00:00And a couple of things, John.
00:01Our initial thought was the way that dip in the jet stream was coming.
00:05We were a little worried it could be in the southwest Atlantic.
00:08So that's why we had a big area.
00:10And then we refined that zone more into the Gulf of Mexico.
00:14And it's important to note, I believe the 18th was on Tuesday when we went with that
00:18high risk.
00:20National Hurricane Center went with a high risk as well, but not until I believe it was
00:25Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening.
00:28And our concern was we wanted to give everybody enough notice because homegrown development
00:33means you have less time to get ready.
00:37That's the key point.
00:38And that's what we're always focused on here at Active Weather is giving you the best information
00:41so that you can make the best decisions to keep you and your family safer.
00:46We always share what we know.
00:47And Bernie, as you as we saw in the video, we had very serious concerns about this pattern
00:52setting up weeks ago ahead of all other sources.
00:55And that's what we communicated.
00:57John, a quick timeline, strengthening in the storm on Tuesday, rapid intensification, intensification
01:03to a major hurricane Wednesday in the Gulf of Mexico, landfalls, a major hurricane in
01:08Florida.
01:09We are targeting right now the Big Bend area as landfall.
01:14We'll talk about the landfall here in a second.
01:17Let's talk about where we are right now, John.
01:19Well, we can see on the satellite loop, we have lots of thunderstorms developing, especially
01:24on the eastern side of the storm.
01:26It's a little bit lopsided right now.
01:28Notice there's a lot more thunderstorm activity indicated in those reds and oranges, tall
01:32thunderstorm clouds on the east side of the storm versus the west.
01:36It's getting a little bit of wind shear to the west.
01:38We expect that that will abate, though.
01:40And today's going to be a big day for this tropical rainstorm because we expect it's
01:45going to intensify into a tropical storm here through the day today.
01:50And then into the Gulf of Mexico.
01:51And then things get a little more concerning as we move forward.
01:55John, I want to show you the water vapor loop, because the one thing we've been noting,
01:59we noted this yesterday, there was a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and dry air
02:03can prevent tropical systems from developing.
02:07But what we thought would happen is, is that instead of that dry air coming into the center
02:11of circulation, it would get pushed away.
02:15And boy, that looks like that's the right call, given what we're looking at right now.
02:20That's exactly what it looks like.
02:21It's doing it.
02:22It's interesting.
02:23That's the first thing I looked at this morning when I started analyzing the situation, the
02:27water vapor loop, to see if that moisture was being drawn to the north.
02:31And look at the blue colors being drawn, green colors being drawn north into the Gulf of
02:36Mexico.
02:37So that's the area where there's less wind shear.
02:38And it looks like, as we expected, that that moisture is coming along with the storm.
02:43One thing I've also noticed, and this was pointed out by Alex De Silva, and you can
02:46see it.
02:47Look at that arcing band of moisture toward the Florida Keys.
02:51And you know what?
02:52It's arcing in a clockwise rotation.
02:56And that tells you you have good outflow as this gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
03:01So that's two out of the three ingredients we need, increasing moisture, lowering wind
03:07shear.
03:08And, you know, John, the water temperatures have already always been warm.
03:12This is one product we look at.
03:14Yeah, this isn't even close of a concern here.
03:16This water is, in some cases, record warmth, running four to six degrees above the long-term
03:23historic average.
03:24It's not only right at the sea surface, as you see in this plot, but it's also deep,
03:29several hundred feet deep in the Gulf of Mexico in some locations.
03:33And it looks like, look at the track of the storm, it's going to go right over the deepest
03:37water with the highest temperature and a little loop current, as we call it.
03:42And that's why we're expecting this storm to rapidly intensify.
03:46And when storms do that, that's when they bring even greater impacts.
03:50That's why we're concerned about the storm surge, about the damaging wind and the rain
03:54potential.
03:55And when you look at our eye path, John, now, listen, I'm going to tell everybody, you and
03:58I disagree just a little bit on this eye path.
04:00And this is and this is where conflict is good.
04:05I'm worried it's a little farther west, just the shade toward Apalachicola and maybe as
04:12far west as Panama City Beach.
04:15You're worried that it could be a little farther down the coast in Florida, just north of Tampa.
04:20Yeah, I'm a little worried it could be a little bit further east.
04:23But see, Bernie, this is the point.
04:25This is why the power of active weather with our team of over 100 expert meteorologists
04:30debating, having these kinds of debates like you and I just did.
04:33And that's why we have a window of movement.
04:35So don't focus only on that center track line.
04:38Of course, that's important.
04:40But notice the left and right side of that window.
04:42We we are making a decision about where we're going to put those left and right boundaries
04:47to indicate where the storm could be located at a time to communicate the uncertainty as
04:51we get closer and closer.
04:53And once the storm actually develops a low level center, we'll be able to shrink that
04:57window of movement.
04:58So we'll be more confident about exactly where it's headed.
05:01That's why you need to be prepared on the west coast of Florida, all the way up toward
05:05up portions of the Mississippi coast and be checking with active weather more frequently
05:09than usual.
05:10Yeah, you and I made the decision.
05:11Let's wait until Tuesday afternoon.
05:13And I think we're going to wait until this afternoon to make that a little smaller, be
05:17on the safe side.
05:18All right.
05:19Accuweather chief meteorologist John Porter.
05:20John, thanks for joining us here today on Accuweather Early.
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