Markets are full of predictions that cannot be checked until after the fact. Implied probability is different. It is already priced, already quantified, and therefore testable. When you translate a ...

Corporate income tax (CIT) collections are among the most difficult revenues to forecast—even with adequate staffing, comprehensive data, and a stable tax design. In practice, forecasting units ...

Over the last few years, several machine-learned weather prediction models have emerged that show a higher level of skill than traditional physics-based models in a variety of forecast scores.