00:00Taiwan's defense ministry is currently conducting large-scale computer-based war games.
00:05It's the first part of the annual Hanguang military exercises, which simulate an all-out
00:09attack from China.
00:10The second part, consisting of live-fire drills, takes place in July.
00:14To learn more about the drills and how Taiwan is improving its defense strategy, I spoke
00:18to Dmitry Alperovitch.
00:20He's a geopolitical analyst based in Washington, D.C., and the author of World on the Brink.
00:26When we look at how far the annual Hanguang drills have come, what are you most happy
00:30to see in terms of the improvements to Taiwan's defense strategy?
00:34Well, the thing that I'm really pleased to see is the focus on coastal defense, the incorporation
00:40of the harpoon anti-ship missile drills, the incorporation of HIMARS that can target ships
00:45near shore.
00:47That is really, really important.
00:48Look, the Air Force is unlikely to play a big part in a realistic war with China.
00:53The reality is the runways and the maintenance facilities and the fuel facilities will likely
00:57be the first ones to be targeted.
01:00But you can absolutely target the ships that are trying to cross the strait, the landing
01:05aircraft that are trying to land on the beaches and port facilities.
01:09And that is really, really important to see.
01:11Beyond that, air defense.
01:12China has the world's largest missile and rocket arsenal.
01:15So air defense is going to be very stretched.
01:18So looking how it performs in those realistic scenarios is really important.
01:22And a big emphasis this year in Hong Kong is this concept of decentralization.
01:27How important is that in terms of a conflict?
01:29Look, most wars are not won by generals.
01:32They're won by colonels, majors that are making decisions every single minute of every single
01:38day on the battlefield.
01:39This is what happened in Ukraine.
01:41You had a lieutenant colonel that was defending the hostile airport just outside of Kiev that
01:46took initiative and decided to bomb the runways to prevent the Russian airborne from landing
01:51on those runways, from being able to reach Kiev, from being able to decapitate the government.
01:56Had that decision not been made by an individual officer who had no orders to do so, we would
02:01have potentially had a very different scenario, a very different outcome in Ukraine.
02:05So being able to delegate authority to those individual commanders, not have them wait
02:11for orders, look at an opportunity, look at a target and take decisions, whether to destroy
02:17critical infrastructure that the enemy might use or whether to destroy their own forces.
02:21Very, very important.
02:22Now, at the same time, you need to have clear rules of engagement to make sure that they
02:26don't trigger a conflict by firing first.
02:29So you need to strike the right balance there.
02:32And it looks like it's not just active soldiers that are participating in the drills, but
02:35also reservists.
02:37What role would you want them to play in an actual war?
02:40Well, I think for the most part, you want them to play a supporting role for China to
02:45know that if they actually manage to get a lodging established on one of the beachheads,
02:51that they're going to face a force beyond just 100,000 or so that are active duty, but
02:56potentially a million that are in reserves, maybe even more that could be conscripted
03:01as a threat level rises.
03:04So really, really important for them to know that this is an operation that would be the
03:09largest in the history of the planet.
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