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00:00Let's go to Canada. It's been two months since the will-he-won't-he
00:03moment in the Canadian politics. A big question about Justin Trudeau when he
00:08finally answered it and he announced he was stepping down for a decade in
00:12office on January the 6th. It followed months of speculation, low popularity
00:17ratings for him as well. Today he formally leaves office, a new Liberal
00:19leader, therefore Prime Minister, is sworn in. 140,000 party members voted on
00:24four candidates, the two front-runners being the former governor of the Bank of
00:28Canada and then the Bank of England after that, Mark Carney, and the former
00:32Deputy Prime Minister, long-time journalist and expert on Russia too,
00:35Chrystia Freeland. This is a key moment ahead of Canada's election, due sometime
00:40before October. It has to be called, it's likely to be called by one of the
00:44victors of the Liberal Party anytime soon and it comes in the middle of a
00:49trade row with the US, President Trump also talking repeatedly of Canada being
00:54the 51st state. Let's go to Montreal in Canada, let's talk to Daniel Beland, he's
01:01the political sociologist and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of
01:05Canada. Great to have you on the programme Daniel. Let's begin with the
01:09state the party finds itself in, to which a new leader is about to emerge. It's
01:14struggling in popularity, deeply unpopular Prime Minister back in January
01:17but then trade wars, Donald Trump rhetoric seems to be giving them a
01:21bounce, doesn't it? That's right, that's right. There was a huge gap in the polls
01:27between the Conservatives who were way ahead of the Liberals when the Prime
01:32Minister announced his resignation in early January and you know the
01:37Conservatives were way ahead of the Liberals for at least 18 months before
01:41that. But since then, as you mentioned, I think the return of Donald Trump to the
01:46White House, the trade war, all the talk about Canada being the 51st state, they
01:52have created a kind of patriotic, I would say, response to this in Canada and the
01:59Liberals have capitalized on that. Justin Trudeau's popularity has increased, he's
02:04still unpopular but less unpopular than he was when he announced his resignation
02:08and overall the Conservatives have found it hard to adjust to the Trump effect,
02:15the changing continental setting or divide, and they spent two years talking
02:24about the carbon tax and cost of living issues and now they have to focus on the
02:30threat that comes from the White House, from our southern
02:36border, the threat of tariffs and even of, you know, attack on our sovereignty. And
02:43so they are doing this shift right now but for some people it's a bit too little
02:51too late but, you know, it will be the theme of the next federal campaign, how to
02:56respond to Donald Trump and his attack on Canada. Well let's take a look at what
03:01you've just described. Let's see the polls that have shown who could be ruling the
03:04country in elections later this year. This is a CBC and Ritz poll. Look at this,
03:09we're kind of seeing the steadying of the Conservatives but the real drop in
03:14January. Look at the difference between the two and coming back in the last few
03:18weeks. Now of course hindsight is a beautiful thing, could have, would have,
03:21should have moment for Justin Trudeau. Maybe he wouldn't have resigned if the
03:25figures were showing this. But let's talk about the dominant issues for voters
03:30right now as you see it. Well I do think that the tariffs and Canada-US relations
03:39are really central to the national conversation right now. So I think that
03:44this will dominate the next federal campaign. Could be launched as early as
03:48this week or later but it will be certainly before now and the early fall
03:55and it's likely to be in the spring. So this is an obsession here in Canada and for
04:01good reason because it depends on the United States for our trade and also a
04:06national defence and now we are realising that the United States is not
04:10a reliable partner, at least under the has become an adversary and he's calling
04:16our prime minister a governor and and talking about making Canada a 51st state.
04:21So these are things that are deeply upsetting for many Canadians and and
04:25this sentiment is likely to be central to the next campaign. Well let's talk
04:30about that big question what we saw above the the Liberal be it man or woman
04:34Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland, the two main runners and riders of the four
04:39candidates. Let's start with Mark. Tell us about him. He was once called a
04:43rockstar banker in the British press wasn't he? Yes and it's a bit ironic to
04:48apply the label of rockstar to a central banker because these are technical figures who
04:53most people find quite boring and actually Mark Carney is a bit boring in
05:00a way but this is quite reassuring to some voters considering that the mess
05:06that we are in because of Donald Trump who is everything but boring and so you
05:12know things have been for Mark Carney have been relatively easy in this race.
05:18He's way ahead, he's very likely to win later today that is I think that you
05:25know the many liberals see him as a savior in a way to save their party from
05:32defeat because when Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in early January as you saw
05:38earlier with the polls they were almost certain to lose if
05:43elections had been held back then but now they have a fighting chance and Mark
05:48Carney by many liberals has their best hope to defeat the Conservatives and
05:54stay in power. Well let's take a look at the optics so it was I think the Daily
05:57Show a few weeks back that Mark Carney decided to sort of let out or tacitly at
06:03least that he was going to stand. Let's take a look at this this is Mark Carney
06:07on Trump's comments about Canada. We find you very attractive but we're not
06:16moving we're not not moving in with you it's it's not you it's us. Okay so no to
06:25the 51st stage very clear and this is Mark Carney on the on his opposition.
06:32Polly seems like a villain in a like Karate Kid movie like there's something
06:38very very off-putting. What is he like in person?
06:47Take your time. You're not you're not you're not far off.
06:54He is there's I'll say this yes there is a type of politician there's you have a
07:02few of them here in the United States I think we just stop it yeah they had a
07:06lot in and around Brexit yes and we have mr. Polly F in Canada type of
07:12politician who's you know tend to be lifelong politician really tend to
07:17worship the market they've never actually worked in the private sector
07:20right and they see opportunity in tragedy like you just had with these
07:27horrible fires correct and they see opportunity and tragedy to push an
07:30agenda that here's one they prepared earlier. I saw when Justin Trudeau's
07:36resigned there was a poll out suggesting about 24% of Canadians could actually
07:40recognize the face of Mark Carney and put it to a name. Have we seen a
07:46different side of him there and has that had an effect on the on the at least the
07:50Liberal voters selecting the new leader? Well I think that it's a matter for the
07:56Liberals finding someone who's not too closely associated to Justin Trudeau
08:00because Justin Trudeau remains deeply unpopular and Christia Freeland who you
08:05mentioned is probably his main opponent in this race was the cabinet minister
08:11and finance minister alongside Justin Trudeau for many years so Carney has the
08:15advantage of being a kind of a fresh face in Canadian politics he has actually
08:20zero political experience before running for leadership of the party which is
08:25rather unusual and so that's an advantage for him in a way because he
08:30says I'm not a carrier politician while his main opponent I mean the
08:34conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is a carrier politician. He qualified for his
08:38parliamentary pension at age 31 which is very young but at the same time not being
08:44a carrier politician is one thing but having zero electoral experience at any
08:49level of government and then trying to become Prime Minister of Canada and then
08:54leading your party during a federal election is another thing and it's I
08:58think it's a concern for the Liberals. You talk about Christia Freeland a very
09:03interesting background as well former international journalist based in the
09:05old Soviet Union she saw in the new Russia she was based in Kiev at a time
09:10as well she has a Ukrainian mother she speaks fluent Ukrainian she speaks five
09:14languages including as I say of French and Ukrainian too then got involved in
09:18politics she became as you say Finance Minister, Deputy Prime Minister her brief
09:23she was recently asked whether a journalist makes a good Prime Minister
09:28this is what she said. For me the part of my journalism that I feel equips me
09:37the most for this critical moment for Canada is having lived first in the
09:43Soviet Union and then in the post-Soviet Union in Ukraine and in Russia and having
09:51seen the collapse of the Soviet Union the rise of national democracy the way
09:59democracy became oligarchy and also seeing how the courage of regular people
10:05can win that's what we saw in Ukraine in 1991 that's what we're seeing in Ukraine
10:10today those experiences I do believe uniquely equip me to lead Canada and to
10:20fight for Canada in this existential moment. Daniel is she a popular figure?
10:27Well looking at polls not so much I think she has political experience as
10:32opposed to to Mark Carney they actually know each other very well they have both
10:39this elite background they both did their undergrad at Harvard and they both
10:43studied at Oxford you know she was a road scar and so forth and she has all
10:49this experience being a journalist working all over the world especially in
10:55the former Soviet Union and so and she as you said she speak many languages and
11:01she was foreign minister foreign affairs minister she was finance minister so
11:05government experience political experience life experience really
11:09outstanding at the same time as she has two main problems in this race leadership
11:14race the first one is that she was alongside Justin Trudeau for a very long
11:18time so she's not a new face in terms of Kenyan politics and the second problem
11:22is kind of the opposite is that her resignation in December triggered the
11:28events that led the Prime Minister to announce his resignation and for quite a
11:33few liberals her resignation in the way she resigned a very dramatic way and
11:38attack criticizing the Prime Minister is already in a resignation letter was seen
11:43as a betrayal for some of the some liberals and so that's the two issues
11:49here too close to Justin Trudeau or very close to Justin Trudeau for a long time
11:53and then the way she departed so I think that that has created some some issues
11:59for her in that campaign and she has received fewer endorsements way fewer
12:03endorsements from fellow MPs than Mark Carney has and I praise way less our
12:09Carney and she's not doing as well as him in polls so Mark Carney is the clear
12:14favorite tonight right let's talk about who right now as things stands according
12:20to polls would be Prime Minister in an election the conservative Pierre
12:22Poliev this is Pierre talking about Mark Carney of swiping across to each other
12:27in an almost two-hour interview with Jordan Peterson you know he is part of
12:33the Davos agenda he's a he's just every bit as radical as Trudeau the only
12:40difference is he's got a nice banker's haircut and suit and he wears navy blue
12:46socks rather than polka dot socks but beyond the the aesthetics he shares
12:52Trudeau's entire ideology and he and he represents the status quo what should we
12:58know about Pierre and what he's saying on Ukraine and on Donald Trump too well
13:03he's a so he's a carrier politician I think you can that there is strong
13:08support for for Ukraine regardless of the political party so it's not like
13:13saying the United States we have also a large Ukrainian minority and so there is
13:18I think Pierre Poliev is supporting Ukraine unlike Donald Trump right now
13:24look I think that he has a very different style from Mark Carney he's
13:28considered as a you know a so-called attack dog someone who's very harsh on
13:32his opponents one of the things he has used one of the lines of attack he has
13:37used against Mark Carney is that he's just like Justin so they like these you
13:42know and and saying that basically we pursue the same policies and he's just a
13:48different you know basically different face to a party that won't necessarily
13:53change that much but I do believe that Mark Carney will do things quite
13:56differently from doing some areas in terms of fiscal policy in terms of
14:01budgetary policy and so still I think that the the main asset that Pierre
14:11Poliev has is this tremendous political experience and the fact that he's
14:14faithfully if it's Mark Carney the opponent and he faces Mark Carney in
14:19election I think that he has the the advantage in terms of knowing how to
14:25debate with his adversaries but his problem I think is that ideologically or
14:30in terms of his rhetoric at least there are quite a few similarities with Donald
14:34Trump and the liberals are playing ads right now showing excerpts from speeches
14:38by Trump and Poliev back-to-back showing the similarities and the types of you
14:43know slogans that they use like Canada first instead of America first and think
14:47the country is broken and so forth and so these similarities and the rhetoric
14:53between Pierre Poliev and Donald Trump have been used by the the liberals I
15:00think quite effectively in some ads to say well you won't be able to take on
15:04Donald Trump because he sounds a lot like him and many of his supporters also
15:09like Trump and his policies. It is coming up to half past six Paris time in the
15:18evening I think it's coming up to 1.30 in the afternoon your time in Canada
15:22when will we know and if you can look into the future slightly when do you
15:27think the election will be? Yes so we will know this evening before probably
15:347 p.m. Eastern Time so that will be after around midnight your time Paris
15:44time. Look I think that once we have a new the liberals have a new leader there
15:52will be a transition of course Justin Trudeau needs to resign and then advise
15:58the governor-general to appoint Mark Carney as the Prime Minister and then
16:05whether we'll have elections very very soon it could be in a matter of days or
16:09if the liberals will wait until Parliament resumes later this month to
16:16have a Trump speech and then perhaps a confidence vote we don't know yet but we
16:22might have federal elections very soon here in this country and Mark and his
16:28untested electoral but the Trump effect is really helping the liberals and it's
16:33an issue for the Conservatives that they really need to tackle. Daniel great to talk to you
16:37you've given us a clear path towards where we could go next thank you for
16:41that Daniel Beland a political sociologist thank you stay with us here
16:45on Flats24 we'll be back in just a moment