that they once assumed to be relatively stable, but now is a quirk
02:32in the whole geopolitical and geoeconomic equation.
02:37Now, in a very predictable manner, China has become the one country
02:43that they can also have a decent conversation with,
02:48precisely because China is that one country
02:51that has embraced and internalised the ethos and values of globalisation.
02:55I wanted to reference something, just to kind of follow up on what you just said.
03:01You wrote an opinion piece, a column that was quite interesting,
03:07in which you talked about this summit and you said you called it a historic summit
03:12because it institutionalises, and I'm going to quote here,
03:15institutionalises symmetry among three civilisation spheres,
03:19Maritime Southeast Asia, the Islamic Gulf and Confusion China.
03:23Talk to me a little bit about that alignment
03:26and what this emerging axis of cooperation reveals to you
03:32about a new emerging global order, as you mentioned earlier.
03:36Thank you very much for raising that.
03:38Obviously, I'm doing something right.
03:40Otherwise, the TV broadcasters will not be picking up on my articles.
03:45Now, within the context of what I wrote,
03:46there's a lot of truism to what I said
03:50because the Gulf Cooperation Council is comprised of six Arab countries
03:57which are Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman.
04:05To the degree that we can refer to these six countries as a snippet
04:11or as a very abbreviated version of the Islamic world,
04:18then we can say that this is actually an Islamic civilisation reaching out to the east.
04:24Now, when I refer to the east, I'm mainly referring to the combo of Southeast Asia
04:29which is ASEAN and also China.
04:32Now, that having been said, we also have to be quite aware of the fact
04:39that historically, the Silk Road is actually a historical two-way street
04:46between both the west and the east
04:49to the degree that the Arab and Islamic world has saw light at the end of the tunnel
04:56and wants to work more closely with the Far East
05:00and even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
05:02There is that confluence and also resurgence,
05:06revival of what their ancestors and our ancestors have been doing
05:10for thousands of years, leading to the personification of Silk Road.
05:16So, that's definitely a kind of historical element here
05:20but there is an unlevel playing field, if I may,
05:25with this trilateral arrangement.
05:29Who do you think benefits the most from this alignment?
05:35Who's the big winner here, if I may ask?
05:38Well, the big winner here is actually everyone
05:41at the risk of being cliché.
05:43The reason why I said that is because as and when you reach out
05:48and try to position your own region or even your respective countries
05:53in a better light within the context of what is going on
05:57in Washington, D.C. right now, which is a lot of furniture
06:01and moving parts all over, then obviously you are injecting
06:05a high degree of predictability and policy accountability.
06:08So, when you have that kind of sober and rational policy-driven dialogue,
06:17it helps that you will be one of the first beneficiary.
06:21But we also have to keep in mind that the lives of President Donald Trump
06:25all of a sudden also discovered the importance of Gulf Corporation Council
06:29and reached out to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Saudi United Arab Emirates.
06:35And his perception is that he has actually succeeded
06:40in getting the Grand Hall, verging on close to maybe $1 trillion worth
06:47of investment, although the precise figure has to be verified further
06:51because you are dealing with someone who has a tendency
06:54of playing around with large numbers.
06:56Right.
06:57Can I ask you about that?
06:59What do you make of Donald Trump's three-nation tour to the Gulf region?
07:04Do you think that reflects now the Gulf states are in sync
07:10with the U.S. and some of the region's biggest issues?
07:15Well, to a large extent, it also reflects what we are discussing right now,
07:21which is the likes of some countries going east.
07:25So, in this case, very ironically, you have the United States,
07:29the most powerful nation supposedly on the world, on the planet Earth,
07:37trying to reach out to the east in order to enlist them to invest in the United States
07:43in the form of more investment from their own sovereign funds.
07:47So, is this a strategic realignment?
07:50Again, it is, but then it is being calibrated in such a form that it is the west reaching
07:57out to the east for further financial investment and infusions of liquid funds.
08:05Okay.
08:05Well, Professor, Profah, I have to ask you, when you say that this is a win-win for everyone,
08:13the big player in this trilateral arrangement is China.
08:19It's an economic superpower we cannot deny.
08:22Do you think there is a risk of China becoming the primary agenda setter here?
08:29That, in fact, what this is doing is really kind of moving all of these regional economic blocks
08:34closer to a China-centric orbit?
08:39Well, if we are moving in the direction of a China-centric order or orbit,
08:46it's strictly because the United States has gifted China various political gifts that even the east itself,
08:56or perhaps China itself wasn't expecting, in terms of the policy gaps,
09:00in terms of banning students from going to their leading institutions of learning,
09:05and also imposing universal tariffs on friends and foals alike.
09:10When you resort to all that form of extremist measure, obviously someone is going to gain.
09:19And that someone is precisely the nation that knows how to hold itself in a very composed,
09:25calm and collected manner.
09:27And for the moment right now, that country seems to be China.
09:31Okay, well, what are you watching out for in the months ahead to see if this cooperation,
09:39because this is the inaugural economic summit,
09:44hopefully we'll see more cooperation come out of this,
09:46but what are you looking out for to see if it will live up to all the potential,
09:52all the hype that we're hearing about having this new axis of cooperation?
09:57If we were to refer to the first GCC and ASEAN summit way back in October 10 and 11 in 2023,
10:07we can actually see two distinct styles of diplomatic outcome and product.
10:13If we were reading the press release of Gulf Cooperation Council back then,
10:20the language can be rather verbose and long and lengthy.
10:23But if we were to focus on what ASEAN actually produced at that meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia,
10:31it's actually very pifty, very precise and very purposeful.
10:36Now, when you have the potential marriage of these two distinct styles of diplomacy,
10:42then obviously there is some kind of confluence and combustion
10:46that can actually lead to very empirically driven and policy-specific outcome.
10:51So we are looking for that sign that the diplomats, the leaders and the heads of states
10:57actually know how to drive and shepherd the process forward in spite of the hype that you hear.
11:05Well, very exciting times in a shifting global order.
11:10Dr. Fa, thank you so much for being on the show with me today.
11:13Dr. Fa Kim Beng there wrapping up this episode of Consider This.
11:17I'm Melissa Idris signing off in the evening.
11:19Thank you so much for watching and good night.
11:21Thank you so much for watching.
11:43.
11:43You
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