There is a growing view that the U.S. business cycle has changed (for better) in a more diversified economy. To some, that sounds like tempting fate. By Talmon Joseph Smith For much of modern history, ...

Understanding the economy requires recognizing the predictable sequence of the Business Cycle, which is critical for long-term investment strategies. The EPB Four Economy Framework segments the ...

I solve for the sequences of shocks (or wedges) that allow a standard real business cycle model to exactly replicate the quarterly time paths of U.S. macroeconomic variables and asset returns since ...

Business leaders started 2020 on an optimistic note. That was the key takeaway from the Q4 2019 Vistage CEO Confidence Index, which surveyed 1,604 CEOs from small and midsize businesses. The Index ...