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00:00 Welcome back to C2DA Business.
00:04 Exciting times for crypto investors as we get closer to the next Bitcoin halving event.
00:09 It is crucial for both investors and crypto enthusiasts to know the details of this fundamental
00:14 aspect of Bitcoin's protocol.
00:16 Scheduled for mid-April 2024, the Bitcoin halving holds significant implications for
00:21 the crypto market as a whole.
00:24 Historically, the Bitcoin halving events have catalyzed significant price surges in the
00:29 crypto market.
00:30 The anticipation of reduced new supply following a halving event can trigger speculative activity
00:35 and drive up demand for Bitcoin.
00:38 This event, coupled with ongoing market trends and other factors such as adoption rates and
00:42 regulatory developments, can influence market dynamics significantly.
00:48 Indonesia reported a surge in crypto transactions reaching 30 trillion rupiah or around 1.92
00:53 billion US dollars in February 2024.
00:57 Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Supervisory Agency or BAPEPD shows that the number of
01:02 registered crypto investors also hit 19 million, marking an addition of 170,000 users from
01:08 January.
01:09 BAPEPD attributes this growth to positive market sentiment triggered by the surge in
01:14 the price of Bitcoin and the rally of altcoins, tokens other than Bitcoin.
01:20 To delve more into this topic, joining me today in the studio is Celios Digital Economy
01:26 Director Nailul Huda.
01:28 Thank you so much for joining us in the C2day Business Studio.
01:32 So let's start.
01:34 First thing is first, explain to us what is Bitcoin halving?
01:38 How does it work?
01:39 Yeah, Bitcoin halving is an event that halves the reward for the miners on the blockchain
01:46 ecosystem.
01:49 So the miners, if they're mining in Bitcoin blockchain, they get the rewards.
01:58 And the event cuts off the rewards half.
02:04 So but it cuts, does it cut the supply by half as well?
02:09 Yeah, if they solve the block in Bitcoin blockchain ecosystem, they had the reward.
02:18 And in 2009, the reward is 50 Bitcoin.
02:25 In every four years, the reward cut off half.
02:30 In 2012, it becomes 25.
02:35 In 2016, it becomes 12.5.
02:42 And in this year, it will be 3.125 Bitcoin in every block they solve.
02:57 So automatically the supply would go down as well?
03:00 Yeah.
03:01 And make the supply of Bitcoin is more fewer than the last year.
03:11 Okay, right.
03:12 So let's talk about what could happen this year.
03:17 First of all, the expectation is April the 20th for the halving.
03:21 Is that correct?
03:22 Yeah.
03:23 Okay.
03:24 All right.
03:25 So, I mean, let's talk about what happened before in the previous halvings.
03:30 In the third Bitcoin halving, which took place in May 2022, the price rose in about 10 months'
03:35 time from 8,700 to 60,000 US dollars for Bitcoin.
03:41 In 2016, halving Bitcoin's price doubled within 10 months.
03:46 What are we going to see this year?
03:47 Yeah, I must read the data.
03:50 Sure, go ahead.
03:51 So in 2012, it increased, I think, more than 1,000%.
04:02 In 180 days.
04:06 So in one semester, it increased more than 1,000%.
04:18 Between 2019 and 2020, it happened too.
04:26 So the increase of Bitcoin is higher and higher.
04:30 But I think in 2020, there are several factors, external and internal factors, that make the
04:40 price of Bitcoin higher and higher.
04:44 Several factors like people's interest, and then low rate regime in US, the Fed rate.
04:51 You know, the Fed rate in 2020 and 2021 is 0.25%.
05:01 So it makes the alternative investment instrument like Bitcoin is higher demand.
05:11 So I think there are several factors that this year, halving Bitcoin makes the price
05:22 of Bitcoin higher and higher.
05:24 Okay, like for example, the SEC in the US, they have approved Bitcoin.
05:30 The US sentiment is more positive this time around.
05:33 So we could probably see a significant increase, like you said, 1,000%.
05:39 Because today, we face the uncertainty economic condition.
05:46 And today, the low rate regime is over.
05:51 So the Fed rate is in 5.5%.
05:58 And the Indonesian BE rate is 6%, I think.
06:04 So people choose the more low-risk instrument on their investment portfolio.
06:13 Okay, right.
06:15 But what's interesting, of course, is, you know, if it does happen on the 20th of April,
06:21 it's just two days before that.
06:24 But the price of Bitcoin has been dropping, it reached the lowest point, sorry, since
06:29 early March.
06:30 And Wednesday, it went down to 59,000.
06:34 Now, it's about 61,000.
06:35 So I mean, how do you see this sort of halving effect crypto trading in Indonesia itself
06:40 after the halving event?
06:42 Or maybe even before?
06:43 Yeah, I don't know.
06:46 We all didn't predict the price of Bitcoin.
06:52 Also to other cryptocurrency, other token.
06:57 We cannot predict easily, because you know, the price is more volatile than other investment
07:05 instruments.
07:06 Okay.
07:07 So we cannot predict after halving event.
07:10 But I believe that there are several factors that have a positive impact on halving event.
07:21 Like you know, about the media and has public interest, and know about the technological
07:28 impact that make the demand of Bitcoin is higher.
07:35 But I cannot predict it is high on significantly or not.
07:42 All right, even on the number of traders and users in Indonesia transactions, you can't
07:47 really tell.
07:48 Okay, so it's difficult to predict.
07:50 Now let's talk about Indonesia.
07:52 Because according to blockchain data platform Chainalysis, the research showed that Indonesia
07:58 has the seventh highest crypto adaptability country globally, surpassing countries like
08:03 Thailand, China, Russia, and the UK.
08:05 So what's your take on this, on the crypto adapt?
08:08 Yeah.
08:09 I remember in the first of COVID, pandemic of it era.
08:17 Blockchain didn't have a significant factor on our investment portfolio.
08:26 But in pandemic era, it user transaction is higher and higher.
08:36 So I don't know, there are several factors that make that happen.
08:43 First is, you know, the adoption rate, adoption technology rate, the test savvy, young population,
08:53 middle income population, and internet penetration is the several factors that demand of Bitcoin
09:03 higher in pandemic era.
09:07 And I don't know, Indonesia is one of the countries that have regulatory on cryptocurrency.
09:16 We have a property that they regulate about the cryptocurrency investment.
09:23 And you know, it become the legal action for cryptocurrency transaction.
09:29 It providing clarity and security for user and businessman.
09:34 So it has a positive impact on the Bitcoin or cryptocurrency ecosystem, positive impact.
09:43 And the third factor is economic factor.
09:46 You know about the FOMO in Indonesia, I think in first half of pandemic COVID era, and you
09:58 know about the S6 coin, and you know about the daughter of Yusuf Mansur coin.
10:08 This is the FOMO of our people.
10:11 Our people didn't have the good literacy, but they have more FOMO than other people
10:20 in ASEAN, I think.
10:22 All right, so, you know, some positives environment in Indonesia for crypto and also with this
10:28 halving event, which could take place on the 20th of April.
10:34 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
10:35 I think halving Bitcoin event will increase demand of cryptocurrency.
10:43 But I don't know.
10:45 We cannot predict how much they will increase.
10:49 And it depends on media coverage like now.
10:51 We discuss about the media coverage of halving event.
10:55 Okay.
10:56 Mas Nayelul Huda, CILOS Digital Economy Director, thank you so much for coming to our studios
11:01 and giving us your insights on this, you know, very, possibly very exciting time for crypto
11:07 traders.
11:08 Thank you so much.
11:09 Yeah, you're welcome.
11:10 All right, we're gonna go for a break.
11:11 When we return, we'll have our daily recap from the Indonesian stock market.
11:16 Don't go anywhere.
11:17 Stay tuned to CTT Business.
11:17 Thank you.
11:23 Thank you.
11:36 you