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00:00:00All right now it is fully a football Friday as we get you ready for the NFL's
00:00:05Final Four. It is conference championship weekend in the National Football League
00:00:10postseason. Two games, four teams. Hoping for those two spots in New Orleans to
00:00:16play in Super Bowl 59. Of course still in the chase for a Lombardi trophy. The
00:00:23Eagles and the Commanders in the NFC title game. That is first up on Sunday
00:00:27afternoon in Philadelphia. And then the night cap on a Sunday night and two very
00:00:33familiar foes in a very familiar setting. That would be Arrowhead Stadium
00:00:38in Kansas City, Missouri between the Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills and DRS.
00:00:43Let's start with that AFC championship game. You see the numbers there. It's
00:00:48still a point and a half in favor of Casey at home. Still just 34 cents of
00:00:54distinction on the money line between these two teams. The changing number from
00:00:59our conversation about this game yesterday was a total slightly on a rise
00:01:04from 47 and a half now to 48 and a half. Here we are on the final day that we will
00:01:11discuss this during the week on the early line. Of course you'll be live on
00:01:15Sunday for Pro Football Today. What are your thoughts about the AFC
00:01:19championship game to end out this week? Yeah, they pretty much have stayed the
00:01:24same from the moment we knew that we were going to get the Kansas City Chiefs
00:01:27and the Buffalo Bills because you're watching the weather reports all week.
00:01:30They really haven't changed at all. 30 degrees a kickoff, high 20s by the time
00:01:34the game finishes. Precipitation never entered into the forecast and it's not
00:01:37there for Sunday. So it's like a pretty clean slate. Weather, excuse me, windy
00:01:41temperatures were never going to be there. Two to three miles an hour now
00:01:44sit at four miles an hour as the estimated number. So it's a pretty clean
00:01:47run all the way through. But we also talked about like, which game would you
00:01:50look at? And both of them have the chance to score points. But the gameplay,
00:01:55I should say, between Kansas City and Buffalo is so interesting to try to
00:01:58analyze because so many times I go through my head and say, just make
00:02:01Kansas City into an operational offense where they have to function every time
00:02:06they get the football. They have that luxury so many times this year. And the
00:02:09joke is I always bring out is Kansas City goes down, takes open a kickoff
00:02:12punches in a touchdown. It goes. We don't have to score for four more
00:02:14possessions. Oh, no, we're losing a football game. Let's go down and score
00:02:17and take the lead again. Those are the jokes we have. But I would love to see
00:02:20the pressure put on them by the Buffalo Bills early in that game to force
00:02:24Kansas City out of its shell, but also understand this, which we're going to
00:02:28get to history does matter. And let's understand this from a fan perspective.
00:02:32For me, I would like nothing more than to not have to talk about the Kansas
00:02:35City Chiefs for two more weeks as they line up to a Super Bowl because we do
00:02:38it every single year. The bills are a fun story. Josh Allen finally clearing
00:02:43that final hurdle to get to the Super Bowl and the Buffalo Bills fans, one of
00:02:47the more painstakingly passionate fan bases that have gotten kicked in the
00:02:50head more times than anybody else and haven't been to a Super Bowl since the
00:02:54early 19 nineties. But also understand this. We are handicappers here where you
00:02:58can cheer for one side and still bet the other side because also bet my stance
00:03:02hasn't changed. I will root for the Buffalo Bills in no way, shape or form.
00:03:07Am I betting the Buffalo Bills getting one and a half points at Arrowhead and
00:03:12an AFC championship game? Now, Ben, yes, they could win that game and I will
00:03:15root for them to do that. But my money will be nowhere near the Buffalo Bills
00:03:19in this game. And I think it's really fair. This is the Kansas City Chiefs who
00:03:25are playing in their seventh consecutive AFC title game, hosting six of those
00:03:30seven in the previous six AFC championship games, a victory in an
00:03:36appearance in a Super Bowl in those four Super Bowl berths, three Lombardi
00:03:41trophies, including two consecutive. Here is the history at stake for Mahomes
00:03:46and K. C. Come Sunday night, the R. S. Kansas City down the ninth team ever in
00:03:52the history of the NFL to win two consecutive Lombardi trophies. The prior
00:03:56eight, three of them only made a conference championship game the
00:04:01following season in that three peat chase. Nobody has ever even appeared in
00:04:07a third consecutive Super Bowl of any of those eight previous back to back
00:04:12Super Bowl winners in Kansas City gets to the big easy. That would be another
00:04:17notch of history in this dynastic run, let alone trying to win said Lombardi
00:04:23trophy. Are you going to be the person to step in front of that train and that
00:04:27trend? There's a lot of people that believe it is Buffalo's time right here
00:04:33right now. And it's not just the Chiefs doing this as of played, and it's this
00:04:38upstart Bill's team led by an MVP contender in Josh Allen. The Chiefs
00:04:43have made it to the A. S. C. Championship game or a Super Bowl, often
00:04:48Donnie in the last five years, rolling over Buffalo in the most significant
00:04:54stages of a season in the playoffs. 2020 A. F. C. Championship game in K. C. The
00:05:01Chiefs win by two touchdowns. That wonderful divisional round game 13
00:05:06seconds over time, and Alan never gets the football back. But the Chiefs
00:05:10victorious. Last year, the game was in western New York. The Chiefs were an
00:05:15underdog. It was supposed to be the end of this dynasty era in Kansas City in
00:05:21KC still wins outright. So there's the Chiefs playoff pedigree that is more
00:05:27than deserved and, of course, earned. And there's also the Chiefs being the
00:05:31playoff nemesis. Buffalo cannot slay. And again, I am not so sure I am going
00:05:38to be the guy to jump in front of that, despite the overwhelming public love
00:05:43for the Buffalo Bills in terms of what we're seeing based on the stats on the
00:05:48fan dual sports book. Exactly. And it's crazy to say, like, Patrick Holmes
00:05:52could go down single greatest football player we've ever seen play Hall of
00:05:56Fame status seven Super Bowls. But even in this game, I look at it and say,
00:06:00based on how the offenses operate, I find myself saying, like, You know what?
00:06:03I think Josh Allen is the more important quarterback to have for his team.
00:06:06He said, That's crazy. What are you talking about? Patrick Holmes, you just
00:06:09said could be one of the best ever. I just feel that juice in that vibe
00:06:12that's gonna come from Alan, knowing that it's going to all be put on his
00:06:15shoulders, and he must dominate this game, but also understanding the
00:06:18capabilities where we said this last year back. Ah, finally, Kansas City, you
00:06:24don't control your path to the Super Bowl, and if you win, you're gonna have
00:06:27to beat the Dolphins, which again, it was in an unbelievably freezing cold.
00:06:30It was at home. The Dolphins were really injured. All right, they beat
00:06:33them. But you know what? Now you're gonna get it. You're not going to
00:06:36Buffalo winning that game. And if you get lucky to do that, you are gonna
00:06:39get slayed in Baltimore like nobody's ever seen. And you know what they did
00:06:43last year? They went to Buffalo and to Baltimore and then be a more talented
00:06:46San Francisco team in the Super Bowl. And now we're gonna say this. You're
00:06:49like, Yeah, finally, Patrick Holmes hasn't played all that well on
00:06:52offense. This team just knows how to win and get it done. And also, this
00:06:57team understands how to dictate pace. And what have we seen a couple years
00:07:00ago? Kansas City will outscore you. But in the fourth quarter, they just need
00:07:03to make one stop. Now we've turned over to Kansas City is not gonna turn the
00:07:07football over, and their defense is gonna punish you, and they'll score
00:07:10just enough points to get a victory and move on to the next round. That's the
00:07:14dilemma that we have, because you can say to me, You know what? I think
00:07:18Buffalo overall is a better football team, and I might agree with you, but
00:07:21just not in the circumstances, because even if this game was in Buffalo, I
00:07:25might still be saying the same thing. Like, Good luck. Look what happened
00:07:28last year. Home field advantage for a healthy football team with Steve
00:07:33Spagnola and Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes, where you just say, Ben, they
00:07:37have to win. Yes, they have to cover one and a half. If they went 28 27 so
00:07:41big. Congratulations. You covered on the bills, but you're asking Kansas
00:07:45City to lose this game at home, which is something they rarely ever do.
00:07:50And, Donny, you see that money line, right? Minus 1 26 for KC plus 108 for
00:07:55the bills. A slight bit of movement on this football Friday morning. Four
00:08:01cents now minus 1 22 for KC plus 104 for Buffalo. All right, Ben, why are
00:08:06we talking about less than a nickel? Because in a game that is expected to
00:08:10be decided by this tightly contested margin, that is noteworthy. 60% of the
00:08:17bets on the spread for the bills. And yet the line is basically stayed right
00:08:23there. I don't think the odds makers would want to make KC a home underdog
00:08:28with a conference championship on the line at all. But there's a lot of love
00:08:33for the bills and Donny. Maybe it's the idea that this is finally the Chiefs
00:08:37team that is not playing at its highest ever elite level that will finally be
00:08:41knocked off its perch. Maybe it's just we've seen these guys before and they
00:08:46get all the calls from the Zebras. We don't want them to play once again in a
00:08:52Super Bowl. But the betting public is on Buffalo. What about that total?
00:08:58Because you said KC's offense will do just enough behind a stifling defense.
00:09:04Well, we'll talk that 48 and a half and what we expect the offensive flow to
00:09:10look like in Arrowhead on Sunday, led by the two quarterbacks, a showdown once
00:09:15more between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. We continue to get you ready
00:09:20for the AFC championship game on Sunday night in Arrowhead. It's the Chiefs and
00:09:25the bills meeting up in an NFL postseason for the fourth time in the
00:09:30last five years. It's been all KC previously. Is it going to continue to
00:09:35be that way? They have also been high scoring games on both sides. 27 24, the
00:09:43lowest scoring game from a season ago in the previous three playoff matchups
00:09:47between these two. That's still 51 combined points, which would be over our
00:09:52total for Sunday evening. Now standing at 48 and a half up by a four point
00:09:59from where it was the R. S. Earlier in the week. Just how much offense are you
00:10:04anticipating at Arrowhead come Sunday night? Yeah, if we looked at both games,
00:10:09the game that you were leaning towards probably going over for me all week was
00:10:12Buffalo in Kansas City because the engagement here, which you should have.
00:10:15I don't care how good your defense is. You just look at the Buffalo Bills
00:10:18offense and that hot run that it's been on. Like you said, Donnie, what's more
00:10:22likely the Buffalo Bills to go over their team told her under the team
00:10:25total. Regardless of who wins this game, I would still say over because I'm
00:10:29expecting the Buffalo Bills to push some pace against Kansas City and Kansas
00:10:33City will be forced to respond. How many times we watched even the Houston game
00:10:37last week. If you're not putting pressure with your offense on Kansas
00:10:40City's defense, Kansas City's offense will reciprocate and say, Okay, let's
00:10:44get first down. Let's see if we can get in field goal range. Let's make sure we
00:10:47get some points. We don't have to be all that aggressive. But if you put
00:10:50Kansas City in a hole, which is something I haven't been in quite for
00:10:52any, you know, two scenarios this year. Keep in mind to like we talk about
00:10:56Kansas City as right for the upset. Patrick Mahomes sat out the final game
00:11:00of the season where they got blasted by Denver. Take that game away. Mahomes
00:11:04lost one time this year. You say yes, it was towards the Buffalo Bills. I get
00:11:08that. But you have ebbs and flows, good games, bad games, injuries that come in
00:11:12and the Kansas City Chiefs never flinched a whole year. So this isn't a
00:11:16team that I always say, Hey, they squeaked in in a bad division at 10 and
00:11:20seven, got a little hot in the playoffs with good matchups and oh no, the
00:11:24Buffalo Bills are here. This is a dominant football team from start to
00:11:28finish this year. That's not getting a lot of respect that's coming off of two
00:11:31world championships looking for a third. And I was talking to Kevin
00:11:34yesterday on the radio and how interesting would it have been if the
00:11:38Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs game number one went the Kansas City
00:11:41Chiefs direction. We might be talking about the Kansas City Chiefs are
00:11:44unbeaten on this season looking for a Super Bowl. So that's where I like to
00:11:48start with the total because I agree with that movement 47 after 48 and a
00:11:52half. If you engage Kansas City, they will return fire. But it seems like
00:11:56nobody can engage Kansas City because their defense has been that good. Josh
00:12:00Allen just might be that Chico that goes, I don't care about Chris Jones.
00:12:03Oh, he's going to wreck the pocket. Yeah, I'll scamper outside and make
00:12:05plays with my feet and hit some guys downfield like Khalil Shakir. I got two
00:12:09competent tight ends. I have my best running back that I've ever had since
00:12:12I've been in Buffalo right now in cook. So let's get after it. I look at that
00:12:1647 to 48 and a half and I still think it has a great chance to get into the
00:12:20fifties. And listen, the Buffalo Bills are a top three scoring offense in the
00:12:25NFL. They are one of three teams alongside the Lions and the Ravens this
00:12:30year to average better than 30 points per game. They basically scored 30 in
00:12:35nine of their last 11 when everybody was out there and you see the
00:12:40distinction Donny between the points scored by a team in the points allowed.
00:12:45That has been the story for this KCT last year. It was uncharacteristic
00:12:51football dropping games. They never would only 11 wins. And again, only 11
00:12:56wins is funny, but that's the standard that Kansas City holds itself to. They
00:13:01had to go on the road starting in the divisional round. They were an underdog
00:13:06in their final three matchups to eventually win a Lombardi trophy. And we
00:13:10scoffed at the idea that Casey should ever be booked as an underdog in a
00:13:16critical postseason game this year. They have won basically every game except
00:13:22for week 11 in Buffalo, mind you, booked as an underdog. But the issue
00:13:28with the Chiefs now is, well, they haven't been overwhelmingly impressive.
00:13:33They're not blowing anybody out. They can't cover in games. They are expected
00:13:37to win big. I don't know how many times Donny has said that throughout this
00:13:42week. It doesn't matter if they win this game by three or six or 10. They
00:13:48just need to win the game outright, as the money line is telling you right
00:13:53here, right now. Donny, I do believe we flirt with that total. Will we go over
00:13:5848 and a half? I'm not entirely sure. But I don't think this is a Chiefs game
00:14:02we have seen throughout this season. 14-10, 17-14, 20-17. I do believe both
00:14:09teams will touch at bare minimum 20 in KC, of course, continuing its dynastic
00:14:16playoff run. 19 total playoff games. The Chiefs have won 16. They have
00:14:21covered in 13. They have gone under 10 times and over in nine. And it's these
00:14:28two teams, these two franchises competing against each other for a
00:14:33fourth time in the last five postseasons. It's also these two
00:14:38quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes has all of the accolades. But can Josh Allen in
00:14:43this year, the best potentially of his NFL career, finally do enough to pull
00:14:48off the upset? DRS, when you look at the numbers, how do you compare the QBs for
00:14:53Sunday? Yeah, it makes sense because Patrick Mahomes should have the
00:14:56advantage this week. And so, well, Donny, you just said that Josh Allen's the
00:14:59ultimate equalizer. He is, but understand this too. Just looking at simple metrics
00:15:02here. Let's go by pro football focus. Number two defense in the NFL, it's
00:15:05Kansas City. You know, it's a bottom five defense rated in the NFL. It's the
00:15:09Buffalo Bills. So you're not, you saw last week and we have to take recency
00:15:13bias always out of the equation. The Texans got a damn good defense. It's way
00:15:18better than the Buffalo Bills defense. So if you take a look at last week, all
00:15:21they struggled last week against Houston's defense. A lot of teams
00:15:24struggled against Houston's defense this year. But now you're looking at
00:15:26the Kansas City Chiefs have been absolutely lights up. This might be Ben,
00:15:30the best version at Kansas City's ever had on defense in the Patrick Mahomes
00:15:34air right now on their side at home in cooler temperatures here. That's the
00:15:37advantage. So you see those numbers 1.5 touchdown passes. There's a reason
00:15:41why. Hey, Patrick Mahomes, that often doesn't really move the football where
00:15:44he's used much more to throw two touchdowns than Jared Allen is. And
00:15:47it's excuse me, Jared. Yeah, Josh, excuse me. But the fact of the matter
00:15:51is, yeah, Josh, when you're running the football, I don't really love Kansas
00:15:55City's running game. I do like, you know, the running game per se. If we
00:15:58look at the quarterback and the running back with cook on Buffalo side. But to
00:16:01me, that's all comes down to. I get the nod to my homes, not because I think
00:16:04he's overall better quarterback. It's got a way easier matchup to move the
00:16:08football. Then let's just say Josh Allen. We'll talk about Patrick Mahomes
00:16:12on the other side of the break and his historic numbers in prior A. F. C.
00:16:17Championship games. Because, of course, there is a large data size to look at
00:16:22for Kansas City all seven years with Mahomes as the starting Q. B. They have
00:16:27played in the A. F. C. Championship game. Josh Allen, Buffalo's leading
00:16:31rusher during the regular season against K. C. And has utilized his legs
00:16:35often against the Chiefs in the past. Let's see more next live right here on
00:16:40the early line on SportsCritic. We continue to break down each and every
00:16:44angle of our conference championship games for this Sunday. Now, just 48
00:16:49hours out, we look at the A. F. C. Championship game and that quarterback
00:16:54matchup that, of course, will have all the eyeballs, the attention, the
00:16:57notoriety and thus the narratives. Patrick Mahomes is number 2 49 and a
00:17:03hook didn't even clear 200 last week against the Texans. This chiefs offense
00:17:08and they're not nearly as good as they were back in 2021 or even 2019. But
00:17:15Donnie and A. F. C. Championship games. That's where Patrick Mahomes steps up
00:17:20241 yards in a touchdown last year against the Ravens in Baltimore. That
00:17:26was the only of his six A. F. C. Title matchups without multiple passing
00:17:31touchdowns. He is only thrown an interception in one of his prior six
00:17:36A. F. C. Championship games that was in the lost to Cincinnati in 2021. He has
00:17:4215 touchdowns to two I. N. T. S. In the six game sample size around those A. F.
00:17:48C. Championships and he is thrown for at least 2 90 outside of last year in
00:17:54every single one I shared yesterday. The first bet I locked in for this
00:18:00specific matchup is Patrick Mahomes over 2 49 and a half because I do
00:18:05believe this game will feature offense and points. And I think Kansas City,
00:18:10regardless of what happens to the outcome, will prove once again that
00:18:14they can go toe to toe with anybody in the NFL. You're right. And also match
00:18:19ups, you know, styles make fights here. You saw last week cold temperatures
00:18:22there. Houston's got to a really good second. There were included two
00:18:25wonderful cornerbacks. You don't really have it with the Buffalo Bills all that
00:18:28much. And you also have a healthy wide receiving core. You take a look at last
00:18:31week. A couple guys were invisible. Hollywood Brown didn't really do
00:18:33anything. Deandre Hopkins didn't do anything because that means that that
00:18:36secondary is blanketing them. Now you're gonna have to pick your poison this
00:18:39week. You know, Andy Reed's gonna scheme some things up, which leads to a
00:18:42pretty good day from a homes and also it leads to a good day from homes if and
00:18:46I do think Buffalo is gonna be able to counterpunch whatever Kansas City does
00:18:50or at least move the football to keep them as a viable option. Because usually
00:18:54you would say, wait a second, actual homes to 50 and a half in this game. Get
00:18:57out of here. You know what they're gonna do? Slow the game down. It'll be
00:18:5976 at the half. They'll be down, you know, 10 6 or whatever in the 10 7 in
00:19:04the second half. And I'll be like, you know what? They'll finally score on
00:19:06that possession and it might end that way. But I'm expecting way more out of
00:19:10the Buffalo Bill saying, you know what? We are gonna be so aggressive in this
00:19:13game because the way you knock out the champion is not kicking field goals on
00:19:184th and 2 at the 13 yard line. The expectations, which we're gonna go over
00:19:21some picks that we like at the end of the show, and it does deal with the
00:19:24kicking game here. I love the ultra conservative championship games that you
00:19:28do see. But you know, I like even more the ultra aggressive games like, Oh,
00:19:31you know what? This team is actually playing to win, not playing to. Let's
00:19:35see if we can keep it close at the end of the football game in teams have
00:19:39always been trying to figure out that blueprint. How do you beat the Chiefs?
00:19:42Do you keep it away from their lethal offense? Now do you outscore them from
00:19:47the jump and try to have them play from behind all of those decisions? All of
00:19:51those game plan X's and O's will go in to the prop market. Josh Allen, by the
00:19:57way, at least 68 rushing yards in the previous three matchups in the post
00:20:01season against K. C. You see that number 47 and a half. He had 55 in the
00:20:07regular season win in Western New York in week 11. He was Buffalo's leading
00:20:12rusher. But really, outside of that game, D. R. S. James Cook has had a
00:20:16sensational season through the 1000 yard mark for a second consecutive year. Did
00:20:22not score last week as I thought he might against the Ravens, but has
00:20:26scored 17 rushing touchdowns this season. That's near the top of the NFL.
00:20:30What do you expect that Buffalo rushing attack to look like against this stout
00:20:35Chiefs front in the idea? Often, Donny, let's keep the football out of Patrick
00:20:40Mahomes his hands. They're all correlated, right? You saw last week,
00:20:43and I was saying, You know what? This is gonna really hurt the Houston Texans.
00:20:47Joe Mixon. I like a lot of the running backs coming in with a bum ankle in
00:20:49this game. Boy, if he's not effective, they won't be able to hang around. He
00:20:53looked a lot better and a lot healthier than I thought. So why can't we get
00:20:56similar numbers out of even more explosive running back and cook is the
00:20:59one thing you're not worried about with Houston, right? When you see that R. P.
00:21:03O. Type game. Yes, C. J. Stroud can run, but it's not a focal point of the
00:21:06Texans offense. Now, when you take a look and say you have to respect the
00:21:10quarterback in the backfield every time he runs an R. P. O. That gives
00:21:13you extra lanes and also mixing is a great running back. You know, it's more
00:21:16explosive. It's James Cook in that environment. So correlation for me, if
00:21:20Buffalo wants to hang around this game with a legitimate chance to win, I
00:21:23don't think they can do with 37 yards from James Cook.
00:21:28I think it's a great point. A buck 24 Cook in the opening playoff game
00:21:31against Denver under this number last week, but the Ravens again, the best
00:21:36rushing defense by far all season long in the National Football League. The
00:21:40Chiefs don't really have that punch, but they'll hope to get it done with two
00:21:44guys that, of course, have won A. F. C. Titles for Casey. In the past, Kareem
00:21:50Hunt three yards higher than that of Isaiah Pacheco in terms of their
00:21:53rushing yards. Profs our number two of a football Friday. That's next. It is
00:21:59our number two. It is a football Friday getting you ready for conference
00:22:03championship Sunday. Now just two days out around the National Football League.
00:22:08The big guns air here for a football Friday. That is Donny right side. I just
00:22:13humbly proud to serve you on the early line today. I am Ben Stevens. Two more
00:22:18hours to go. Plenty of deep dives and breakdowns continuing to come your way
00:22:23around each of our two conference championship matchups for Sunday. We are
00:22:29already breaking down the A. F. C. Championship game will continue to
00:22:32appear into the prop market, and then we'll turn it over to the NFC
00:22:36championship game. Our first of two on Sunday in Donny's neck of the woods
00:22:41with Donny's team, the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Washington
00:22:45Commanders. Yeah, we'll get some help in the next hour. Tom Becchio is going
00:22:49to join us as well as Mark Zeno gave fabulous breakdowns yesterday. We might
00:22:53have them live. We might just have to run the replays back of their handicaps
00:22:56of that Commander's Eagles game. So we'll be after it. We got a lot of help
00:23:00coming over the next two hours. People don't you go anywhere? I think what he
00:23:04is alluding to is the fact that we had a couple of great guests yesterday.
00:23:08If Donny could take a break and we look at some of the videos from two guys
00:23:13that were heavily invested, it appeared in the Eagles. That would be great
00:23:17because you haven't been here on a football Friday in a while. But Mike
00:23:20blew it is a state of a football Friday. He will join us here in our number
00:23:26two D. R. S. We talked about the A. F. C. Championship game. We compared the
00:23:30quarterbacks. We looked at the backfields both for Buffalo and of
00:23:33course in Kansas City. Now the pass catchers. Neither has that true number
00:23:39one wide receiver. But when it comes to the postseason, the number one always
00:23:45for the Chiefs is the tight end. Travis Kelsey here to remind us of that
00:23:50exactly a week ago against the Houston Texans, 117 yards and a touchdown. The
00:23:58second most receiving yards now north of two K in NFL playoff history. It's
00:24:04the most prolific or one of the most prolific playoff connections between
00:24:09quarterback and receiver in the history of the NFL. Do you expect it to
00:24:14continue as such against the bills come Sunday night? Why not? Absolutely. It's
00:24:20not a great bills defense here that you're going up against. And also it
00:24:23just figures where you got Travis Kelsey rested and ready. Then we think
00:24:26he lost his step last year. Bellicom in slow down. The regular season gets
00:24:31charged up and is dominant throughout the playoffs. This looks like we're
00:24:34rolling back the clock 5 to 6 years on Travis Kelsey with the actual effort
00:24:38that we've seen over the past playoff game. And it's gonna extend in this
00:24:42one. I do believe 67 and a half. You might say, though, boy, that's a lot of
00:24:45numbers. And then you say to yourself and you'll listen to the telecast and
00:24:48they'll be yelling. I don't understand. It's 3rd and eight and Kelsey is wide
00:24:52open. Well, it's not. They don't cover him. It's a scheme him to get open, and
00:24:55it's brilliance by Andy Reed and Patrick Holmes, knowing exactly where
00:24:59those two guys are supposed to be reading defenses and throwing in and
00:25:03out of the break. Will I be betting on Travis Kelsey's over 67 or under? No, I
00:25:07won't. But I'm not going to be surprised when Travis Kelsey has five catches for
00:25:1268 yards at the half saying, Wow, that's amazing. Kelsey actually showed up in a
00:25:16big game when he shows up damn near every single big game. So from pants
00:25:20catching perspective, Kelsey's the top end there. I'm probably not going. But
00:25:23if you do look down, Xavier Worthy's to me their number one overall wide
00:25:27receiver. He's at 49 and a half. That makes sense. Marquis Brown, who had some
00:25:31shine here late in the season, didn't really do anything at all in the
00:25:35previous playoff game against Houston that will start to open up. But one of
00:25:38those by low spots that I like, and I took it two different ways. The one
00:25:42that it did take yesterday, and I'll tell you what I'm gonna have on the
00:25:44show is you look at the Andre Hopkins, you look at his schedule throughout the
00:25:48season, every single game, then four to five catches 30 plus yards as that
00:25:53staple to say, You know what? 35 throw a quick slant first and 10 throw it out
00:25:57to him. Let me get a couple yards here. I look at the 24 and a half. I'll speak
00:26:00on a little bit later, but I went over 2.5 receptions at a plus 1 10 price
00:26:04yesterday, figuring that yes, understandably, he didn't look good
00:26:08last week. It was a play where the or should I say a defense that was really
00:26:11schemed to say beat us deep, and that's not really what he does. He's
00:26:15more the intermediate route with Houston is fantastic at covering. So I
00:26:18bought back in on the Andre Hopkins because I could just see this, too. If
00:26:22we get a little bit more of a wide open game of close to 50 points, that
00:26:25means extra passes and extra receivers in routes. So I took a low point on
00:26:29the Andre Hopkins at a plus money with 2.5 receptions. I think it's a great
00:26:33look. Drs. Only four chiefs receivers were targeted multiple times last
00:26:38Saturday against the Texans. Travis Kelsey eight. Xavier Worthy six. Noah
00:26:43Gray three. Hollywood Brown two. But again, when you look at Travis Kelsey,
00:26:49Patrick Mahomes last week only had 177 yards, a buck 17 to Travis. He only had
00:26:5616 completions, nearly half of that seven receptions for Travis Kelsey. He
00:27:02threw a touchdown. Who did it go to? Travis Kelsey last year in the
00:27:06divisional round in Buffalo. Kelsey five grabs 75 yards to touchdowns. This
00:27:12is what he does last week. The prop against Houston. Maybe the best bet I
00:27:17have made all season in the NFL was 51 and a half. He doubled that up. It is
00:27:22now up by 16 yards week over week game over game to 67 and a half. And you see
00:27:29the numbers for Buffalo? Not a ton, right? Khalil Shakir has been the
00:27:33leading receiver for the bills all season long targets, grabs and
00:27:37receiving yards. He has that highest number at 55 and a hook. And let's just
00:27:42finish with one thought. Drs on the bills. Tough to look at Josh Allen last
00:27:47week and expect to see that same performance less than 150 total yards
00:27:52for Allen. Despite two rushing scores, there is no way he pitches a similar
00:27:57performance in Kansas City in my estimation in Buffalo wins that game.
00:28:03And if we do see the offensive output that I kind of anticipate, I think
00:28:07Allen could go over both of those numbers, which means Khalil Shakir,
00:28:11Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, whoever it might be are apt to go over their
00:28:16short receiving yards props as well. Yeah, because the one thing we're not
00:28:20going to factor on is that the Buffalo Bill is gonna be plus three in the
00:28:23turnover margin going up against the Kansas City Chiefs. They'll be lucky to
00:28:25even have a plus in the turnover margin if it's one to nothing at that
00:28:29point. But you're right about this because you do try to find levels to
00:28:32this. We understand Khalil Shakir is the number one wide receivers in the
00:28:35slot. He's gonna get some pretty good cornerbacks going up against him here.
00:28:39So for me, when I look at this and say you see the 2 30 price on Josh Allen,
00:28:43let's just say he gets to 2 30. Well, if Khalil Shakir gets his, let's just
00:28:46say 60 yards, 65 yards, somebody else is gonna have to eat. And it's not as
00:28:50if you're looking at which will talk about the Philadelphia Eagles, which on
00:28:52a typical Sunday when everybody's healthy. Hey, A. J. Brown's 80.5 yards.
00:28:56And then you take a look at, let's just say Devante Smith at 71.5. Look at
00:29:00the value you're getting across the board when you figure in a game that's
00:29:03close to 50 points. It really doesn't match up. Dalton K. K. 32.5. Amari
00:29:07Cooper, who was brought in to be that number one veteran presence down to 17
00:29:12and a half. You take a look at Keon Coleman, the young rookie there, 20.5
00:29:16Dalton or excuse me, Dawson Knox, 15 and a half. The reason I'm bringing
00:29:19this up is these numbers are so low. Somebody, including multiple wide
00:29:23receivers are going to have to go over that number, Ben, just to achieve Allen
00:29:27getting close to 2 30. It's a great point, Donnie. If he even attempts to
00:29:31get close to 2 32 25 plus, which you would think he would have to to out
00:29:37shine my homes and to win an A. F. C. Championship and to send Buffalo back
00:29:41to a Super Bowl for the first time in more than three decades since 1993 guys
00:29:46are going to have to be out there to catch those passes. Khalil Shakir, even
00:29:51as the top target, his number is 55 and a hook. All right, Donnie, from the A.
00:29:57F. C. Championship game to the N. F. C. Championship game. Let's look at these
00:30:02numbers. And then, of course, we will continue the conversation on the other
00:30:06side, a 6.5 point spread in favor of Philadelphia nearing a touchdown at
00:30:13Lincoln Financial Field in a total at 47 and a half. You see nearly a
00:30:18touchdown spread in a total of 47 and a hook. The R. S. What is your first
00:30:23thought for the N. F. C. Championship game? Our first of two on Sunday, you
00:30:28look at the line movement once again, we talked about it all week long. The
00:30:31opening number of fan blue sportsbook here in New Jersey was 4.5 points. You
00:30:34look at right now, it's 6.5 points. We'll see what I would probably say,
00:30:38Ben, it's gonna settle between six and 6.5 by the time we get the Sunday,
00:30:41unless we get some crazy information like everybody's healthy or multiple
00:30:45people aren't going to be playing this game from either side of the equation.
00:30:48But for me, you also look at those seven out of 10 tickets coming on the
00:30:52commanders and understanding that line going higher and not lower, despite
00:30:56being a big time, big time public dog. And the one thing that we always say in
00:31:01this industry, Boy, oh, boy, if the public is loving an underdog, tuck your
00:31:05tail and run the opposite direction. Does it always work that way? No, it's
00:31:09an interesting live movement this week, Ben. Let's get you ready for Philly.
00:31:15A best of three between divisional mates for a conference championship on
00:31:20the line Sunday in the city of brotherly love at Lincoln Financial Field. It's
00:31:25the Eagles and the commanders, a 6.5 point spread in favor of Philly at home,
00:31:31a total of 47 and a hook. Of course, the R. S. Two organizations hailing from
00:31:36the N. F. C. E. So they beat up twice per season in the regular season. Each
00:31:42team held serve on its own home field. Philadelphia won game number one back in
00:31:47week 11 on a short week Thursday night. The commanders led early in the opening
00:31:52half. It was basically all Philadelphia in the final two quarters in a huge
00:31:57night. Stop me if you've heard this before. Forsake Juan Barkley 26 18 the
00:32:02victory for the birds. Week number 16. The game outside the nation's capital
00:32:08in Landover. Jalen hurts exits about five minutes into the game with a
00:32:13concussion. Kenny Pickett comes in. The Eagles lead early. The commanders turned
00:32:18the football over five times, but then Jaden Daniels continues to make rookie
00:32:23history. Five touchdown passes to overcome five turnovers for his team.
00:32:28The commanders win game number 236 33 outright as a 3.5 point home underdog.
00:32:37All right, the R. S. Which sets the stage for this NFC championship matchup
00:32:42that is nearing a touchdown. And I do want to dive in to something you said
00:32:47right before the break. 70% 70% of the bets on the spread are on the
00:32:54commanders. What did you guys say? This line opened at 4.5 on Sunday
00:32:58afternoon after the Eagles outlasted the Rams in snowy Philadelphia. Yep.
00:33:04Wasn't it? 5.5 on Monday. Almost immediately. Yep. Isn't Jalen hurts
00:33:10dealing with a left knee injury? Also correct in the line is now nearing a
00:33:15touchdown despite 70% of the public backing that plucky underdog. Yep.
00:33:23Something you should know entering the NFC title game on Sunday. It makes
00:33:28sense. Like you look at the Philadelphia Eagles. It's hard to win
00:33:31on the road. We understand that understand this to Washington's won
00:33:35some playoff games on the road. Nobody's taking that away from. It's a
00:33:37great franchise right now. Looks like they're headed in the positive
00:33:40direction. Maybe a lot sooner than later because if they come into Philadelphia
00:33:43and upset the Eagles head to the Super Bowl, my goodness lights out for the
00:33:46next decade. It would feel like on Jaden Daniels and the commanders. But
00:33:50also we have to be realistic about what we are watching. The Eagles are a
00:33:53good football team. I know some people might have watched that game. Let's say,
00:33:55hey, the Eagles got lucky to win. No, the Eagles went to a prevent defense in
00:33:59the final three minutes and all this cost themselves the game. Meanwhile,
00:34:01winning by double digits late. Take that out of the equation. Also understand
00:34:05this. Saquon Barkley is something that, you know, you look at like the O. J.
00:34:09Simpsons and maybe the C. J. Two Ks back in Tennessee in the day and the
00:34:13Adrian Peterson's. But you couple the best offensive line in the sport with
00:34:18the best running back that maybe we've ever seen for a single season in the
00:34:21sport. And that's them up and against, according to pro football focus, the
00:34:2529th ranked rush defense in the NFL. And we've seen Saquon Barkley. The
00:34:31Packers are a much better defense there. Run rough shot over them. You saw the
00:34:35Rams last week in the snow where nobody can even basically stand up. Saquon
00:34:38Barkley's hitting home runs left and right there. That's an advantage. Also,
00:34:43the handicap early in the week for the Philadelphia Eagles for me was boy, if I
00:34:45could just get. We're not asking for a great Jalen Hurts. Give me a
00:34:48functional Jalen Hurts full practice yesterday on a Thursday. You expect the
00:34:52same things here on a Friday. Understand this as well. You're not going up
00:34:55against a chump defense on the opposite side, like for later parts of the
00:34:59season. The Detroit Lions defense was this is the number one defense by a
00:35:04wide margin in the NFL that stops the run and has the number one rated
00:35:08secondary in football going up against a rookie quarterback. That's
00:35:12understanding this. The Philadelphia Eagles have been home for over a month,
00:35:16haven't left their beds practicing the same facility, knocking it on trains,
00:35:20planes, buses and planes trying to head out to play other teams. They're at
00:35:23home. There's a reason they're favored by a touchdown. The old adage for me,
00:35:27they don't pick a number out of the hat and say, perfect. The public will love
00:35:31this line. Everything indicates to a Philadelphia Eagles victory. Are we
00:35:34saying it's gonna be a blow up? Is it gonna be easy cover? Probably not at
00:35:38that point. But nobody is heading into this football game. Looking at the
00:35:40Eagles are lucky to be in the spot at this point, as opposed to watch what
00:35:44Saquon Barkley does. Can you go for 300 yards against the defense and multiple
00:35:50touchdowns? That's the angle to play. One team has a very good defense. The
00:35:53other has a very bad defense and you sit on that.
00:35:5747.5 is the total DRS. You mentioned the defensive outputs that we are going
00:36:04to see. Philadelphia has been the best way to defense in the NFL, in large
00:36:08part for the entirety of this season. If the Eagles are to win, it may be do
00:36:14so comfortably, potentially covering as a 6.5 point home favorite. What does
00:36:19that mean for our over under a 47.5 points?
00:36:23The tough part is is because I both of these games, I think, have a chance to
00:36:27trend towards the over, right? But if we are looking optimistically, it's a
00:36:31Philadelphia Eagles. You're in a game with the number one ranked defense, but
00:36:34also the number one ranked rush offense. And outside of Saquon Barkley last
00:36:37week, hitting home run after home run. These games probably have a tendency to
00:36:41stay under the total for me because that's the game play that the Philadelphia
00:36:44Eagles would like to use. We're going to use that clock. We're gonna score
00:36:47touchdowns. We're gonna play great defense and away we go until the final
00:36:51five minutes where teams or games usually get a little bit of health or
00:36:54skelter at that point because you're just trying to score turnovers happen
00:36:57and you get all that. So my vantage point for me is I would lean, let's just
00:37:00say both games over in the Buffalo game under in the Philadelphia game.
00:37:05I would agree. I think if the commanders are going to win this game
00:37:08outright, it is because of a sensational offense that Washington
00:37:12has had all year long. And D. R. S. You mentioned the Eagles. I don't think
00:37:16anybody in their right mind would consider Philadelphia lucky to be in
00:37:20this spot hosting an NFC championship game. Yeah, I heard this coming into
00:37:27the playoffs. Nobody wants to play the Packers blowout win. Rams hottest team
00:37:31most dangerous out there. Eagles are upset. They gotta play them, beat them
00:37:34too. And now you're hearing it about the Washington commanders, man, nobody
00:37:37wants to go up against Jaden Daniels and then we'll go to the Super Bowl.
00:37:40Nobody wants to go up against the Buffalo Bills. Same M. O. He was love
00:37:43this stuff. That's the way it plays out. So it's fun to sort of get into the
00:37:46mix where it's like lucky to be here because at the hot trend was the
00:37:50Packers, wasn't it? The hot trend was the Rams, wasn't it? Now the hot trend
00:37:54is the commanders plays in order. What was the theme during Super Bowl 52? A
00:38:00hungry dog likes to eat, right? Run faster than the masks. They run fast.
00:38:05Yeah, yeah. All of that. All of that good stuff. The Eagles are not an
00:38:09underdog. Of course, a 6.5 point favorite. Maybe they're lucky to be
00:38:13hosting the NFC championship game and not having to go to Detroit to play in
00:38:19it because of the commanders, because of Jaden Daniels, because of his
00:38:24historic season that continues in because he has defied the odds all year
00:38:30long. The quarterback comparison of the props next. Jaden Daniels has had a
00:38:36historic rookie season. Could you call it potentially the best rookie campaign
00:38:41a quarterback in NFL history has ever seen? Yeah, because he is now one of
00:38:47six quarterbacks as a rookie to start a conference championship game, hoping to
00:38:54defy a 6.5 point spread and the odds once more to become the first rookie
00:39:00signal caller to start a Super Bowl ever. So let's compare those
00:39:06quarterbacks. The R. S. Will look at both guys to 23.5 the passing yards
00:39:11prop for Daniels, 54.5 the rushing yards number. It is the highest
00:39:16rushing yards prop for anybody that plays for Washington. I ask you the
00:39:21question like this. Is there even a chance the commanders keep this game
00:39:26within margin, let alone strike the outright upset if Jaden Daniels does
00:39:30not go over both of those numbers or the only other option, I guess, would
00:39:36be that Jalen hurts is so injured like the Eagles offense can't really
00:39:39function but hand the football off in the three yards in a cloud of dust. But
00:39:42I think your notion is correct. You look at that and say, well, Jaden Daniels
00:39:45through for 1 90. Well, that doesn't bowl. Well, Jaden Daniels ran 14 times
00:39:49for 46 yards. That doesn't look good. And he only threw one touchdown pass
00:39:53to the army on the outside. That doesn't look good. So I do believe it
00:39:56is a correlation and sometimes they're better ways to bet. Like if you
00:40:00honestly think the commanders are going to win that football game and say
00:40:02because Jaden Daniels has a good game, there's a really good chance that Jaden
00:40:06Daniels has an unbelievable game and they don't even win or cover the spread
00:40:10because you're worried about that commander's defense and what the Eagles
00:40:12offense can do to you. So I agree with you in that notion. There's not really
00:40:16a correlation that says we get a subpar effort from Jaden Daniels and
00:40:20Washington wins. It feels like it goes hand in hand. He's has to have a great
00:40:24game and even that doesn't guarantee a victory.
00:40:27Jaden Daniels had arguably the worst game of his rookie season outside of
00:40:31his debut in Tampa in that week 11 game in Philadelphia, 191 yards, a
00:40:38touchdown late that even made it a single score game to Zach Ertz and an
00:40:43interception was sacked three times by Philly. If the Eagles have Jaden
00:40:48Daniels play that kind of performance, we'll say, ooh, that was a rookie. But
00:40:53Vic Fangio, the Eagles astute defensive coordinator said maybe he is a rookie by
00:40:57birth certificate. He is not a rookie when you turn on the tape. That has
00:41:02been incredibly true for the commanders and their quarterback this season. Donnie
00:41:07on the other side, Jalen hurts dealing with that ailing left knee injury. And
00:41:12I think the numbers specifically for the Eagles quarterback reflect that not
00:41:17the spread that is now 6.5, but just his props for this NFC championship
00:41:23game. What do the Eagles need out of Jalen hurts as it correlates to those
00:41:28numbers to be successful on Sunday?
00:41:311 85, which would cover that 1 79.5, which means he's functional running the
00:41:36football enough to keep the defense honest. So let's just say 35 yards. That
00:41:40might include a couple of push pushes and throwing for at least one touchdown
00:41:43pass because you have to understand. Saquon is going to get a lot of work in
00:41:47this game. So if you're taking a look and saying, you know what? 25 touches at
00:41:51a minimum from handoff plays are coming to Saquon Barkley. How effective the
00:41:55Jalen hurts have to be now? Would it be great if he reverts back to that game
00:41:58against the Steelers and throws her close to 300 yards? But they don't need
00:42:01that. But understand this to Dan Quinn's pretty smart. He understands that
00:42:04you're not getting 100% Jalen hurts in the running game for himself. And the
00:42:09way to stop the Eagles is you must limit Saquon Barkley. So therefore, you
00:42:13have to dynamite wide receivers on the outside that might be working in one on
00:42:17one coverage against the secondary. That isn't so good. Those are the
00:42:21advantages. So could the Eagles win if Jalen hurts throws for 130 yards?
00:42:25They've won games like that this year, but I don't believe that I believe
00:42:29they're gonna be placed and be made in the passing game. Why? Because the
00:42:32defense is going to dictate that we want to force you. Look, you can be
00:42:35successful on the ground running into eight man boxes and nine man boxes. Say
00:42:38quants get home runs on that, but that's not the theory. That's not good
00:42:41offensive play where you're lining up and Jalen hurts goes, boy, I would love
00:42:45to check to a slant to the outside to A. J. Brown, but let's just run it right
00:42:49up the middle into the teeth of the defense plays need to be made. And I do
00:42:52think 200 yards passing is not out of the realm, and that easily covers a
00:42:57number for your starting quarterback in Jalen hurts. Completely agreed to
00:43:01E. R. S. Jalen hurts will be the person I live bet come Sunday once I see what
00:43:07he does. Could I miss a number if he drops back and hits A. J. Brown for 44
00:43:11yards on the first offensive play from scrimmage for Philadelphia? Sure, but
00:43:16I'll wait and see because I don't want to get spurned. We can see what the
00:43:19expectation is, though. Forsake one Barclay, 24 1.5. The attempts prop the
00:43:26over has the juice 1 25 and a hook the yardage prop pretty even in terms of
00:43:31the juice 12 and a half receiving yards greater than a $2 minus money
00:43:36favorite to hit pater. We will talk about the high flying bird that is
00:43:41Saquon Barkley in just a little bit. In fact, we continue to take our deep dive
00:43:47around Conference Championship weekend with a staple of a football Friday. My
00:43:52fluid joins the show. Now, I have said all morning long the big guns for a
00:43:56Conference Championship Football Friday live right here on the early line.
00:44:01Donny right side is here. That is why. And now a football Friday would never
00:44:05be a football Friday without the services of Mike fluid. He joins us
00:44:10here on T. E. L. To preview the Conference Championship matchups in the
00:44:15deep dives continue on the early line blew it. As always, we appreciate the
00:44:20time
00:44:22excited to be with you down the last couple of games that we can preview
00:44:25together. So I'm excited for it. I think we have two good matchups. Obviously,
00:44:30these teams have met many times before with these, even with these current
00:44:35constructions. I know Jaden Daniels is just in his rookie season, but we've
00:44:39already seen two interesting matchups out of him versus the Eagles. So I'm
00:44:43excited to see what happens. And I'll be covering that one live on Sunday with
00:44:47Joe Rainier.
00:44:49Heck, yeah, we'll go step by step through each of these games. We'll talk
00:44:53the big picture. We'll talk the point spread. We'll talk the total in the
00:44:57players that will impact the outcome and send at least two teams to a
00:45:01Super Bowl matchup in the big easy in just a few weeks. Let's start with the
00:45:06A. F. C. Championship game. Two very familiar foes for the fourth time in
00:45:11the last five NFL post seasons in a very familiar setting for an A. F. C.
00:45:16Championship. That would be Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City for a sixth time
00:45:21in the last seven seasons. We're talking a couple of cents on the money line
00:45:26about a quarter right now. Minus 1 22 in favor of K. C. Plus 104. The updated
00:45:32number on the other side for Buffalo, a total slightly on the rise now
00:45:37standing at 48 and a hook. Big picture blew it. You see those numbers first
00:45:42and foremost. You are expecting a high scoring, highly competitive game. Do you
00:45:47think that is what we will see come Sunday evening in Arrowhead? Highly
00:45:52competitive for sure. As far as it definitely being high scoring, I
00:45:57wouldn't, I wouldn't feel certain about that. Obviously these teams have played
00:46:03high scoring games before, right? We saw them play to 51 the last two times out
00:46:08versus one another. But the one before that 37 the matchup before that 44. So
00:46:13there's not a guarantee that we're going to see them up and down the field
00:46:17matching wits all game long. I think 48.5 is a really good number. I'm
00:46:23leaning towards an under because I like the chiefs. I think the bills could win
00:46:27an under, but it's more likely to me that it's an over game. If the bills
00:46:32win it, I've said it many times. I think the chiefs defensive unit is so good at
00:46:37all three levels. They still tend to get undersold because of the presence of
00:46:41superstars on the offensive side, even if they're not playing up to their
00:46:45superstar level. So I think it's a highly competitive game, but I'm leading
00:46:50towards a lower scoring game. I'm glad to see that the weather in both games
00:46:54won't impact it the way it did at the divisional round. It's fun to have
00:46:58those, um, quirky games with the snow impacting it. But when it's the four
00:47:03teams that are left, I'm glad they get to play it straight up. Yeah. May the
00:47:08best team win. It's great. No excuses here. We got the football when it
00:47:11really started the rain or snow and the wind kicked up. We're not gonna have
00:47:13those expectations. But I want to ask you this question, Mike, because it's
00:47:16around a lot and I don't know if it's a respect thing where Kansas City is only
00:47:20a one and a half point favorite. But when this line opened up as such a
00:47:23short favorite and we still see that late in the week, what are your
00:47:26thoughts? And also, where do you think this line closes come game time? I
00:47:31don't think it's gonna move all that much, Donnie. If it moves, though, I
00:47:34would expect it to move towards the chiefs. People like favorites at home,
00:47:39and I think that's where you see the money go. But at this point, with the
00:47:42volume of bets on these games, Donnie, the only time we really see major
00:47:48movement late in the week is when very well respected money is putting huge
00:47:53positions one where the other. I personally think that those positions
00:47:59will go towards the chiefs and Patrick Mahomes being a short favorite is money.
00:48:04If it's this is 6.5 7. We've seen it before. The chiefs don't always thrive
00:48:08as big favorites. In fact, obviously, against the Texans, we had a lot to
00:48:13talk about regarding the end of that game and the point spread. But I would
00:48:17expect it to move towards the chiefs, not any greater than three. Obviously,
00:48:22it gets to three. It gets bet back the other way towards the bills, and I
00:48:25don't think the books want that kind of movement. So I expect to go towards
00:48:28the chiefs and Mahomes is a short favorite in blue. And I did bring up
00:48:33earlier today that the money line currently on fan duels minus 1 22 for
00:48:37the chiefs plus 104 for the bills. It might sound stupid to talk about less
00:48:41than a nickel of movement on the money line. But in a game that is expected to
00:48:45have this margin, I do believe it is noteworthy. And, of course, two very
00:48:51familiar foes. This will be the fourth matchup in the NFL playoffs in the last
00:48:55five seasons between Josh Allen and Buffalo and Patrick Mahomes and Kansas
00:49:00City. Since 2020, when the bills have now won five consecutive AFC East
00:49:04divisional crowns, these two teams have met up in the regular season five
00:49:09times for victories for Buffalo, including this season. But you see the
00:49:13playoff record between the two all Kansas City in all three matchups. The
00:49:18chiefs also three and oh against the spread. How does the previous post
00:49:23season history between Casey and Buffalo factor into your breakdown for
00:49:28this year's rendition? I think it's important to note that the a lot of
00:49:33times you talk about the head coaches, but in these instances, the coordinators
00:49:38have been there for a while. Steve Spagnuolo has seen a lot of what the
00:49:41bills have tried to do now. Obviously, Joe Brady is a relatively new offensive
00:49:46coordinator. He did get a chance to see him in the regular season this year. So
00:49:51my I think my take on it is that the familiarity breeds contempt is obviously
00:49:57a line that everybody throws out. But I think the familiarity allows them to be
00:50:01able to check tendencies. And that's why I frankly see it is more of a lower
00:50:07scoring game in these postseason matchups. Teams like to take the air out
00:50:11of the ball, check each other a little bit early in the games. These offenses
00:50:16are so explosive that could go out the window. But an interesting bet that I've
00:50:20been playing with this week is, uh, both teams to punt on their first drive. You
00:50:25can get a parlay there for more than three bucks. And I think that's an
00:50:29interesting value as these defenses try to check each other early in the game.
00:50:33If we are looking at the quarterback matchup, which is gonna be fantastic to
00:50:37watch, but even without the numbers will start first as you see the graphic
00:50:40coming up on the screen. Let's talk legacy here, Mike. You have a game where
00:50:44the Kansas City Chiefs win this football game to move forward three straight
00:50:48Super Bowl championships, which is something nobody's ever done. That's in
00:50:51play. But I also want to talk to you, Mike, about the opposite end of it. The
00:50:54Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen repeated defeats against Kansas City. Is this one
00:50:59that will go down is what did you want him to do? He's always playing Kansas
00:51:02City or boy, this guy never stepped up to the plate when he needed to, even
00:51:06though one of those games really wasn't his fault. It was the defense's fault.
00:51:09Talk to me about legacy with these two quarterbacks win or lose in this game.
00:51:13Yeah, it's a good question, Donnie. And I think to Josh Allen, it wouldn't
00:51:17necessarily be fair. I think Lamar see some of that, too. But Lamar turned the
00:51:22ball over a couple of times in the last game. If Josh Allen plays a terrific,
00:51:26clean game and he gets outscored by the Chiefs again, uh, it's going to be a
00:51:31tough cross for him to bear, but it will be his to bear. I think a lot of times
00:51:36the public makes an assumption. Well, they have to break through at some point.
00:51:39I'm telling you, this is the wrong franchise to talk about that with
00:51:43because they never did break through in the Super Bowl, and they're having a
00:51:47tough time, obviously breaking through against a historic dynasty. They can do
00:51:52it. They've obviously beaten them, so they know how to get it done. I think
00:51:56you might see a performance from Patrick Mahomes that is a little bit better than
00:52:01what we've seen from him throughout the year where they've been playing more
00:52:04conservatively. This is his time to shine. I'm looking for a great
00:52:09quarterback performances, even though I think it'll be lower scoring. I don't
00:52:12think it's gonna be a turnover fast, boring Mahomes game like some people
00:52:16felt he was against the Texans, even though he made a spectacular play on the
00:52:21touchdown pass to Kelsey. So, legacy, you're right. Mahomes will be in a new
00:52:25stratosphere, and Allen will have to deal with how do we break through? Why
00:52:30can't we get this done? To the victor goes the spoils. To the loser, sweeping
00:52:36reactions come Sunday night and Monday morning that could define the career
00:52:41legacy for both quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes has the playoff pedigree and the
00:52:46benefit, hoping to lead Kansas City to a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance.
00:52:52Josh Allen trying to get the Bills back to the biggest of games for the first
00:52:56time in more than three decades since the 1993 NFL season. Big Blue is here for
00:53:02a second consecutive segment from the AFC title game in Arrowhead to the NFC
00:53:07championship tilt in Philadelphia. That's next on The Oil Lodge. A football Friday to
00:53:13preview in full conference championship weekend in the National Football League.
00:53:18From the AFC championship game in Arrowhead to the NFC title matchup in
00:53:23the city of brotherly love at Lincoln Financial Field. Our first of two games
00:53:28on Sunday, it's the Eagles and the Commanders. Mike Blewett here for a
00:53:32second consecutive segment, and there of course you see the odds. A six and a half
00:53:37point spread blue in favor of the Birds. A total that stands at 47 and a half.
00:53:42Familiar foes in playoff settings, the Chiefs and the Bills in the AFC title
00:53:47matchup. Familiar foes from the same division in the NFC East in the NFC
00:53:54championship game. A best of three, if you will, to decide a Perth in New
00:53:59Orleans for Super Bowl 59. What are the odds telling you, Blewett, about how the
00:54:05NFC championship game plays out on Sunday? So obviously we saw this open at
00:54:11four and a half and very quickly, excuse me, went to five and a half and
00:54:15now all the way up to nearly a touchdown. These teams have played really
00:54:21interesting games, not just versus one another, but in general. Washington and
00:54:27Philly have both played in these exciting games. Philly nearly blowing a
00:54:31huge lead last week. Washington obviously with a massive upset and people talking
00:54:36about Cliff Kingsbury and Jaden Daniels' relationship. Does it vault Cliff
00:54:40Kingsbury into another head coaching gig because he's done so well? I'm
00:54:45fascinated by it simply because I think Donnie, you would recognize this Eagles
00:54:52fans as good as they feel about the team and the fact that they've won 14 of the
00:54:57last 15 games. The way they close games out is ironically against the
00:55:04commanders, a very difficult topic. They are an awesome team and they are likely
00:55:10in my opinion going to get to the Super Bowl, but every game is a sweat as we
00:55:15get to the fourth quarter. Ironic when they have the power of the rushing
00:55:20attack that they possess. If we are looking at this game too, because you
00:55:24see the six and a half, you see the 47 and a half and we'll start here. It's
00:55:27probably the biggest talking point of this game overall, Mike. The injury to
00:55:31Jalen Hurts last week which bent his knee back and professional sports,
00:55:35they're never going to tell you how healthy the quarterback is, how banged
00:55:38up he is. Did get a full practice in yesterday. If you're looking at this
00:55:41game, how worried are you for the Philadelphia Eagles with Jalen Hurts
00:55:45accountability and also availability as we like to say in this game? Clearly
00:55:50concerned. I know he, we all know he's going to gut it out and be out there. I
00:55:54think what was more concerning towards the end of the game was not the fact
00:55:58that he couldn't rush the ball because they had moved away from that. Is that
00:56:03even in the pocket he was compromised, right? He took the safety on a play
00:56:07where normally he would probably get out of it at least enough to throw the
00:56:10ball away and he was unable to do that. I would think that would be my biggest
00:56:14concern. He's clearly an unbelievable athlete. He's known to be a tremendous
00:56:21gym rat and I think he'll be able to work through this, but you probably
00:56:25don't see the level of rushing attempts that you might otherwise see. Saquon
00:56:28Barkley's rushing attempts number is up to 24 and a half. I don't think you
00:56:32can make that thing high enough the way he's been running at the end of the
00:56:35year. So I am concerned more about his mobility within the pocket and how do
00:56:43they address that? Dallas Goddard hasn't practiced in a couple of days. Are
00:56:48Devante Smith and A. J. Brown going to be running shorter routes to get the
00:56:52ball out quick slants and those types of routes to get the ball in their hands
00:56:56quickly and move the ball down the field. Philly hasn't thrown the ball
00:56:59much at all, Donnie. So I really need to see how hurts is in the pocket. I think
00:57:03Ben has the right approach on looking at some live bets early. His rushing
00:57:09yards prop for Jalen Hurts earlier earlier this week, 29 and a half. It is
00:57:13up ever so slightly to 31 in the hook. Of course, 44 rushing yards on one
00:57:18play on the opening drive for hurts and Philadelphia last week in the
00:57:22divisional round against L. A. We'll talk Jaden Daniels in just a moment,
00:57:27but 47 and a half fluid is that total for the A. F. C. Championship game. You
00:57:32said that the chiefs are to win. It probably leans more to the under you
00:57:36favor a side where the total stands. If the game goes over, does that benefit
00:57:42X team? If the game goes under in scoring, is that a premium? Does that
00:57:46benefit another team? How do you correlate the total to who wins an NFC
00:57:51championship come Sunday? I think you guys nailed it earlier at Washington.
00:57:56Winning an under game would surprise me. I think Philly wins an under game. In
00:58:00my opinion, I think that's how this plays out. But again, if you're talking
00:58:04under 47 and a half and the Eagles at 6 and a half, you're starting to look at
00:58:12a place where you're threading the needle. It's not a huge spread, but it
00:58:16is nearly a touchdown. So the Eagles have to win a touchdown game and it
00:58:20goes under 47 and a half 27 20. Is it that high scoring? I think Philly is
00:58:26going to want to keep the ball out of Jaden Daniels hands even more than
00:58:29that. That's going to be the key to the game is those long drives from the
00:58:34Eagles. Uh, they obviously aren't going to want to rely on Jake Elliott as
00:58:38much. He's been shaky in recent weeks, hits three field goals last week, but
00:58:41misses two extra points, which did factor into the end of the game. It was
00:58:46a sweat because of that. So, uh, yeah, I think I think Washington winning an
00:58:50under game would surprise me would be the most surprising outcome. Their
00:58:55first halves this year, they played to 21 7 in the high scoring game in the
00:59:01first half. But the first matchup that the Eagles won just 73 in the first
00:59:06half. So finding a half angle is a little bit more difficult with these
00:59:10two teams, although I'd like to bet the first half over. I'll tell you, we do
00:59:14take a look at these two quarterbacks and certainly most of them can be
00:59:17dynamic. One a little bit banged up, but Jaden Daniels certainly is the
00:59:20lightning rod this week. He's been sensational in the regular season and
00:59:24even more sensational in the postseason. Now running into the
00:59:27Philadelphia Eagles on the road, your expectations. You see the numbers to 23
00:59:30and a half, 54 and a half rushing yards and one and a half touchdown passes
00:59:34your expectations for him coming into this game or what? I think I think I
00:59:39don't think he'll have a blow up game either way, Donny. I don't think it's a
00:59:43miserable performance, but I don't think he has the electric performance
00:59:46that he has against the Lions because I think the Eagles will do their best and
00:59:50successfully keep him off the field. The passing yards. I think that's
00:59:55possible. The rushing yards, he can, he can hit an explosive play at any time,
01:00:00but 15 carries or something like that for Daniels. I don't see that
01:00:05happening. Philly will limit the amount of time he has the ball. The passing
01:00:09yards over. I can see happening simply because I think they'll have to at some
01:00:13point throw their way back into the game in the second half. Well over this
01:00:18passing yards prompt for Jaden Daniels in each of his two career playoff games
01:00:23to 68 against Tampa, nearly 300 against Detroit. Plenty more from the NFC
01:00:29championship game. NFC championship game preview continues live right here
01:00:35in a football friday on the early line. Ben Stevens, Mike Fluitt and Donny
01:00:39right side continue to get you set for conference championship weekend. Now
01:00:44let's go from the quarterbacks blue to the one. They only say Kwon Barkley. We
01:00:50can see from the props what the burden is expected for Barkley on sunday to
01:00:55lead the birds to a super bowl bid. Just how good will say Kwon Barkley be
01:01:02against the commander's defense come sunday afternoon. I think Giants fans
01:01:07will be crying in their beer on sunday afternoon while they're watching me and
01:01:12Joe Rainieri because he's going to, I think he brings it again. I think it
01:01:16was spectacular obviously against the rams. I think they're going to lean on
01:01:20him and there were moments when the rams were selling out completely and
01:01:25stopping him and it didn't matter because eventually he broke through, he
01:01:29broke through in two on two, two different plays and if you had his
01:01:35first quarter or his explosive play numbers, you were good to go. I think
01:01:39it's that kind of game for him again. I'm not saying over 200 yards, but I
01:01:44think this is an over contest with, we can, we were just talking about Jalen
01:01:48hurts and betting some of his over props early in the game to take to use
01:01:54some leverage here because the numbers are lower. But I think say Kwon, you
01:01:58can expect a drumbeat of him carrying the ball. This is no Kenneth gain. Well,
01:02:03let's work him in. No, this is a Kwon all day. He's hit this number
01:02:08consistently on the over for rushing attempts in the games where they really
01:02:13need it. I'll tell you what's interesting. Mike is as you look back
01:02:16at the season and the minute they lost to Washington, I already had the rest
01:02:19of the season sort of played out here. Eagles would win, they would get their
01:02:22number two seed, but they would have the ability to rest in week 18. Saquon
01:02:26Barkley for a playoff run because if you remember if they did win that game
01:02:30in Washington where Devonta smith catches one simple pass over the
01:02:33middle, they would have went full gas against the final game of the season
01:02:37giants and he would have probably ran 25 more calories. They held him out.
01:02:40He's looked unbelievably fresh in this playoff run. That is going to be a man
01:02:44by the way. 1 25 and a half. Is anybody out there actually betting this going
01:02:47to themselves? You know what? Ah, I'm gonna just take the under automatic
01:02:51like he can't get 1 25. It's insanity. It's that high. But let's flip it over
01:02:55to the other side because we can include also mike jayden daniels into
01:02:58the equation because he is going to run the football quite a bit. And by the
01:03:02way, price as the favorite to lead the Washington commanders in rushing at
01:03:0654.5. But what are you getting out of brian robinson jr. And more
01:03:09importantly, out of austin eclair in your mind this week, mike was crazy. Is
01:03:14that of all the guys that played in that Washington Detroit game, brian
01:03:18robinson would have been well down the list of people you expect to score two
01:03:21touchdowns, but yet he did it. They did utilize him in a pretty significant
01:03:27way. Uh, them running the ball from running backs has not been their
01:03:32strongest suit, but it's been pretty consistent. Kingsbury has really dialed
01:03:37up a lot of situations for them to be successful. I think they will probably
01:03:42end up leaning on eclair in a passing game a little bit more. This philly
01:03:46defensive front is a lot to deal with. That's the, that's a could be a
01:03:50potential mismatch that flips this game. Uh, the 36 30 lost to me is frankly a
01:03:57little bit more of an anomaly than how I expect this game to play out. Uh, and
01:04:03I think you can get a little bit out of these guys, but they'd be down the list
01:04:06on it for me on betting overs. I think eclair in the passing game is where
01:04:10you'd want to attack philly as opposed to running the ball into the teeth of
01:04:13the defense. 15 carries 77 yards, two touchdowns for brian robinson jr. Last
01:04:19week in Detroit, jane and daniel still more carries though, 16 in total blew
01:04:24it. Let's talk a couple of the top targets on sunday afternoon. So many on
01:04:30this list, terry mccorran, a record setting year for him in his career.
01:04:34Deami brown has become a spark plug for this Washington aerial attack. A. J.
01:04:40Brown has not done much so far this postseason outside of reed. If you were
01:04:45to look at one of these props, what gets your attention on sunday?
01:04:49You know, what's crazy of this list is I think Zach hurts. His numbers are
01:04:54too low. I think jayden daniel is going to have to use him as a safety valve
01:04:58and I could see zach earths hitting some overs here. Philly linebacker
01:05:02zach bond in particular has been great at creating pressure and creating
01:05:07negative plays. But I think it's a little bit of a soft spot of the
01:05:10defense when it comes to passing. I like mcclaurin as well. The philly wide
01:05:14receivers, I would be more inclined to take davante smith because the numbers
01:05:18are lower. They've been a difficult duo to bet on. They're not hitting
01:05:22these numbers consistently because a kwan is carrying the ball 30 times 29
01:05:2631 25 and 26 carries for saquon. That does not include the passes that he's
01:05:31catching. It's an overwhelming target share and carry share from saquon. So
01:05:37terry mcclaurin would be the guy of the wide receivers that I like best
01:05:41my fluid. We will see you on sports grid on sunday for those conference
01:05:46championship matchups. Have a great weekend until then. Our three of the
01:05:50early line. We welcome you to our number three, our third and final
01:05:54before we enter conference championship weekend in the National Football League.
01:05:59He is donny right side. I am ben stevens. We are here together for one
01:06:04more hour to continue to set the stage and preview both of our conference
01:06:09title matchups for sunday nfc championship game between the eagles
01:06:14and the commanders who earns a spot in Super Bowl 59 in the big easy. Same
01:06:20question for the bills and the chiefs on sunday evening inside arrowhead in
01:06:25Kansas City. Drs will continue to break down the games. We'll look at the
01:06:29numbers and where those markets are and of course we'll give you a conference
01:06:34championship sunday pick six slightly different because there's not as many
01:06:39options, but we'll have some fun to end out this hour with best bets
01:06:44entering the weekend. Yes, we get minutes closer to the kickoffs on
01:06:49sunday afternoon, which is what we've been setting the table for at the
01:06:52sports grid network all week long. It will finally come to fruition. You get
01:06:56to see these titanic games play out, win your bets, lose your bets, cry in
01:07:00your beer, cheer in celebration at your team's victory and then we wait two
01:07:04weeks until the Super Bowl. So we got a big hour to get the people ready for
01:07:08anticipation of what they need to expect on sunday afternoon. And of
01:07:12course, Donny right side will be live alongside Kevin Walsh and Jolici on
01:07:16sunday for pro football today. New times, right? Nine to noon. If I'm not
01:07:22mistaken, nine a.m. To 12. Yeah, nine a little earlier on the home a little
01:07:27earlier. Yeah, come on. You ready? No weather to contend with in south jersey
01:07:32philadelphia this weekend just to stop it. Whatever pizza joint Drs wants to
01:07:38hate states get a pie. Yeah, you're gonna be ready to go again. Question
01:07:43needs to be asked. Wife and the kiddo, they're gonna be watching the game with
01:07:47you on sunday. Are you down in the bunker getting ready to go for the
01:07:50birds? Yeah, no, I'll be down in the bunker, but sometimes they'll mosey on
01:07:54down, but they understand what the game play. Usually it ends up like this, the
01:07:58wife and the kid or in the family room watching the game upstairs. I'm down in
01:08:02the bunker watching the game and then it sort of figures into the kid might
01:08:06stay on the second level. The wife then migrates to the bedroom and watches the
01:08:09game. I watch on the lower. So we have all three levels involved with the
01:08:12philadelphia eagles and just a matter of how good the eagles are doing. Do I
01:08:16travel all the way up to the bedroom just to tell the wife, did you see that
01:08:19play? Knowing she probably didn't see that play, but I want to make sure she
01:08:22thinks she saw that play. I love that nobody spends any time with anybody
01:08:28except for a couple of commercial breaks. We'll talk about a, I get it.
01:08:32Listen, I do get it and D. R. S. There is the handicaps that we have for
01:08:37sunday. They're the best bets in the pics that we will make in the wagers.
01:08:41We will bet there is also what we want to see and I understand it right. Part
01:08:46of the conversation about the chiefs dynastic run. Oh, it's fun to start to
01:08:51look at an elite team playing at an elite level year in year out and then
01:08:56it becomes all right. We've seen enough of this already. Seven consecutive
01:08:59years in an A. F. C. Championship game. Can we get the buffalo bills to a
01:09:03super bowl and to have bills mafia take over the big easy for the first time
01:09:08in more than three decades would be buffalo play in a super bowl game. It
01:09:12would be fun to see the rookie quarterback jayden daniels make history.
01:09:16We just saw the eagles and the chiefs two years ago. We don't want to see it
01:09:20again, right? So what do the people want for our super bowl matchup in super
01:09:25bowl 59? We find out together and fade the public.
01:09:30It's time for fade the public. All right, that's got to come to a close.
01:09:37We love you but that intel is done. A lot of intel coming from him. No doubt
01:09:43about it for sunday and again donny, that would be the betting perspective,
01:09:47right? What is the smart play? Do you think you have an edge on the spread,
01:09:51the money line, the total, whatever it might be. And then there is what we
01:09:55want to see in the public is making it pretty clear. They want to see
01:10:00something we have not in a very long time. The commanders are playing in
01:10:06their first conference championship game since 1991. Of course, they want
01:10:10a super bowl that season. The bills have not reached a super bowl since
01:10:151993. We're talking more than three decades for both franchises. So nearly
01:10:2153% of the public saying, yeah, we want buffalo and Washington in new
01:10:29Orleans in just two weekends. Bill's eagles 27.5. The game the public does
01:10:36not want to see was super bowl 57, which is what we saw a couple of years
01:10:41ago in phoenix, the chiefs and the eagles, only 8.2% of the vote. But
01:10:46really, the public just doesn't want to see Kansas City back in yet another
01:10:51Super Bowl matchup. Yeah, and I agree. I mean, that's really the prevailing
01:10:55notion, even if the networks would want to see it because the one thing that
01:10:58the commander, excuse me, the chiefs have over everybody is they're going to
01:11:00have the swifties, they'll tune in and watch the football game, which is
01:11:03always good for the ratings. But also number two, we love to see dynasties
01:11:06fall like you might want to cheer for the dynasty and be a fan of an equal
01:11:09amounts of people want to see the dynasty fall, which would be the
01:11:12Kansas City Chiefs. But also understand this from a bills perspective, it's
01:11:15like nightmare fuel for them. He said, Why would that be? If you remember
01:11:19that run to four straight Super Bowls back in the day, and you're gonna say,
01:11:23all right, hey, bills, you're gonna face an NFC East team. They like, come
01:11:27on, man, we're all in four against the NFC when we get to the Super Bowl,
01:11:31which is what they were in the early nineties. And no matter what, you're
01:11:34gonna have an NFC East team, whether it be the bills or the commanders lining
01:11:37up here in the Super Bowl. But for me, of course, I'm gonna vote for Eagles
01:11:40bills. It's fun. It's exciting. My team is there. You see the bills commanders
01:11:44get the 52% because people just like things. You know what? Also, there's a
01:11:47lot of people that say I just hate the Philadelphia Eagles because outside of
01:11:50other other commanders fans now because it's like been like 25 years where you
01:11:55never ran into a commander's fan anywhere. And now all of a sudden the
01:11:58commanders in the Super Bowls were led to believe. I just think the people
01:12:01want to see the bills, which I agree with. It's a fun new brand, and it's
01:12:04two weeks of not talking about. Can Andy Reid and Patrick Holmes win a Super
01:12:08Bowl? It seems like that they're every single year. So I understand the people
01:12:11with the newness, and I get the way this polls go.
01:12:15It would be a great atmosphere to have bills. Mafia make their way to the big
01:12:19easy. That would be an electric atmosphere. No doubt about it. I really
01:12:23do think it's a fade of the chiefs in terms of public sentiment. Everybody
01:12:28would want to see Kansas City sit at home and watch a Super Bowl right
01:12:31alongside taking the commercials and eat some wings. But again, when you look
01:12:37at what is most likely to happen, Chiefs Eagles is still that betting
01:12:41favorite plus 1 45. A rematch of Super Bowl 57 just two years later in Super
01:12:47Bowl 59. But it's only a point and a half in favor of KC and about a quarter
01:12:54of difference on the money line. So the Eagles and the bills not all that far
01:12:58behind. If the commanders would have pulled the upset in the NFC
01:13:01championship game, that's where you get the big plus money prices. And Donnie,
01:13:06it does go to say that the Super Bowl 59 favorite entering this conference
01:13:11championship weekend is not Kansas City. It's not Buffalo. It's the team out of
01:13:16the NFC that is nearly a touchdown favorite at home. It's the Philadelphia
01:13:20Eagles.
01:13:21It's simple. Just paint by numbers right now. You're looking at the team
01:13:24that's most likely to advance. It is the Philadelphia Eagles. Therefore, in
01:13:27order to win a Super Bowl, Ben, what you have to do, you gotta at least get
01:13:30there. So that's why the price points are set up that way. Then they'll fall
01:13:33back once we actually get the Super Bowl. If it's the Eagles, they'll go to
01:13:36that slight underdog minus 11 and a half, depending on injuries that
01:13:40happened in the NFC and AFC championship games. But that's the way
01:13:43it's going to play out. And for me again, if the Eagles lose, it will be
01:13:45devastating. But Washington being in the Super Bowl will be fun to see
01:13:49because a rookie quarterback obviously is probably have an electric game in
01:13:53Philadelphia. If they're able to upset them, that'll be a fun talking point
01:13:56and specifically if it's lined up against the Buffalo Bills. But I think
01:14:00everybody once again would then unite in the Super Bowl by saying, please
01:14:04just not the Chiefs again winning. So I think anybody that plays the Chiefs
01:14:09will probably be the public favorite just by default at that point.
01:14:13The Eagles would be a slight favorite against both or a slight underdog
01:14:17rather against both Buffalo and Kansas City point and a half in money line
01:14:21prices. Very reminiscent of what we have seen in the division around for
01:14:25Buffalo and Baltimore and now in conference championship Sunday between
01:14:29the Chiefs and the Bills. What is really interesting DRS Casey, a slight
01:14:33favorite in Arrowhead, a slightly better price to win a Lombardi trophy
01:14:37this year than Buffalo. But Buffalo, a slightly larger favorite against
01:14:41Philadelphia than that of Kansas City against the birds. Again, we're talking
01:14:44about six cents on the money line, but Buffalo minus 1 24 KC minus 1 18. And I
01:14:52do believe it is worth betting Philly right now to win Super Bowl 59. If you
01:14:58think they have the edge against the commanders because you'll have a decent
01:15:02money line price for New Orleans.